Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
If you MUST sell your home soon, price your home aggressively and dump it, preferably before January 1 to catch the annual STR bonus depreciation buyers, because the value is likely going to be declining in the near term.
Here is why:
For an owner-occupied single-family residence, the 30 year fixed rate is at 7 percent or higher right now. Investment loans are in the 8 percent range. Each of these represent 20-year highs.
What is so significant about 20 years? Because buying a STR for investment/income purposes began reaching vogue status only within the last decade. We don't know how this investment behaves with higher rates, but common sense says there is going to be significant downward pressure on home values.
In simple math, for every 100 basis points that lending rates rise (say from 7 to 8 percent), the house has to be discounted 10 percent for the Return On Investment (ROI) to work. The calculated ROI for the typical STR declines when the cost of money goes up.
What is the answer? If you are trying to sell at 2022 values and interest rates, lots of luck. Savvy investors won't be able to make the numbers work and will wait until a price comes along that makes sense. That means you are going to be dependent upon uneducated buyers and/or buyers that have some level of emotional attachment to your place that offers value to them besides simply the investment value.
Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
1w
Quote from @Collin Hays:
If you MUST sell your home soon, price your home aggressively and dump it, preferably before January 1 to catch the annual STR bonus depreciation buyers, because the value is likely going to be declining in the near term.
Here is why:
For an owner-occupied single-family residence, the 30 year fixed rate is at 7 percent or higher right now. Investment loans are in the 8 percent range. Each of these represent 20-year highs.
What is so significant about 20 years? Because buying a STR for investment/income purposes began reaching vogue status only within the last decade. We don't know how this investment behaves with higher rates, but common sense says there is going to be significant downward pressure on home values.
In simple math, for every 100 basis points that lending rates rise (say from 7 to 8 percent), the house has to be discounted 10 percent for the Return On Investment (ROI) to work. The calculated ROI for the typical STR declines when the cost of money goes up.
What is the answer? If you are trying to sell at 2022 values and interest rates, lots of luck. Savvy investors won't be able to make the numbers work and will wait until a price comes along that makes sense. That means you are going to be dependent upon uneducated buyers and/or buyers that have some level of emotional attachment to your place that offers value to them besides simply the investment value.
I just sold mine and am anticipating trying to catch something else in what I think might be a down market in the next 6-12 months. if I'm wrong, well I'll just be realigning my own personal needs with a different property.
Excellent points. I feel there are multiple reasons why STRs are likely to struggle in the near future and I’m not sure that is entirely a bad thing. Like the .com bubble and the interest only mortgage debacle of mid 2000s the run up of STRs over the past 6 years is not sustainable.
RE is generally a long term play and while a property can always be sold if the price is low enough having the reserves and discipline to wait out an unfavorable market is crucial. The ones I see consistently taking a bath are generally young professionals who decide they have to move and it will cost them because they just paid top dollar for a fully renovated home.
Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 342 posts · 127 votes
1w
@Collin Hays Higher borrowing costs are definitely affecting what buyers can afford and what short-term rentals are worth. If someone needs to sell soon, it makes sense to price around today’s rates and cash flow rather than 2022 market conditions.
That said, a one-point increase in rates does not always translate into a 10% price drop. The effect depends on the property’s income, expenses, financing, local demand, and the buyer’s goals. Bonus depreciation may help attract some year-end buyers, but the underlying numbers still need to work. A realistic price supported by actual performance is usually the strongest approach, especially since market conditions can shift and no near-term outcome is certain.
Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
1w
Quote from @Collin Hays:
If you MUST sell your home soon, price your home aggressively and dump it, preferably before January 1 to catch the annual STR bonus depreciation buyers, because the value is likely going to be declining in the near term.
Here is why:
For an owner-occupied single-family residence, the 30 year fixed rate is at 7 percent or higher right now. Investment loans are in the 8 percent range. Each of these represent 20-year highs.
What is so significant about 20 years? Because buying a STR for investment/income purposes began reaching vogue status only within the last decade. We don't know how this investment behaves with higher rates, but common sense says there is going to be significant downward pressure on home values.
In simple math, for every 100 basis points that lending rates rise (say from 7 to 8 percent), the house has to be discounted 10 percent for the Return On Investment (ROI) to work. The calculated ROI for the typical STR declines when the cost of money goes up.
What is the answer? If you are trying to sell at 2022 values and interest rates, lots of luck. Savvy investors won't be able to make the numbers work and will wait until a price comes along that makes sense. That means you are going to be dependent upon uneducated buyers and/or buyers that have some level of emotional attachment to your place that offers value to them besides simply the investment value.
I just sold mine and am anticipating trying to catch something else in what I think might be a down market in the next 6-12 months. if I'm wrong, well I'll just be realigning my own personal needs with a different property.
Accountant · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2026 · 90 posts · 48 votes
6d
Agree on the pricing pressure. One thing worth adding for anyone eyeing the exit is the tax on the way out.
A lot of these STRs were bought for the bonus depreciation in the first place, cost seg, big first-year write-off. That gets recaptured when you sell, and the cost-seg slice comes back at ordinary rates, not the 25% building rate. So you can sell into a soft market, take less than you wanted on price, and still owe a real tax bill. Lost value and a tax hit on the same deal.
Does not change the "price it to move" call. Just means the seller should run the after-tax number before setting a price, because the sale price is not what they keep.
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
6d
@Kasing Ng I know we talked about cost seg recapture on another thread but this bears repeating so many folks simply dont get the full scope of bonus depreciation.. I know I did not when I took it first time.. it creates a lot of stress vis a vi I can never exit this investment unless it goes way up in value I will just give back what I save a few years ago in a big fat whopping tax bill.. One question if it comes back at ordinary income levels and your at the highest level then the tax is over the normal cap gain.. what about you have a bad year and your tax bracket is lower can it be lower than 25% cap gain ???
Accountant · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2026 · 90 posts · 48 votes
6d
@Jay Hinrichs the 25% you're thinking of is a different bucket. Thats the cap on the building's straight-line depreciation (the 1250 stuff). Your bonus and cost seg is mostly 1245 personal property, and that comes back at ordinary rates, no 25% cap on it.
So yeah, in a low year it can land under 25%. But the recapture is a big chunk of ordinary income by itself, it stacks on top of whatever else you've got and climbs the brackets, so it kind of sets its own rate. A down year helps less than you'd hope.
The real win is the spread. Deduct in a 37% year, recapture in a lower one, you pocket the difference for good on top of the deferral. That's the part that makes it not a total wash. You don't always give it back at the rate you saved it.
Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6d
For anyone looking at Florida - buyers think its 2008 and sellers think its 2021. Before I even underwrite a deal to check cashflow etc I check sellers temperate on wanting to actually do a deal. They are out there but its not just a little work on the broker side. The smart sellers are actually underpricing their homes and still getting multiple offers (if renovated, performing well, etc.). Most sellers opt to take a shot $50k over market value and then by the time they start dropping the listing is stale.
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
6d
In the Smokies, the phenomenon is real. Sales will be picking up in Q4 and will fall off a cliff in Q1 2027.
I personally would never rush into anything due to tax consequences, but people do all sorts of gymnastics to delay giving their $$ to Uncle Sam. I don't like the stress. I just figure he's going to get it anyway. Pay it now and move on.
Specialist · Washington State · Member since 2026 · 1 post · 0 votes
6d
For new buyers that must finance, a key filter for this part of the economic timeline is weighing STR market home values against addressable revenue. Some markets still have high revenue-to-value relationships, and are still worth looking at, depending upon your goals and financials.
But, as others have said, we're still likely to see a market correction as some operators leave due to a combo of feeling forced out by interest rates, marketplace margin increases and/or reduced demand due to economic backdrop.
Real Estate Consultant · Charleston, SC · Member since 2024 · 37 posts · 9 votes
6d
Rates did this in 2022 and I had to learn and absolutely hunt for seller/creative deals all over the state of Florida for my buyers- and never looked back ha.. Seller financing and wraps can be a great win-win that maximizes the sellers returns, defers their taxes and helps a deal to pencil for the buyer.. High end STR creative deals are a completely different ballgame than when it's a distressed home with a distressed seller. There's an art to every piece of the puzzle but definitely worth considering (or mastering ha)