What a world's fair teaches investors: buy the dirt, not the building

What a world's fair teaches investors: buy the dirt, not the building

Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

A friend asked me whether Louisville really had a world's fair. It did, and the paperwork has a good lesson in it for anyone who buys land.

It was called the Southern Exposition. It opened August 1, 1883, and ran every summer and fall through 1887. The city's Board of Trade sold stock at $25 a share and raised about $221,000 in roughly five weeks, short of the $300,000 goal. They built it anyway. Money in hand January 1, doors open August 1.

The grounds covered about 45 acres between Fourth and Sixth streets. The main building was two stories of wood and glass, about 600 by 900 feet, roughly 13 acres under one roof, and it may have been the largest wooden building ever built in the United States. When the sun went down, 4,600 of Edison's new light bulbs came on inside it. In the first 88 days, 770,048 people came through the gates. Louisville had about 124,000 people in 1880. That's more than six times the whole city in one summer.

Then it disappeared. The last season ended in 1887, and by 1889 the building was gone. Part of the lumber went one block away into a theater. Nobody hid anything. The land was now worth more than the shed sitting on it.

In 1890 a group called the Victoria Land Company bought the whole tract for $300,000, which is roughly $11 million in today's dollars. They laid it out like the squares of London: St. James Court and Belgravia Court, a green down the middle, a fountain. The lots sold and the houses went up between 1892 and 1905. A stone castle built on the old grounds between 1893 and 1895 is still standing and open for tours. And the St. James Court Art Show just ran its 70th year on the same ground.

The building was the billboard. The dirt was the asset.

The fair brought the crowds, the streetcar traffic, the electric light and the attention to what had been open land on the southern edge of town. Louisville's first electric streetcar line started running in 1889. Once all that was in place, a 13-acre wooden shed was the worst possible use of that land.

Here's how I'd apply it:

  1. Don't fall in love with the building. Follow where the people, the transportation, and the money are going.

  2. A temporary anchor can create permanent value. A fair, a stadium, a hospital expansion, a plant opening. People decide they like the place, and the land under it ends up worth more than whatever is standing on it.

  3. Buy before the lots hit the market. The people who bought on St. James Court in 1890 weren't buying a fair. They were buying where the crowd was headed.

What temporary anchor in your market is bringing people to land that's still priced for its old use? I'm curious what you're watching.

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
1w

here is my real world land in the path of progress that went full cycle.

3.5 acres Sonoma county CA. new interchange built accessing the 101 freeway.. Home depo anchor tenant shopping center .. it sat there all by its self.

my property was about 3.4 of mile off of the freeway ag land NON buildable ( would not perc Sonoma county very tough on septic systems)

Price to buy in 96 was 27k paid cash and sat on it.. paid tax's of 300 a year and mowed it about every 3 years for another 500.00 per time.

Largest casino and largest land transaction in Sonoma county history happens across the main drag from our parcel. Largest Casino / hotel gets built ( Graton Casino) Casino improves the road from the freeway which improves our site.. City now wants to expand and fill in and we come into the city up zoned to Allow mixed use commercial and resi.

We put it on the market in about 2014 nothing happens for years as things are being built next to us and all the while improvements and construction going on. Finally in 2020 a developer is doing a land assemblage and buys us for 2.2 million! we spent no money other than the tax's and mowing and just went along with the ride we took a risk on where the city would grow to. Now granted I suspect 27k in apple stock might have given us the same return :) But 27k to buy a rental probably not. So love the land game and right now we are financing developers start up costs and some of those projects are making WILD returns for the developer who snags the parcel and can take it from Farm to pre plat ready to build.

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    1w

    here is my real world land in the path of progress that went full cycle.

    3.5 acres Sonoma county CA. new interchange built accessing the 101 freeway.. Home depo anchor tenant shopping center .. it sat there all by its self.

    my property was about 3.4 of mile off of the freeway ag land NON buildable ( would not perc Sonoma county very tough on septic systems)

    Price to buy in 96 was 27k paid cash and sat on it.. paid tax's of 300 a year and mowed it about every 3 years for another 500.00 per time.

    Largest casino and largest land transaction in Sonoma county history happens across the main drag from our parcel. Largest Casino / hotel gets built ( Graton Casino) Casino improves the road from the freeway which improves our site.. City now wants to expand and fill in and we come into the city up zoned to Allow mixed use commercial and resi.

    We put it on the market in about 2014 nothing happens for years as things are being built next to us and all the while improvements and construction going on. Finally in 2020 a developer is doing a land assemblage and buys us for 2.2 million! we spent no money other than the tax's and mowing and just went along with the ride we took a risk on where the city would grow to. Now granted I suspect 27k in apple stock might have given us the same return :) But 27k to buy a rental probably not. So love the land game and right now we are financing developers start up costs and some of those projects are making WILD returns for the developer who snags the parcel and can take it from Farm to pre plat ready to build.

  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 885 votes
    1w

    I like the lesson here: the building can change, but the land is what you’re really buying. I’d pay close attention to where jobs, people and infrastructure are moving. Sometimes the best investment isn’t the property that looks great today, but the one sitting where the next wave of growth is headed.

  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4d

    @Jay Hinrichs That's the whole post in one real deal. $27,000 cash in 1996, taxes and a mow every few years, then an interchange, an anchor tenant, a casino that improved the road, annexation and an upzone, and finally a developer assembling parcels in 2020 for $2.2 million. The part people skip is the 24 years of patience, and that you never spent money trying to force it.

    And you're right that farm to pre-plat is where the big jump happens, because entitlement risk is exactly what the end buyer is paying someone else to carry. When you're financing those start-up costs, what's the first thing you check to know a parcel is actually in the path and not just near it?

    @G. Brian Davis Exactly. Jobs, people and infrastructure. The building is what's there today. The land is what's coming.

  • Ashish AcharyaBusiness Member
    CPA, CFP®, PFS · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2017 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4d

    Rob, I like the way you framed this. Sometimes the temporary thing happening around a property is more valuable than the building that's sitting there today.

    One thing I'd add is to think about the tax strategy alongside the land strategy. The tax treatment can look very different depending on whether you're holding the land as a long-term investment, developing it, or buying with the intention of reselling it.

    I'd also keep the land and any future improvement costs clearly separated from day one. If that temporary anchor eventually leads to a development or major repositioning, having the basis and project costs properly documented becomes pretty important.

    The bigger lesson for me is similar to yours: don't just underwrite what's sitting on the dirt today. Look at why people are coming there, what's changing around it, and what the land could realistically become.

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  • Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3d

    @Ashish Acharya Good add, and it fits the story. The people who bought those lots in 1890 were holding dirt, then building on it, then some of them reselling it, and each of those is a different situation once taxes come into it. How land is held and why is a question for your CPA before you buy, not after, and I'd stay in my lane on the details.

    The cost-tracking point is the practical one I see people miss. Surveys, perc tests, engineering, rezoning fees, road work: if it isn't separated and documented from day one, nobody can piece it back together three years later when the project finally happens.

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