So how&#x27;s the Las Vegas Market?

OP

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

6y

@Nathan Gesner I can't argue your statement about the drought. It's something I think about regularly.

Nathan GesnerBusiness Member

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Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes

6y

Originally posted by @Brad Bellstedt:

@Nathan Gesner I can't argue your statement about the drought. It's something I think about regularly.

When I left there in 2005, the City was reducing the number of lawns, cutting back on vegetation that required watering, and I believe they even drained Desert Shores for a while. I looked at a chart recently that showed the lake has been below 2005 levels for 15 years straight.

Then there's the issue of electricity demand...

It's just like gambling: really good when you're ahead, but the house always wins in the end.

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Jim D.

Member since 2019 · 65 posts · 68 votes

6y

Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:

Originally posted by @Brad Bellstedt:

@Nathan Gesner I can't argue your statement about the drought. It's something I think about regularly.

When I left there in 2005, the City was reducing the number of lawns, cutting back on vegetation that required watering, and I believe they even drained Desert Shores for a while. I looked at a chart recently that showed the lake has been below 2005 levels for 15 years straight.

Then there's the issue of electricity demand...

It's just like gambling: really good when you're ahead, but the house always wins in the end.

Curious, what is the (perceived) issue of electricity demand you refer to?

As far as the drought, I was also quite concerned before moving here a couple years ago (didn't even want to move in fact), but I take some comfort in progress made in reducing water use in NV and beyond. Some of the so-called experts also say that if the dam stops generating power (which it is contractually obligated to do at some water level, and we're not even close to that level), the river flow will quickly increase Lake Mead...

The issue of how big a hit the Vegas area is going to take from current events, yeah, we're very concerned about that.

Nathan GesnerBusiness Member

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Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes

6y

Originally posted by @Jim D.:

Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:

Originally posted by @Brad Bellstedt:

@Nathan Gesner I can't argue your statement about the drought. It's something I think about regularly.

When I left there in 2005, the City was reducing the number of lawns, cutting back on vegetation that required watering, and I believe they even drained Desert Shores for a while. I looked at a chart recently that showed the lake has been below 2005 levels for 15 years straight.

Then there's the issue of electricity demand...

It's just like gambling: really good when you're ahead, but the house always wins in the end.

Curious, what is the (perceived) issue of electricity demand you refer to?

As far as the drought, I was also quite concerned before moving here a couple years ago (didn't even want to move in fact), but I take some comfort in progress made in reducing water use in NV and beyond. Some of the so-called experts also say that if the dam stops generating power (which it is contractually obligated to do at some water level, and we're not even close to that level), the river flow will quickly increase Lake Mead...

The issue of how big a hit the Vegas area is going to take from current events, yeah, we're very concerned about that.

When I lived there (2000 - 2005), they were struggling to keep up with demand on the electrical grid in the summer. That's when California started rolling blackouts and there was a threat of it happening in Vegas. If it's not happening yet, it will eventually. I read a news article that the Vegas utility providers encourage customers to sign up for "smart" thermostats that allow the utility provider to adjust your home's temperature. It's just a matter of time before they make that mandatory.

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Jim D.

Member since 2019 · 65 posts · 68 votes

6y

Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:

Originally posted by @Jim D.:

Originally posted by @Nathan Gesner:

Originally posted by @Brad Bellstedt:

@Nathan Gesner I can't argue your statement about the drought. It's something I think about regularly.

When I left there in 2005, the City was reducing the number of lawns, cutting back on vegetation that required watering, and I believe they even drained Desert Shores for a while. I looked at a chart recently that showed the lake has been below 2005 levels for 15 years straight.

Then there's the issue of electricity demand...

It's just like gambling: really good when you're ahead, but the house always wins in the end.

Curious, what is the (perceived) issue of electricity demand you refer to?

As far as the drought, I was also quite concerned before moving here a couple years ago (didn't even want to move in fact), but I take some comfort in progress made in reducing water use in NV and beyond. Some of the so-called experts also say that if the dam stops generating power (which it is contractually obligated to do at some water level, and we're not even close to that level), the river flow will quickly increase Lake Mead...

The issue of how big a hit the Vegas area is going to take from current events, yeah, we're very concerned about that.

When I lived there (2000 - 2005), they were struggling to keep up with demand on the electrical grid in the summer. That's when California started rolling blackouts and there was a threat of it happening in Vegas. If it's not happening yet, it will eventually. I read a news article that the Vegas utility providers encourage customers to sign up for "smart" thermostats that allow the utility provider to adjust your home's temperature. It's just a matter of time before they make that mandatory.

Thanks for the clarification...not sure if you were saying there was too much demand or not enough. Actually, the days of demand concerns are over - it's not happening yet, and it won't. The West is moving into an environment where there is too much supply due to the massive solar build-out. California is even exporting energy to it's neighbors instead of importing as they have historically. Just one recent article, (Greentech Media, April 2)..."California grid operator CAISO has been curtailing renewable energy at record levels this year, as the state’s ever-rising share of solar power during daylight hours increasingly outpaces electricity demand." In fact, there are massive amounts of energy storage projects proposed to contend with oversupply in the West.

On everything else we agree. We enjoy living here much more than I ever expected - I'd even say I love it here - but at the same time there always seems to be a bit of underlying concern over the growth, when the next recession is going to hit, and sustainability in general.

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

6y

Oh look, another “expert” with 1 day’s experience.

I would say they should limit accounts to 1 per phone number or ip address but I suppose professional trolls would get past that.

David Song

Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes

6y

@Brad Bellstedt

This is actually the question I searched online. I have been considering buying one in Las Vegas as a second home for a while. Mainly for tax purposes.

Visited the city many times, the concern I have is that the city does not have a robust and diverse industrial base. It relied too heavily on one single industry.

I went to a few open houses in summerlin last year. The foot traffic is pathetic. Beautiful houses at 500k range with very few buyers interested.

To make things worse, the mean income of the permanent residents there is low. Mostly working minimum wage jobs in the service industry.

With the impact of covid 19, I believe the prices will drop significantly over the next year or two. Therefore, I will wait until the end of 2021 to see if there is any opportunities there.

Nobody can predict the future, but I would be rather cautious now to buy any property in Las Vegas.

Anyone who bought in the last two years at retail price will likely be in the red for a while. However, after a significant correction, new opportunities might arise.

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OP

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

6y

@Bill B. I hope you're not referring to me...

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

6y

@Brad Bellstedt no Brad, Gloricia. The expert on Vegas that joined today. That I’m “sure” isn’t just another user using a 3rd or 4th new account name.

OP

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

6y

@Bill B. Gotchya. I was gonna say, "ouch man, I know you've seen my posts before." I didn't know multiple accounts was a problem for this website but I'll keep an eye out for it. Does her writing style remind you of another account you've seen? Now that you mention it there was an account with a female name (I forget what it was) that was trolling people and talking all sorts of **** about Vegas a couple of weeks ago that I haven't seen on here since.

I'll have to keep an eye out for patterns of this kind of behavior.

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

6y

Yeah. They alway reference posts from 3-6 months ago. Or mention Terry. Whenever I see less than 10 posts I check on when they joined. Usually it’s the same day. Or at least the same week. Sometimes they’ll male 2 or 3 and agree with each other, or resurrect an old post.

I shouldn’t let them on to another trick but they always seem to use uncommon names. And yet when you go to Facebook or google you find zero results. :-)

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JD MartinBusiness Member

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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes

6y

Originally posted by @Bill B.:

Yeah. They alway reference posts from 3-6 months ago. Or mention Terry. Whenever I see less than 10 posts I check on when they joined. Usually it’s the same day. Or at least the same week. Sometimes they’ll male 2 or 3 and agree with each other, or resurrect an old post.

I shouldn’t let them on to another trick but they always seem to use uncommon names. And yet when you go to Facebook or google you find zero results. :-)

Don't worry, we're on it :) I call them bad pennies!

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Terry Lao

Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes

6y

@Bill B.

Is it better to be mentioned and trolled or not mention at all?

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes

6y

@Terry Lao

I dunno. The only two about me I remember was one about giving out free pizzas that didn’t even make sense. And one about how I was always pushing the 1% rule which was easy to shut down by pointing to all my posts about how it wasn’t applicable in my markets and it didn’t make sense since it didn’t consider tax/insurance/maintenance/price/property age differences.

Aleejandro Dela Vega

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 71 posts · 38 votes

6y

@Brad Bellstedt

I own 9 rental houses in downtown, all between Sahara/Charleston and Valley View/Maryland PKWy.

I bought them with a total investment of $550k between 2010-2012 and they are worth about $2.45mil today.

I don’t see prices crashing to 2010 levels (which was the true bottom) but I don’t see them going up much for the next two years or so, unless we get a vaccine really quick.

A strong possibility is that people will travel less in the future, stay home more and invest into their own properties which will cause prices to at least be somewhat stable.

However, I think the casino industry will be affected for a long time, probably years, which will cause them not to hire as much and cause ripple effects into the local economy. Who knows how this will affect residential real estate but my guess is that it won’t be positive.

I’m going to unload a few rentals as soon as I’m able to serve notices (which for now, are on hold).

OP

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

6y

@Aleejandro Dela Vega Wow! Quite impressive! I admire what you've done there. What's the plan for after you've liquidated? Leaving the state or just holding tight for a while?

Aleejandro Dela Vega

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 71 posts · 38 votes

6y

@Brad Bellstedt I appreciate it. The plan as of now is to move money into equities. Of course that will depend on where the market will be when I can make the move... At this point I think it’s ahead of itself but who knows, it depends a lot on how much the Fed is willing to pump in and who they will bailout and such...

Brad D.

San Diego, CA · Member since 2011 · 85 posts · 67 votes

6y

Originally posted by @Brad Bellstedt:

So how's the market?

I'm glad you asked 😁

This may not be the most popular opinion on a forum full of hopeful investors but the Las Vegas housing market is already building a reputation as being one of the nations "most resilient" housing markets. Yes, home sales and home values are down but not nearly at the level some were predicting when Covid 19 first changed our lives and even better than most other cities.

This IS NOT a repeat of 2008. Home values have moved downward from their absolute highs of between 6% and 9% but this is to be expected because of the laws of supply and demand. As demand decreases and supply increases, we naturally see a decline in price BUT the graphs to follow show a steady demand for housing still and I believe that once people are able to get back to work and start borrowing again, we will see a fast recovery.

With our phase-one/soft open coming up in only two days, I feel optimistic that we have seen the bottom of this economic slowdown and that we are soon to be on our way back up.

One more reason to thank those "essential employees" who helped to drag us and our economy through all this craziness.

Chart Order

1. Number of active listing.

2. Number of active listing to accept an offer.

3. Number of properties sold

4. Average number of days on the market before accepting an offer.

5. Median number of days on the market before accepting an offer.

6. Average sale price of a single family home.

7. Median sale price of a single family home.

8-10. The numbers I used to make these graphs.

Theoretically, this forum is hear to help people become successful in real estate. If realtors are going to be allowed to come on here and spout insanity to round up business, they should at least be required to prove they are acting in accord with that advice, i.e. are buying something, have skin in the game somehow.

Otherwise, they're like some cake decorator showing up at overeaters anonymous and selling contraband cupcakes out of his trunk.

OP

Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 279 posts · 133 votes

6y

@Aleejandro Dela Vega Sounds like a smart move if you can gain some type of competitive advantage. I hope that goes well for you. If there's anything I can do to help when the time comes, I'd be happy to.

Michael Robbins

Property Manager · Henderson, NV · Member since 2018 · 501 posts · 317 votes

6y

Too soon to tell how the market will go. But it is certainly a good time to save up cash and be in a good position to buy if opportunity presents itself. Short-term rental properties will probably see limited or negative rent growth. But if that happens it could be a good time to buy and then rent out. I think the right rental property will do well over the next few years.

Spencer Cornelia

Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2017 · 321 posts · 524 votes

6y

No one seems to be discussing (arguably) the biggest factor/variable with the real estate market.....how many Californians move to Vegas?

If we continue to see large numbers of California residents moving to Vegas, are we sure that Vegas will see a dip in the real estate market?

What if.....we see an increase of Californians coming to Vegas?