Ohio as the second winner of highest Appreciation Metro in 2023 YTD
Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Ohio as the second winner of highest Appreciation Metro in 2023 YTD
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
There're only four metro that experienced double digit appreciation YTD.
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Columbus, OH
4. Milwaukee, WI
and number one is San Diego,CA.
Highly surprising that San Diego is the highest appreciation metro in 2023 (!)
Interested to your source and their percentage increase. I forgot my source but it was showing 11% YOY appreciation for San Diego.
According to Rentometer San Diego rent growth YOY is 8% and that is down a little from the previous quarter. This implies the average 3 BR rent increase is over $330/month. One of our tenants received a $800/month increase last year (and this still had tenant far below market rent). They did not comment on the large increase as they know their rent is still far below market rent.
https://www.rentometer.com/california-home-rents
Supply is very constrained and demand is high in San Diego. This has trumped affordability for decades.
San Diego is ranked by US News and World report as least affordable city in US. To compound this highly expensive cost of living, our average household income (moderate household income) is much lower than most of the other expensive cities
https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to...
Many people sacrifice to live in San Diego. If they get tired of making those sacrifices, they move elsewhere and someone else moves here who is willing to make the sacrifice (at least until they tire of it).
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Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
There're only four metro that experienced double digit appreciation YTD.
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Columbus, OH
4. Milwaukee, WI
and number one is San Diego,CA.
Highly surprising that San Diego is the highest appreciation metro in 2023 (!)Interested to your source and their percentage increase. I forgot my source but it was showing 11% YOY appreciation for San Diego.
According to Rentometer San Diego rent growth YOY is 8% and that is down a little from the previous quarter. This implies the average 3 BR rent increase is over $330/month. One of our tenants received a $800/month increase last year (and this still had tenant far below market rent). They did not comment on the large increase as they know their rent is still far below market rent.
https://www.rentometer.com/california-home-rents
Supply is very constrained and demand is high in San Diego. This has trumped affordability for decades.
San Diego is ranked by US News and World report as least affordable city in US. To compound this highly expensive cost of living, our average household income (moderate household income) is much lower than most of the other expensive cities
https://realestate.usnews.com/places/rankings/best-places-to...
Many people sacrifice to live in San Diego. If they get tired of making those sacrifices, they move elsewhere and someone else moves here who is willing to make the sacrifice (at least until they tire of it).
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
source is Freddie Mac.
Other CA city only appreciate 6-7%.
Amazing suddenly San Diego is playing catching up, but my theory is maybe because it has the lower average price. What make this interesting is in 2023, only San Diego could really run by itself , usually all CA cities appreciate in tandem. This kind of appreciation also doesn't occur to city like Sacramento, Fresno. So there's something unique that happened only this year. - Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes2y
No surprise, after the price jump of the last few years the migration of the remote work force starts to equalize stark price differences. Money goes where it can buy the most value.
My team works with a lot of relocation clients and it is interesting to hear from them what they feel is different in Milwaukee vs where they moved from. Most of it boils down to quality of live, a more moderate, cooler climate, easy commute times, Midwest friendly people, lower cost of living etc Many also say they were surprised how cool Milwaukee is. Okay I am a bit bias, but I have been saying it for years (documented on my YouTube channel) and we can see it now materialize in the data. Climate induced migration is another big one: no hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, no smoke, no earthquales, plenty of fresh water (Great Lakes) etc - and winter is not what it used to be.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
No surprise, after the price jump of the last few years the migration of the remote work force starts to equalize stark price differences. Money goes where it can buy the most value.
My team works with a lot of relocation clients and it is interesting to hear from them what they feel is different in Milwaukee vs where they moved from. Most of it boils down to quality of live, a more moderate, cooler climate, easy commute times, Midwest friendly people, lower cost of living etc Many also say they were surprised how cool Milwaukee is. Okay I am a bit bias, but I have been saying it for years (documented on my YouTube channel) and we can see it now materialize in the data. Climate induced migration is another big one: no hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, no smoke, no earthquales, plenty of fresh water (Great Lakes) etc - and winter is not what it used to be.
so the theory that says money is flowing to cash flow location after rising of interest rate is accurate ; and everyone that has money is still moving to the beach.
- Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2021 · 9k+ posts · 5k+ votes2y
These may also be prone to be the fastest falling markets as well.
I do not see Austin Texas on this list. - Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @Eliott Elias:
These may also be prone to be the fastest falling markets as well.
I do not see Austin Texas on this list.Austin is the only falling market in 2023
- 2yJordan MoorheadBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Eliott Elias:
These may also be prone to be the fastest falling markets as well.
I do not see Austin Texas on this list.Austin is the only falling market in 2023
That's untrue. A simple Google search will show you that they're falling in very many markets, Boise has been the highest.
The Moorhead Team5142 Reviews Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
I was wondering is it because of the new job that is recently established or there is new trend that we don’t know ?
- Cleveland is because people see the numbers and flock to it. They don't get the "active" aspect of being an REI. Columbus is definitely getting some legitimate work recruits there, but right now it doesn't substantiate itself. They are viewed as prime real estate for it, but when everyone runs into the same direction they end up racing to the bottom on stuff. Just start a post here being new looking for something. It'll be pro-Columbus for half the posts. Columbus is going to be like Memphis on steroids. Just a bunch of investors owning most the city, all fighting for when/if the economy ever gets bad but claiming massive % of appreciation when the absolute value really isn't there. I would like to know how much Columbus house pricing is investor driven versus real homebuyers. I don't think the actual economy of Columbus can support the investor's objective.
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
I was wondering is it because of the new job that is recently established or there is new trend that we don’t know ?
- 2yRobert EllisBusiness MemberDeveloper · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland is because people see the numbers and flock to it. They don't get the "active" aspect of being an REI. Columbus is definitely getting some legitimate work recruits there, but right now it doesn't substantiate itself. They are viewed as prime real estate for it, but when everyone runs into the same direction they end up racing to the bottom on stuff. Just start a post here being new looking for something. It'll be pro-Columbus for half the posts. Columbus is going to be like Memphis on steroids. Just a bunch of investors owning most the city, all fighting for when/if the economy ever gets bad but claiming massive % of appreciation when the absolute value really isn't there. I would like to know how much Columbus house pricing is investor driven versus real homebuyers. I don't think the actual economy of Columbus can support the investor's objective.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
I was wondering is it because of the new job that is recently established or there is new trend that we don’t know ?
investors aren't owning all of columbus and Memphis isn't even close to columbus economically. a very poorly researched post here. investors can't pay what retail clients can pay every year. 25k-30k closings per year in columbus. majority aren't llc purchased.
Section 8 Launch52 Reviews - 2yRobert EllisBusiness MemberDeveloper · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Eliott Elias:
These may also be prone to be the fastest falling markets as well.
I do not see Austin Texas on this list.Columbus has had a housing shortage for the past 7 years shy by 4-5k dwelling units per year. we aren't falling. this isn't Austin Texas. ohio is one of the cheapest places in the country. Cleveland looks silly at its 120k average house and still has an oversupply. of housing. city tears down 700-800 houses per year. you don't see that in columbus. there was I think 50 million dollars set aside for the demolition of blighted structures and barely any Central Ohio communities or counties got one. it all went to the negative population growth areas like Cleveland, dayton, ohio valley
Section 8 Launch52 Reviews - 2yRobert EllisBusiness MemberDeveloper · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
There're only four metro that experienced double digit appreciation YTD.
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Columbus, OH
4. Milwaukee, WI
and number one is San Diego,CA.
Highly surprising that San Diego is the highest appreciation metro in 2023 (!)what's the definition of a metro? Columbus has 9 submarkets with 20%+ average and median appreciation. I'm guessing it's a population of 1 million or more? otherwise this is skewed I can name 50 cities that have that.
Section 8 Launch52 Reviews - Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
Please give credible sources...good grief.
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland is because people see the numbers and flock to it. They don't get the "active" aspect of being an REI. Columbus is definitely getting some legitimate work recruits there, but right now it doesn't substantiate itself. They are viewed as prime real estate for it, but when everyone runs into the same direction they end up racing to the bottom on stuff. Just start a post here being new looking for something. It'll be pro-Columbus for half the posts. Columbus is going to be like Memphis on steroids. Just a bunch of investors owning most the city, all fighting for when/if the economy ever gets bad but claiming massive % of appreciation when the absolute value really isn't there. I would like to know how much Columbus house pricing is investor driven versus real homebuyers. I don't think the actual economy of Columbus can support the investor's objective.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
I was wondering is it because of the new job that is recently established or there is new trend that we don’t know ?
investors aren't owning all of columbus and Memphis isn't even close to columbus economically. a very poorly researched post here. investors can't pay what retail clients can pay every year. 25k-30k closings per year in columbus. majority aren't llc purchased.
Naivete at it's finest. You think all investors buy outright in an LLC? Go gather info from your fellow REA in Columbus about their primary home buyers vs. investor clients. See the spread, compare it to the nation. It's heavily investor focused-- think mom and pop with sub 4 rentals. I am literally (second hand) lending to these folks. The main LLC buyers are institutional and HNW, those have not hit Columbus. There is a reason for that.
And FWIW, I said Memphis on steroids. Due to the nature of investor activity, rental liquidity. Nothing about the economy, infact I said it is getting some legit work recruits. Just nowhere near the hot stuff you think you are puffing out.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
There're only four metro that experienced double digit appreciation YTD.
2. Cleveland, OH
3. Columbus, OH
4. Milwaukee, WI
and number one is San Diego,CA.
Highly surprising that San Diego is the highest appreciation metro in 2023 (!)what's the definition of a metro? Columbus has 9 submarkets with 20%+ average and median appreciation. I'm guessing it's a population of 1 million or more? otherwise this is skewed I can name 50 cities that have that.
You can refer to Freddie Mac definition , good thing is that the whole Ohio seems getting this strong appreciation
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Robert Ellis:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland is because people see the numbers and flock to it. They don't get the "active" aspect of being an REI. Columbus is definitely getting some legitimate work recruits there, but right now it doesn't substantiate itself. They are viewed as prime real estate for it, but when everyone runs into the same direction they end up racing to the bottom on stuff. Just start a post here being new looking for something. It'll be pro-Columbus for half the posts. Columbus is going to be like Memphis on steroids. Just a bunch of investors owning most the city, all fighting for when/if the economy ever gets bad but claiming massive % of appreciation when the absolute value really isn't there. I would like to know how much Columbus house pricing is investor driven versus real homebuyers. I don't think the actual economy of Columbus can support the investor's objective.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Cleveland and Columbus are people buying into the rally without the underlying economy able to support those new(er) rent prices. They all stampede for cash flow. Columbus may see a somewhat increase in median income household but still a long ways away. The logic defeats itself, but very typical of a "market".
I was wondering is it because of the new job that is recently established or there is new trend that we don’t know ?
investors aren't owning all of columbus and Memphis isn't even close to columbus economically. a very poorly researched post here. investors can't pay what retail clients can pay every year. 25k-30k closings per year in columbus. majority aren't llc purchased.
Naivete at it's finest. You think all investors buy outright in an LLC? Go gather info from your fellow REA in Columbus about their primary home buyers vs. investor clients. See the spread, compare it to the nation. It's heavily investor focused-- think mom and pop with sub 4 rentals. I am literally (second hand) lending to these folks. The main LLC buyers are institutional and HNW, those have not hit Columbus. There is a reason for that.
And FWIW, I said Memphis on steroids. Due to the nature of investor activity, rental liquidity. Nothing about the economy, infact I said it is getting some legit work recruits. Just nowhere near the hot stuff you think you are puffing out.
Is there is more data on this it would be cool , I would find out
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
@Carlos Ptriawan I really dislike the metric here and the assumption that it means so many other things.
For example, I can pick Dayton MN. I could say "look, median home price shot from $150k too $500k in just a couple years" and leave it without context.
How many would assume it's way popular or IDK, Google made a headquarters there. But none of that happened, it's just a redevelopment.
So much can be skewed in perception from any 1 metric alone, not to mention when i just searched that metric I found no less than 20 radically different list's.
What I care about, where is it GOING to have good appreciation. Cause my time machine is at the shop, so what's in the rear view mirror doesn't help make any $ going forward. I gotta peg where next.
For that I look at something like this city data I am looking at on screen3 now. Average sold price >100% asking, ppsf over 20% appreciation last mnths, 94.3% rate of owner occupant's, clearly a place people want to be and looks primed for more appreciation AND most importantly good rentability. Because I want to lease while I hold to accrue equitable gains.
The LAST thing I want to do as an investor is to catch a falling knife, you know that. I want Tesla at $180, not $255.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Carlos Ptriawan I really dislike the metric here and the assumption that it means so many other things.
For example, I can pick Dayton MN. I could say "look, median home price shot from $150k too $500k in just a couple years" and leave it without context.
How many would assume it's way popular or IDK, Google made a headquarters there. But none of that happened, it's just a redevelopment.
So much can be skewed in perception from any 1 metric alone, not to mention when i just searched that metric I found no less than 20 radically different list's.
What I care about, where is it GOING to have good appreciation. Cause my time machine is at the shop, so what's in the rear view mirror doesn't help make any $ going forward. I gotta peg where next.
For that I look at something like this city data I am looking at on screen3 now. Average sold price >100% asking, ppsf over 20% appreciation last mnths, 94.3% rate of owner occupant's, clearly a place people want to be and looks primed for more appreciation AND most importantly good rentability. Because I want to lease while I hold to accrue equitable gains.
The LAST thing I want to do as an investor is to catch a falling knife, you know that. I want Tesla at $180, not $255.
This is just the data from Freddie Mac James ;-) I am sorry your town is not on the market. CA and OH wins this year. LOL. Huge rebound.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
@Carlos Ptriawan I really dislike the metric here and the assumption that it means so many other things.
For example, I can pick Dayton MN. I could say "look, median home price shot from $150k too $500k in just a couple years" and leave it without context.
How many would assume it's way popular or IDK, Google made a headquarters there. But none of that happened, it's just a redevelopment.
So much can be skewed in perception from any 1 metric alone, not to mention when i just searched that metric I found no less than 20 radically different list's.
What I care about, where is it GOING to have good appreciation. Cause my time machine is at the shop, so what's in the rear view mirror doesn't help make any $ going forward. I gotta peg where next.
For that I look at something like this city data I am looking at on screen3 now. Average sold price >100% asking, ppsf over 20% appreciation last mnths, 94.3% rate of owner occupant's, clearly a place people want to be and looks primed for more appreciation AND most importantly good rentability. Because I want to lease while I hold to accrue equitable gains.
The LAST thing I want to do as an investor is to catch a falling knife, you know that. I want Tesla at $180, not $255.
This is just the data from Freddie Mac James ;-) I am sorry your town is not on the market. CA and OH wins this year. LOL. Huge rebound.
The moment any of my market's of current activity pop-up on such a list to become "viral" it's time to get out, so glad none of mine are on this list. Still, point is valid, 1 metric is not an accurate indicator of market viability in any direction.
And I am confused on the validity of the list, because as said every list I found was wildly different. Not sure how that works out, how there can be different opinions of a metric such as appreciation in a given year.
I am on acquisition side of things this moment, I prefer no competition so I hope everyone keeps focusing on OH, helps me out a ton. Now, if you can get Blackrock to do the same, you'll be my new "bestie".
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
And I am confused on the validity of the list, because as said every list I found was wildly different. Not sure how that works out, how there can be different opinions of a metric such as appreciation in a given year.
I am on acquisition side of things this moment, I prefer no competition so I hope everyone keeps focusing on OH, helps me out a ton. Now, if you can get Blackrock to do the same, you'll be my new "bestie".
Do you have other data for appreciation YTD ? I wanted to see, result should be similar IMO.
I am actually curious how many cash buyers are their in Ohio ? nationwide it is like 40%. Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
And I am confused on the validity of the list, because as said every list I found was wildly different. Not sure how that works out, how there can be different opinions of a metric such as appreciation in a given year.
I am on acquisition side of things this moment, I prefer no competition so I hope everyone keeps focusing on OH, helps me out a ton. Now, if you can get Blackrock to do the same, you'll be my new "bestie".
Do you have other data for appreciation YTD ? I wanted to see, result should be similar IMO.
I am actually curious how many cash buyers are their in Ohio ? nationwide it is like 40%.
Cash buyers are HUGE in Ohio. I would wager it's arguably the top state for cash buyers, I know Mississippi is there. I have no hard, concrete evidence but I imagine the 35%-40% cash buyers is a really skewy metric.
Take a micro example of like Fayetteville and Raleigh-- Fayetteville is probably 50-60% cash buyers. Raleigh is probably 5%. Slightly more enlarged, 50-70% cash buying in Ohio & Mississippi, 10-20% cash buying coastal FL, CA, prime Hawaii, mountain areas of Jackson Hole, Vail, Aspen.
Every list is different for appreciation, but I totally see these markets catching the eye of investors. They all tend to go the same direction. When you see you're in this market, and bought in that 12mo back timeframe. You were in the wrong spot as an investor. You want to see yourself in that market 2-3 years prior, at the earliest. This is assuming the city doesn't have basis fundamentals(median income households, appropriate industries) to support itself--like California will be fine.- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
And I am confused on the validity of the list, because as said every list I found was wildly different. Not sure how that works out, how there can be different opinions of a metric such as appreciation in a given year.
I am on acquisition side of things this moment, I prefer no competition so I hope everyone keeps focusing on OH, helps me out a ton. Now, if you can get Blackrock to do the same, you'll be my new "bestie".
Do you have other data for appreciation YTD ? I wanted to see, result should be similar IMO.
I am actually curious how many cash buyers are their in Ohio ? nationwide it is like 40%.
Cash buyers are HUGE in Ohio. I would wager it's arguably the top state for cash buyers, I know Mississippi is there. I have no hard, concrete evidence but I imagine the 35%-40% cash buyers is a really skewy metric.
Take a micro example of like Fayetteville and Raleigh-- Fayetteville is probably 50-60% cash buyers. Raleigh is probably 5%. Slightly more enlarged, 50-70% cash buying in Ohio & Mississippi, 10-20% cash buying coastal FL, CA, prime Hawaii, mountain areas of Jackson Hole, Vail, Aspen.
Every list is different for appreciation, but I totally see these markets catching the eye of investors. They all tend to go the same direction. When you see you're in this market, and bought in that 12mo back timeframe. You were in the wrong spot as an investor. You want to see yourself in that market 2-3 years prior, at the earliest. This is assuming the city doesn't have basis fundamentals(median income households, appropriate industries) to support itself--like California will be fine.
these are the recent ZHI changes for future 12 months appreciation, huge changes, it seems only AZ and FL would have mild market in 2024 while CA going to have mild decline , I am surprised FL is de facto strongest market in last three years.
As for @James Hamling, looking at ZHI, it seems we're not going to stagflation scenario but has more bias toward soft landing in 2024, core PPI declines substantially today. We are going to two percent inflation after every small business in America is destroyed by the Fed.
Btw today office PSF in San Fran is crazy $150/sf and Portland is $70. Man....that's beyond recession valuation.
- Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 31k+ posts · 20k+ votes2y
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
And I am confused on the validity of the list, because as said every list I found was wildly different. Not sure how that works out, how there can be different opinions of a metric such as appreciation in a given year.
I am on acquisition side of things this moment, I prefer no competition so I hope everyone keeps focusing on OH, helps me out a ton. Now, if you can get Blackrock to do the same, you'll be my new "bestie".
Do you have other data for appreciation YTD ? I wanted to see, result should be similar IMO.
I am actually curious how many cash buyers are their in Ohio ? nationwide it is like 40%.
Cash buyers are HUGE in Ohio. I would wager it's arguably the top state for cash buyers, I know Mississippi is there. I have no hard, concrete evidence but I imagine the 35%-40% cash buyers is a really skewy metric.
Take a micro example of like Fayetteville and Raleigh-- Fayetteville is probably 50-60% cash buyers. Raleigh is probably 5%. Slightly more enlarged, 50-70% cash buying in Ohio & Mississippi, 10-20% cash buying coastal FL, CA, prime Hawaii, mountain areas of Jackson Hole, Vail, Aspen.It seems the deep pocket money move to san diego and florida (lot of financial co in NY move there so the trend is very clear ). The cash flow investor moves money to Detroit, Ohio and Milwaukee. The Bay area receives 9% appreciation YTD from "buy the dip tech buyers" ; while Austin is the only negative market in 2023 due to oversupply issue.
Ya it's too bad there's no deep dive where that 40% cash buyer is located, but maybe it's Ohio.
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