3 numbers I run before bringing a flip to an investor

Atlanta, Georgia
Rehabbing & House Flipping
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3 numbers I run before bringing a flip to an investor

Asija Watson
Real Estate Agent · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 2 votes

I work with investors here in Atlanta with off-market fix and flip deals, and one thing I've learned is that the deals that actually work depend on the same 3 numbers.

  1. 1. ARV based on good comps

    1. - I like to pull comps that actually sold within the last 3-6 months not just the ones that were listed. I also use a good comparable radius. Using the nicest house that sold miles away is misleading to use as a comp.

  2. 2. Rehab cost with wiggle room

    1. - Everyone budgets the renovation, but few budget for the unexpected. I've started treating this as a part of the actual budget so there are no surprises later on.

  3. 3. Days on market estimated based on your exit strategy

    1. - A comp selling for the right price doesn't mean it sold fast. Checking the average days on market at your price point is a game changer. Holding cost eat away at margins quietly and its usually where people lose money.

I know that none of this is groundbreaking news, but I see deals fall apart all of the time when these numbers get rushed or overlooked.

What other numbers do you check when running number on your flips?

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Travis Main
Lender · Orlando, FL · Member since 2023 · 220 posts · 183 votes
1mo

Hey Asija, Another one that gets overlooked is the downside ARV. If the expected ARV is $400K, I like seeing what happens to the deal at $380K or $360K and with an extra 2–3 months of holding costs. If the deal still works reasonably well under that scenario, you have a much better margin for error.

Especially in the current market, I think profit margin under the downside scenario can tell you more about the quality of a flip than the projected profit under the best-case scenario.

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  • Travis Main
    Lender · Orlando, FL · Member since 2023 · 220 posts · 183 votes
    1mo

    Hey Asija, Another one that gets overlooked is the downside ARV. If the expected ARV is $400K, I like seeing what happens to the deal at $380K or $360K and with an extra 2–3 months of holding costs. If the deal still works reasonably well under that scenario, you have a much better margin for error.

    Especially in the current market, I think profit margin under the downside scenario can tell you more about the quality of a flip than the projected profit under the best-case scenario.

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    • Asija Watson
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 2 votes
      1mo

      @Travis Main Great add! Best-case profit tells you what's possible, downside profit tells you what to expect. I don't always stress test the downside like you're describing here. I might start running the downside profit on every deal as well moving forward. Appreciate you sharing that

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  • Nicholas FloydBusiness Member
    NY · Member since 2026 · 232 posts · 86 votes
    1mo

    Another number I’d add is the cost of capital and available liquidity. A deal can look great on ARV and rehab numbers, but if the investor is using expensive short-term money or doesn’t have enough reserves for overruns and extra holding time, the margin can disappear quickly.

    I like to look at the projected profit after financing costs, plus how much backup capital is available if the project goes 10–15% over budget or takes a few months longer than expected. On the business funding side, that’s where having access to things like business lines of credit or 0% APR business credit can sometimes give qualified investors another layer of flexibility instead of relying entirely on cash or high-cost capital.

    Good underwriting isn’t just “does the deal make money?” It’s also “does the investor have enough capital to survive the deal if everything doesn’t go exactly as planned?”

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  • Stacy RaskinBusiness Member
    Lender · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 508 votes
    1mo

    In many areas, properties are staying on the market longer than expected, so being conservative in calculating the ARV and how long it will take to sell is a good idea. Having a contingency in the budget is also a good idea.

    Especially if a new real estate investor working with a new contractor and team even more important to be conservative on how much it will cost to rehab the property and how long the property will take to sell since there are more likely things to come up that are unexpected. I'm also seeing investors pivot from selling to holding the property as a rental when their original plan was to sell the property. 

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