Why to invest in Notes?

Why to invest in Notes?

Dion DePaoliPro Member
Real Estate Broker · Northwest Indiana, IN · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes

I am not sure there is really a good thread here in BP which address this question.  I know there are many blogs but those do not provide expanded conversations around the idea, IMO.  

If you are a seasoned, new or potential loan investor regardless of performance, skill, knowledge or training chime in.  I know in advance, that this may be a tall request and many/some will not want to chime in, but I think it would do a good service to really start addressing the expectations that are flowing in the background and help put some light on realistic approaches and ideas to some of the core reasons folks consider jumping it, do jump in or stay away from investing in whole loans/notes.  

Some general questions:
What is attracting you to this asset class opposed to others?   

What are the expectations that you have, think you have or may have heard in regards to the amount or level of return one can expect?  

What is the amount of time a single investment will take or do you plan for?  Or your general investment horizon per asset.  Perhaps why that is your target as well.

What is the target amount of capital you believe you need or plan to work with or do work with?

How do you believe you will exit your asset investment specifically?  Perhaps a better way to say this is what is your most hopeful exist, highest best, as you know it.

How does that exit affect your return in your opinion?


I am not trying to sandbag anybody.  I really think this conversation needs to take place.  I hold this general conversation with many of the new investors I have talked with and some of those have been from here on BP.  

The fun and familiar motto is something to the effect of "Be the bank" - well, what does that really mean to you?  

The more open dialog, the better.

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property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
12y

@Dion DePaoli know that I read all yours posts, appreciate their value and your attempt to cover the questions posed. When I see folks talk about notes its almost like talking about old cars or a "box of chocolates" as Forest famously said. We talking 246 GT Dino Ferrari, 1939 Packard, 68 Pontiac Firebird or 1970 AMC Gremlin= owner carry, 1st position, 2nds, under water Vs. equity, performing Vs. default seniors, purchasing partials. They are incorrectly dumped into the generalized discussions. I don't think note investments are for greenhorns, especial NPN 2nds. Start with a simple OWC and work up.

1-Why=The past years of hard money lending have given an opportunity to compare both notes and REI. @Bill Gulley already mentioned the lack of toilets in notes. Rentals, whether commercial or residential, require active involvement Vs. little involvement in the notes(thanks to servicers). Availability of NPN 2nds over next 3-5 years is a factor because I can't compete with Oak Hill and buy $659 million from Freddie Mac at .76 UBP or Lone Star Funds-John Grayken, paid almost 66 cents per dollar of unpaid balance at the June HUD auction, winning bids on all 16 loan pools of NPN 1st's. I'm a minnow see.

2-Note returns= vary as well based on goals and product type. 15-20% yields for 1st's(its fine, boring but its mailbox money). Underwater 2nds can be a total loss to a 600% return. Our investors worst NPN 2nd pool was a 25% return to date.

3-Time=performing notes take about 15 minutes a month to account for each one at most. Pools need about 2 years on NPN 2nds to work through with servicer and take patience.

4-6 Investment amount and exits= It might help to answer the rest of the questions as a BEST CASE, hold for long term, cash flow, NPN no equity 2nd scenario. The other obvious exit to long term hold is a sale of 6 month seasoned reperformed notes at a 15-18 yield. Compare note potential to REI potential. Will have to generalize to make this work.

Assumptions NPN 2nds underwater based on past experience:

Price of notes: 20% of UPB (some are cheaper, some are more expensive so pick a blended number)

Face interest of note: 10%

Face value of note: $70,000

Percentage of complete loss of notes: 20%

Percentage of settled of notes: 20%

Percentage of settlement rate: 180%. i.e. 100k note, 20k purchase, 36k pay off

Percentage of re-performing notes: 60% at 7%

Terms of re-performing notes: 7% interest, principal paid off when property is re-financed or sold.

Term of performing note till property sold or refinanced: 15 years (historically 7-9 years but these may be less apt to sell due to value issue)

Example:

Buy 5 million face value of notes for 1 million.

20% are wiped out leaving 4 million of notes

20% pay off for 360k leaving 3 million of notes

Basis; 1 mill

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Little Rock, AR · Member since 2010 · 628 posts · 251 votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @David Kanarek:

    I am beginning to understand why so many people, including myself, are reluctant to post on the forums.

    First of all, after being made an unwilling part of a note investment survey, I need to correct the record. I do not own any notes with less than a 12.5% yield. I do have a 10% return on a note fund but that is a different animal. May I respectfully suggest a bit more attention to accuracy if we are going to attemp sweeping conclusions to those willing to share such information.

    Secondly and more importantly why would anyone such a return unless they did not understand or bother to carefully evaluate. In my case, I was able to increase the fixed income yield in my portfolio from 2% to 12.5% for my investors. Am I earning 100%? no. But that was not the objective of this bond proxy!

    You should have been around when we were allowed to discuss politics. Those were the good ole days!!

    Don

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    @Dion DePaoli 

    what bomb post? Am I getting some trashing? Not really sure what you're saying, in one sentence you have 61 words!

    I thought I omitted institutional investing, certainly an investment opportunity, not everyone can deal directly with a note holder.

    Let's not forget, I made money servicing notes and holding them, it's all good, just saying if you want killer deals, buy, refi.

    And no, it's not something that is only possible from a historic perspective, I pulled one out the first of August for a refi.

    The note world is a big place, many strategies may be employed, but rules of finance, like physics, says the faster you get your money back with a profit the higher your yield is on that transaction. I don't think I giving any secrets away. Didn't mean to hit your buttons, no intent to, and my quote seemed to be with Will's post, so I'm kinda lost on that.

    I don't (didn't) look for DIL deals, they happen, trying to acquire a note with a 10-15% yield to chase a DIL isn't profitable from the note perspective, there needs to be more there to clear the costs of holding, repairs and turning the collateral. What was laughable is the ones seeking to gain the property as a flip, should have phrased that differently. Certainly there are exceptions, either one of us could write pages to that matter, but I won't.

    Don, funny, but it is the fault of the politicians, we just won't talk about it, LOL  :) 

  • Investor · North Richland Hills, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @Bill Gulley:
    Let's not forget, I made money servicing notes and holding them, it's all good, just saying if you want killer deals, buy, refi.

    Hi Bill, 

    Could you please provide a step-by-step example of this "buy, refi" strategy?

    Let's start with a note (PN or NPN - you tell me) with a UPB of $100K and 5% original APR. The property FMV is ... (put your number here)

    How much would you buy this note for?

    Once bought, how do you refinance to get all your UPB in 45 days as you wrote in the earlier post?

    What other parties are involved in this transaction?

    Thanks
    Nick

  • Dion DePaoliPro Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Northwest Indiana, IN · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    12y

      @David Kanarek  again, sorry no offense was meant in some general grouping.  Hopefully that doesn't deter participation.

    @Bill Gulley

    For me personally, I am not offended by posts.  For those readers who don't know, Bill and I have founder ourselves in many same threads.  There is no ill will or ruffles.  I look forward to the day we have a beer together.      

    @David R. (can't tag two Davids in same post for some reason) - All that said above, that was pretty funny!

    I did make a Spiderman reference, but I digress.  Not too much more free time today.  I will be back.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    Well, back on the road again.....

    Nick, there isn't time or space in a forum to pin a value on your example.

    Dealing with a note holder, might be an investor, but a holder from a seller financed note is much different than dealing with a broker.

    I do the financial due diligence, audit and title/

    I then look at collateral

    I come to an agreement to purchase, on various levels, just buy it, to being subject to items

    A sub-to item will be a letter to the borrower telling them the loan is being sold and the new payment address two months later (you may be required 90 days notice) with my phone number.

    Payments on a performing note go to the old holder during that notice period and are fully discounted. 

    Usually, the borrower calls me, (I give a statement for the old holder to reply to when they get called, as they will) Unlike dealing with notes from brokers with disclosures and non-disclosures the seller is under these restrictions as to our agreement.

    When I talk to them I explain I'm buying/bought the note. I ask them if they would like to shave off X dollars and refinance on better terms, the answer is mostly, like always, yes.

    I pre qualify on the phone, I explain they will need to make application, ask about any credit issues and make an appointment to see the property or send someone to look.

    So far I may have 3 days in it to the point of determining if they can qualify as well as the property. Maybe 3 real hours.

    Then to roads, buy setting up settlement and getting those docs ready to the extent an assignment is made or I could do less and just use the assignment to use prior to settlement.

    I get with the borrower and begin the refi, usually 4 weeks conventionally or 30 days.

    Loan settlement on the refi is set.

    Prior to closing I file my assignment option or note purchase docs and give that to my closer, giving them the payoff.

    Now, I can buy and wait for my refi or I can tell the note seller that I'll see him an hour prior to the refi for the note purchase settlement.

    I close from either direction I going have a refi commitment.

    I do my thing with the note seller, then my new borrower refis,  

    Does this look like the old double closing (he he he) yes, it is!

    If I fronted money I'm paid back in an hour knowing funds are there.

    I can also use the payoff funds to pay the note seller.

    Along the way through the process of those subject to items, I can determine from due diligence what I might do with the deal. I can buy and hold, I can refinance conventionally, refi with private lenders, if the buyer is in the mood to walk away I can take a DIL, if the seller wants to sell the place I might partner to make repairs, advance more to get a sale accomplished within a time line. Seldom would I buy for the honor of foreclosing and messing with the dirt.  

    I have had brokers who I have worked with explaining what I was doing and required contact with the borrower, they were fine with it (mostly because I was a lender and knew the compliance issues of contacting borrowers and could back up what I screwed up) today I doubt any broker on the institutional side gives all the information much less consent to contact their borrower. The brokers (and banks) would also have a borrower come in as we could all meet. I'm solving their problem.

    The best deals are discounts and paying the seller with the refi money, obviously.

    There's the step by step, basically, what I said to whom and when and the docs used, well..... you'll have to wait for the BP book on that I guess, ask Brandon. :)

    Not even mentioning quality swaps, trades, allocations to partners, how to find motivated note holders/sellers, servicing or collection guarantees, buying as a servicer while using a sub servicer, "wholesaling" the REO or cash for keys options and I'm not getting into modifications as that has endless possibilities.

    Now, back to the mundane..... conventional meaty stuff.  

  • Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 6 posts · 7 votes
    12y

    @Dion DePaoli none taken ???? I am still enjoying the discovery process & trying to always know when and what I do not know, perhaps the best first step to learning?

  • Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 6 posts · 7 votes
    12y

    @Dion DePaoli none taken ???? I am still enjoying the discovery process & trying to always know when and what I do not know, perhaps the best first step to learning?

  • Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 6 posts · 7 votes
    12y

    P.S. The ???? Was to have been a cute face. Oh well.......

  • Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 6 posts · 7 votes
    12y

    I do have a question.

    For those "newbies" like myself who believe in the power of a well run note business, but but who do not feel comfortable or do not have the resources to get their own operation started, what are some of the close alternatives (other than the PPR note fund that I previously mentioned and do happily participate in)?

  • Queen Creek, AZ · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    @David Kanarek If you are short capital you cold try finding sellers and brokering the notes to some of the larger buyers, that might earn enough capital to buy a few notes for yourself. 

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    Wooooooooah Bob E, not unless you are a mortgage broker, trying to get newbies in jail?

    Actually, laws have changed, I understand weighing your risks with some element of state law, but I really suggest anyone dealing in notes to understand what brokering includes and I don't mean by investors reading laws for themselves but getting with an attorney or regulator that can tell you if some activity requires a license.

    These are federal laws, that means big fines and/or jail, it also means big attorney fees in federal court, this ain't no traffic ticket!

    Basically, look to the IRS interpretation of "being in the business of" something as opposed to investing. Investing is done with YOUR money, not other people's money, on YOUR account, not on those of others.

    Now, you can work with a broker as an investor, if you are a party to that note you can sell it to or through them, you can buy or participate with a broker, but you can't be in the position of a broker without the license and compliance being met.

    There are note operators out there that have done things for years that are now illegal, look to the CFPB, and don't think you're off the hook saying you deal in commercial paper, there are still brokerage requirements. 

    Besides, any broker worth dealing with would never buy a note through a non-broker who was not holding the note.

    If you're low on funds, consider my recent post about a wholesale approach to notes having the note refinanced by a bank or mortgage broker. :) 

  • southeast, NM · Member since 2013 · 89 posts · 118 votes
    12y

    @Bill Gulley

    The title of this thread is Why to INVEST in Notes. Maybe I look at it all wrong, but when I think of investing in notes, I don’t view it as a business to be run. Your example can be compared to a daytrader in stocks who doesn’t have any position at the end of the day.Who considers a daytrader an “investor” in Apple when they have no position each night yet trade 30-40,000 shares each day? It’s a job – much like your example of doing a note refi is a job (no matter how long it takes you to do.)

    Part of this thread was meant to discover investor’s expectations of return – those investors you find laughable who tie up their money for years. You don’t bring much to the discussion with your bragging rights other than to frustrate those who really would like to find cash flowing paper they don’t have to think/worry about and can just cash their check each month. It’s your business, your livelihood. I would argue many reading this thread are not looking to start a new business, but want to find safe, stable good cash flowing paper to invest in.I for one was led to believe (reading the blog posts on BP) that one can find 15% cash on cash passive paper easily. Turns out it is not so easy – at least finding quality paper that pays that much.

    Real expectations of returns are important to know, even if each investor’s returns are different. Over time, certain asset classes and sub-classes will have a reversion to the mean – and you have to start somewhere. Having huge expectations usually leads to frustration. What we want from experienced people like you and Dion is a good handle on future expectations for this asset class and/or subclasses. That helps us decide if it is an avenue to pursue as an investment or business.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    Mark, now dang people take note! That's the way to point out my errors and disagree!!!  Well done!

    You're exactly right Mark, it is a job type transaction and not investing. In some states it could require a license if your sole or majority income was derived from such activities.

    IMO, institutional notes will yield about 5 to 8, maybe 10 points over the note rate, to hold in portfolio. Equity notes will be another 5 to 10 points, as you'll get up to a 20% discount of a good performing privately originated note. This is dealing directly with a note holder, a broker will have a slice of that. Seconds can be another add, about 5 points all being for a performing loan.

    NPNs can be trash for 10% of UPB or 80%+. A prime RE location going to foreclosure can go much higher, the note holder may only get the note amount and costs due, but may have a buyer waiting. The property buyer may have a future use and might be willing to cut an individual in for future business, institutional lenders won't go there. Suggest you stay at arms length too.

    After a property held as collateral is sold, the lender is not entitled to excess proceeds and a private note holder needs to only to show the price was reasonable for the market, individuals may not be required to list or auction collateral. Check your state laws.

    Equity notes go back to the lender under the UCC as an installment sale as it is not a completed sale upon default, a property reverts back to the seller. When a note buyer purchase that note, cash is injected to that % of the sale, the borrower is still entitled to any overage from a sale. Most seller financed notes that go south, the borrower walks or they may agree to sell if the note is in default, if it's performing loan you have a portfolio loan. Depending on the cash injected in the note purchase you might be in the seller's shoes entitled to the property or a lender's shoes, required to sell the collateral. Installment sales involving notes should be done by buying the property from the note holder together with the note and subject to the installment sale, this gives you the ability to follow through as the owner of the property upon default of the sale.

    You can hold a note for a year and then go the refi route, that will be investing as the longer you hold the note the less brokerage aspects will play on what you do. No one says an investor must hold a note to maturity. With that, you can play with your calculators fo the different asset classes and see what you might do to increase the yield. Keep in mind we only talk about yield as an annual return but in future years you can increase your economic position and cash flow by selling or refinancing.

    Being a broker is much more profitable than being a passive investor, but passive note investing is great too. :) 

  • Bill B.Pro Member
    Camarillo, CA · Member since 2013 · 217 posts · 86 votes
    12y

    @Dion DePaoli 

    Sorry for the delay in responding to your request for details on my deal gone bad.  That was not a note, it was a fix and flip. I don't want to throw an unrelated tangent into your thread, so let's just leave in with the fact that I made every newbie mistake possible and was upside down between 30k and 40k.

    Someday, when I grow up, I want to try fix and flips again.....even here in SoCal.  But I don't have the pockets or the stomach to try that again right now.

    That experience is what drove me toward notes. My "partial loss" (i.e. the exposure was far higher) in that deal could have purchased between one and three (or even four) 1st TD NPN; spreading my risk considerably.

    The chief stumbling block I see in NPN is making sure that I don't run amok with the Byzantine Hell created by Leviathan and its' minions.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    As to an alternative, relatively safe, you could buy bank stock, kidding..... might look to hard money lenders, many will take your money to loan out. But, you're looking at a note rate, simply creating a loan.

    Mortgage paper is like any other investment, the higher the risk or potential risk, the higher the reward.

    Seems, after a couple days and looking at this thread, some are expecting to get into some venture that has little risk and high rewards, not going to happen generally as that defies the physics of investing. I say generally because there are exceptions.

    The exception will never be offered like a mutual fund, you won't find it as a well managed fund with you being in a passive position or at least hands off.

    The exceptions are made, you have to create that environment, meaning identify the winning horse. Brokers or hard money lenders may have some good customers, they may pay a higher than usual rate to use your money when they are limited on funds and a good customer they want to keep happy needs funding. It happens in much larger loans too.

    This can give you an opportunity to get a premium rate but it will be short term unless you negotiate differently with that broker, they will be paying you off with cheaper money as it comes in again.

    There are developers, builders, rehab operations or consumers who seek money and go belly up or hit some wall and they need to cover their tail with their investors, we have one here on BP. When they get sideways in their Ponzi scheme, they need to save face quickly or things can get serious,

    They have notes, performing or slow paying they slice up putting more than one investor in participations.  Might obtain these interests at a discount. In other words, you're buying a partial interest in the note at a discount. However, I said Ponzi as these borrowers are often paying one investor with new money from a new or another investor. Many brokers do this at they lack knowledge in keeping reserves, margins and maturity distributions managed. The risk in dealing with these types can be very high, especially if you simply fall for their pitch, that being everything is well secured with assignments made properly and we have no money problems.

    You really need to know what you're doing playing with these brokers or money conduits, while they really don't know what they are doing and while they will lie and mislead you, perhaps unknowingly, they are a distressed borrower often needing to be pulled out of the fire.

    To safely play participating with others in a loan I'd suggest you have an attorney.

    A developer/flipper type, that has some project also has a revolving door of investors. The revolving door is one investor's term is up the maturity has been reached to pay out a participant but the project is still underway, it's not completed. Their money is secured by the project, but no one can be secured equally unless reserves are pledged as well, generally not done and this issue is smoothed over in the pitch.

    Basically, I'm saying there are sharks and if you know more than they do you can go fishing for them. Need to be able to identify these guys, a big indicator is them soliciting funds when there is no new project involved, what they are doing is feeding the ones at the table. Replace someone at the table requiring a higher rate and with additional collateral!

    OTHERWISE,  there really isn't any safe return, diversification limits the effects of a loss but a loss is still a loss.  Accepting losses lowers the portfolio yield. Taking the good with the bad is part of the game working through brokers, they can't just sell the cream and get stuck with sour milk.

    The solution is to cherry pick notes from any source you can find, be it a broker, an HML, an estate, a trust, note holder or other sources.

    If you have no interest in learning and at least getting to the level of where most brokers are then you better stick with a good broker, IMO. Especially in NPNs.

  • Dion DePaoliPro Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Northwest Indiana, IN · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    12y

    With some time this morning let's continue the thread a bit.

    First let's chat about performing yield.  A generalized blanket idea I tend to subscribe to that any loan which is in trade for a yield that is greater than 12% is going to have some elevated risks to it.  A loan which is trading for more than a 15% yield is more than likely not going to perform enough without a good deal of interaction to accomplish the expected yield.  A yield priced anywhere close to 20% or more is likely a loan you should stay away from most often not calculated correctly for marketing intent.  The sweet spot between 8% to 12% is mitigated by equity.  North of 12% is typically determined by continuity of performance.  (easy way to say it for me)

    There is a noticeable sweet spot around the 12% mark which seems to gather attention.  I have looked at some seller financed deals lately around that mark.  I will also note, when we look to sell cash flowing loans we tend to be targeting this range as well.  Though, the two ideas tend to be drastically different even though the yield is the same.

    I have recently looked at some seller financed paper.  From several different sources and in several different geographical areas.  The common theme, which I think is a common idea out there is buying real property, fixing the property and then originating the paper with an intent to sell said paper.  The common discount idea has been around the 10% mark.  Bare in mind the discount begets the yield, so the paper is in the realm of 10%.  I am yet to see a well originated loan in this arena.  Well, what does that mean?

    I think all of the Dobb Frank including Safe Act, Qualified Mortgage and Ability to Repay rules have created a confusion for investors.  Somewhere along the line brokers became bankers and underwriters.  While I am sure there are some brokers who are good at banking mortgages and some brokers who are very good underwriters that is not the majority nor the norm.  It never has been.  The shops that cater to the SF work are not the norm and are usually a bi-product of trying to 'flip' somebody's money.  Frankly, most broker shops write conventional paper.  Loans that are destine for Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie ("big investors").  Let's contrast by starting there.

    In the typical conventional retail shop the broker takes application.  The broker pulls credit and then submits the loan to their pre-approved investors usually through some automated system and gets back a decision of eligibility.  The two greatest examples of this are submitting loans to Fannie and Freddie which use Desktop Underwriter ("DU") and Loan Prospector ("LP") or both can use Desktop Originator ("DO").  In general many Lenders, although more today than before, do not actually or can not actually sell a loan directly into any of the big investors.  The loan must be originated by a Lender who has a contract with an Investor who will buy the loan and that investor, usually a large institution, will pool and sell the loans into the big investors.  This is a detail to understand because "Lender A" makes the loan with the intent to sell to "Investor B" who buys the loan with intent to sell to "Big Investor C".  The loan is priced accordingly for all of that predetermined action in the secondary market.  As such, the typical broker/loan officer can lack skill and experience in really qualifying and underwriting the Borrower.  At each sale (A to B and B to C) there are checks and balances in place to re-underwrite or verify the file.  This is on top of the volumes of guidelines that follow any of the big investors.  For no better way to say it quickly, a broker to some extent can throw an application at the wall and see if it sticks.  Usually with little to no recourse for the broker or his shop.  The actual Lender A company may have some issues and so will Investor B, in general of loosing the capacity to continue to make and sell loans upstream.  Sometimes this does come back down the broker ship but Investor B needs deal flow, so typically they handle offsetting that in house.  

    The broker typically has a processor at their office who aides the broker in sending out the application packet for signature and collecting the borrower documents to submit to Investor B.  Investor B has the actual underwriter with guidelines which fit Big Investor C that often have restricting qualities.  This creates a variety in the market place but helps Investor B target deal flow which has a high propensity to be purchased by Big Investor C.  For the layman borrower, this results in having lenders who, in example, will give a Fannie Mae loan with a 620 credit score or a 660 credit score.  Fannie Mae is still the Big Investor at the end of the pipe, the variance is the work of Investor B in the middle.  Moral of the story, nobody in Investor B place in the chain can afford to loose their contract to sell into the Big Investors.  That is usually certain death. 

    Now, all of this is not to say that the broker shop will not make strides to become efficient knowing the guidelines due to their loan volume of what Investor B accept.  Usually they do.  Typically the broker ship can work with more than one Investor B.  So where one Investor B will not like a credit score of 620 another one may take that score.  Again, both loans eventually end up at the same place.  

    So, why is this important to understand or know?  

    Well, I have seen this massive onset of imputed skill to lots of brokers and their shops.  A skill that they do not get overly exposed to or have to live up to.  The broker and the shop is not versed in compliance outside of their bubble.  Investor B and Big Investor C handle all of the heavy lifting for underwriting, disclosures, acceptable paperwork, compliance and regulation.  This means that the broker, their shop and including perhaps the processor grows a skill in responding to a standard not setting a standard.  A loan document is turned in to the underwriter at Investor B, say an income document, clearly the broker finds it acceptable otherwise it would not be turned in.  The underwriter looks at the document and says, "No" this does not work or it does not do what the intended purpose of the document is.  At times, the underwriter will give a response denying something and providing an alternative to supplement or compliment an item in order for the idea to be satisfied.  Again, like in income.  Billy Borrower makes $2,000 extra cash a month mowing lawns.  A letter from Billy doe not really prove this so perhaps a bank statement showing deposit are needed.  The underwriter responds with the denial of the item and provides an idea for the supplement.  (There are some typical alternatives to standard documentation known my the majority)

    So, this check and balance system helps to create a better file or deny a borrower for too much risk.  These mechanics are nowhere to be found in the Seller Financed arena.  That can lead to some very poor loan making decisions.  In the context of fixed income investing the higher the propensity for all payments as agreed, the less risk, the less rate of return.  The best example of risk free rate of return would be a US Treasury.  Those are pretty low in terms of return, however, you will not loose your principal.  

    So loans use this idea of down payment to do two things:  (1) incentive the borrower with fear of loss to make payments as agreed or deter default (2) offset the cost of default.  (that is cost, not risk).  The important idea there for us is number 2.  How high is the risk of default for a borrower who puts down a small amount of money and has a high interest rate?  That is sort of rhetorical, we can just say "pretty high".  

    We can see in Hard Money loans (or some private) when the borrowers capacity to repay is not taken into consideration the mitigating factor is equity. A larger down payment is required. Let's just ballpark that into 35%. So a HML tends to flirt with the LTV of 65%. Interestingly enough, a conforming loan - specifically a loan which is eligible for Fannie/Freddie carries a requirement of 20%. Loans which provide for a lesser amount of down payment than 20% carry with them an offsetting factor. So for Ginnie Mae loans, you may know one of their core products as FHA Loans, provide a lesser amount of down payment by giving the Investor insurance. The level of that insurance is related to the amount of down payment in its majority. This gives us the 2.5% down FHA Loan program. (This is not meant to cover all loan products, just the general idea) The insurance provides the capacity to recover funds not capable of being recovered in the event of a default disposition. Imagine buying a NPN at 97.5% LTV with no discount, you will not recover your purchase price, let alone any advances made to disposition.

    So, here comes the humdinger.  The 'Whiteback' (my new term for newbie loan investor - good/bad?) seems to only be discounting to achieve yield.  The Seller of that SF paper seems to only be marketing to the same idea, yield.  What happened to the risk of default?  It will take years of payments for the borrower to earn equity to insulate the risk of loss due to default.  The key issue there, the investor (you) need to be the underwriter and not simply accept all things thrown at you.  Are you simply taking the file as is because that is how it is or are you discounting properly?  Are you discounting for the 'right' reason?

    There is a reason 8% is in that first paragraph up there (way up there).  If we look at vintage loans from 2001 to 2008 rates range in the 6% area.  As those are discounted due to default risk the yield that is spit out is 8% to 10%.  I think folks think it works the other way around at least for capital markets.  Where yield drives the discount.  That is not true.  Is yield kept in mind?  Yes.  Is yield the driver to discount?  No, default comes first and then propensity along with continuity of payments.  Default is the biggest driver.  Why?  Default is the most expensive thing that can happen.  Nobody talks about a 12% loan that didn't pay.

    Hopefully some of you see the idea here.  Just because we received a nice yield (or chance to) doesn't mean we should ignore the biggest elephant in the room when it comes to a loan.  Default risk.  A Mortgagee can only recover from the collateral provided the discount affords that recovery.  To some degree this trend of simply buying 12% paper for the sake of 12% seems counter-intuitive if you loose all the interest income plus some when you have to make advances to deal with the default and the property is over leveraged.  Interestingly enough, I rarely hear a Whiteback (can't tell if it is growing on me) talk about "over leverage".  

    So when we look at the borrower there is an idea of income that need be present.  Seems like we are not talking enough about compensating asset holdings or down payment as offsets to default.  Asset holdings meaning cash or equivalent the borrower can tap into in times of need to maintain debt service or cure default and delinquency.  If a borrower had 30% in the bank earning interest, then giving a loan with a 10% down payment seems to be somewhat mitigated for default.  If the borrower has $300 in the bank buying a $60k property with 10% down and you are taking a 10% discount, chances are you still do not have enough equity.  The actual yield is a second thought, or should be.  Approaching this the other way, leading by yield, is not prudent.  Again, who cares about a 12% yield if you never receive?  Further, who cares about 3 years of a 12% yield if it takes all that interest plus to enforce the loan when it defaults?

    Before I blow up the BP servers, I will pause there.  In parting, I to some degree, see what happened in the sub-prime market on Wall Street happening with this SF phenom.  Wall Street targeted 8% to 9% oddly enough Main Street investors seem to be content with 12%.  The wrong idea lead the dance to sub-prime.  Are you doing the same?  With this idea can we start to, in some fashion, quantify our risk vs our return?  

  • Real Estate Professional · West Palm Beach, FL · Member since 2012 · 23k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    12y

    @Dion DePaoli 

    Great point.  As you know, I don't buy notes for the cash flow at all, in fact we haven't got any yet, but the goal is a different reason.

    Your points dovetail with my basic outlook on owner financed notes, particularly those using the buy, rehab and sell with owner financing model.  Have you ever known these guys to be selling these properties at a discount?  I think not.  The seller knows he's going to take a hair cut on selling the note.  He also knows the other choices a buyer agreeing to a 8-10% loan has...few.  Why would a seller sell a house for $100k with seller financing, knowing he'll take a $8-10k haircut, if he could just sell that same property for $100k without offering financing?  The answer is he wouldn't.  So, in my mind these properties are probably selling at a 10% or so premium, due to the buyer's limited choices.

    So, to me a seller financed notes from someone using this model means a loan with a 10% down payment is really a 100% LTV, and a loan with a 20% down is really a 90% LTV, at best. Buying the first situation puts you deep in the red if you have to foreclose, and the "80%" LTV loan you buy still makes you upside down. Let's face it, you're not going to net the true LTV with selling costs, etc. and you'll be lucky not to spend more than 10% on property taxes, insurance, foreclosure, etc (without any vandalism to vacant properties). So, in my little rule of thumb mind, a "70% LTV" loan in these cases might give you a break even if you have to foreclose.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    Considerations of LTV are not quite the same as conventional. Just lost a long post and I'm too tired, ticked, to do it all over again.

    Great post Dion, one of your best!

    For institutional loan understandings, this might break the ice for new folks.

    http://www.freddiemac.com/singlefamily/underwrite/

    You should never suffer from insomnia again. :)

    You're right Dion, you'll never find a high quality SF note on a residence (unless I did it, LOL)

    I'll explain builders carry backs if you like, set up the system with one of the largest builders carrying the note, hint, they don't carry for long, first pledged for th next deal, then sold with seasoning, it cheaper money for them than construction end loan, buyer's conventional lending.

    " Whitebacker" leaves a derogatory taste in my mouth, too close to a racial slur, it's the color injected I think, how about "Yieldbacker" ? :)

    I was in the A & B seat, direct endorsement, affiliates and in the SF arena, I know, very unusual, the only reason other doors were opened was due to FDIC, bless their little hearts.

    Most mortgage brokers on the street are more like a good loan processor on a mild steroid treatment, there are exceptions, but not many. Entrepreneurial loan processors generating originations.

    Again Dion, good post. Later....     

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    12y

    I was worried as my head was spinning while reading that last post Dion, but finally, at the end of it, the point was reached. I could not disagree with your point as it is very true and a valid one. With the assumption that this post is to educate others on the "how to's" of analyzing a note (from a return and risk standpoint), I think you hit the nail on the head.

    For me personally, the yield I get from buying a Performing note at a discount is of high importance, however, I only buy that note IF the collateral has equity to cover the downside, i.e. enough equity currently plus the added equity gained from the note discount at purchase to prevent any loss in the event of foreclosure needs. As an example, I buy notes that are well seasoned, paying close attention to the month and year in which the note was initiated (so that I can gauge the market value of the asset at the time of origination) and compare that value to today's current value of the asset securitizing the note. If that note was started in say 2005 or 2006, I know that the value of the asset was artificially inflated at that time so i am going to look at the value today very, very closely. 

    I typically look for notes with at least 20% down from the borrower and at least one (but typically 2 or more) years of payment history (seasoning) so at time I purchase, the UPB (unpaid principle balance) is better than 75% of the true current market value today and then with my discount, it moves well below the 70% range, most often below 65% providing my principle enough equity that it could say to the borrower ("I dare you to not pay me") - not literally of course, just the mindset. I think this is a safe and responsible approach to buying performing notes at yields that are often at 15% or better with very limited to no down side risk. The one and only problem I see is finding enough of these deals to keep the capital moving and working. Just like finding a good deal to buy, fix and flip, you must find that "motivated seller" and in notes, it is no different.

    I am not looking for that investor who fixed and sold on an owner carried note, likely charging the buyer over retail at start, and then selling at a 10% discount to dump it, I am looking for that note seller who carried paper, has been holding it for some time with expectations to hold to maturity perhaps, but has some item going on in his or her life where he or she needs to liquidate. Could be a divorce, could be another business venture (this is the best reason often times for me), could be a death and the heirs want to cash out.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @Bill Gulley:

     Just lost a long post and I'm too tired, ticked, to do it all over again.     

    Proof there is a God up there after all! :)

    LMAOAMOJ      (laughing my a@@ off at my own joke)

  • Dave Van HornPro Member
    Fund Manager · Wayne, PA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    Hi All,

    First of all, props to @Dion DePaoli  for starting for starting this thread. These are valuable discussion points for those considering getting into the notes business.

    I apologize that it took so long for me to chime in on here, as there were several conferences in the last two weeks.


    Originally posted by @Tiger M.:

    I would like to see @Dave Van Horn chime in since he has been discussed above,

    "Even after I took Dave Van Horn's terrific course, I have decided to tread lightly. I have purchased several and even a note fund, but I am treading lightly until I get a better grasp and do more research. I would urge other "note newbies" to do likewise."

    Dave, why is it that folks can be enlightened but are still so cautious? No one seems to want to believe notes that we have all been conditioned to believe are bad, actually produce cash flows. After all, buying a note is really just buying a monthly payment stream.

    I did tread lightly at first, as well. It took my partners and awhile to get started with non-performing notes, and this was partly due to the fact that we didn’t have many resources at our disposal for learning the business. Today, there’s much more information available on notes, whether it’s online or at various conferences throughout the U.S.

    In the beginning, I only did private loans to rehabbers. When my partners and I ventured into distressed debt, we started out with a few notes purchased with our own capital, and we only bought notes backed with equity. After we had begun utilizing investor capital to purchase assets, the market crashed, and we had to learn how to make money working distressed assets without equity.

    From our experience, I became a strong believer that notes is a ‘learn by doing business.’ At some point, you can’t really learn it all until you jump in.

    I also suggest for many newer note buyers that they pursue education, network with others in the business, and find a mentor.

    Learning the process, reading books, discussing deals with people more experienced, getting your feet wet with equity-backed deals, etc.—these are all great things to do when you’re getting started.

    That being said, certain categories of assets are more passive, involve less of a time commitment, and are easier to manage. Then, there are categories that are more active, require more time, and are more advanced.

    If you’re not familiar with collections, then distressed debt will most likely present a learning curve, as it can be more statistical, especially with junior liens. Although, secured notes and mortgages are still collateral backed investments, assuming that there’s enough equity to protect your lien position.

    I hope this info helps!

    Best,

    Dave

  • Investor · Central Valley, CA · Member since 2012 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    12y

    Riffing on Bill's idea, what about "yield hack"?

  • Bill B.Pro Member
    Camarillo, CA · Member since 2013 · 217 posts · 86 votes
    11y

    @Dion DePaoli 

    @Will Barnard 

    @Bill Gulley 

    et. al.

    I'm bumping this thread because it is a GREAT one for newbies.

    Thanks to Dion for starting it, thanks to everyone else for perspective and contributions.

  • Real Estate Investor · Milford, PA · Member since 2014 · 395 posts · 299 votes
    11y

    @Dion DePaoli @Bill Gulley and everyone else that has chimed in.

    I am a complete noob. I know so little, that I don't know what I don't know. With that being said, as I read through this post I did learn a bunch of stuff. I am forever grateful. 

    What leads to me  looking into notes?

    A few things: (and please slap me around if I am wrong.)

               1.  Most of the work can be done either at night when the kids are sleeping or while             they are in school. This allows for added time spent with them.

               2.  There are no toilets to fix.  I don't have to think who will be on call if a tenant calls and I am on vacation, or for that matter at my kids ball game.

               3.  After you actually buy and take possession of the note there's no work or maintenance (bring on the slapping me in the back of the head. I'm sure there is but I don't know what it is.) a very nice PASSIVE income.

               4.  There is cashflow that can be saved up, then used to purchase more notes. 

              I would expect to make 10-15% on performing notes.

    Now I will sit down keep my mouth shut and continue to lurk in the background.  Again, thank You for allowing me to sit in and listen. 

  • Lender · Greater LA/Orange County area, CA · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    11y

    Well, no slapping from me (surprised?). 

    Many people venture into notes after they understand the collateral. Knowing what can go wrong with the security of your loan is awfully helpful. Once you've been involved in a few rehabs and see how other people can live with conditions that most of us wouldn't want to have to imagine, let along step over (or in!) and, congratulations, you've foreclosed and now it's your problem!

    Yes, you can do much of the analytical and correspondence work after business hours. Some activities require the help and cooperation of business people who choose to go home after business hours and do life stuff. 

    Suggest you find a community of active note investors and watch what they do, not just what they say. As my friend Ed says, if you really want to know what people think, watch their feet.

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