Who’s Ready for a Recession 2020?

109 Replies

I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen next year. I, for one, don't have 2020 vision

(Had to make the obvious joke when I saw no one had. Sorry not sorry)

Personally, my goal is to invest in such a manner that I really wouldn't have to worry about any kind of recession.

@Jazlynn Gibbs , the difference this time is having Trump involved who is super unpredictable. His tariff war is real and I would not underestimate his resolve in bashing China but at the same time Trump is very mindful of US manufacturing and supply chain problems. His bark is a lot worse than his bite. As to the effect on real estate investing (recession or not), I don't see a large impact on the middle or low end of the SFR market, which is largely driven by rental demand, so long term rental investors will be fine so long as they maintain their properties and continue to be responsive to their customers (tenants). Flippers will also do fine (recession or not) so long as they continue to buy & sell regularly because prices (buying on the front end and selling on the back end) tend to move together. Lastly, these low interest rates give all real estate investing a significant tail wind (recession or not). All this to say you asked the wrong question. The better question is: what will interest rates do over the next 5 years?

Originally posted by @Wayne Woodson :

Yes! Sell me your house now because next year it will be less than 50% of what it is worth. I can pay all cash and close quickly.

If you actually believe what you are saying, then that doesn't make you very smart, does it?

 

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A market correction is on the horizon when unkown. I would continue to do your underwriting correctly, build up reserves, and have a contigency budget. 

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