Those of you on the sidelines

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Those of you on the sidelines

Shiloh LundahlPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

I remember hearing people in 2017 and 2018 saying that they were going to wait on the sidelines until it was a good time to buy again. We all know that properties kept going up until mid 2022. Then in 2022 that said that they were going to definitely wait because it was a bad time to buy.

My question is, when is a good time to buy? And how will you recognize it? And if you recognize it is a good time to buy won’t everyone else see that it is a good time to buy too and then jump into the market and drive prices up?

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Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
1y
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:

This mistake is in thinking one can time the market. 2012 was a better time to invest than 2019, and 2019 was better than 2024. However, there are good deals in both markets.

The key is to know your numbers and what makes a good investment. You can find more good deals in 2012, so you buy as much as you can. When things are difficult in 2024, you buy less, but you are still looking.

I like the analogy of a runner. Many started off in 2010 - 2019 with downhill terrain and the wind at their back. Running was easy! In 2020, the ground leveled out, then quickly shifted to hilly terrain. By 2024, they were on a steep hill with the wind in their faces. So what should they do? Many decided it's too hard, so they sat down under a tree and whined about not making any progress. Some kept running and their momentum is pushing them forward. Some slowed to a walk.

When the terrain or wind shifts back into everyone's favor, those sitting on the sidelines will have to recognize the change, then get back on the road. They'll spend a lot of time warning up and getting back into the groove. Those that stayed in the race, whether running or walking, will feel the shift immediately and will be miles ahead of those that chose to sit it out.


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  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    1y

    @Eric Bilderback

    Agree with you, and to your point - if you buy something today that puts you in a stressed out position, you can't / shouldn't count on anything saving you - like a huge jump in rents or a big decrease in rates so can you refinance.  That would be unwise.

    @Shiloh Lundahl

    I am a small player, but I am making offers on terms that work for me, and I am mostly getting either outbid or turned down.  Sellers with no debt would rather hold and do nothing - in some cases with vacant properties - than accept less than they think properties are "worth."  

    So it's still a good time to buy if you can get a deal that makes sense for you.  It is not a good time to buy just to buy and hope that prices go up another 40% in the next 2-3 years.

    2Reply
  • Ben HowardPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · El Dorado Hills, CA · Member since 2017 · 160 posts · 67 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Alan F.:

     Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!

    Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.

    Winters is seeing some the same.

    Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh

    So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay!  Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.

    Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too,  Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy


    Nothing like living on Grant Line near the county dump and the south Sunrise Blvd. meat rendering plant.
    [email protected]916-390-7060
    1Reply
  • Alan F.
    Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Ben Howard:
    Quote from @Alan F.:

     Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!

    Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.

    Winters is seeing some the same.

    Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh

    So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay!  Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.

    Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too,  Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy


    Nothing like living on Grant Line near the county dump and the south Sunrise Blvd. meat rendering plant.

     Right!  Lol

    0Reply
  • Ericka Parrott
    Residential Real Estate Agent · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2009 · 381 posts · 134 votes
    1y

    No one has a "crystal ball" to time the market perfectly. 

    0Reply
  • Jill F.
    Investor · Akron, OH · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1y

    For me, the time to buy is whenever I have the money and can find a deal in a decent area that I can make cash flow in the relatively short term. I bought my first investment property in August 2016, closed on a property Jan 10, and have another deal under contract now. Moving forward.

    1Reply
  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    1y

    All I know is that, as CEO of this company, it was really hard watching influencers and 20-somethings race past me, buying dozens or hundreds of units from 2019-2022. Some of my colleagues and friends bought millions, others tens of millions, and some hundreds of millions (or Billions) during that period.

    Real estate is a funny game - it tends to go up, yes, but it does not always go up, and it can go nowhere for a decade or more, as a lot of apartment complex purchasers from 2021 are about to find out. 

    Aside from basic maintenance which is simple work, but hard and monotonous work, and keeping the asset positioned to fulfill it's highest and best use, there's nothing you have to do past a certain point to benefit from market appreciation. You just hold it, keep it occupied and well maintained, and let the years roll by. 

    The reverse is also true. You can claim to be the best guy in the world at finding and analyzing deals, but when the market turns against you, and you just went all-in, even on the best relative opportunities that market had available at the time, there is nothing you can do to prevent losses, especially if your debt has a maturity date that will force your hand.

    Timing the market is an interesting concept. 

    Despite what I wrote above, I admit, that I am tempted to go as big as I can, using extremely long-term debt or just by buying real estate with 100% cash, in 2025 and into 2026. Something tells me that the pendulum just flipped, and that just as all these guys who went all in and bragged about their unit count have all seemingly shut up and disappeared, that now is buy time. I'm under contract on a quadplex, fully renovated, at the highest cap rate for a small multifamily that I've purchased in my career, right now. I am buying it for 20% less than the original list price a year ago. 

    I see stocks at all time highs, and interest in real estate investing at decade long lows, and I admit, I start to salivate. I sold about half my stock portfolio to purchase real estate here in January.

    If it's not time to buy right now, when is buy time? It's certainly a better time to buy than 2021, at least in multifamily!

    I am sure I will be very publicly wrong, and you all can make fun of me in two years, when stocks double and real estate prices crash 20% from here, but I just don't know how you can watch this industry, this closely, for this long, and not be raring to go in the current environment. 

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  • Amir Khan
    Investor · Coppell, TX · Member since 2018 · 311 posts · 166 votes
    1y

    Just as some others have chimed in, real estate has 16-17 years cycles. The most recent peak was in 2023, so we are going to see flat then going into a slow steady increase in prices over the next few years. Even though, real estate investments are not uniform in different markets and asset classes, just on the 16-17 year cycle basis and if you primarily rely on appreciation, this may be the perfect time to buy!

    0Reply
  • David F.
    Member since 2018 · 113 posts · 136 votes
    1y
    I appreciate how @Scott Trench is publicly giving his research, opinion, and what he’s investing in, but has the humility to admit it may or may not work out. Good leadership and one reason why I continue to stay plugged into BP. I was getting a bit dissapointed with some of the podcasts in ‘23/24, but I feel they offer more value and accuracy in ‘25. Thanks to those in the forums who’ve been investing for decades and bring that experience in their comments. 

    Quote from @Scott Trench
    2Reply
  • Bud Gaffney
    Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y

    Tool post. Don't be a tool.

    0Reply
  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1y

    OP  We have been sitting on the sidelines the last 2 years.

    It’s a good time to buy when the numbers work.  But you also have to apply your level of risk aversion or risk adjusted return.  

    Will everyone else jump in then?  No, since their risk aversion and their value analysis will be different than yours.  

    I would also throw in bandwidth.  Both from a time standpoint but also a risk standpoint.  
    Lots of people’s bandwidth have shrunk with the higher interest rates.

    We always have about 4 different projects either in motion or sitting.  We might wait for the in motion project to get to say 40% completion or occupancy before we start the next one.   This is for bandwidth and risk management. 

    For the last two years we have been sitting on the sidelines. Actually we have divested 4 of our 8 Self storage locations to get into a better LTV position versus my view of the economic world.

    Example:  Risk assessment.  my view of the economic world is pretty pessimistic.  We don’t invest at 9% or higher.  Currently we would be at 8.5% interest rate.   Stock market to me needs to revert by 50%.  S&P500 index is propped up by about 7 companies that make no material value with P/E ratios of about 3% for the market average. Known  Potential Black Swan events, numerous.  

    With the above said we have a 75 acre country subdivision coming online this spring. 100% cash. I tell people this is the worst time to do a subdivision. But REI is local.

    Have another self storage development identified.  Land priced right, zoned correctly, market analysis great and potential competition low.  Build cost low.  Financing is approved just need to sign the paperwork. Cash flow great.   Value add $2mm after 2 years.  Easiest project we have ever could do.  Project on the sidelines because of my assessment of the overall economic risk. 

    So what do we do to avert the above concerns?  We invest in Teak plantations in Belize.  


    It’s always a great time to buy.  There are tons of deal flow out there.  Even in housing.  

    0Reply
  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Henry Clark:

    OP  We have been sitting on the sidelines the last 2 years.

    It’s a good time to buy when the numbers work.  But you also have to apply your level of risk aversion or risk adjusted return.  

    Will everyone else jump in then?  No, since their risk aversion and their value analysis will be different than yours.  

    I would also throw in bandwidth.  Both from a time standpoint but also a risk standpoint.  
    Lots of people’s bandwidth have shrunk with the higher interest rates.

    We always have about 4 different projects either in motion or sitting.  We might wait for the in motion project to get to say 40% completion or occupancy before we start the next one.   This is for bandwidth and risk management. 

    For the last two years we have been sitting on the sidelines. Actually we have divested 4 of our 8 Self storage locations to get into a better LTV position versus my view of the economic world.

    Example:  Risk assessment.  my view of the economic world is pretty pessimistic.  We don’t invest at 9% or higher.  Currently we would be at 8.5% interest rate.   Stock market to me needs to revert by 50%.  S&P500 index is propped up by about 7 companies that make no material value with P/E ratios of about 3% for the market average. Known  Potential Black Swan events, numerous.  

    With the above said we have a 75 acre country subdivision coming online this spring. 100% cash. I tell people this is the worst time to do a subdivision. But REI is local.

    Have another self storage development identified.  Land priced right, zoned correctly, market analysis great and potential competition low.  Build cost low.  Financing is approved just need to sign the paperwork. Cash flow great.   Value add $2mm after 2 years.  Easiest project we have ever could do.  Project on the sidelines because of my assessment of the overall economic risk. 

    So what do we do to avert the above concerns?  We invest in Teak plantations in Belize.  


    It’s always a great time to buy.  There are tons of deal flow out there.  Even in housing.  

    I may have to Teak my strategy in light of the excellent advice you provide here, Henry. 
    Podcast Guest on Show #223
    BiggerPockets
    2Reply
  • Alan F.
    Flipper/Rehabber · CA · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:
    Quote from @Henry Clark:

    OP  We have been sitting on the sidelines the last 2 years.

    It’s a good time to buy when the numbers work.  But you also have to apply your level of risk aversion or risk adjusted return.  

    Will everyone else jump in then?  No, since their risk aversion and their value analysis will be different than yours.  

    I would also throw in bandwidth.  Both from a time standpoint but also a risk standpoint.  
    Lots of people’s bandwidth have shrunk with the higher interest rates.

    We always have about 4 different projects either in motion or sitting.  We might wait for the in motion project to get to say 40% completion or occupancy before we start the next one.   This is for bandwidth and risk management. 

    For the last two years we have been sitting on the sidelines. Actually we have divested 4 of our 8 Self storage locations to get into a better LTV position versus my view of the economic world.

    Example:  Risk assessment.  my view of the economic world is pretty pessimistic.  We don’t invest at 9% or higher.  Currently we would be at 8.5% interest rate.   Stock market to me needs to revert by 50%.  S&P500 index is propped up by about 7 companies that make no material value with P/E ratios of about 3% for the market average. Known  Potential Black Swan events, numerous.  

    With the above said we have a 75 acre country subdivision coming online this spring. 100% cash. I tell people this is the worst time to do a subdivision. But REI is local.

    Have another self storage development identified.  Land priced right, zoned correctly, market analysis great and potential competition low.  Build cost low.  Financing is approved just need to sign the paperwork. Cash flow great.   Value add $2mm after 2 years.  Easiest project we have ever could do.  Project on the sidelines because of my assessment of the overall economic risk. 

    So what do we do to avert the above concerns?  We invest in Teak plantations in Belize.  


    It’s always a great time to buy.  There are tons of deal flow out there.  Even in housing.  

    I may have to Teak my strategy in light of the excellent advice you provide here, Henry. 

     I 2nd what David Fern said, your candor & humility are greatly appreciated, maybe your pun work needs a little tweaking thogh 😁

    2Reply
  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:
    Quote from @Henry Clark:

    OP  We have been sitting on the sidelines the last 2 years.

    It’s a good time to buy when the numbers work.  But you also have to apply your level of risk aversion or risk adjusted return.  

    Will everyone else jump in then?  No, since their risk aversion and their value analysis will be different than yours.  

    I would also throw in bandwidth.  Both from a time standpoint but also a risk standpoint.  
    Lots of people’s bandwidth have shrunk with the higher interest rates.

    We always have about 4 different projects either in motion or sitting.  We might wait for the in motion project to get to say 40% completion or occupancy before we start the next one.   This is for bandwidth and risk management. 

    For the last two years we have been sitting on the sidelines. Actually we have divested 4 of our 8 Self storage locations to get into a better LTV position versus my view of the economic world.

    Example:  Risk assessment.  my view of the economic world is pretty pessimistic.  We don’t invest at 9% or higher.  Currently we would be at 8.5% interest rate.   Stock market to me needs to revert by 50%.  S&P500 index is propped up by about 7 companies that make no material value with P/E ratios of about 3% for the market average. Known  Potential Black Swan events, numerous.  

    With the above said we have a 75 acre country subdivision coming online this spring. 100% cash. I tell people this is the worst time to do a subdivision. But REI is local.

    Have another self storage development identified.  Land priced right, zoned correctly, market analysis great and potential competition low.  Build cost low.  Financing is approved just need to sign the paperwork. Cash flow great.   Value add $2mm after 2 years.  Easiest project we have ever could do.  Project on the sidelines because of my assessment of the overall economic risk. 

    So what do we do to avert the above concerns?  We invest in Teak plantations in Belize.  


    It’s always a great time to buy.  There are tons of deal flow out there.  Even in housing.  

    I may have to Teak my strategy in light of the excellent advice you provide here, Henry. 
    Play on words.  But for everyone’s benefit don’t invest in Teak for 98% of people.  If you google there are several invest in Teak options.  Most of them relate to the trees and the land.  

    All trees not just teak trees the money is in the processing and not the growing.  Example value of a standing teak tree is $1 per board foot.  For teak the finished retail board is $28 to $32 per board foot.  Our model is to take the tree to the wholesale stage before retail at $16 per board foot.  

    The thing about teak is natural forests are being harvested at a rate of 20 to 1 farmed plantations planted.  Teak is getting rarer.  The market is primarily China, India, Malaysia and Europe.  Most of those populations are both growing and their GDP per capita is growing.  Most.  Thus the market is increasing on a declining availability.  Lifecycle of teak is 21 to 60 years.  The above anomaly won’t get corrected for 40 years. 

    Bad world economy.  You just don’t harvest. They grow both physically and with inflation.  Not USD dependent, provides diversification.

    I have stated many times I like nasty properties or situations.  

    Side note.  We don’t invest in housing.  But Nasty is coming up.  With the next downturn look to buy distressed top end airbnb and resort properties even destination island properties.  Pick an area to isolate.  Make realtor connections to understand what makes each house and neighborhood valuable.  Check Airbnb rates and occupancy.  Once the market goes down make 10 offers at 60% current value.  Subject to.   During Covid 1/2 of the houses in one of our Belize resort locations were up for sale.  Same thing will occur with a downturn in the U.S. stock market.







    3Reply
  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:

    All I know is that, as CEO of this company, it was really hard watching influencers and 20-somethings race past me, buying dozens or hundreds of units from 2019-2022. Some of my colleagues and friends bought millions, others tens of millions, and some hundreds of millions (or Billions) during that period.

    Real estate is a funny game - it tends to go up, yes, but it does not always go up, and it can go nowhere for a decade or more, as a lot of apartment complex purchasers from 2021 are about to find out. 

    Aside from basic maintenance which is simple work, but hard and monotonous work, and keeping the asset positioned to fulfill it's highest and best use, there's nothing you have to do past a certain point to benefit from market appreciation. You just hold it, keep it occupied and well maintained, and let the years roll by. 

    The reverse is also true. You can claim to be the best guy in the world at finding and analyzing deals, but when the market turns against you, and you just went all-in, even on the best relative opportunities that market had available at the time, there is nothing you can do to prevent losses, especially if your debt has a maturity date that will force your hand.

    Timing the market is an interesting concept. 

    Despite what I wrote above, I admit, that I am tempted to go as big as I can, using extremely long-term debt or just by buying real estate with 100% cash, in 2025 and into 2026. Something tells me that the pendulum just flipped, and that just as all these guys who went all in and bragged about their unit count have all seemingly shut up and disappeared, that now is buy time. I'm under contract on a quadplex, fully renovated, at the highest cap rate for a small multifamily that I've purchased in my career, right now. I am buying it for 20% less than the original list price a year ago. 

    I see stocks at all time highs, and interest in real estate investing at decade long lows, and I admit, I start to salivate. I sold about half my stock portfolio to purchase real estate here in January.

    If it's not time to buy right now, when is buy time? It's certainly a better time to buy than 2021, at least in multifamily!

    I am sure I will be very publicly wrong, and you all can make fun of me in two years, when stocks double and real estate prices crash 20% from here, but I just don't know how you can watch this industry, this closely, for this long, and not be raring to go in the current environment. 

    Opportunity in MF. And it bleeding into SFR is to be watched. Ideally, you'll go low LTV--40% on excellent locations and & great prices scaling down to 20% LTV to negate a worse bid & location. It's not just what you buy, it's going to be what you pay and that's the sliding scale on leverage.

    I digress. Selling half your stock portfolio does not relate to 99% of the people on here that don't have the ability to tap into equities or divest from another source to create the vehicle needed to invest. Which is the crux of this thread.

    I don't think anybody that's actually capable is on the sidelines. It's everyone who realizes they are not capable.

    And the percentage of folks capable is minute, very minute. Especially relative to the previous 12-15 years. 

    Anyone capable is just understanding the market is reverting, and just because we're not taking properties off the market in sub 2 weeks doesn't mean we're "sitting on the sidelines." It just means it's not extreme euphoria. 

    This will be a generational MF opportunity, akin to 2008 SFR. And while I intend to compete in it too, I'm curious it's impact on SFR. I think it sticks to things that have a commercial related valuation like STRs, vacation properties, etc., and less on very good properties in very good neighborhoods. Like Henry said.

    4Reply
  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    1y

    @V.G Jason - This is an outstanding observation and analysis. 

    My belief for SFR is that prices simply don't move much and grow slower than inflation. Rents will rise much at a much faster rate, so the challenge of finding cash flow (enabling more investors to become "capable") will gradually recede as SFR cap rates gradually expand - it will be a process, not an event - over the next few years.

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    0Reply
  • Ben HowardPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · El Dorado Hills, CA · Member since 2017 · 160 posts · 67 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:

    All I know is that, as CEO of this company, it was really hard watching influencers and 20-somethings race past me, buying dozens or hundreds of units from 2019-2022. Some of my colleagues and friends bought millions, others tens of millions, and some hundreds of millions (or Billions) during that period.

    Real estate is a funny game - it tends to go up, yes, but it does not always go up, and it can go nowhere for a decade or more, as a lot of apartment complex purchasers from 2021 are about to find out. 

    Aside from basic maintenance which is simple work, but hard and monotonous work, and keeping the asset positioned to fulfill it's highest and best use, there's nothing you have to do past a certain point to benefit from market appreciation. You just hold it, keep it occupied and well maintained, and let the years roll by. 

    The reverse is also true. You can claim to be the best guy in the world at finding and analyzing deals, but when the market turns against you, and you just went all-in, even on the best relative opportunities that market had available at the time, there is nothing you can do to prevent losses, especially if your debt has a maturity date that will force your hand.

    Timing the market is an interesting concept. 

    Despite what I wrote above, I admit, that I am tempted to go as big as I can, using extremely long-term debt or just by buying real estate with 100% cash, in 2025 and into 2026. Something tells me that the pendulum just flipped, and that just as all these guys who went all in and bragged about their unit count have all seemingly shut up and disappeared, that now is buy time. I'm under contract on a quadplex, fully renovated, at the highest cap rate for a small multifamily that I've purchased in my career, right now. I am buying it for 20% less than the original list price a year ago. 

    I see stocks at all time highs, and interest in real estate investing at decade long lows, and I admit, I start to salivate. I sold about half my stock portfolio to purchase real estate here in January.

    If it's not time to buy right now, when is buy time? It's certainly a better time to buy than 2021, at least in multifamily!

    I am sure I will be very publicly wrong, and you all can make fun of me in two years, when stocks double and real estate prices crash 20% from here, but I just don't know how you can watch this industry, this closely, for this long, and not be raring to go in the current environment. 


    Hi @Scott Trench as a Bigger Pockets Pro member for about eight years, I would love it if you brought back the traditional Bigger Pockets Pro member signature line with website please. Nice to see that you are active in the forums.

    [email protected]916-390-7060
    0Reply
  • Stetson Oates
    Member since 2024 · 65 posts · 63 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:

    @V.G Jason - This is an outstanding observation and analysis. 

    My belief for SFR is that prices simply don't move much and grow slower than inflation. Rents will rise much at a much faster rate, so the challenge of finding cash flow (enabling more investors to become "capable") will gradually recede as SFR cap rates gradually expand - it will be a process, not an event - over the next few years.

    I like the SFR buy and hold model.  I’m willing to put enough cash down to make it cash flow. Usually B properties in good neighborhoods provide positive cash flow at 75% LTV.  My buy box is 3 bed 2 bath in the Midwest at around $200k. My main strategy is flexibility. If I need to sell, a SFH is a lot easier to sell than a multi-family boat anchor if you’re in a bind. Plus your 100% selling multi-family to another investor who will want a deal. It’s buying season in my opinion.
    0Reply
  • Chris John
    Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:

    If it's not time to buy right now, when is buy time? It's certainly a better time to buy than 2021, at least in multifamily!

    Can I ask your reasoning for this statement?  In 2021 we bought several 4plexes that cashflowed easily at 25% down.  I'm not seeing those deals right now...  Thanks

    0Reply
    • Scott TrenchPro Member
      Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
      1y

      @Chris John I'm seeing quadplexes thhat are far cheaper per dollar of income today than they were in 2021. 

      For example, I am under contract on a property $75K in NOI for exactly $1M. In 2021, this property would have sold for $1.2M.

      While this, still, is hard to cash flow at a 7% 30-year rate, buying a property that used to trade at a 5% cap rate for a 7.5% cap rate is inarguably better value.

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      1Reply
    • V.G JasonPro Member
      Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
      1y
      Quote from @Scott Trench:

      @Chris John I'm seeing quadplexes thhat are far cheaper per dollar of income today than they were in 2021. 

      For example, I am under contract on a property $75K in NOI for exactly $1M. In 2021, this property would have sold for $1.2M.

      While this, still, is hard to cash flow at a 7% 30-year rate, buying a property that used to trade at a 5% cap rate for a 7.5% cap rate is inarguably better value.

       Curious now that equities are in a correction phase and the opportunity to buy back in is getting increasingly attractive. Are you bidding deeper on MF given the optionality?

      Anyone who has returned my inquiries is getting a tougher bid. All those agents saying wait till Spring has hurt them.

      1Reply
  • Chris John
    Member since 2020 · 671 posts · 937 votes
    1y

    @Scott Trench

    Interesting.  Thanks for the response.  I guess it's all regional and depends on which month in 2021.  We bought ours for $380k at around 3.5%.  They're probably $450K or so now with whatever rates are.  I'm guessing 7-8%...

    0Reply
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