Those of you on the sidelines
Shiloh LundahlPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votesThose of you on the sidelines
Most Popular Reply
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
1yQuote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
This mistake is in thinking one can time the market. 2012 was a better time to invest than 2019, and 2019 was better than 2024. However, there are good deals in both markets.
The key is to know your numbers and what makes a good investment. You can find more good deals in 2012, so you buy as much as you can. When things are difficult in 2024, you buy less, but you are still looking.
I like the analogy of a runner. Many started off in 2010 - 2019 with downhill terrain and the wind at their back. Running was easy! In 2020, the ground leveled out, then quickly shifted to hilly terrain. By 2024, they were on a steep hill with the wind in their faces. So what should they do? Many decided it's too hard, so they sat down under a tree and whined about not making any progress. Some kept running and their momentum is pushing them forward. Some slowed to a walk.
When the terrain or wind shifts back into everyone's favor, those sitting on the sidelines will have to recognize the change, then get back on the road. They'll spend a lot of time warning up and getting back into the groove. Those that stayed in the race, whether running or walking, will feel the shift immediately and will be miles ahead of those that chose to sit it out.
The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews
50 Replies
- Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes1y
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
This mistake is in thinking one can time the market. 2012 was a better time to invest than 2019, and 2019 was better than 2024. However, there are good deals in both markets.
The key is to know your numbers and what makes a good investment. You can find more good deals in 2012, so you buy as much as you can. When things are difficult in 2024, you buy less, but you are still looking.
I like the analogy of a runner. Many started off in 2010 - 2019 with downhill terrain and the wind at their back. Running was easy! In 2020, the ground leveled out, then quickly shifted to hilly terrain. By 2024, they were on a steep hill with the wind in their faces. So what should they do? Many decided it's too hard, so they sat down under a tree and whined about not making any progress. Some kept running and their momentum is pushing them forward. Some slowed to a walk.
When the terrain or wind shifts back into everyone's favor, those sitting on the sidelines will have to recognize the change, then get back on the road. They'll spend a lot of time warning up and getting back into the groove. Those that stayed in the race, whether running or walking, will feel the shift immediately and will be miles ahead of those that chose to sit it out.
The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews - Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes1y
@Nathan Gesner great analogy. I wholeheartedly agree. I think those that are out of the market won’t recognize the shifts nearly as quickly as those that are in the market.
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
- Rental Property Investor · Gilbert, AZ · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes1y
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2018-2019 you are right on. I am grouping the decade together. They sat on the sidelines seeing saturation pick up in 2018-2019 and decided to step out. If they had invested from 2010-2017, it'd actually prudent to do that from a portfolio construction standpoint. Was not right, but prudent.
2018-2019s problem is not 2024-2025s problem.They thought low rates was the norm, not the outlier. Now in 2024-2025 we're seeing it was the outlier. The limiting factor right now is not speculation or a lack of euphoria--it's simply affordability.
No one capable is "waiting on the sidelines", they just cannot afford to participate. That's why it's not a fair question. But to address the question, the answer is when they can afford to participate.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Agreed. Anyone claiming people are going to feel the pain later by "sitting on the sidelines" is completely amiss of the real problem. And that's the fact that the main entry point from an intrinsic standpoint on RE was during the outlier period.
Real estate is not an intrinsic day 1 asset. It's a primarily a utility asset, and secondarily a store of value against currency.
Now, three things can happen.
That ship of low rates that sailed could come back? If it does sooner than later, or really at any point, it means destruction in the economy and if you were waiting you are probably impacted by this destruction.
Rates moderate and season here for some time with opex being a persistent headwind. If you enter at this point, be prepared to ride this wave. Most on this forum can't even come up with a downpayment, you can't expect them to ride HOI/tax increases, vacanices, etc., with lower leverage and less cash flow on a property. They'll tap out in 3 months, max.
Rates can increase. I think this will be the short term realization, and anyone that did not wait on the sidelines and jumped in with the intention of a short-term re-fi might have to tap out.
Housing supply is the other function, and my view as rates increase so does inventory in markets that are coming up to pre-pandemic levels and the inverse in the one's that are decreasing.
It's got nothing to do with people being speculative or "sitting on the sidelines". It's got everything to do with people just not be able to afford it, even if they wanted to. That's' the resistance point.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Agreed. Anyone claiming people are going to feel the pain later by "sitting on the sidelines" is completely amiss of the real problem. And that's the fact that the main entry point from an intrinsic standpoint on RE was during the outlier period.
Real estate is not an intrinsic day 1 asset. It's a primarily a utility asset, and secondarily a store of value against currency.
Now, three things can happen.
That ship of low rates that sailed could come back? If it does sooner than later, or really at any point, it means destruction in the economy and if you were waiting you are probably impacted by this destruction.
Rates moderate and season here for some time with opex being a persistent headwind. If you enter at this point, be prepared to ride this wave. Most on this forum can't even come up with a downpayment, you can't expect them to ride HOI/tax increases, vacanices, etc., with lower leverage and less cash flow on a property. They'll tap out in 3 months, max.
Rates can increase. I think this will be the short term realization, and anyone that did not wait on the sidelines and jumped in with the intention of a short-term re-fi might have to tap out.
Housing supply is the other function, and my view as rates increase so does inventory in markets that are coming up to pre-pandemic levels and the inverse in the one's that are decreasing.
It's got nothing to do with people being speculative or "sitting on the sidelines". It's got everything to do with people just not be able to afford it, even if they wanted to. That's' the resistance point.
Man this hits good @Alan F.
With that being said,
I miss @Carlos Ptriawan
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Agreed. Anyone claiming people are going to feel the pain later by "sitting on the sidelines" is completely amiss of the real problem. And that's the fact that the main entry point from an intrinsic standpoint on RE was during the outlier period.
Real estate is not an intrinsic day 1 asset. It's a primarily a utility asset, and secondarily a store of value against currency.
Now, three things can happen.
That ship of low rates that sailed could come back? If it does sooner than later, or really at any point, it means destruction in the economy and if you were waiting you are probably impacted by this destruction.
Rates moderate and season here for some time with opex being a persistent headwind. If you enter at this point, be prepared to ride this wave. Most on this forum can't even come up with a downpayment, you can't expect them to ride HOI/tax increases, vacanices, etc., with lower leverage and less cash flow on a property. They'll tap out in 3 months, max.
Rates can increase. I think this will be the short term realization, and anyone that did not wait on the sidelines and jumped in with the intention of a short-term re-fi might have to tap out.
Housing supply is the other function, and my view as rates increase so does inventory in markets that are coming up to pre-pandemic levels and the inverse in the one's that are decreasing.
It's got nothing to do with people being speculative or "sitting on the sidelines". It's got everything to do with people just not be able to afford it, even if they wanted to. That's' the resistance point.
So true, unfortunately the fed has essentially kicked the can down the road, repeating volkers mistakes in the 70's. There's not many tools in the box to repair many years of poor policy i.e. QE et al (inflation reduction act! Bwhaha!)
This economic cycle is particularly detrimental to the lower middle class and is contributing the slow housing market.
I have great empathy for young people trying to buy homes.
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Agreed. Anyone claiming people are going to feel the pain later by "sitting on the sidelines" is completely amiss of the real problem. And that's the fact that the main entry point from an intrinsic standpoint on RE was during the outlier period.
Real estate is not an intrinsic day 1 asset. It's a primarily a utility asset, and secondarily a store of value against currency.
Now, three things can happen.
That ship of low rates that sailed could come back? If it does sooner than later, or really at any point, it means destruction in the economy and if you were waiting you are probably impacted by this destruction.
Rates moderate and season here for some time with opex being a persistent headwind. If you enter at this point, be prepared to ride this wave. Most on this forum can't even come up with a downpayment, you can't expect them to ride HOI/tax increases, vacanices, etc., with lower leverage and less cash flow on a property. They'll tap out in 3 months, max.
Rates can increase. I think this will be the short term realization, and anyone that did not wait on the sidelines and jumped in with the intention of a short-term re-fi might have to tap out.
Housing supply is the other function, and my view as rates increase so does inventory in markets that are coming up to pre-pandemic levels and the inverse in the one's that are decreasing.
It's got nothing to do with people being speculative or "sitting on the sidelines". It's got everything to do with people just not be able to afford it, even if they wanted to. That's' the resistance point.
So true, unfortunately the fed has essentially kicked the can down the road, repeating volkers mistakes in the 70's. There's not many tools in the box to repair many years of poor policy i.e. QE et al (inflation reduction act! Bwhaha!)
This economic cycle is particularly detrimental to the lower middle class and is contributing the slow housing market.
I have great empathy for young people trying to buy homes.
It's only getting worse.
@Nicholas L. in another thread I did not bump, you asked about why I think renter nation. This is really why. We've basically created (artificial) scarcity in housing; all demand is due to concentration of jobs, nimby, covid experiments(raise prices, and see how long people can continue to pay them).
Money goes up. It does not come down.
What I mean by that, if you're the 1.3% percentile in San Fran. Which means you're doing great-- $1 MM a year. You're closer to the 32% percentile than you are the .1% percentile of San Fran. Accumulation in hard (ideally scarce) assets is what the .1%-.5% go after and this is what you're competing with. You're ****ed, so you'll be an inevitable renter unless you arb that monies into a LCOL and retire early-- or better yet internationally arb and be a king.
- 2wNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
mostly agree. Scott Galloway was just on the BP podcast and said basically the same thing: if you own assets you're doing great, and if you don't, you're not.
if we take "renter nation" to mean that it is very difficult to jump from renting to owning, and that it may stay that way or get even more difficult, then OK.
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
mostly agree. Scott Galloway was just on the BP podcast and said basically the same thing: if you own assets you're doing great, and if you don't, you're not.
if we take "renter nation" to mean that it is very difficult to jump from renting to owning, and that it may stay that way or get even more difficult, then OK.
I think the part people are missing, including Scott, is even if you do own now then the increasing costs of ownership is going to be so difficult due to opex/capex that you'll say I don't want this headache-- I'll sell it.
Only buyers with deep(er) pockets will assume it. Then you create an even steeper ratio.
I have been sitting on sidelines since 2022 after picking up 3 assets that year, but I'm in buy mode this year. My issue with last few years is sellers were comping to asset valuations in lower interest rate environment. Now that we've had 12+ months of peak rates, I've seen sellers become more realistic.
sitting on sidelines wasn't a big deal when equities market grew by 20% each year and treasuries were yielding 5%.
- Rental Property Investor · Ithaca, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
I remember hearing people in 2017 and 2018 saying that they were going to wait on the sidelines until it was a good time to buy again. We all know that properties kept going up until mid 2022. Then in 2022 that said that they were going to definitely wait because it was a bad time to buy.
My question is, when is a good time to buy? And how will you recognize it? And if you recognize it is a good time to buy won’t everyone else see that it is a good time to buy too and then jump into the market and drive prices up?
My favorite quote I got off of BP. “The best time to buy real estate was 5 years ago. The next best time is today.” I don’t know who said it but I’ve been quoting this since people ask when the best time to buy.
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy. Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Not really a fair question.
The reason most people could invest in 2010-2020 was because of that (outlier) environment.
So the one's on the sidelines that did not get involved, and or are not coming from a position of strength--- now no longer can invest.
I think the view in 2022 was these high rates are the outlier environment. When in reality, what you see 2023-fwd is reversion to the mean, and folks thought 2010-2020 was the mean.
With such a high barrier of entry, the one's on the sidelines aren't really on the sidelines. They just aren't capable of investing. A minute population is capable of investing, in that outlier environment I'd say the top 40% could invest. Now maybe the top 3% can. As we push closer to the mean, and revert back with some dropback I'd say it's the top 8-10% towards the end of this decade that can invest.
No one is "timing" the market, they just are not qualified.
Nailed it, the great moderation was extremely poor Keynesian economic policy. Subsidizing "investors" has been 1 of many components that have to a stagflationary-esqe economic environment. These policies have been to the detriment of small businesses, the self employed and to large extent true GDP producers. Most investors on this forum are obtuse to the complicated nature of macroeconomics, cause and effect. Moving forward the REI investing world is once again normal. Its comical how few people understand how luck in a particular economic cycle plays into their successes.
Agreed. Anyone claiming people are going to feel the pain later by "sitting on the sidelines" is completely amiss of the real problem. And that's the fact that the main entry point from an intrinsic standpoint on RE was during the outlier period.
Real estate is not an intrinsic day 1 asset. It's a primarily a utility asset, and secondarily a store of value against currency.
Now, three things can happen.
That ship of low rates that sailed could come back? If it does sooner than later, or really at any point, it means destruction in the economy and if you were waiting you are probably impacted by this destruction.
Rates moderate and season here for some time with opex being a persistent headwind. If you enter at this point, be prepared to ride this wave. Most on this forum can't even come up with a downpayment, you can't expect them to ride HOI/tax increases, vacanices, etc., with lower leverage and less cash flow on a property. They'll tap out in 3 months, max.
Rates can increase. I think this will be the short term realization, and anyone that did not wait on the sidelines and jumped in with the intention of a short-term re-fi might have to tap out.
Housing supply is the other function, and my view as rates increase so does inventory in markets that are coming up to pre-pandemic levels and the inverse in the one's that are decreasing.
It's got nothing to do with people being speculative or "sitting on the sidelines". It's got everything to do with people just not be able to afford it, even if they wanted to. That's' the resistance point.
in markets I work for new builds inventory is still historic lows so many are just sitting on their low rate and just staying put although they would like a nicer home.
So with low inventory new construction in my markets has been very good as long as its not starter housing. Those sell but builders generally have to give some pretty aggressive rate buy downs to help those qualify move up luxury is still moving without having to give big concessions. Of course each market is unique.. - 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votesfor me it was based on my experince I started in RE in 1975 and the 10 year cycle seemed to hold true right up to the GFC at least on the left coast.. So in my mind we are at year 13 or so from 2012 bottom. ??? And I was thinking the 2017 10 year was based on the market starting to really crash in 2007
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
for me it was based on my experince I started in RE in 1975 and the 10 year cycle seemed to hold true right up to the GFC at least on the left coast.. So in my mind we are at year 13 or so from 2012 bottom. ??? And I was thinking the 2017 10 year was based on the market starting to really crash in 2007Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!
Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.
Winters is seeing some the same.
Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh
So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay! Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.
Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too, Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy
- Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes1y
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
We all know prices kept going up until mid 2022.
Having sold 90% in 2022 and gone to equities, I'm more gone out the exit tunnel than on the sidelines, but my prediction then to maybe start sniffing around again in '26 still seems about right to me.
If buying right, it's always a good time to buy of course. Hopefully those that stayed on the sideline until the 'time is right' will start underwriting specific deals and recognizing path of progress opportunities that offer multiple operational and exit strategies.
Quote from @Steve Vaughan:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
We all know prices kept going up until mid 2022.
Having sold 90% in 2022 and gone to equities, I'm more gone out the exit tunnel than on the sidelines, but my prediction then to maybe start sniffing around again in '26 still seems about right to me.
If buying right, it's always a good time to buy of course. Hopefully those that stayed on the sideline until the 'time is right' will start underwriting specific deals and recognizing path of progress opportunities that offer multiple operational and exit strategies.
Will your focus be on WA?
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
for me it was based on my experince I started in RE in 1975 and the 10 year cycle seemed to hold true right up to the GFC at least on the left coast.. So in my mind we are at year 13 or so from 2012 bottom. ??? And I was thinking the 2017 10 year was based on the market starting to really crash in 2007Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!
Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.
Winters is seeing some the same.
Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh
So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay! Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.
Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too, Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy
I remember taking Grant line road as a back way to get to 50 and then south lake TAhoe.
I also grew up in cupertino when Stevens Creek and Hwy 9 were still gravel and 280 was not yet built :) I worked for a syndicator in the late 80s and we had projects in the foothills and did the last phase of Lake Wildwood.. those that dont know CA have no clue how much development is there and there is no way its going to crash like a detroit or something.
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
for me it was based on my experince I started in RE in 1975 and the 10 year cycle seemed to hold true right up to the GFC at least on the left coast.. So in my mind we are at year 13 or so from 2012 bottom. ??? And I was thinking the 2017 10 year was based on the market starting to really crash in 2007Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!
Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.
Winters is seeing some the same.
Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh
So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay! Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.
Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too, Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy
I remember taking Grant line road as a back way to get to 50 and then south lake TAhoe.
I also grew up in cupertino when Stevens Creek and Hwy 9 were still gravel and 280 was not yet built :) I worked for a syndicator in the late 80s and we had projects in the foothills and did the last phase of Lake Wildwood.. those that dont know CA have no clue how much development is there and there is no way its going to crash like a detroit or something.
I know, why do you think I talk to you like a local lol.
I used to swim in steven creek reservoir!
1 of my kids went to prospect high. I just did a commercial TI on Wolfe rd a month ago
I've got a house by Tahoe....pioneer trail
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
for me it was based on my experince I started in RE in 1975 and the 10 year cycle seemed to hold true right up to the GFC at least on the left coast.. So in my mind we are at year 13 or so from 2012 bottom. ??? And I was thinking the 2017 10 year was based on the market starting to really crash in 2007Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
Thanks Jay, theres still alot of slab on grade mcmansion going up from folsom t ok elk grove along grant line road....I mean alot!
Lathrop at I5 and 205 is the same.
Winters is seeing some the same.
Seems los banos n hollister building has slowed thogh
So many apartments are getting finished in the south bay! Lawrence expressway is a sea of stack n paks.
Youd be amazed how many apartments in campbell too, Bascom ave is getting gentrified like crazy
I remember taking Grant line road as a back way to get to 50 and then south lake TAhoe.
I also grew up in cupertino when Stevens Creek and Hwy 9 were still gravel and 280 was not yet built :) I worked for a syndicator in the late 80s and we had projects in the foothills and did the last phase of Lake Wildwood.. those that dont know CA have no clue how much development is there and there is no way its going to crash like a detroit or something.
I know, why do you think I talk to you like a local lol.
I used to swim in steven creek reservoir!
1 of my kids went to prospect high. I just did a commercial TI on Wolfe rd a month ago
I've got a house by Tahoe....pioneer trail
when one could we rode our bikes to Stevens Creek to swim :) we lived behing all american market Blaney and Bolinger .. Anyway back to regularly scheduled program !! PS I am looking for a cabin in the Graeagle area for summertimes.
Quote from @Nick Rutkowski:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
I remember hearing people in 2017 and 2018 saying that they were going to wait on the sidelines until it was a good time to buy again. We all know that properties kept going up until mid 2022. Then in 2022 that said that they were going to definitely wait because it was a bad time to buy.
My question is, when is a good time to buy? And how will you recognize it? And if you recognize it is a good time to buy won’t everyone else see that it is a good time to buy too and then jump into the market and drive prices up?
My favorite quote I got off of BP. “The best time to buy real estate was 5 years ago. The next best time is today.” I don’t know who said it but I’ve been quoting this since people ask when the best time to buy.
Just to point out few people in 2012 were thinking 2007 was a better time to purchase RE than 2012. Property values and interest rate (but with higher standards) were lower in 2012 than 2007.
In general it is often true, but not always.
- Real Estate Agent · Sisters, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
It kills me but I recommending to some potential clients to not buy currently. Small mom and pop rentals, is the world I have lived in and you can't get cashflow unless you put down 50% or so down in my area. I think there is a risk of not doing anything rents going up or interest rates coming down. But I don't see that happening in the next year even two. I also think the market is so slow that if an investor is paying attention they will see a trend forming and can react in before there is material shift in values. I always tell people for the record I have been nothing but wrong about the market for 15 years and I always buy and always hold. That is the true idiots action plan for building wealth in real estate.
- Rental Property Investor · Ithaca, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1yAgreed, if you were an unlucky one who bought in 07 and had to sell in 08 or 09 then that’s no fun.
Quote from @Dan H.:
Quote from @Nick Rutkowski:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
I remember hearing people in 2017 and 2018 saying that they were going to wait on the sidelines until it was a good time to buy again. We all know that properties kept going up until mid 2022. Then in 2022 that said that they were going to definitely wait because it was a bad time to buy.
My question is, when is a good time to buy? And how will you recognize it? And if you recognize it is a good time to buy won’t everyone else see that it is a good time to buy too and then jump into the market and drive prices up?
My favorite quote I got off of BP. “The best time to buy real estate was 5 years ago. The next best time is today.” I don’t know who said it but I’ve been quoting this since people ask when the best time to buy.
Just to point out few people in 2012 were thinking 2007 was a better time to purchase RE than 2012. Property values and interest rate (but with higher standards) were lower in 2012 than 2007.
In general it is often true, but not always.
If I had the chance to buy in 07, 08, and 09 I would but I was in high school. With 2025 prices, buying in 07 and holding till today would be a wise purchases. - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes1y
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
I remember hearing people in 2017 and 2018 saying that they were going to wait on the sidelines until it was a good time to buy again. We all know that properties kept going up until mid 2022. Then in 2022 that said that they were going to definitely wait because it was a bad time to buy.
My question is, when is a good time to buy? And how will you recognize it? And if you recognize it is a good time to buy won’t everyone else see that it is a good time to buy too and then jump into the market and drive prices up?
When people made statements such as this, they were already doomed to fail.
Because what they truly were saying is they were going to wait until others are not buying, to buy themself.
To wait until, the actions of others, made things look "cheap".
That they wanted "Cheap" buys, not intelligent buy's, not data driven buys, not future casting buys, just "cheap".
And "cheap" is a thing most seen and realized looking back. In review. Something of "wow, that '20' buy was really "cheap" looking back vs where it went to in '23'.
Post '08' people had the luxury to analyze for "cheap" vs the pre-'08' pricing and feel a sense of security in there current price acquisitions.
Now, that's gone. No simple lazy-hacks to say it's worth-it because it's "cheap" vs previous price. Now were back to a mare normal world where a person has to have that skill of forecasting, analysis, ability to "read the tea leaves" for where it's all going and if todays acquisition makes sense.
And this group is refusing to learn, evolve.
What they are really saying is they don't have the skills to act in a market other than post calamity so, there just gonna do nothing instead of evolve.
- Rental Property Investor · St. Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes1y
Quote from @Alan F.:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Shiloh Lundahl:
@V.G Jason that wasn’t my experience. I knew of a lot of people that were investing between 2010 to 2017. The math for investing was pretty obvious to everybody that it would be hard to lose money by buying a home for 50% to 70% of the rebuild cost. But then as the home prices kept going up, they decided to get out of the market, thinking that there would either be another crash or home prices had gotten too high at that point. They then missed out on several more years of growth because they got out of the game and waited on the sidelines for things to look better.
2010 to 2012 was the period that cash investors were the players or those with IRA keep in mind investor loans were still basically non existent in those years for all those expect very well to do Investors beginners were not getting investor loans.
Myself I thought about 2017 was going to be kind of the end of the 10 year cycle and I actually put a presentation together called the Pivot looking at alternative ways to invest in RE. I missed that one.. But I kept doing what I have always done did not quit but thought things would change.
As for 2023 and 2024 those were by far the best years of my career.. And 25 is going to be just as good.. WE create value so different bizz model and my capital partners ( I provide the capital) have done equally well in value add.. in my mind what slowed was the vanilla rental real estate bizz.. we all know that rates rose higher than rent.. so cash flow got squeezed .. Also keep in mind when I started funding investment rentals in 2002 for CA investors 100.00 a month cash flow was the goal and accepted.. and even break even or a little negative was fully acceptable in markets with historic appreciation..
RE is always changing and if you have only one niche then well your limited in opportunities and subject to the conditions that exist at the time for that strategy.I think you brought up a great point with the 10 yr cycle. I know it's not necessarily clad in stone but things are certainly different.
Everyone; what's your take on the 10yr cycle and where we are?
I'm not trying to time the market. ..just interested in people's opinions
The real estate market is a 17-18 year cycle. It's been like that in the US for a long time. Peak was 2006 and this peak was 2023, so this one was 16.5-17 years. Expect a 4-5 year down/flat market before a slow climb up.
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