duplex in Ocal, Florida vs duplex in Phoenix, AZ area
Gabe AllenPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Roseburg, OR · Member since 2017 · 2 posts · 1 voteduplex in Ocal, Florida vs duplex in Phoenix, AZ area
Most Popular Reply
Noah CorwickPro Member
Realtor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2021 · 271 posts · 115 votesHi Gabe,
In my experience, it's difficult to find a duplex in PHX that cash flow.
So if you are more concentrated on appreciation, PHX might be solid.
PHX overall is still developing from a MFH standpoint (outside of large apartment complexes), as apartment or SFH rent living is the default way to go out here.
I personally feel that more renters will be open MFH in the next 5 years or so as ADU laws get more appealing and affordability continues to be an issue.
10 Replies
- 8moJason WrayPro MemberBanker · Nationwide · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Gabe,
My opinion is that Florida is going to become a very popular and lucrative state to on real estate over the next several year. AZ is a very Hot boring state here the market blew up from people moving out of CA to avoid high taxes, over priced homes and during COVID.
The market has shifted and some home are actually under value with some home owners owing more than their mortgage. Florida on the other hand will always be an amenity state and never seasonal. Florida is a year round money maker for REI and equity/appreciation no that land in many rural areas are being purchased and now being built on for both housing and commercial properties.
You have Citrus County, Lee County, Pasco County, Polk County, Pinellas County and others all on the rise offering great homes and neighborhoods. If you ever have any questions about Florida feel free to check out my profile and reach out via email. I enjoy helping other Bigger Pockets members of and building useful REI contacts and Networks!
- Developer · Palm City, FL · Member since 2018 · 326 posts · 99 votes8mo
@Gabe Allen I agree with Jason. I am in Florida, happy to connect you with the right people. Feel free to drop me a note in PM.
- 7moNoah CorwickPro MemberRealtor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2021 · 271 posts · 115 votes
Hi Gabe,
In my experience, it's difficult to find a duplex in PHX that cash flow.
So if you are more concentrated on appreciation, PHX might be solid.
PHX overall is still developing from a MFH standpoint (outside of large apartment complexes), as apartment or SFH rent living is the default way to go out here.
I personally feel that more renters will be open MFH in the next 5 years or so as ADU laws get more appealing and affordability continues to be an issue.
- 7moDan H.Pro MemberInvestor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
Dave Meyer recent podcast discussing best and worse housing markets.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1218#nav-mobi...
I like Dave and his numbers, but do not like the use of best and worst. Highest and lowest appreciating is more descriptive. Typically best sellers market is poor buyers market and vice versa.
Spoiler alert Florida is projected to have the most cities with low or negative appreciation. I have been following the Emerald Coast market for 3 years. It is down significantly in that span.
Next state with a lot of cities with low or negative appreciation forecast is Texas. Austin is the poster child.
Only 2 cities in lowest appreciation forecast were not in Florida or Texas, Las Vegas and Nashville. I have been to Las Vegas twice in the last 6 months. The decline is visible but nothing compared to GFC.
Here is the reality, if the prices have fallen significantly, is it a good buy opportunity? That depends on how close to bottom the current prices are. I plan to do underwriting on a property in Florida that we may make an offer. It is down a lot and has a private beach access. Beaches are finite, to have exclusive access to a beach is likely to get more desirable as the population continues to increase.
My own take on both phoenix and most of Florida is that they are locations best suited for only part of the year. I cannot tolerate phoenix over 100 consecutive days over 100 degrees of Florida’s heat/humidity at its peak. Maybe I am spoiled with the weather where I live. Besides there being parts of the year that I would choose not to live there they both can be nice. Phoenix has lovely deserts, national parks/monuments, significant sports teams. Florida trade the phoenix desert for beach. I have spent a fair amount of time in both; they both have nice features.
As for best investment, no one knows. I suggest you pick the place you like better and if it does worse investment wise than the other, at least you are living where you most desire.
Good luck
- Rental Property Investor · Roseburg, OR · Member since 2017 · 2 posts · 1 vote7mo
Quote from @Dan H.:
Dave Meyer recent podcast discussing best and worse housing markets.
https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1218#nav-mobi...
I like Dave and his numbers, but do not like the use of best and worst. Highest and lowest appreciating is more descriptive. Typically best sellers market is poor buyers market and vice versa.
Spoiler alert Florida is projected to have the most cities with low or negative appreciation. I have been following the Emerald Coast market for 3 years. It is down significantly in that span.
Next state with a lot of cities with low or negative appreciation forecast is Texas. Austin is the poster child.
Only 2 cities in lowest appreciation forecast were not in Florida or Texas, Las Vegas and Nashville. I have been to Las Vegas twice in the last 6 months. The decline is visible but nothing compared to GFC.
Here is the reality, if the prices have fallen significantly, is it a good buy opportunity? That depends on how close to bottom the current prices are. I plan to do underwriting on a property in Florida that we may make an offer. It is down a lot and has a private beach access. Beaches are finite, to have exclusive access to a beach is likely to get more desirable as the population continues to increase.
My own take on both phoenix and most of Florida is that they are locations best suited for only part of the year. I cannot tolerate phoenix over 100 consecutive days over 100 degrees of Florida’s heat/humidity at its peak. Maybe I am spoiled with the weather where I live. Besides there being parts of the year that I would choose not to live there they both can be nice. Phoenix has lovely deserts, national parks/monuments, significant sports teams. Florida trade the phoenix desert for beach. I have spent a fair amount of time in both; they both have nice features.
As for best investment, no one knows. I suggest you pick the place you like better and if it does worse investment wise than the other, at least you are living where you most desire.
Good luck
Thank you, Dan H.
I appreciate the insightful advice you provided. I will continue to explore other markets to identify potential opportunities. While Florida and Arizona are not my sole focus, I am determined to find a suitable option and take action on making a purchase.
- 7moArman AhmedPro MemberReal Estate Agent · Columbus Cleveland Dayton, OH · Member since 2024 · 2k+ posts · 916 votes
Hey Gabe, from what I’ve seen, some Midwest markets can be a sweet spot for both cash flow and long-term appreciation. There are duplexes and small multifamily properties that are priced well below market, already cash-flowing, and in neighborhoods with steady demand. A lot of investors I know have had success finding off-market deals or creative financing options there, which really helps with entry cost and scaling a portfolio over time.
- 7moRodney MenendezPro MemberDeveloper · South West Florida · Member since 2020 · 74 posts · 53 votes
Interesting comparison — both markets can work, but from the duplex / build-to-rent side I tend to lean Florida.
Lower land + construction basis in markets like Ocala makes it easier to pencil cash flow earlier, especially when compared to higher entry pricing in Phoenix. We’ve also seen strong workforce housing demand across many Florida growth corridors, which supports long-term duplex rental performance.
Another trend we’re noticing is investors shifting toward ready-to-build duplex projects — where feasibility, plans, and permitting are already underway — as a way to reduce entitlement risk and accelerate project timelines.
We’re actively building duplexes in SWFL and continue to see consistent investor interest in ground-up small multifamily. Always interested in comparing notes with others evaluating duplex markets or build-to-rent strategies.
- 7moJohn TelfordBusiness MemberRealtor · Orlando/Ocala, FL · Member since 2018 · 13 posts · 12 votes
I found myself nodding along enthusiastically as I read @Rodney Menendez's reply. I can't speak about the investor market in Phoenix, but I can tell you I'm dug in deep in Florida and Ocala, specifically. What we're seeing is much the same as Rodney describes. There are so many small communities surrounding Marion County that are primed for huge growth. The Ocala market is one of the fastest-growing areas of Florida right now as it offers that "old-Florida" charm with its rolling hills (compared to the flatter southern parts of the state), heritage oaks, Spanish moss, and horse farms galore, while still providing easy access to beaches (on either coast) as well as to the theme parks of Orlando. The cultural centers of Tampa and Jacksonville are also close by, not to mention the state's flagship University of Florida in Gainesville.
All of that plus investment in the state's infrastructure with new highway connectors relieving congestion and buildout of the Tampa metro area, funneling residents and newcomers into more affordable areas like Citrus County (Marion/Ocala's neighbor to the southwest) mean these traditionally sleepy areas are about to explode in the next few years.
Affordability is greater (for the moment), and my business partners and I are invested heavily in new single-family and multi-family construction. We're building multi-family as fast as we can acquire lots, which offers us the ability to create housing inventory for our rental portfolio at cost, providing substantial built-in equity for us from the get go. Other investors are recognizing the potential of Ocala/Marion and the surrounding counties as well, and we're working with them to build investment properties for their own portfolios.
In addition to being an investor in this market, I'm also a realtor, and we're actively acquiring parcels to fuel our building. If I can be of service with advice or anything you may need @Gabe Allen, just let me know. I'm happy to help. - 7moJorge VazquezBusiness MemberReal Estate Broker · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 684 votes
Hey Gabe, I’m working with a landlord I manage properties for who owns a few places in Ocala and is actually selling one now. From what I’ve seen, tenants are pretty stable and rents are consistent, but appreciation moves slower there. It’s more of a steady, cash flow–friendly market than a fast equity play. I hear Phoenix has historically had stronger appreciation and more price movement, but that usually means higher buy-in and tighter margins. If you’re thinking long term and retiring there someday, it really comes down to which market you’d be more comfortable holding through ups and downs, since both can work depending on whether you lean more toward stability or growth.
Graystone Investment Group4.6268 Reviews - 6moAdrian Lammersdorf-SciollBusiness MemberRealtor · FL · Member since 2020 · 221 posts · 101 votes
You should definitely look into Orlando. Theres tons of duplexes in great neighborhoods that you can buy and fix up, and even make some great cash flow while living free in the Orlando area. I am speaking from experience. I live in a duplex and the other side is an air bnb. It pays my cost of living, and I live free! Air bnb demand is good in most of the markets that have duplexes
Thomas Lynne Realty527 Reviews
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