Average sales price SF bay Area 936k ??
Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votesAverage sales price SF bay Area 936k ??
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Ori SklootPro Member
Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2016 · 242 posts · 304 votesI don't see many answers from people who actually own property in Richmond. I own both MFH and SFD in the Iron Triangle and North Richmond areas. These are among the worst areas of Richmond and if you listen to some of the posters, some of the most dangerous place in the world. I've spent a lot of time in these area over the past 5 years, and like many places in the Bay Area they have changed a lot. 5 years ago I wouldn't dare walk alone in these areas, now I'm rehabbing a house in a "bad" part of Richmond and it's a completely different feeling. There is an open park across the street where they have community gatherings and salsa dance classes. Kids are out in the streets riding bicycles. People pass you in the street and say hello. The folks who avoid Richmond at all costs and point to statistics and news clippings probably haven't spent much time in Richmond lately.
Richmond has many, many things going for it that is bringing gentrification: proximity to a diverse pool of jobs (and not dependent on tech), infrastructure going in (Richmond ferry terminal), non-profits building affordable-housing (the good kind), old HUD and Richmond Housing Authority properties are in the long-process of being torn-down and sold off so that ugly lots and abandoned houses will eventually be revitalized.
I think @Jay Hinrichs you've got a great play. I think Richmond is going to have a similar trend as West Oakland (which by the way feels as safe to me as most parts of Richmond). You will probably be sitting on some of those North Richmond lots for a while, but if you are finding lots in South/East Richmond I think they have already gained a lot of value over the past few years. Anyone looking to buy in the Bay Area for solid cash flow and good appreciation should look at Richmond.
67 Replies
- 8yJana CainPro MemberEnrolled Agent · Richmond, CA · Member since 2016 · 225 posts · 148 votes
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
I am making a run on bare lots for future starter homes in the 300 to 500k range..We went into Charleston SC 5 plus years ago in the exact same scenarios and areas an have just crushed it.. I am not a herd investor I am a get in front of the herd and hopefully guess right :) but being born and raised there and watch what happened I have no doubt that in 20 to 30 years those will be some really solid investments.
And there's quite a bit of land to be had, particularly in north Richmond where I've learned it's technically still unincorporated. I'm pretty sure your investments will work out quite well. :-)
- Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes8ySELL!!!! Trade in rental property 1031 Exchange for 4 million Apartment complex in Midwest and replace all your after tax w2 earned income = FINANCIALLY FREE!!!! Swanny
- Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Vinay H.:
Bart or Ferry or 1h30 mins commute from SF, I think Jay is onto something ... What are crime/income/school statistics like?
Bart, Ferry, and 1:30 commute to the city are all the same... just depends who's driving haha. Crime is terrible, schools are bad, and income is low.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Originally posted by @Vinay H.:
Bart or Ferry or 1h30 mins commute from SF, I think Jay is onto something ... What are crime/income/school statistics like?
Bart, Ferry, and 1:30 commute to the city are all the same... just depends who's driving haha. Crime is terrible, schools are bad, and income is low.
about the same as many mid west cash flow markets LOL in the C class realm.
- Real Estate Agent · Cupertino, CA · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes8y
FB or Googl have not planned to move to Richmond, at least not yet. If you look at stats East Bay is fairly affordable north of Fremont. It is high tech impressive wages that bumped the home prices up. There are ample housing for lease in South Bay but the people with stock option want to live and own close to work.
Here is the approx. professional employees in SF South Bay"
1 AAPL 24,000
2. FB 17,000
3. Goog 20000+10000(down town SJ)
4 MSFT 2500
5. LinkedIn 8000
6. Amzn 2000 ? developers
7.TSLA (mostly Fremont) 10,000 mostly blue collar robot operators
8 Csco 15,700
9 Ntfx 3,000
Dropbox, Square, Adobe (3K+3K more to be hired), Salesforce, Oracle, Lyft, Uber high tech employees are excluded here..
All established companies in Semi, Bio tech etc are not mentioned. These are just some new tech companies in mostly South Bay.
- Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes8y
Idk Richmond but from I have seen the transition areas in coastal Cali are not nearly as messed up as other C areas across the country. I know a guy from Baltimore who travels using airbnb and always stays in the cheaper areas...I ask him is that not sketchy, he says these west coast C areas are a joke compared to the real C stuff in midwest and out east.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Matt R.:
Idk Richmond but from I have seen the transition areas in coastal Cali are not nearly as messed up as other C areas across the country. I know a guy from Baltimore who travels using airbnb and always stays in the cheaper areas...I ask him is that not sketchy, he says these west coast C areas are a joke compared to the real C stuff in midwest and out east.
like everywhere there are nice areas and not so nice.. the trend these days is to push the not so nice out as the land is to scarce.
with the bay area physical constraints IE water and mountains there is only so much land and if you put a pin on SF this is the least expensive real estate within 30 air mile circumference .. again maybe I am nuts but I have to think its coming.. when I don't know but its coming..
- Rental Property Investor · Campbell, CA · Member since 2017 · 419 posts · 499 votes8y
I get nervous just driving through Richmond. It’s a rat hole with horrible crime and a ton of poverty. it’s also rent controlled (which is what also keeps East Palo Alto a rat hole compared to the rest of the area).
I wouldn’t get within 10 miles of Richmond personally. It ‘might’ improve in the distant future but with California politics in play, it’s not a bet I’d make. Not to mention I value my safety.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Mike V.:
I get nervous just driving through Richmond. It’s a rat hole with horrible crime and a ton of poverty. it’s also rent controlled (which is what also keeps East Palo Alto a rat hole compared to the rest of the area).
I wouldn’t get within 10 miles of Richmond personally. It ‘might’ improve in the distant future but with California politics in play, it’s not a bet I’d make. Not to mention I value my safety.
ya I get that but if you travel to other parts of the country you will realize that Richmond is no worse than any other major metro C class.
I grew up in Cupertino in the 60s so I understand what your talking about and as its relative to were you live in bucolic Campbell.. when you relate it to other major metros Chicago Baltimore Philly LA Wa DC etc etc.. its fine.. My brother in law is a contractor there and has been for 20 years and he gets around just fine. but you take no more precaution there than you would in better parts of south side of Chicago and look whats happening there.. its booming.
- Rental Property Investor · Campbell, CA · Member since 2017 · 419 posts · 499 votes8y
I think it’s a little worse than you give it credit for.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/richmond/crime
Bottom 7% in the country in crime. People are frequently accosted for their race, sexual orientation, or just looking like you have a few dimes to your name. I lived in the east bay for several years and am very familiar with the greater Bay Area (born and raised here). I avoid Richmond at all costs personally.
Not saying you can’t make money there. There’s just so many easier areas to make it.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Mike V.:
I think it’s a little worse than you give it credit for.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/richmond/crime
Bottom 7% in the country in crime. People are frequently accosted for their race, sexual orientation, or just looking like you have a few dimes to your name. I lived in the east bay for several years and am very familiar with the greater Bay Area (born and raised here). I avoid Richmond at all costs personally.
Not saying you can’t make money there. There’s just so many easier areas to make it.
Well point taken... but I work in all those major cities I mentioned and have for 2 decades financing fix and flip and turn key.. so that's my perspective on it.. and I saw what happened with E PA personally.. but again.. who knows.. I will continue buying my lots there and just see where it goes.. keep in mind I am not a landlord I buy and build homes for people to live in.. and I think people will move to places that may not be optimum for the chance to own a home.. or they can commute in from Los Banos or Tracy or who knows where else that's how far out you would have to go to get to the same price point.. and maybe Fairfield.. Vallejo but same issues and worse commute..
Napa now is at 650k median and there are limited jobs and the commute is staggering.. I lived at Silverado for the decade of the 90s and loved it.. but boy when I go back to visit my mom who still lives there unless I want to come in through lake Berryessa the back way traffic is a night mare and forget about taking 37 to Marin county ouch.. so that was a place in time I get to cherish Napa before it became grid lock.. :)
- Rental Property Investor · Campbell, CA · Member since 2017 · 419 posts · 499 votes8y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Mike V.:
I think it’s a little worse than you give it credit for.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ca/richmond/crime
Bottom 7% in the country in crime. People are frequently accosted for their race, sexual orientation, or just looking like you have a few dimes to your name. I lived in the east bay for several years and am very familiar with the greater Bay Area (born and raised here). I avoid Richmond at all costs personally.
Not saying you can’t make money there. There’s just so many easier areas to make it.
Well point taken... but I work in all those major cities I mentioned and have for 2 decades financing fix and flip and turn key.. so that's my perspective on it.. and I saw what happened with E PA personally.. but again.. who knows.. I will continue buying my lots there and just see where it goes.. keep in mind I am not a landlord I buy and build homes for people to live in.. and I think people will move to places that may not be optimum for the chance to own a home.. or they can commute in from Los Banos or Tracy or who knows where else that's how far out you would have to go to get to the same price point.. and maybe Fairfield.. Vallejo but same issues and worse commute..
Napa now is at 650k median and there are limited jobs and the commute is staggering.. I lived at Silverado for the decade of the 90s and loved it.. but boy when I go back to visit my mom who still lives there unless I want to come in through lake Berryessa the back way traffic is a night mare and forget about taking 37 to Marin county ouch.. so that was a place in time I get to cherish Napa before it became grid lock.. :)
I totally get the angle you’re going for and trust me, I understand the pain of commuting around here.
It’s just my opinion that Richmond is no where near the cusp of any significant gentrification. The schools suck, crime sucks, the area sucks, and I don’t know any younger people that would even consider moving there even if it means affordable home ownership. You need to feel somewhere safe and think your children will get a decent education (especially in the Bay Area) and Richmond doesn’t check any of those boxes. Add private school in and it’s not much less expensive.
I have a friend that moved to Oakland in a much nicer neighborhood than anything in Richmond a few years ago. It was a tear down / rebuild and they got robbed regularly. Had their garage spray painted several times telling them to go away and they don’t belong, etc. and they ended up hating living there despite their home ownership, easier commute, and pretty amazing house.
Local politics hold these cities down and actively discourage gentrification.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Matt R.:
Sweet, if it trends up the way South LA, Inglewood and Long Beach are going than I am pretty sure you are going to be golden there too. How much are buildable lots? I am seeing new condos at 650K in Richmond.
I know a developer eyeing Inglewood.. will see how it all plays out that's for sure.
- Realtor · San Rafael · Member since 2015 · 21 posts · 2 votes8yHi there I’m an agent and I live 10 min from Richmond. I think it’s a great area to buy but there are a few spots to stay away from. Give me a call Number is on my profile. Noa Bloch Realtor with Coldwell Banker San Rafael.
- Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs so are you buying one off lots located here and there, or more of a larger development, say 10-20+ homes on one site? The former may be hit or miss. But if you’re doing small developments, then you have the benefit of creating a gentrification play yourself, as those 10-20 homes will have gravitas, and you can actually influence that location. If you’re acquiring one off lots, then parts of Oakland may gentrify faster. Not sure if there are more vacant lots in Richmond vs Oakland per capita. Usually ghettoish (or recently improved ghettos) have vacant lots because of fires that owers haven’t rebuilt on.
The other thing to look into is the amount of housing projects and low income housing tracts (they may look like suburban SFH's, but are low income) in your immediate area. I know that Richmond has become a dumping ground for relocated low income, as much of the older housing projects in SF are shutting down, and getting rebuilt, still as affordable housing, but with private management that won't tolerate riff raff. And some of that riff raff heads to Richmond.
I’ll also tag @J. Martin as he has property in Richmond...though he may be a bit checked out with his worldly travels...beaches in Thailand, pat pong, god knows where are usually not conducive to real estate analysis requiring finger on pulse awareness. But let’s try..
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Amit M.:
@Jay Hinrichs so are you buying one off lots located here and there, or more of a larger development, say 10-20+ homes on one site? The former may be hit or miss. But if you’re doing small developments, then you have the benefit of creating a gentrification play yourself, as those 10-20 homes will have gravitas, and you can actually influence that location. If you’re acquiring one off lots, then parts of Oakland may gentrify faster. Not sure if there are more vacant lots in Richmond vs Oakland per capita. Usually ghettoish (or recently improved ghettos) have vacant lots because of fires that owers haven’t rebuilt on.
The other thing to look into is the amount of housing projects and low income housing tracts (they may look like suburban SFH's, but are low income) in your immediate area. I know that Richmond has become a dumping ground for relocated low income, as much of the older housing projects in SF are shutting down, and getting rebuilt, still as affordable housing, but with private management that won't tolerate riff raff. And some of that riff raff heads to Richmond.
I’ll also tag @J. Martin as he has property in Richmond...though he may be a bit checked out with his worldly travels...beaches in Thailand, pat pong, god knows where are usually not conducive to real estate analysis requiring finger on pulse awareness. But let’s try..
for now spot lots and most folks would say I am nuts.. but then again people said that about me when I went into the worst part of Charleston SC 6 years ago now... but for me I am a land banker from way back.. I am cool with buying something I perceive to be a good value and just sitting on it.. like that property I bought up in Rohnert Park next to the Graton Casino in 1995.... its only been 24 years but return on investment on that one will be literally 100 times what I paid for it.. and it cost me 300 a year in tax's and money that was pocket change to buy.. now granted what I do most wont as they need monthly income but I make monthly income in my real estate business and have basically zero income from rentals.. I don't need rentals.. so its a different angle and I understand this is a landlord site.. but I just got to think they aint making anymore land in the bay area and where is the cheapest buildable dirt that you can walk in with house plans and pull a permit.. that's Richmond and maybe parts of Oak town.
- Rental Property Investor · Campbell, CA · Member since 2017 · 419 posts · 499 votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs, have you considered going the other direction just past San Jose? A lot of tech companies are in the South Bay so places like Morgan Hill, San Martin, Gilroy will likely have the same (or more) growth since it’s also a much nicer area to live.
Piggy back that with BARTs planned expansion to south San Jose, and Googles Mega Campus in the next few years, it would be a pretty safe assumption that people will head that direction.
I’ve already noticed they effect here in Campbell... my primary residence is going up about 50-75k a month in value.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Mike V.:
@Jay Hinrichs, have you considered going the other direction just past San Jose? A lot of tech companies are in the South Bay so places like Morgan Hill, San Martin, Gilroy will likely have the same (or more) growth since it’s also a much nicer area to live.
Piggy back that with BARTs planned expansion to south San Jose, and Googles Mega Campus in the next few years, it would be a pretty safe assumption that people will head that direction.
I’ve already noticed they effect here in Campbell... my primary residence is going up about 50-75k a month in value.
not really.... I just like the cheap dirt.. set it forget it.. to buy in those areas are all going to be million dollar or so purchases and for that I can play here in Portland or in Charleston and the ( especisally in Charleston) governmental approvals are more certain and quicker by a huge factor.. CA is a tough place to develop.. in Richmond I am only going to and have bought lots that I can build on tomorrow by simply walking in with a house plan and buying a permit..
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Jesse C.:
Richmond area has the issue of oil refineries and environmental air pollution (that is noticeable when outside). This keeps a lid on prices.
but also provides jobs.. no perfect scenario.. anyone ever checked out Point Richmond that's a uber cute little berg. !!!
- Flipper/Rehabber · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 732 votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs , I'm not from the Bay area, I've visited SF,Oakland,Napa,etc many times but not Richmond.
Just saw an article the other day about people looking out to Sacramento to buy homes which is much further from the SF bay of course versus Richmond.
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article21247998...
Seems to be a good bet that people will still want to remain in the Bay area long term like you are saying and they aren't making more land.
Since the city of L.A is now pretty much all built out, I've been thinking eventually areas in the Antelope Valley will start to get more developed. Lancaster/Palmdale areas are still in L.A county. Land there right now is dirt cheap while a small lot in L.A is going to be $500k or more. Also there is already a lot of existing and new development coming to the Santa Clarita Valley..not sure if you have heard of the Newhall Ranch development.. it is a $12 billion or so 21,500 home development which has been recently approved after decades of controversy and lawsuits.
It is the largest subdivision project in the nation supposedly .
https://www.dailynews.com/2017/09/25/tremendous-ne...
Santa Clarita Valley isn't too far from the Antelope Valley area.
Curious if you've looked at land in this area at all or what your thoughts are. I could see how it might sound crazy. But even the idea of L.A becoming a major city was also crazy at one point not too long ago.
Also I believe that while the trend is to go more dense there will still be demand for those that want newer single family homes and little piece of land/yard.
- Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Joseph M.:
@Jay Hinrichs , I'm not from the Bay area, I've visited SF,Oakland,Napa,etc many times but not Richmond.
Just saw an article the other day about people looking out to Sacramento to buy homes which is much further from the SF bay of course versus Richmond.
https://www.sacbee.com/latest-news/article21247998...
Seems to be a good bet that people will still want to remain in the Bay area long term like you are saying and they aren't making more land.
Since the city of L.A is now pretty much all built out, I've been thinking eventually areas in the Antelope Valley will start to get more developed. Lancaster/Palmdale areas are still in L.A county. Land there right now is dirt cheap while a small lot in L.A is going to be $500k or more. Also there is already a lot of existing and new development coming to the Santa Clarita Valley..not sure if you have heard of the Newhall Ranch development.. it is a $12 billion or so 21,500 home development which has been recently approved after decades of controversy and lawsuits.
It is the largest subdivision project in the nation supposedly .
https://www.dailynews.com/2017/09/25/tremendous-ne...
Santa Clarita Valley isn't too far from the Antelope Valley area.
Curious if you've looked at land in this area at all or what your thoughts are. I could see how it might sound crazy. But even the idea of L.A becoming a major city was also crazy at one point not too long ago.
Also I believe that while the trend is to go more dense there will still be demand for those that want newer single family homes and little piece of land/yard.
I have not personally I am very aware of the palmdale Lancaster areas as those were platted in the 20s and have been bought sold traded lost at tax sale bought at tax sale for decades and decades..
Newhall ranch sounds exciting.. wow.
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