The $1.8 trillion debt wall has a tax problem nobody is talking about

The $1.8 trillion debt wall has a tax problem nobody is talking about

Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes

You have seen the story everywhere this week. WSJ, CRE Daily, every feed. Roughly $1.8 trillion in multifamily debt coming due, refi rates about double the 2020 and 2021 loans, values off the peak. Everyone is covering the debt. Almost nobody is covering the tax.

The connection is simple. Owners who cannot refinance are being forced to sell or hand back the keys. Those forced exits are taxable events. The same wall wiping out equity is about to trigger a wave of tax bills, most of them modeled nowhere.

A distressed sale can trigger tax even at a loss. Recapture does not care that you lost equity. If a deal took cost seg or bonus depreciation, that basis comes back as income at sale, whatever the price. Section 1245 recaptures at ordinary rates, land improvements at 25 percent. In a down market there is little appreciation left to get the 20 percent rate, so the mix shifts higher. You can book a real loss and a taxable gain in the same deal.

A handback is worse. Debt forgiven through a deed in lieu or short sale can become cancellation of debt income or trigger gain from debt relief. So an investor takes a capital loss and an ordinary income pickup in the same year. Section 108 and the partnership rules offer exits, but they are fact specific and rarely modeled. We lost money so there is no tax is often wrong.

Buyers are walking into more tax, not less. The cash buyers grabbing distressed assets run heavy value add. Big renovation means big cost seg and bonus, which means big recapture at exit. If you are raising for one of these buys, your LPs see a pro forma that stops at pre tax. And it is not only their number. Your co-invest carries the same recapture, and if you signed recourse, a forced sale is personal.

LPs are done taking the pro forma on faith. After watching deals collapse with no recourse, the money is skeptical. LPs are starting to ask for an independent read before they wire. In this market a sponsor who can show an outside after tax projection has an edge raising, not a liability.

I am a CPA and former Big 4 fund auditor, and this is the gap I work: the after tax number the pro forma leaves out, before it hits the K-1. Not pitching anything, just flagging what I keep seeing go unmodeled.

For the group: on your last exit, or one you are underwriting now, did the exit tax get modeled before close, or show up on the K-1??

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Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
4d

This is a big issue, and lots of LPs are going to be dealing with it first hand soon, if not already. And with extend and pretend seemingly coming to an end with lenders, the end of the road is likely coming for those sponsors that have successfully kicked the can down the road the last couple years on forced sales.

That being said, while it is certainly good to model on a personal level, I can't help but read this post from an LP/GP perspective and assume you are asking if the GPs modeled tax implications into their own pro formas, especially since this wall of MF debt you are talking about is primarily held in large complexes that most of us cannot buy on our own.

A GP cannot, and should not, be trying to model any LPs tax implications. When I talk to LPs, I will note what historical average K-1 pass through losses have been, due to bonus and accelerated depreciation, but always stop short of saying how it will impact any specific investor's taxes. I simply don't know if they are full W2, have REP status, have other investments that may limit their ability to recognize losses etc. And in terms of a pro forma, why would I ever model a deal with a net loss (taxable or otherwise) at the end?

I look at all investments, whether it be stocks, real estate (passive or active), businesses, etc at the investment level, first. Tax implications have almost no impact on my analysis of whether I make an investment or not. In all areas, I tend to skew to long term holds, other than my flips, so tax implications are minimal, and a "cherry on top" more than anything else.

As I have noted, a 30% return on a stock portfolio will beat the 10% return on real estate, pre and post tax.

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  • Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4d

    This is a big issue, and lots of LPs are going to be dealing with it first hand soon, if not already. And with extend and pretend seemingly coming to an end with lenders, the end of the road is likely coming for those sponsors that have successfully kicked the can down the road the last couple years on forced sales.

    That being said, while it is certainly good to model on a personal level, I can't help but read this post from an LP/GP perspective and assume you are asking if the GPs modeled tax implications into their own pro formas, especially since this wall of MF debt you are talking about is primarily held in large complexes that most of us cannot buy on our own.

    A GP cannot, and should not, be trying to model any LPs tax implications. When I talk to LPs, I will note what historical average K-1 pass through losses have been, due to bonus and accelerated depreciation, but always stop short of saying how it will impact any specific investor's taxes. I simply don't know if they are full W2, have REP status, have other investments that may limit their ability to recognize losses etc. And in terms of a pro forma, why would I ever model a deal with a net loss (taxable or otherwise) at the end?

    I look at all investments, whether it be stocks, real estate (passive or active), businesses, etc at the investment level, first. Tax implications have almost no impact on my analysis of whether I make an investment or not. In all areas, I tend to skew to long term holds, other than my flips, so tax implications are minimal, and a "cherry on top" more than anything else.

    As I have noted, a 30% return on a stock portfolio will beat the 10% return on real estate, pre and post tax.

  • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
    4d

    @Evan Polaski, thank you so much for reading it and providing your insights. Appreciate that, and I agree with most of it.

    You are right that a GP cannot and should not be modeling any single LPs taxes. You have no idea if someone is full W2, has REP status, or has outside passive income soaking up losses, so guessing at their number would do more harm than good. That is not what I am after. The read I am talking about sits at the deal level and does not care whose bracket it lands in.

    Here is the one thread I would pull on though. All that bonus and accelerated depreciation that gives your LPs those nice pass through losses early on does not just vanish. It comes back as recapture when the deal sells. And how much of that exit gain is recapture versus long term gain is a fact about the property, not about the investor. The pre tax IRR never shows it because it only hits at the sale, and it shows up even when the deal is a winner. That was the whole point I was getting at, not modeling some loss scenario.

    And on investment first, you get no argument from me. The return has to be there, and a good deal is a good deal. The after tax read does not change that. It just tells the LP what they actually walk away with, so the 12% IRR they got sold on is not suddenly an 8% IRR when the K1 shows up.

  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 850 votes
    4d

    This is a good point. We invest as a group of LPs, and we’ve seen how quickly an exit can change when the refinance assumptions stop working. When we vet a deal, we stress test the debt, ask what happens if the exit is delayed or the sale price falls, and look closely at the operator’s track record in tough situations.

    You’ve added a question we should ask more directly.. if that downside case happens, what could investors owe in taxes even if they get little or no cash back? I’d want the operator’s CPA to walk us through that on a deal promising large upfront depreciation deductions.

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      4d

      Yeah, you just hit on the exact hidden risk. The ugliest version of owing tax on money you never see is debt relief. When the property sells or goes back to the lender, the loan that gets wiped out counts as cash in your hands as far as the IRS is concerned, even though not a dollar of it actually lands with you. Now stack that on a basis that years of depreciation already chewed down, and you can end up writing a check on a gain in a deal that felt like a straight loss.

      That is the whole reason the bad case needs its own after tax line and not just a footnote under the base case. What you asked, what do we actually owe if the exit flops and almost nothing comes back, is the one number a pro forma will never show you. And you are dead right that the operators CPA should be the one walking the group through it, on paper, before anybody wires money.

  • Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
    Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 216 posts · 71 votes
    4d

    @Kasing Ng this is an important point. Many underwriting models spend pages on debt, cap rates, and sale proceeds, but the after-tax outcome is often reduced to a footnote—or omitted entirely. Depreciation, cost segregation, suspended losses, debt structure, entity basis, and the character of the gain can produce a very different result from the headline equity loss. One nuance is that the outcome depends heavily on whether the debt is recourse or nonrecourse and on the investor’s basis and partnership allocations, so a distressed sale, short sale, or deed in lieu needs to be modeled deal by deal. Sponsors who provide an independent after-tax exit analysis would likely build credibility with LPs, especially if it includes downside scenarios rather than only the projected base case. In my experience, exit taxes are too often addressed late in the process instead of being incorporated into the underwriting before close.

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      4d

      Divin this is a sharp add and the recourse vs nonrecourse split is the one that bites hardest in this wall.

      A deed in lieu or short sale on nonrecourse debt still throws off gain to the extent the debt exceeds basis, and after years of depreciation that basis is on the floor. Owner walks away with no cash and a tax bill anyway. Recourse stacks cancellation of debt income on top unless they are insolvent. Nobody prices that at acquisition because the base case never contemplates a forced exit, which is your whole point about modeling it deal by deal.

      Are you seeing operators actually run the distressed cases yet, or still only the base pro forma?

  • Investor · Bay Area, CA · Member since 2014 · 165 posts · 45 votes
    3d

    @Kasing Ng , thanks for shining a light on this issue.

    So you said,...

    "All that bonus and accelerated depreciation that gives your LPs those nice pass through losses early on does not just vanish. It comes back as recapture when the deal sells. And how much of that exit gain is recapture versus long term gain is a fact about the property, not about the investor. The pre tax IRR never shows it because it only hits at the sale, and it shows up even when the deal is a winner. "

    I am a LP that has a profitable exit coming up and plan to find a new passive investment to do a "lazy 1031" to minimize the tax impact.

    However, I will do my best not to let the tax tail wag the dog and will take the cash gains if a suitable replacement does not come along.

    To model for the returns on an after tax basis, would one just incorporate to the IRR calculation some tax adjusted figures from boxes 9 and 10 from the final K-1 to derive a tax adjusted net IRR or EM from the investment? Or should I be taking other things into account?

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      3d

      Thanks @David S., appreciate you digging into it.

      Short answer, the capital gain lines on the K-1, the 9 and 10 you mentioned, get you part of the way, but they leave out the piece that usually hurts the most. A lot of the depreciation that gave you those nice early losses, especially the bonus and cost seg, comes back as ordinary income when the deal sells, not capital gain. That part does not sit in those boxes, it shows up separately and gets taxed at your regular rate plus the 3.8 net investment tax. So if you build the after tax IRR off just 9 and 10, the exit will look better than it really is.

      The other big one for you is California. The state gives capital gains no break at all, so on a Bay Area exit the state tax is often the single largest line in the whole thing. Run it federal only and it will flatter the deal.

      And do not forget your own suspended losses. All those passive losses you could not use against your regular income over the years, they free up when the deal fully sells and knock the gain down. That one works in your favor and people leave it out all the time.

      On the lazy 1031, that actually fits nicely here. Since you are fully selling, those old suspended losses release the same year, and then the fresh bonus depreciation from the new deal stacks on top. The thing to watch is timing, the new losses only offset passive income and they have to land the same year as the gain, so the sizing matters.

      This is basically the exact read I build for people. Glad to get more specific if it helps. Are you modeling the deal that is exiting, or lining it up against a replacement to compare?

  • Specialist · I give advice - [email protected] - I focus on states where investing is profitable, reasonably safe & secure · Member since 2026 · 15 posts · 3 votes
    2d
    Quote from @Kasing Ng:

    You have seen the story everywhere this week. WSJ, CRE Daily, every feed. Roughly $1.8 trillion in multifamily debt coming due, refi rates about double the 2020 and 2021 loans, values off the peak. Everyone is covering the debt. Almost nobody is covering the tax.

    The connection is simple. Owners who cannot refinance are being forced to sell or hand back the keys. Those forced exits are taxable events. The same wall wiping out equity is about to trigger a wave of tax bills, most of them modeled nowhere.

    A distressed sale can trigger tax even at a loss. Recapture does not care that you lost equity. If a deal took cost seg or bonus depreciation, that basis comes back as income at sale, whatever the price. Section 1245 recaptures at ordinary rates, land improvements at 25 percent. In a down market there is little appreciation left to get the 20 percent rate, so the mix shifts higher. You can book a real loss and a taxable gain in the same deal.

    A handback is worse. Debt forgiven through a deed in lieu or short sale can become cancellation of debt income or trigger gain from debt relief. So an investor takes a capital loss and an ordinary income pickup in the same year. Section 108 and the partnership rules offer exits, but they are fact specific and rarely modeled. We lost money so there is no tax is often wrong.

    Buyers are walking into more tax, not less. The cash buyers grabbing distressed assets run heavy value add. Big renovation means big cost seg and bonus, which means big recapture at exit. If you are raising for one of these buys, your LPs see a pro forma that stops at pre tax. And it is not only their number. Your co-invest carries the same recapture, and if you signed recourse, a forced sale is personal.

    LPs are done taking the pro forma on faith. After watching deals collapse with no recourse, the money is skeptical. LPs are starting to ask for an independent read before they wire. In this market a sponsor who can show an outside after tax projection has an edge raising, not a liability.

    I am a CPA and former Big 4 fund auditor, and this is the gap I work: the after tax number the pro forma leaves out, before it hits the K-1. Not pitching anything, just flagging what I keep seeing go unmodeled.

    For the group: on your last exit, or one you are underwriting now, did the exit tax get modeled before close, or show up on the K-1??

    What is the outcome if it's allowed to go into foreclosure?

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      2d

      @John Leland Foreclosure is really just the involuntary version of the handback, so it lands the same way. The IRS still calls it a sale, so you can owe recapture and, on a recourse loan, cancellation of debt income even though you walked with nothing, unless you are insolvent or bankrupt and can knock the Cancellation of Debt (COD) out.

  • John MorganPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Grand Prairie, TX · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    2d

    1.8 trillion in debt coming due will have a major ripple effect. And many of the MF investors that have this debt coming due will be wiped out unfortunately. Then the tax implications on top of that when they sell for a huge loss you mentioned will be a major kick in the nuts for investors. Tough times. But a great time for renters looking for a cheap apartment or investors wanting to pick up MF investments for a 50% or more discount! SF will be fine due to fixed 15 or 30 year debt and higher demand. 

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      1d

      Good point, @John Morgan . One wrinkle worth adding: how far below basis they sell changes the tax a lot. A deep discount is usually an ordinary loss they can write off against other income, which softens the blow. It is the moderate declines that surprise people, where the market price still clears their depreciated basis and they owe recapture on a deal they lost money on. You looking to pick up any of those discounted deals yourself?

    • John MorganPro Member
      Rental Property Investor · Grand Prairie, TX · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
      23h

      @Kasing Ng No, I don't do multi family. But I've been picking up 4 or 5 SFH the last few years due to desperate sellers practically giving them away.

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      19h

      @John Morgan Nice, 4 or 5 in this market is a solid run, John. One buy-side thing most people miss: your depreciation runs off what you paid, not what the place is worth. So buying way under market means smaller write-offs each year, but a bigger gain waiting at sale. Good to know before you refi or sell one. You holding these long term or flipping a few?

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    2d

    I would be betting that most did not get the K-1 they were planning on. I also heard this week of a very large fund that does more than MF is having some troubles which they have multiple asset classes so this came out of blue. I wonder if it is because of the debt coming to maturity.

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    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      19h

      Yeah @Chris Seveney , if debt's the driver it won't stay in MF. Anything that levered up cheap and has to refi now is in the same spot, whatever the asset class. And you nailed the K-1 part: when a leveraged deal sells or gets foreclosed, the debt coming off the LP's books counts as cash under 752, so they can owe tax on a deal that lost money with nothing in hand.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2d

    back in the GFC when I had a bunch of loans out and had to foreclose on about 200 of my borrowers we were printing 1099s and the only way the borrowers got out of those being taxable was to prove they were insolvent which many were.

    recapture is a beotch in this game.. and cost seg only makes it worse once you go down that rabbit hole there is no exit you need to stay in the deal for life.. And then just have your kids inherit it at the stepped up basis.. or maybe not sure you can exit with a charitable remainder trust situation I have been in involved buying props from folks that had those. ( mainly timberland). But its not only real estate I took the huge right off in 2004 when I bought my plane brand new and when I had to sell during the GFC I had a whopper recapture and the only thing that helped ( not really helped) but we were losing so much money in RE business it offset. So thats why you see companies always moving up to bigger planes LOL..

    I have one right now were i took the bonus and at sale thankfully it went up enough .. but even if I try to exit now I will just get my down payment back the profit I would make on the appreciation is owed to uncle sam. So i am forced to 1031.. If it was not so bloody I would just pay the tax. And this has me rethinking my whole tax strategy after the fact of course. WE are just small potato's in this I can imagine the larger companies with millions upon millions of assets having to deal with this and for sure LP's by the thousands who are going to have big tax hits from the syndicators that have already lost properties and are well documented here on BP.

    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
      23h
      Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

      back in the GFC when I had a bunch of loans out and had to foreclose on about 200 of my borrowers we were printing 1099s and the only way the borrowers got out of those being taxable was to prove they were insolvent which many were.

      recapture is a beotch in this game.. and cost seg only makes it worse once you go down that rabbit hole there is no exit you need to stay in the deal for life.. And then just have your kids inherit it at the stepped up basis.. or maybe not sure you can exit with a charitable remainder trust situation I have been in involved buying props from folks that had those. ( mainly timberland). But its not only real estate I took the huge right off in 2004 when I bought my plane brand new and when I had to sell during the GFC I had a whopper recapture and the only thing that helped ( not really helped) but we were losing so much money in RE business it offset. So thats why you see companies always moving up to bigger planes LOL..

      I have one right now were i took the bonus and at sale thankfully it went up enough .. but even if I try to exit now I will just get my down payment back the profit I would make on the appreciation is owed to uncle sam. So i am forced to 1031.. If it was not so bloody I would just pay the tax. And this has me rethinking my whole tax strategy after the fact of course. WE are just small potato's in this I can imagine the larger companies with millions upon millions of assets having to deal with this and for sure LP's by the thousands who are going to have big tax hits from the syndicators that have already lost properties and are well documented here on BP.

      I am about to sell my STR that I did a cost seg on and unfortunately will be in that tax boat next year. Luckily I will have some capital gains loss that will at least help offset some of the depreciation tax recapture bill. Well, 😂 I say "luckily" but in a true lucky situation I'd have profits to help offset the tax bill 🤣.

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    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      19h

      Ha, love the honesty @JD Martin 😄 One heads up: the cost-seg part of that recapture is ordinary income, so a capital loss mostly bounces off it, it really only offsets the capital-gain side of the sale. The 25% piece and any straight gain, sure, but the cost-seg chunk is stubborn. Might be less covered than it looks, worth a peek before you sign.

    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
      12h
      Quote from @Kasing Ng:

      Ha, love the honesty @JD Martin 😄 One heads up: the cost-seg part of that recapture is ordinary income, so a capital loss mostly bounces off it, it really only offsets the capital-gain side of the sale. The 25% piece and any straight gain, sure, but the cost-seg chunk is stubborn. Might be less covered than it looks, worth a peek before you sign.

      Yeah, I realize that I'll be at ordinary income on that side but my cg loss will help my overall tax bill. I've already run the scenario and because of the loss it still was worthwhile doing the cost seg, but I'm betting I'll get out better from the market I'm in now and try to swoop back in on the downturn than to keep bailing the boat out and wait for better times. Being a REP helps a lot for me, for others this would be worse. 

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    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      19h

      @Jay Hinrichs , this is the bind that nobody warns you about going in. One wrinkle that makes it stickier: the personal-property slice of a cost seg, the 5 and 7 year stuff, can't ride along in a 1031 since 2018, only the real estate defers. So even the exchange you are forced into leaves that recapture on the table. Kind of confirms your read, which is why the only real escapes are staying in for the step-up or spreading it out. The recapture does not forgive, it just waits.

  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1d

    OP the impact shouldn’t be that great if smart people at the GP level????? Or not so smart people…. Both from a Tax depr recapture or a Refinancing standpoint.

    Most Syndications exit strategy should be 3 to 5 years. Some 7. You LP and GP correct me.

    Tax depreciation rates aren’t straight line. 3/5/7/15 year life classes. Within the first 3 years over 70% of the depreciation in life classes 3/5 would have been taken so little recapture. Unless a really good sales price. Virtual all of the 3/5/7 year assets will have been deducted by year 5. No recapture unless a great sale. Even Year 1 100% dept should have little impact if the 15 year life assets aren’t to great of the mix.

    Refinancing- if anyone did an ARM they should be xxxxxxxx. If a 3 or 5 year balloon. Then need to compare to exit strategy 3 or 5 year. If exit year 3 then no impact if they executed correctly.

    If year 4 on a 3 year exit. Only one year of higher interest impact. Little impact. Lower return but smaller expense impact.

    The ones who will be impacted are the deals that did not execute against planned rental rates, occupancy, capex overhaul, etc. Which is just managerial failure.

    I have failed at not anticipating Property tax increase on one property $45k change to $85k annual due to valuation increase. Construction took a year longer so $60k interest not planned. Mother Nature kicked our butts for a year. City water to property- there was a fire hydrant there, but private and didn't go with our property. $130k. I now know color coding for hydrants. We all have our failures, but even the above ended up being great deals. But, but, we were the only investors. No GP/LP so there was plenty of meat on the bone to cover these.

    Life should be good for most LP GP considering depreciation recapture and refinancing. Just rerun your deal analysis. Problem is these are illiquid investments. And at this point you have no control as a LP.

    If you lost $25,000 on a $50,000 investment that is cheap learning. Move on to your next deal.

    • Accountant · San Francisco, CA | Remote · Member since 2026 · 57 posts · 31 votes
      19h

      @Henry Clark , agreed execution is the whole game, and matching the hold to the debt term takes most of the refi risk off. One piece I wanted to point out though: fully depreciating an asset does not shrink the recapture, it maxes it out. What you deducted is exactly what comes back, measured against your gain, and the gain runs off your gutted basis, not your purchase price. So even a flat or slightly-down sale can throw a bill, not just the great ones. You are right the 3/5/7 personal property usually lost real value, so that piece stays small, the sting is the building's 1250. Which is why it bites hardest on the mediocre exits, right where the LP isn't expecting it.

  • Technology · NY · Member since 2026 · 19 posts · 3 votes
    4h

    Great question. Most people only look at Principal & Interest (P&I), but your real monthly payment is PITI:

    • P - Principal

    • I - Interest

    • T - Taxes (property taxes)

    • I - Insurance (homeowners + PMI if applicable)

    On a $400,000 home with 10% down at 6.5%:

    • P&I: $2,529

    • Property Taxes: $500

    • Insurance: $150

    • PMI: $206

    • Total PITI: $3,385

    That's a $856 difference. Always budget for the full PITI, not just P&I.

    If you want to run your own numbers, I built a free calculator that shows the full PITI breakdown instantly: https://smartmortgagecalc.space

    It's free, no sign-up required, and doesn't sell your data.

    What's your target monthly payment?

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