Well I think Insurance just put the nail in the coffin
And it's the time of year when some of my rentals homeowners are up for renewal...big increases again across the board. Increases in property taxes across the board as well.
Duplex: PITI was $616/mo, to $696/mo, to $817/mo to $889/mo. A 44% increase. In 4 years. Rents for a total of $1350/mo.
SFH 1: PITI $1100, up to $1287 and now $1496. A 36% increase. In two years. Currently rents for $1500.
Fourplex PITI was $919. Now it's ~1300. A 41% increase. In 3 years. Currently rents for $2650 total.
SFH 2: PITI from $778 to $1055. A 35% increase. In 2 years. Rents for $1350.
A few others I haven't gotten notices for, but I know what to expect.
Now the question - can I increase the rent across the board ~40% without losing to vacancy? The obvious answer is no. So we can see that insurance and property taxes are vastly outpacing the allowable increases in rents. One month of vacancy is generally worse than leaving the rent the same. Never mind 2-3 months of vacancy. That can almost wipeout cashflow for the year.
I have also NEVER seen insurance go down. So we can expect this trend to continue. A big storm sometime this year and we're absolutely toast.
So what to do?
Hold the LTRs? I don't think it makes sense. I think LTRs ONLY make sense with SCALE. Meaning apartments, townhomes, trailers etc. Something with shared systems. These one off SFH make sense only for a quick flip or BRRRR for a year and sell (for capital gains).
As far as the tax deductions offsetting income - I have a W2 "high earner" so the depreciation losses are passed on, meaning I'm locking up passive losses. Which is essentially pointless. So there's no gain for me there.
Long story short - I think that's it for me in the SFH LTR space. I just don't see the returns. The money from these rentals would do better in the stock market w/ less risk and less work. When the market drops >20% I'll buy leveraged ETFs on margin with this money. Yes I will keep a healthy cash pile, but I prefer to use margin in this case. If I get margin called I'll use my cash (which I have no problem investing in a down market)
I'm going to plan to sell these off in the next several months and see what I can do to minimize my tax burden. From there it will be running a business. I have figured out that to get the most out of RE you essentially need to have a RE business - wholesaling/flipping/LTRs at scale/STRs etc.
I think I do much better in my W2 than an RE business and I have several business ideas I'd like to pursue. I purchased a plot of land off a major road here about a year ago. So that's going to be the next step. I actually think a business beats RE.
Anyone else in the same boat?