When Low Purchase price doesn't make a great Investment option

When Low Purchase price doesn't make a great Investment option

Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes

In the today's real estate markets, investors are finding an abundance of distressed inventory and in some cases for prices that are 10% of the "replacement" cost of the property.

After quickly glancing at the rents on Craigslist you might be tempted to jump off your chair and go grab a handful of these $10,000 priced 3 Bedroom Single Family houses and setup your passive cash flow machine and roll in the dough. Well, not so fast!

There are several markets in the US that exhibit such behavior, let's pick for example South Chicago where the local economy is plummeting and rising crime rates are pushing small cities into bankruptcy depressing the real estate prices even further. So you set eyes on a great foreclosure listed at $25,000 a quick grab and go 3 Bedroom SFH 1000 sqft in Harvey, IL. You quickly check the rents in the area and see that you can fetch easily $1000-$1200/mo, WOW what a Steal you might think. I should buy the whole block!

Well, it turns out that there are several issues that make this deal go awry extremely fast. First rule of thumb for the novice real estate investor who is looking to build a passive revenue flow is to never buy properties in an area you don't want to live in yourself, no matter what. So you start wondering, ok, so what's the neighborhood like in there? One option, get in your car and do a drive by, see what it looks like or save yourself the time and grab a rent & neighborhood report from [REMOVED]. Let's walk though a real case scenario:

The following property is listed on Zillow for sale:

You also notice the rentals listed across the street for $1k to $1.4k and your heart starts jumping. What you don't know yet, is far worse. Let's take this rental and analyze it:

You examine the estimated rent section and notice the estimated rent to be about what you thought or $1,180/mo. Also the comparables sustain the price as well. First thing that you should be worried is the Renter density of 42% as well as the Vacancy rate of 18%. You want the Renter density to be low in the 25% range and also a vacancy rate under 10%. The two things you observe already spell trouble meaning you might have a long time to fill up that vacancy. Let's move on and assess the trends in the area, you observe from the chart that the rent is pretty much stable for the past 12 months, a good sign definitely.

Next you take a look at "Who lives on the block", another major piece of the puzzle:

While we're not going to make any comments, you will notice there is a strong correlation between Household income and Highest education attained and also you will use this information to correlate the Crime rate available in the next 2 widgets in the report:

You notice an almost four times than nation average in the crime rate, including 10 murders and 9 rapes alone in the past 12 months and also more than double the amount Burglary and Thefts. That can't be good for a city with a population of about 25,000 you think, I don't want to have my property vandalized while it's on the market awaiting for a tenant.

With that in mind you move on to evaluate the quality of the nearby schools, which has a high correlation in your decision:

You definitely notice the school quality is at the bottom of the barrel. This again can't be good.

Putting together all you have learned in last 5 minutes you might decide that even though the price is amazing and you will make a Rent-to-Price rate north of 5%, you will most likely have troubles keeping the property rented even even worse collect rents and securing your property against burglary while vacant.

I hope this helped you putting a line in your due diligence todo list!

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Crystal SmithPro Member
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Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
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Originally posted by @Bogdan Cirlig:

Well, it turns out that there are several issues that make this deal go awry extremely fast. First rule of thumb for the novice real estate investor who is looking to build a passive revenue flow is to never buy properties in an area you don't want to live in yourself, no matter what. 

Totally disagree w/ this advice.  Let the numbers do the talking on whether you invest in a deal or not, not the emotions of whether you would want to live there yourself.  

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Real Estate Consultant · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 720 posts · 439 votes
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    @Bogdan Cirlig great post. As a Real Estate Broker I can't do this research for my clients, I can just bring up what the buyers should look at when they ask about neighborhoods.

    Now, any new investor can make good decisions based on this type of  information!

  • Investor · Mooreville, NC · Member since 2008 · 139 posts · 58 votes
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    That's one way of doing it.

  • Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
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    @Bogdan Cirlig 

    Great post.

    I do have many rentals that are low income & have high rental yield to low purchase price. (not as extreme as those mentioned but similar numbers to those mentioned.) 

    It's very important to understand that you must take the good with the bad.

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
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    Originally posted by @James Wise:

    @Bogdan Cirlig 

    Great post.

    I do have many rentals that are low income & have high rental yield to low purchase price. (not as extreme as those mentioned but similar numbers to those mentioned.) 

    It's very important to understand that you must take the good with the bad.

    Yes. The case I posted (it happens I have first hand experience investing in that area) is so extreme that Sect 8 tenants do NOT want to live in there lol. Sad truth. On paper if you check Cook County Sect 8 rents for 3 bdr it appears they are so juicy however talking to realtors local to that area they tell me Sect 8 tenants do not rush to rent in that particular area. Also if you check the foreclosure rate on that block omg, everyone is dumping properties there hence the very distressed price. The replacement cost (as per Insurance) for that particular property is around $150k hah... you can imagine how bad it is if landlords are dumping them at $25k a pop. You can see similar trends in Oakland, Detroit and some other markets.

  • Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 30k+ posts · 20k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Bogdan Cirlig:
    Originally posted by @James Wise:

    @Bogdan Cirlig 

    Great post.

    I do have many rentals that are low income & have high rental yield to low purchase price. (not as extreme as those mentioned but similar numbers to those mentioned.) 

    It's very important to understand that you must take the good with the bad.

    Yes. The case I posted (it happens I have first hand experience investing in that area) is so extreme that Sect 8 tenants do NOT want to live in there lol. Sad truth. On paper if you check Cook County Sect 8 rents for 3 bdr it appears they are so juicy however talking to realtors local to that area they tell me Sect 8 tenants do not rush to rent in that particular area. Also if you check the foreclosure rate on that block omg, everyone is dumping properties there hence the very distressed price. The replacement cost (as per Insurance) for that particular property is around $150k hah... you can imagine how bad it is if landlords are dumping them at $25k a pop. You can see similar trends in Oakland, Detroit and some other markets.

    Yes im in Cleveland so we have some of the lowest prices in the country.

    There are VERY bad parts of the city where occupied houses are selling for 10-20k.

    Empty houses are selling for $500-$5,000.

    We won't work dangerous areas. Generally we are seeing homes around 35-65k that will rent for 650-1000.

    The lower end range come with problems as well but I don't think it's too bad. They still make money. You have to take the good with the bad.

    Couple years ago it was cheaper when there we were tripping over REO's then.

  • Crystal SmithPro Member
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    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
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    Originally posted by @Bogdan Cirlig:

    Well, it turns out that there are several issues that make this deal go awry extremely fast. First rule of thumb for the novice real estate investor who is looking to build a passive revenue flow is to never buy properties in an area you don't want to live in yourself, no matter what. 

    Totally disagree w/ this advice.  Let the numbers do the talking on whether you invest in a deal or not, not the emotions of whether you would want to live there yourself.  

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
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    Originally posted by @Lumi Ispas:

    @Bogdan Cirlig great post. As a Real Estate Broker I can't do this research for my clients, I can just bring up what the buyers should look at when they ask about neighborhoods.

    Now, any new investor can make good decisions based on this type of  information!

    Can you explain why you can't do this research (excepting one useless graph on the racial component) for your clients? I though the purpose of using a broker was that they had access to all kinds of information to allow clients to make informed decisions. Presenting DATA is not mandatory but per Realtor ethics 10-1 and 10-2 you should be providing pertinent (non-discriminatory) information.

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
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    Originally posted by @Crystal Smith:
    Originally posted by @Bogdan Cirlig:

    Well, it turns out that there are several issues that make this deal go awry extremely fast. First rule of thumb for the novice real estate investor who is looking to build a passive revenue flow is to never buy properties in an area you don't want to live in yourself, no matter what. 

    Totally disagree w/ this advice.  Let the numbers do the talking on whether you invest in a deal or not, not the emotions of whether you would want to live there yourself.  

    Crystal I appreciate the feedback. There's a subtle nuance in that advice, it's not about emotions, it's about knowing the rules of the street. There are very successful landlords who know how to collect in low income neighborhoods, because they live there, it's their comfort zone. Things such as 5 day notice don't really work there, tenants know precisely how to avoid being served and also know how to vacate the property 1 day before court date to avoid eviction per-se. When starting out (which is the point of why this article is posted in this forum, it's best to look for things in your own area of comfort. I have yet to see a white collar novice investor being able to handle low income properties (which can be very profitable if you know what you're doing).

  • Real Estate Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 19 posts · 5 votes
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    Great info and read... Definitely things to think about when looking to invest in new areas!

  • Investor · Plano, TX · Member since 2014 · 145 posts · 102 votes
    11y

    sooo..  What I'm hearing you say is: 

    Invest all your money and buy 20+ properties in a culdesac neighborhood. Toss in a giant 8 foot fence - 6ft chainlink with 2 ft of Concertina-Wire (find a military surplus store to get this)..Plant tall bushes to give the facade of a beautiful neighborhood, and get a variance to put a gate across the road. 

    Hire a local thug who can help you buy off the local gangs so the drug wars can be waged outside your community, but not inside.

    Cheapest gated community ever! I'm In!

  • Real Estate Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 229 posts · 171 votes
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    I thought this post was going a different direction -- i.e., must consider final cost of rehab costs on top of low acquisition costs.

    @Bogdan Cirlig I'm curious as to what areas pass this test that you mentioned in as failed in South Chicago with 1.2k/mo for 25k investment, but also having relatively low crime, high education, and low vacancy.  It has been my experience that these risks are tied to the high cash flow, so I'd love to get some new direction.

  • Investor · Bensenville, IL · Member since 2014 · 25 posts · 9 votes
    11y
    Dooreuhn Cee Bogdan Cirlig What would you consider would be the most important stat to look at when considering buy and hold areas for investment?
  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
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    Originally posted by @Rafael Velasco:

    Dooreuhn Cee Bogdan Cirlig What would you consider would be the most important stat to look at when considering buy and hold areas for investment?

     Hard to make it a "one thing" but it boils down to: Can you collect the rent in a consistent manner with virtually 0 vacancy and that rent allows your property to cashflow for the next 10 years at least? To answer that it's a lot of things to "dot and cross". If you can answer yes to it, next thing is to start leveraging your cash position to rinse and repeat and get more of those.

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Dooreuhn Cee:

    I thought this post was going a different direction -- i.e., must consider final cost of rehab costs on top of low acquisition costs.

    @Bogdan Cirlig I'm curious as to what areas pass this test that you mentioned in as failed in South Chicago with 1.2k/mo for 25k investment, but also having relatively low crime, high education, and low vacancy.  It has been my experience that these risks are tied to the high cash flow, so I'd love to get some new direction.

    Actually I own such properties in that area (yup, bad experience) and this is what happened. When i bought them, circa 10 years ago, the neighborhood was low income but the crime was not outrageous. My math was simple: 3 BDR SFH 1000 sqft selling at $80k renting to Sect 8 at $1250... wow wow.. I grabbed a handful and I rented them to sect 8 and I lived happily ever after until circa 2009 :). So these areas yes passed the initial test, I knew it was low income, blue collar but not 90% unemployed as it is right now.

    Today's situation in all South Chicago is very very different. Crime skyrocketed and this is the single handed driving factor that pushed even the safe and sound Sect 8 renters out of the area leaving you completely naked with 1+ year vacancy. My RE Agents in Chicago tell me same story, you'd be happy to get a tenant with FICO of 500 and 10 open collections lol. So like many others I chose to board them up and store them for later.

    Demographics didn't change, but the local economy changed dramatically causing lots of people to lose jobs and be pushed into crime.

    To answer to your question, yes, there's a fine line between the same financial numbers and in my personal experience it's the crime alone that will push a nice Sect 8 tenant out of a violent area. My top question I ask when I look at new areas to pick up for investing is: Can I keep it rented for next 10 years with virtually 0 vacancy? It's a lot of numbers that go behind that to answer it.

  • Investor · Singapore · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
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    good points but I disagree with the fact that one should only invest in a place they want to live. If that were true, my investment universe would be 1M plus homes in a+++ neighborhoods. OtOH. The Wild West ghetto is is not for me either.. There are plenty of good working class neighorhoods with high rental ratios that still generate decent returns, you do have to be careful and your example is a good one to avoid 

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
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    @Bogdan Cirlig 

      if you used those metrics you just used for that part of IL.. in any of the mid west major metro areas and north east... were you had 25 to 40k homes renting for 900 to 1200 a month your graphs and such that you posted would look the exactly same.. nothing special about this area of IL.. it is the asset class and price point that create the demographic make up ...And absolutely nothing astonishing about your reports.. at least to any one who cares to delve into the areas..

    But your correct for out of area investors these areas a highly risky .. But for those that live there and work it they can be productive and fruitful.

    And I don't think you can just broad brush "South Chicago" its a huge area and not all of it has 90% unemployment etc.  Although some of the other items on your graphs are probably the same..

    Bottom line for anyone who ask's me I do not believe low end out of state rentals are at all appropriate investments for investors that are:

    1. Starting out... or have been priced out of CA and want to give these a run because the numbers look so good.

    2. Out of country for the same reasons.

    These properties are the province of local investors who know the areas and work these as a full time gig.

  • Crystal SmithPro Member
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    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
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  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
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    @Bogdan Cirlig - Bingo - you understand RE better than 99.9% of people on BP.

    @Jay Hinrichs - precisely. The thing I've been drilling into people both on the blog and the forums, is that as a rule in the Mid-West there's very little that differentiates a $10,000 SFR for $35,000 SFR - period. I don't care if you are in Indi, Toledo, Chicago, Dayton, Cleveland, Cinci, Columbus, Detroit, Louisville, etc Same pigs with the same lipstick that only idiots get caught-up in...

    This is blunt, Jay, but true :)

  • Clay SmithBusiness Member
    Investor · Louisville, KY · Member since 2013 · 419 posts · 244 votes
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    @Jay Hinrichs

    Jay, I live in these markets and buy the 40 - 70k sfr. They rent for 800-1000.  They average 10-20k rehab (using subcontractors and general labor). Would out of state investors be interested in these properties? I bought 10 this year. FOR EXAMPLE: If a property appraises at 100k and rents for 1000; what would investors pay for turn key rentals with properly screened tenants in place and a recent appraisel?

    LREI Property Management LLC4.6453 Reviews
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
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    @Clay Smith   I think you can find out what investors will pay by just popping on any of the TK companies websites and checking out rent to price ratios... 1% is a good number.

    some do a little better... 2% from turn key in my mind will be C,D class and risk of failure may out weight the benefits of buying at that price point.

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
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    Originally posted by @Crystal Smith:

     All south of I-294 to Chicago Heights. The best probably is to quote one of the lenders I used to work with: "We do not currently give mortgages to properties located South of Chicago to Northwest Indiana". I have checked this with other Realtors who live in those parts and the rule is generally true nowadays regarding lenders. :(

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
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    @Bogdan Cirlig Bodgan... this is just incorrect information.. Lenders cannot red line like that .. not if they are state and or federally chartered.. a HML can... there is a little thing called the CRA ( community reinvestment Act) the banks if they are located in that footprint must lend in the community.. Its a fine line I know but that is the reality.

    I am not that familiar with South Chicago.. but I have done some investing there just south of downtown by the big university... the 50 to 70 streets.. and my properties were taken out by conventional lenders doing long term fixed financing.  

    However again I agree with your general premise of the 25k house renting for over 1000 will probably be a dicey long term investment

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    @Bogdan Cirlig Bodgan... this is just incorrect information.. Lenders cannot red line like that .. not if they are state and or federally chartered.. a HML can... there is a little thing called the CRA ( community reinvestment Act) the banks if they are located in that footprint must lend in the community.. Its a fine line I know but that is the reality.

    I am not that familiar with South Chicago.. but I have done some investing there just south of downtown by the big university... the 50 to 70 streets.. and my properties were taken out by conventional lenders doing long term fixed financing.  

    However again I agree with your general premise of the 25k house renting for over 1000 will probably be a dicey long term investment

    Hah, yes that's the theory.. practice is different. I am very very hands on that area. I see properties completely abandoned all over the place, or boarded up and spray paint written out "nothing to loot, no floors no copper". If you look on zillow you will see every other house is in foreclosure there, banks hold onto so much REO that they will be happy to give it to you if you pay taxes and stuff. The amount of "zombie" houses in there is staggering. I'm not smoking here, I have first hand info... not "hypothetically speaking".

  • Real Estate Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2014 · 229 posts · 171 votes
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    @Rafael Velasco the one thing I look for in buy and hold is the intersection between easy landlording and cash flow (sneaky way to include a bunch of factors :) ).  More seriously, @Bogdan Cirlig has a good point on red flags, but as you increase your cash flow, IMO you agree to take on more of these red flags.  There is  happy medium in carefully selected C class areas.  My criteria for Chicago is areas without many vacant lots, multi-units, or board ups for buy and holds that have 2% and 3% cash flows.

    @Bogdan Cirlig are you referring to southside of Chicago or to south suburbs?  

  • Real Estate Investor · Los Gatos, CA · Member since 2014 · 226 posts · 89 votes
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    Originally posted by @Dooreuhn Cee:

    @Rafael Velasco the one thing I look for in buy and hold is the intersection between easy landlording and cash flow (sneaky way to include a bunch of factors :) ).  More seriously, @Bogdan Cirlig has a good point on red flags, but as you increase your cash flow, IMO you agree to take on more of these red flags.  There is  happy medium in carefully selected C class areas.  My criteria for Chicago is areas without many vacant lots, multi-units, or board ups for buy and holds that have 2% and 3% cash flows.

    @Bogdan Cirlig are you referring to southside of Chicago or to south suburbs?  

     All south of I-294 to Chicago Heights

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