Average sales price SF bay Area 936k ??

67 Replies | San Francisco, California

I saw a TV show talking about the average sales price in the Bay area at 936k  along with some tear downs in Freemont selling for 1.1 to 1.3  it was crazy even for someone like me who bought their first home in the late 70s in Milpitas for 79k and it was a new construction Shapel home  LOL.

So I have to think back to E. Palo Alto and in those same years I was buying foreclosures there for 12 to 20k and flipping them making 5k a home and thought I was the smartest guy on the planet.. 

Now I have started to buy in Richmond I cant for the life of me understand why there is not more talk about Richmond were you can buy at 1/3 the market value of the rest of the bay area and it can be re gentrified and fixed up.. Just like E PA and parts of Oakland etc.

with the new Ferry the proximity to jobs  Seems like a no brainer to get ahead of the curve or the herd as it were ?   big money is made in path of progress ??? at least that's my thinking... anyone agree or you think I am nuts.

The Billion dollar question...  "Is this a place where Jay Hinrichs would be willing to be a landlord so he can use a buy and hold strategy?"

Here's my concern and the logic to back it up....

Many people have literally nothing in savings and while they may or may not have a good job they're basically paychek to paycheck. Many people have also gone all in on the house purchase....

Now here's the concern, what happens when they get sick, fired, go postal over the commute? So many of these studio or 1 bd places it's not like they can get roomamates to float the mortgage. 

Living paychek to paycheck sucks and it's a balancing act not many can hang on to long term...

Originally posted by @Michael Biggs:

The Billion dollar question...  "Is this a place where Jay Hinrichs would be willing to be a landlord so he can use a buy and hold strategy?"

you know me I am only buying vacant lots..   for future builds.. :)  

Richmond is lagging to the rest of the Bay Area in terms of gentrification.  Which may a be a good thing as it keeps prices down for investment money.  South Richmond is where the money is going and hopefully it migrates up north. The freeway 80 commute is horrid almost throughout the day but there is BART.

Vallejo is also a nice market, slightly better neighborhoods and abit more development money near the Ferry areas.  Oakland is going full steam through it's gentrification/redevelopment phase.  

Looking for 10+ unit MF in these areas but sellers know it's a hot market and priced their properties accordingly.

Originally posted by @Paul Choi :

Richmond is lagging to the rest of the Bay Area in terms of gentrification.  Which may a be a good thing as it keeps prices down for investment money.  South Richmond is where the money is going and hopefully it migrates up north. The freeway 80 commute is horrid almost throughout the day but there is BART.

Vallejo is also a nice market, slightly better neighborhoods and abit more development money near the Ferry areas.  Oakland is going full steam through it's gentrification/redevelopment phase.  

Looking for 10+ unit MF in these areas but sellers know it's a hot market and priced their properties accordingly.

 I just look at E  PA when I lived in PA  you could hardly drive in there safely.. now look at it.. ???

Richmond is a solid investment city. A lot of people from DC are hearing about it and trying to get in the market and running up prices, but there are still some great pockets. There are a couple other cities like Richmond along the east coast, investment wise, that I have been buying in. Hit me up if you want to chat about that. Also, I know a couple vacant lots in the city that are prime for adding inventory if you are interested.

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :
Originally posted by @Paul Choi:

Richmond is lagging to the rest of the Bay Area in terms of gentrification.  Which may a be a good thing as it keeps prices down for investment money.  South Richmond is where the money is going and hopefully it migrates up north. The freeway 80 commute is horrid almost throughout the day but there is BART.

Vallejo is also a nice market, slightly better neighborhoods and abit more development money near the Ferry areas.  Oakland is going full steam through it's gentrification/redevelopment phase.  

Looking for 10+ unit MF in these areas but sellers know it's a hot market and priced their properties accordingly.

 I just look at E  PA when I lived in PA  you could hardly drive in there safely.. now look at it.. ???

 LOL very true!

Unless some big tech companies with deep pockets move to Richmond, I don't see the same thing happening like it did at Palo Alto.  but then again, you never know.  Same is happening in Oakland.  Couldn't drive through some neighborhoods but now they are lined with flipped houses and companies are relocating to Oakland to lower costs.  At my day job, I work with some of the largest developers in the commercial space and it's interesting to see where they invest their money.

Originally posted by @Thomas Giordano :

Richmond is a solid investment city. A lot of people from DC are hearing about it and trying to get in the market and running up prices, but there are still some great pockets. There are a couple other cities like Richmond along the east coast, investment wise, that I have been buying in. Hit me up if you want to chat about that. Also, I know a couple vacant lots in the city that are prime for adding inventory if you are interested.

 we are talking about Richmond California  LOL  you mark my words over the next 20 years there are going to be fortunes made there just like other areas of the bay areas that flip flopped from tough to in vogue. 

Originally posted by @Thomas Giordano :

Richmond is a solid investment city. A lot of people from DC are hearing about it and trying to get in the market and running up prices, but there are still some great pockets. There are a couple other cities like Richmond along the east coast, investment wise, that I have been buying in. Hit me up if you want to chat about that. Also, I know a couple vacant lots in the city that are prime for adding inventory if you are interested.

 Hi Thomas - we're referring to Richmond, CA, which is just northeast of San Francisco.

Richmond is cheap, but there is almost no corporate expansion north of Berkeley (mostly due to traffic nightmares)- whereas you can buy in Oakland (obviously lots of cheap stuff there)- and benefit from high walk scores and tech moving in.  People dwell on the fact that Uber pulled out of Oakland, but that had more to do with internal strife at Uber.    Richmond isn't the only ungentrified place in the bay area.


For those that haven't lived in the bay area for 10 years or more, *traffic* is much more of a determinant for gentrification than it used to be.  You simply can't get around anymore, and all bridge tolls are rising to $9 in the next few years.

Seems like a winning “forced appreciation” situation, barring any unforeseen systematic recession. People have to live somewhere and the reasons given for “a new hip gentrifying area” is in reality often just a rationalization for finding an local and affordable spot

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :
Originally posted by @Paul Choi:

Richmond is lagging to the rest of the Bay Area in terms of gentrification.  Which may a be a good thing as it keeps prices down for investment money.  South Richmond is where the money is going and hopefully it migrates up north. The freeway 80 commute is horrid almost throughout the day but there is BART.

Vallejo is also a nice market, slightly better neighborhoods and abit more development money near the Ferry areas.  Oakland is going full steam through it's gentrification/redevelopment phase.  

Looking for 10+ unit MF in these areas but sellers know it's a hot market and priced their properties accordingly.

 I just look at E  PA when I lived in PA  you could hardly drive in there safely.. now look at it.. ???

 I think that entire area is an outlier, to me the reasons for the big money is the proximity to the big money jobs. Traffic sucks, has sucked, and will only get worse.... luxury tax to not spend your entire life stuck in a commute and then crank out insane hours at the office.

Originally posted by @Michelle Harris :

Richmond is cheap, but there is almost no corporate expansion north of Berkeley (mostly due to traffic nightmares)- whereas you can buy in Oakland (obviously lots of cheap stuff there)- and benefit from high walk scores and tech moving in.  People dwell on the fact that Uber pulled out of Oakland, but that had more to do with internal strife at Uber.    Richmond isn't the only ungentrified place in the bay area.


For those that haven't lived in the bay area for 10 years or more, *traffic* is much more of a determinant for gentrification than it used to be.  You simply can't get around anymore, and all bridge tolls are rising to $9 in the next few years.

Preach, Walnut Creek to Emeryville, about 30 mins early in the AM. Bart packed and the lots are full by 7 am easily... then you still have transfers etc just a huge pain. That drive home though, with all the other people.... 2 hrs often, and nearly always over an hour.

TL;DR: People are tired of spending 1-2hrs to go 16 miles...

@Matt K.   when I grew up in the bay area 680 was not built and you had to drive the surface road up niles canyon to Livermore and then up the Dublin valley to get to Walnut Creek.. 

I am not talking next week but I think a lot of these kids that live and work in the bay area in their 20 and 30s could be sitting pretty owning in that area.. just my thought process based on what I experienced I the 70s and 80s

Originally posted by @Steve B. :

Seems like a winning “forced appreciation” situation, barring any unforeseen systematic recession. People have to live somewhere and the reasons given for “a new hip gentrifying area” is in reality often just a rationalization for finding an local and affordable spot

these commutes these folks are talking about are no worse than the commutes to Vancouver these days and not as bad many days.

and remember we were talking about over flow to Longview.. ? 

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :

@Matt K.  when I grew up in the bay area 680 was not built and you had to drive the surface road up niles canyon to Livermore and then up the Dublin valley to get to Walnut Creek.. 

I am not talking next week but I think a lot of these kids that live and work in the bay area in their 20 and 30s could be sitting pretty owning in that area.. just my thought process based on what I experienced I the 70s and 80s

 Oddly enough, surface streets are all the rage now to avoid the congestion of 680 haha.... thanks to waze!!

I'm with you on the long term play, the rate values typically are going up it'd take drastic drop just to get back to already high prices... But Richmond (same thought process of Vallejo, Antioch, Fairfield, etc) is it's cheap. That's the draw to the majority of people and not much else, plus the schools typically are terrible and aren't getting better anytime soon.... and that'll start to matter as the working professional transitions to a new family.

I missed the boat big time on Oakland and then Walnut Creek... but I can tell you as someone who's made this commute for almost 15 years now it's gotten terrible. BART used to be manageable, but now the trains are full by the time they leave the city so if you work in Oakland you miss trains that are at capacity. It's so bad they're actually rewarding off-peak travel to reduce the impact. Then you also have parking problems at the stations, it took me over 6 years to get a permit spot and by then I no longer needed it. Stations used to not be full, then they'd be full by 8, now it's closer to 7 if not earlier... and it's standing room only from about the first few stops.

I guess where I'm going with this ramble is that this commute sucks and people will continue to go all in to live as close to work as they can...

Originally posted by @Matt K. :
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

@Matt K.  when I grew up in the bay area 680 was not built and you had to drive the surface road up niles canyon to Livermore and then up the Dublin valley to get to Walnut Creek.. 

I am not talking next week but I think a lot of these kids that live and work in the bay area in their 20 and 30s could be sitting pretty owning in that area.. just my thought process based on what I experienced I the 70s and 80s

 Oddly enough, surface streets are all the rage now to avoid the congestion of 680 haha.... thanks to waze!!

I'm with you on the long term play, the rate values typically are going up it'd take drastic drop just to get back to already high prices... But Richmond (same thought process of Vallejo, Antioch, Fairfield, etc) is it's cheap. That's the draw to the majority of people and not much else, plus the schools typically are terrible and aren't getting better anytime soon.... and that'll start to matter as the working professional transitions to a new family.

I missed the boat big time on Oakland and then Walnut Creek... but I can tell you as someone who's made this commute for almost 15 years now it's gotten terrible. BART used to be manageable, but now the trains are full by the time they leave the city so if you work in Oakland you miss trains that are at capacity. It's so bad they're actually rewarding off-peak travel to reduce the impact. Then you also have parking problems at the stations, it took me over 6 years to get a permit spot and by then I no longer needed it. Stations used to not be full, then they'd be full by 8, now it's closer to 7 if not earlier... and it's standing room only from about the first few stops.

I guess where I'm going with this ramble is that this commute sucks and people will continue to go all in to live as close to work as they can...

when I go to Chicago I stay out by ORD  and I take the train in from Rosemont.. its standing room only those folks learn to live with it and its bumper both ways every day as well.. it just is what it is.. And don't get me started on Manhattan  just try to get from there to JFK.. hour and a half to go 5 miles  LOL.   

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs :

I saw a TV show talking about the average sales price in the Bay area at 936k  along with some tear downs in Freemont selling for 1.1 to 1.3  it was crazy even for someone like me who bought their first home in the late 70s in Milpitas for 79k and it was a new construction Shapel home  LOL.

So I have to think back to E. Palo Alto and in those same years I was buying foreclosures there for 12 to 20k and flipping them making 5k a home and thought I was the smartest guy on the planet.. 

Now I have started to buy in Richmond I cant for the life of me understand why there is not more talk about Richmond were you can buy at 1/3 the market value of the rest of the bay area and it can be re gentrified and fixed up.. Just like E PA and parts of Oakland etc.

with the new Ferry the proximity to jobs  Seems like a no brainer to get ahead of the curve or the herd as it were ?   big money is made in path of progress ??? at least that's my thinking... anyone agree or you think I am nuts.

 Yup, ain't nothing wrong with Richmond. Easy commute distance to Berkeley via car (surface streets), BART, and the ferry will open up reasonable commutes to San Francisco. Silicon Valley not super viable, but not everyone works in Silicon Valley. 

For people getting started, offers backed by FHA financing, down payment assistance ($194k income limit for down payment assistance paired with Richmond prices... viable AF), 95% LTV on 2-4 units, etc, are viable. Richmond real estate agents do not automatically trash-can such offers the way they do in other areas... Super tough to get those offers accepted in Oakland, SF, or Berkeley, by contrast (unless off-market), and don't even think about the Peninsula. For those that are looking off market, lots of "granny homes" where the husband died 15 years ago and it's got that much deferred maintenance, but solid bones.

@Jay Hinrichs You're not supposed to be touting the investment opportunity that is Richmond! That's supposed to be *my* secret gem. It's still easy to scare folks away here. :-)

There is lots going on here, as far as development goes. My NextDoor is a hotbed of all sorts of news in that regard. So yes, while SF Bay Area may be averaging $936k, there's a new luxe development going up nearby that will be selling for $600s (townhomes) to $700s (detached single family), both types with [private] rooftop decks. And then there's the ever elusive ferry. A condo sold a few months ago - $370k for a 1/1 that did not have any of the fancy upgrades of the recently converted condos that hit the market at $325k last spring. 

It won't be long before the gentrification truly catches up to us, traffic be damned. I work on the peninsula and normally BART + Caltrain but am blessed to be able to work from home as I wish. When I do, I try to avoid getting in my car at all because 80 is a parking lot pretty much 24/7.

Originally posted by @Jana Cain :

@Jay Hinrichs You're not supposed to be touting the investment opportunity that is Richmond! That's supposed to be *my* secret gem. It's still easy to scare folks away here. :-)

There is lots going on here, as far as development goes. My NextDoor is a hotbed of all sorts of news in that regard. So yes, while SF Bay Area may be averaging $936k, there's a new luxe development going up nearby that will be selling for $600s (townhomes) to $700s (detached single family), both types with [private] rooftop decks. And then there's the ever elusive ferry. A condo sold a few months ago - $370k for a 1/1 that did not have any of the fancy upgrades of the recently converted condos that hit the market at $325k last spring. 

It won't be long before the gentrification truly catches up to us, traffic be damned. I work on the peninsula and normally BART + Caltrain but am blessed to be able to work from home as I wish. When I do, I try to avoid getting in my car at all because 80 is a parking lot pretty much 24/7.

I am making a run on bare lots for future starter homes in the 300 to 500k range.. 

We went into Charleston SC 5 plus years ago in the exact same scenarios and areas an have just crushed it.. I am not a herd investor I am a get in front of the herd and hopefully guess right  :)  but being born and raised there and watch what happened I have no doubt that in 20 to 30 years those will be some really solid investments.