GoogleTrends Says Real Estate Investing is Declining?

Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes

Hey everyone - I was looking around Google Trends today and came across this graph, showing the dramatic decline in those searching the internet for "Real Estate Investing."

What do you think this means for the industry or for you, personally? What do you think are the causes? Please share your thoughts below. I find this fascinating.

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Carl Schmitt

CT · Member since 2010 · 135 posts · 100 votes

13y

Sounds like a good thing to me...less people searching = more inventory to choose from

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Carl Schmitt
CT · Member since 2010 · 135 posts · 100 votes
13y
Sounds like a good thing to me...less people searching = more inventory to choose from
3 Reply
Xing Zhu
Durham, NC · Member since 2012 · 498 posts · 48 votes
13y
Inventory is multi-year low in many markets. The price will jump up another notch soon, provided we do not go over the fiscal cliff.
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Scott French
Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2012 · 47 posts · 8 votes
13y
Less people with the money to invest in RE
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Brandon TurnerPro Member
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Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y
I wonder how much the "Flipping TV" shows plays a part in this. People watch the shows, then go to google to research a big and type in "Real Estate investing". Thoughts?
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Marc Bodinger
New York City, NY · Member since 2012 · 253 posts · 7 votes
13y
How are other searches doing on Google? Maybe other keywords are performing better than others because of real estate related reality shows.
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Luis Castillo
Real Estate Investor · Whittier, CA · Member since 2012 · 92 posts · 19 votes
13y
Like I have said before people are sheep. They're like herds, when people are buying they follow. When the news says real estate is declining they run. Always chasing the market with the herd usually ends up with a lot of broke investors. The truth is we should buy in declining markets and hold forever. Your children and grandchildren will thank you!
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Joel OwensBusiness Member
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Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
13y
Doesn't mean anything to me. You will find much of that search volume to be people that are looking at wholesaling or flipping and have little to no cash to start.

The serious buyers that I work with are heavy into the market right now. Debt is cheap and there are plenty of deals to be had on quality assets if you just look. I am speaking to the commercial real estate sector (triple net and multifamily) exclusively.

Business is as good as it has ever been.

Data means more when you drill down to the local markets and asset type you are investing in or helping people transact.
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Michael B.
Apopka, FL · Member since 2012 · 207 posts · 120 votes
13y
I'm guessing it's a matter of international vs US data collection.

Note that the numbers are worldwide. Most real estate investors aren't in the US. The biggest chunk are in China, and various places have large numbers.

Here's my guess. In large parts of Europe people are worrying about joining the 3rd world. Deflation is upon them, and the last thing people want is to own hard assets. A CD yielding -.02% in Germany or Britain are really good places for your cash right now.

In China 2 things have happened. One is that the frothiness of the real estate market has diminished somewhat. Possibly more important is that the Chinese language portion of the internet has gotten much richer over the years. No longer any need to go to Google Translate to find the English words for what they want to find on the internet.

Remove the frame from the idea of searches being US only makes it easier to understand.
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Brandon TurnerPro Member
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Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y
Interesting thought, Michael B. - so I checked Google trends for the same term, just the US. Pretty much the exact same graph.

I'm with what Carl Schmitt said - I think when real estate becomes "popular" it's a bad time to buy but when there is dis-interest = it's a great time to buy.

I assume that over the next couple years that graph is gonna start moving back upward. But it gives me a little more confidence to buy even more.

Like Warren Buffet says, "Buy when everyone is selling, and sell when everyone is buying."
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Thom H.
Investor · Central Virginia Area, VA · Member since 2012 · 80 posts · 28 votes
13y
I'm with Hector and Joel. I'd imagine the vast majority of volume is inexperienced investors or flippers. And just like uninformed investors in the stock market, human nature is very much a herd mentality reacting to fear and bad news doing the opposite of what they should be doing. Fortunately for experienced investors, who understand to buy/sell against this type of trend, (as Charlie Sheen likes to say...) we'll be....WINNING!!! Brandon, WB has it right...his old saying has never been wrong in my experience, no matter the investment type.
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Brandon TurnerPro Member
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Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y
Haha - "Winning". Did you see that video in the BiggerPockets Blog post from Mark Purtell from Saturday? Hysterical!

And yeah - it's amazing that Herd mentality. I concur!
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Thom H.
Investor · Central Virginia Area, VA · Member since 2012 · 80 posts · 28 votes
13y
Too funny...(I just read the link!) great post! Thanks for the link Brandon....great minds!

Without the "herds", we'd just be speculators! Let the "herds" run wild!!

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Carl Schmitt
CT · Member since 2010 · 135 posts · 100 votes
13y
Brandon, to quote Warren Buffet again, "whether I'm buying socks or stocks, I like to buy things when they're on sale". I'd argue that it's tough to buy property on sale when there is tons of other people looking to buy.
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Kyle J.
Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes
13y
Originally posted by Brandon Turner:
Hey everyone - I was looking around Google Trends today and came across this graph, showing the dramatic decline in those searching the internet for "Real Estate Investing."

Maybe they all found Bigger Pockets so they don't have to search any more. :)
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Brandon TurnerPro Member
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Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y
Very True, Carl Schmitt. It can be tough when everyone is buying. Is that what it's like in your area? In mine, everything is still on sale but no one is around.

It's like a Blue Light Special at K-Mart. :)
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Brandon TurnerPro Member
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Investor · Maui, HI · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 3k+ votes
13y
And yes, Kyle J. - the graph does seem to be the exact inverse of BiggerPockets growth over the past few years. I think I like that theory the best :)
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Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
13y
Brandon Turner you said about the google chart, "I find it fascinating",.Really.., they need to let you out of the cell or bus you to the city a bit more often! :-) Sorry, I have to bust your chops here just a tad. IT'S THE CHART, NOT YOU I have issue with.

In 2004 checkers at Albertson's were qualifying for $750K homes, so of course interest in a key word has dropped since then with liar loans disappearing. It's a much more sophisticated crowd that remains though. BP is the perfect example of folks that know how to actually grind down numbers to ensure success. The formula before was simply, "where do I sign". People that got burned in the collapse were high on optimistic opium. Of course, those herd mentality buyers have left the market. Now is the perfect time for fortunes to be built. In the Great Depression, 30% starved, 40% survived, 30% made more wealth/money than God. I don't see this era that much different. Contrarians with the nose for a deal will still be making it work.

I just did the weirdest experiment in my office. We took two jars of filled half way with cooked rice. Covered it in water. Then told one jar we loved it and one jar we hated it (seriously, my entire office participated). After two weeks the results were shocking. The negative jar is full of mold and rotting. The positive jar is just like new. Investors are just like the rice. The ones that are negative are still fearful and loosing their tails, the ones that are staying informed and grasping opportunity are killing it. I have folks that are up 100% in 6 months. Slow money always wins and ignores the noise.
You asked for it.....
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Seth WilliamsPro Member
Specialist · Grand Rapids, MI · Member since 2012 · 583 posts · 353 votes
13y
This is an interesting find Brandon, thanks for posting. I almost would've expected the opposite to start happening as the market starts to improve. It ultimately doesn't bother me in terms of my own real estate investments, but I do wonder what it means for the nationwide demand for real estate as a whole.
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Rob K.
Investor · Southeast, MI · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
13y
Maybe with all of these new reality shows, all of the get rich quick wannabe's are doing the following kind of searches that overtook real estate investing for the top spots:

Mining gold in Alaska
Making moonshine in Appalachia
Mining gold in Africa
Buying storage lockers at auction
Mining gold in the Amazon
Shipping other people's junk across the country
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Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
13y
Rob K next time your in Vegas, lets go hang out at Pawn Stars since you missed that one. :-)
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Ryan Moses
New York City, NY · Member since 2012 · 60 posts · 14 votes
13y
Decline in those searching ' Real Estate Investing' does not necessarily mean few people investing in real estate as the latest figures show us more people are buying.
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Ben Bakhshi
Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2012 · 408 posts · 37 votes
13y
Originally posted by Tiger M.:

I just did the weirdest experiment in my office. We took two jars of filled half way with cooked rice. Covered it in water. Then told one jar we loved it and one jar we hated it (seriously, my entire office participated). After two weeks the results were shocking. The negative jar is full of mold and rotting. The positive jar is just like new. Investors are just like the rice. The ones that are negative are still fearful and loosing their tails, the ones that are staying informed and grasping opportunity are killing it. I have folks that are up 100% in 6 months. Slow money always wins and ignores the noise.
You asked for it.....

I am not sure I buy that story.
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Tiger M.
property manager · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2012 · 502 posts · 171 votes
13y
Ben Bakhshi which part? The Dr. Masaru Emoto rice experiment, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTz-cYk9Wu4, the you need to know how to handle volitility in the market part or the acquisitions we closed 6 months ago at $60K that are now $120K? I'm happy to elaborate.
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William Bannister
Commercial Landlord · Oshkosh, WI · Member since 2013 · 299 posts · 88 votes
13y
I find it interesting when such trends are made public to almost shock to public awake saying hey everyone not its time to get back into real estate. when I read things like this I am just reminded of the sheep mentality of following the crowd into every investment like before the sub prime blow up back in 07. This just reminds me of the Tulip Mania story that is history we all understand and can apply to any market place.
Its hard to say if Google was just used less in favor of other search engines or whether Google searches changed how they categorized searches but one thing is clear. The real estate market has been pretty slow since 2007. Its turned around a bit but for the most part whats kept people away is a lack of easy money at the main street level. While those with good credit and cash can participate the criteria for lending is stringent.
The days of cdo's being packaged and sold and debt swaps and deals to short such sub prime may gone but this was all new so. As the data compiled is sorted through by research teams that work for the trading giants like Bear Sterns and Goldman and JP and ect. Once the risk management understand all of what happened, this credit cycle will come roaring back. Bond traders have already used the failures in 2006 to 2009 to create new models that rate bonds with more transparency and less risk. Not any time soon though, our fiscal cliff will put a damper on that as the Fed crowds everyone out for borrowed money and interest rates climb.
Every cycle we go through has all these new things we create as humans. Imagine who ever thought, lets create credit default swaps on these sub prime mortgages so we can short this crap they are dumping on our desks in Wall street. Or so we can cover the losses that we created in the first place.
What I am trying to get at is the next real estate boom will be new and different like the last was. The market place has started to turn but its certainly going to be a slow battle for it to recover when in our global environment we are fighting the world for good jobs.
The deals are so easy to come by where I am that I dont even have to go to the internet. I just wait till i have a little money and every 6 months they have an auction selling 250 homes and I go hand pick a few properties to bid on and buy em. I hope the market stays crappy for just a few more years.
My crystal ball says higher inflation from QE then borrowing costs go up since capital is hard to come by and you have a sluggish market for some time. So you have to shift gears and build your portfolio now. The rental market has never been better;)
Cant wait for the future, I mean when I started in this game we didnt have yardi software and cell phones imagine having to develop pics to get condition reports lol. The future is bright! even with an economy that flat lines my personal economy has never been better.
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Ben Bakhshi
Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2012 · 408 posts · 37 votes
13y
The rice experiment. I've read about it, sounds interesting, but haven't seen any hard evidence supporting it. Hearsay, or a couple of jars with rice and mold aren't enough. Somehow I'd need to see the process happen my self or by a reliable person (not that you arent! I just don't know you).
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