Determining ARV esimates

Member since 2026 · 17 posts · 15 votes

I'm curious how people estimate ARV. Obviously agents can provide an ARV, but I've noticed some fairly wide discrepancies. I would like to be able to do some of my own math rather than just trust agents who I haven't worked with in the past (and therefore I don't know how accurate their estimates turn out to be). Especially on off-market properties that an agent brings to me, they may be representing the seller too and have an extra incentive to present an ARV on the higher end, and I can't necessarily go and ask another agent to calculate ARV for me when they wouldn't be involved in the deal. Not trying to sound cynical, just trying to do my due diligence. Thanks!

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James JonesPro Member

Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 821 posts · 601 votes

Elliot, your instinct is right — run your own number and treat any agent's ARV as a claim to verify, not a fact. My method is sold comps only. Pull houses that actually sold in the last six months, same neighborhood, same ZIP, similar beds, baths, and square footage. Ignore list prices and ignore Zillow — neither one ever bought a house. Then adjust for condition: a comp that sold fully renovated is your ceiling, and you back out the rehab difference between that house and yours. When the sold comps cluster, that cluster is your ARV. On my Memphis BRRRR deals that lands between $180K and $265K. If only one high comp supports the number, the number is wrong.

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James JonesPro Member
Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 821 posts · 601 votes
3d
Elliot, your instinct is right — run your own number and treat any agent's ARV as a claim to verify, not a fact. My method is sold comps only. Pull houses that actually sold in the last six months, same neighborhood, same ZIP, similar beds, baths, and square footage. Ignore list prices and ignore Zillow — neither one ever bought a house. Then adjust for condition: a comp that sold fully renovated is your ceiling, and you back out the rehab difference between that house and yours. When the sold comps cluster, that cluster is your ARV. On my Memphis BRRRR deals that lands between $180K and $265K. If only one high comp supports the number, the number is wrong.
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Ametria Chaney
Realtor · Memphis, Shelby County · Member since 2026 · 85 posts · 26 votes
3d
Elliot, you're asking exactly the right question — ARV is where most new investors get hurt. As an agent, here's how I'd build it: sold comps only, last 3-6 months, same neighborhood or subdivision, similar bed/bath count and square footage (within about 20%). Then adjust for condition honestly — a fully renovated comp is your ceiling, and you subtract the cost difference between that finish level and yours. Ignore list prices and online estimates; neither has ever closed a deal. The best move is asking an investor-friendly agent for a CMA on the property as if it were renovated — it costs you nothing and puts a professional's comp selection behind your number. When your sold comps cluster tightly, you've got your ARV. If one high outlier is carrying the number, be skeptical. Are you analyzing a specific property right now?
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Caleb Brown
Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
3d
Can you have a buyer agent that you rely on? In my state solds are hidden on Zillow. You can use Propstream to analyze comps nearby. Definitely verify comps and ask for their proof(they should be able to provide a link with comps).
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Joe VilleneuvePro Member
Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
3d
The reason you see wide numbers is because the seller or buyer's agent wants to make the PV work best for their goals. The seller's agent will pull the best properties to inflate the value, and the buyer's agent will do the opposite.
It's not that hard to get a true ARV. Do as follows:
1) Start by taking the actual sq ftg of the property and calculate a SF range that is about 10% higher and 10% lower the subject property. Don't use any properties outside of this range, even if that property is next door.
2) Take a combination of the most recent sales and closest sold (not listed) properties to the subject property.
3) The average will be your ARV.
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Jimmy Samaha
Staten Island, NY · Member since 2013 · 68 posts · 20 votes
3d
James nailed the basics. A few things that tightened mine up:
- Use price per sq ft only within a tight band. Same style, ±20% size, same side of any big road or school line.
- Look at days on market and sale-to-list on the comps. A renovated comp that sat 90 days and took a cut is your ceiling, not your target.
- Check the comp's listing photos/history (Zillow/Redfin keep old photos). "Renovated" can mean full gut or just paint.
- Pull 3 to 5 and throw out the high one. If the agent's number only works with the high one, that tells you something.
And you can ask an agent who isn't on the deal for a CMA. Most will do it, especially if you're upfront that you buy regularly.
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Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 525 posts · 221 votes
3d
@Elliot W. That's not cynical—it's good due diligence. ARV is an opinion, so aim for a defensible range rather than one exact number.
Start with three to six recently sold, renovated homes in the same area that closely match the property’s size, condition, age, bed and bath count, and key features. Use price per square foot as a reference, but adjust for meaningful differences instead of relying on it alone.
Build conservative, likely, and optimistic estimates, then underwrite using the conservative end. Compare your comps with the agent's and ask them to explain any major differences. If the deal only works at the highest ARV, the margin is probably too thin.
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Matthew MorrowBusiness Member
Investor · PA - NY - NJ · Member since 2019 · 707 posts · 250 votes
2d
@Elliot W. doing your own math is the right instinct. Speaking as an agent, a good one should show you the sold comps behind the number, not just the number. If they can't, that tells you something. I lean on the lower end of what's actually closed nearby recently, and I don't assume the finishes get full credit, because appraisers often don't give it. If the deal only works at the high ARV, it doesn't work. Just my experience, but hopefully it gives you something to consider.
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Mark Schilling
Realtor · Lavallette, NJ · Member since 2026 · 3 posts · 2 votes
2d
You're not going to get the same ARV from every agent. They may focus on different aspects of the property or choose different comparable sales.
If you only have one agent’s number, I’d still want to know exactly how they got there. What sales did they use? How close were those properties? How recent were the sales? Were they actually similar in size, layout, condition and location to what this property should look like after the work is done?
If one comp is doing most of the work to support a high ARV, I'd be careful with that. I'd rather use a number I can explain from the comparable sales than just accept the highest estimate I'm given.
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James Loffredo
Lender · Dallas, TX · Member since 2024 · 10 posts · 3 votes
2d
Elliot, good instinct. Two things from the lending side.
First, throw out the highest comp, every time, and ask your agent for the most recent sales, not the best ones. An appraiser is going to look at closed sales within the last six months, start about a mile out, and only widen to two, three, then five miles if there aren’t enough. Build your number the same way.
Second, the only ARV that counts is the one the lender's appraiser signs. A fix and flip lender caps the loan around 70 to 75% of that number and releases rehab draws against it. If your ARV is higher than the appraiser's, the gap comes out of your cash to close, not the lender's.
Practical move: pull three comps yourself, have your agent pull three, and compare which set looks the most accurate. A good agent is a real partner on this and will show you the sales behind the number, not just the number.
Disclosure, I run a lender in Dallas.
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Mike Klarman
Specialist · NJ · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 656 votes
1d
You have to look at the houses you are using as comps. If you have a 4/2 house at 2k sqft then is every 4/2 house that's around 2k sqft a comp?

Yes and no.

Logically a house within a half mile of the same size and room count is a comp, but you have to compare finishes, schools, parking, walkability, transportation. There's so much more that goes into it to find real comps.

I always say be prepared to take 10% - 15% off of whatever an agent says they can get. Because at the end of the day they are in sales. They'll promise top dollar and provide proof on why and then they'll come and start asking for price reductions because the listing is stale. You have to move within 60 days or else now you're in a slush pile of stale properties waiting to sell, and you will be paying your bridge note every month waiting. You'll get so frustrated that you'll tell the agent you just want out. He gets to lower it to a sellable range and he/she still makes a decent commission and the price sold the property, they didn't.

I always say, if your numbers still work after shaving 10% off the ARV then that's a decent sign there may be a deal.
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Aaron Zucker
Realtor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 58 posts · 17 votes
1d
Elliot — the mechanics are well covered above (sold comps only, drop the high one, work in ranges). Two things I'd add from running comps for buyers in NY every week:
Draw your comp boundaries by school district and municipality first, then by distance. Here, two nearly identical houses a few blocks apart can have a real value gap if one sits in a stronger school district or on the other side of a village line — different district, different tax bill, different buyer pool. An agent pulling comps by radius alone blends all of that together and hands you a number that's too high. It's also the quickest tell that an agent bringing you deals doesn't actually work that micro-market.
Second, a gut-check question for any ARV someone hands you: "If I had to list this house in 90 days, what would you price it at?" The answer is usually lower — and more honest — than the ARV on a deal sheet, because now it's a price they'd have to defend to the actual market. If the deal only works at the ARV and falls apart at the 90-day price, the margin was never really there.
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- Elliot W.Pro Member
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  Member since 2026 · 17 posts · 15 votes
  1d
  Thank you, that is a helpful way to think about it!
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