Not Believing BP's Rental Calculator

Not Believing BP's Rental Calculator

Investor · Medford, MA · Member since 2017 · 56 posts · 27 votes

So I am getting pretty frustrated here. Every property of the 20-30 I have looked at has been bad deals.

For example check out MLS number: 72154014. It's a property I would be interested in buying, but at the price it's listed at, there is no way. Even if I lower the price 20k it still will be a negative cash flow each month.

I put 1500 for closing costs, 5% interest.  5% vacancy, 5% repairs and maintenance, 5% capex and 8% property managment fee.

I get that @Brandon Turner in his podcasts says, "find the price that makes it work" but the Boston market is very hot, and while this is Nashua NH, many many people buy in NH and commute to Boston area jobs every day.  People aren't lowering their prices 20,30 or 40k.  They are getting offers over asking price and bidding wars occur.  Now, this might not be happening in Southern NH and Northern MA, but inside of I-495 it's happening all the time.

So am I doing something wrong here?  Are my expense numbers correct, too low, or not high enough?

Seems like I am spinning my wheels with this ****.

What makes it even more frustrating is I have a mentor who is claiming some of these properties are home runs (guy owns 300 doors and knows what he is talking about) but he does quick numbers like Cap rates, Gross Income Multiplier, and quick 35% "extremely high" overhead before P&I.  He's saying he'll go in on the deal to prove to me it's a good deal, but yet the BP calculator is saying the exact opposite of what a guy who makes a **** ton of money per month is saying.  So, as you can tell I am very frustrated and starting not to believe in this BP calculator.  

Someone show me the error of my ways.

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Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
9y
The easiest way I've found to quickly determine if a property makes sense is to not pay more than 100x it's monthly rent. Brings in $2,600/month? I'll pay max 260k But that 100x monthly is if I like the property and location. If the property needs work or is a bad area I adjust. For example I just bought a property 6-7 miles from my "location I like" but paid $6m for $120k/month of rent roll.
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  • Real Estate Agent · Garden City, NY · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Ryan M.

    Where did you get the $1,500 for closing costs? Is that a typo?

  • Lender · Haverhill, MA · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 21 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Becky C.:

    Ryan, I'm having the same problem with multi's in the Haverhill area and generally around MA and NH. The #s make you want to ignore planning for expensive and short cut the numbers to make the seem favorable. I've had an agent pushing me in that direction (Haverhill multis) for a while, but I haven't found a deal that makes sense, despite his claims of how great it is. The #s might seem good until you have to replace a water heater, a roof or repair leaks from ice dams (ahhh winter is coming). Once you take a few thousand dollar hit to your monthly cash flow you'll wipe it out.

    I'm trying to think more creatively, like units I can get for cheaper because they're two beds, turn them into three maybe... units that are unlivable and need an upfront influx of cash to upgrade and get higher paying tenants in (though that cash counts against profits too). Frankly I'm still inclined to take the leap on the right place and try to minimize expenses, but I'm doing a lot of analysis still before deciding that as well as looking at other ways to spend my money. Don't really want to do out of state, so would my money go to better use in a flip, into commercial, etc.? Tough in our area with the market at such a high right now and risk of overpaying for stuff.

    the final thing i keep hearing on the podcasts is make low ball offers - can't hurt especially if somethings been sitting on the market for a few months. if its gone beyond 1 or 2 months they'll probably at least talk to you. a few of the big time podcast folks say if you're not embarrassed of your offer its probably too high, and we all know the old saying - you miss 100% of the shots you don't take ;)

     Becky,

    Sounds like your worried about items that you can get fixed through Mass Saves. They give you bigger discounts as a landlord than for a primary residence, tax rebates, and you can finance everything 0 down 0 interest for 7 years. So technically it doesn't come out of your pocket, your tenant pays for it and you make a little less profit until your next rental increase. Not to get too nerdy on it, but its also a tax deduction, so you get it financed, your tenant pays for it, and you owe less in taxes, so replacing items could increase your net income/revenue. Here's something else to think about... things need to be fixed, repaired, replaced at some point no matter where you are. So you can get it out of the way have one less thing to worry about, and new items add value and might even get you closer to your next cashout refi, if you do that strategy.

    Always with my best,

    Christopher Richardson

  • Investor · Newton, MA · Member since 2016 · 25 posts · 4 votes
    9y

    I am closing on two properties this week in Boston.  While I own real estate in other areas this is my first real estate purchase in Boston.  i am so far finding that my expenses are coming in lower than what I underwrote.  I do think at least for my properties that expenses will only land up being 25-35% of my revenue. But each property is different. 

      In terms of the 1% rule, why are following it? Is it that you think that an investment at below that percentage is not a good investment? I personally don't really agree with that.  I think that over say the next 20 years Boston will appreciate significantly.  Boston is now fully built out (i.e. no empty land between cities the way there used to be) and is the center of what is going to one day be a mega industry (biotechnology, bioinformatics etc.) These are fields that today are only "on the runway" and Boston real estate will be a major beneficiary when they "take off".  I like Boston therefore as a market, and simply try to find deals that I think are the better ones within Boston. 

  • Deland, FL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Christopher Richardson:
    Originally posted by @Ryan M.:

    BTW listened to your podcast. Side bar, but how the hell did you get banks to give you an unsecured LOC??

    What do you usually put in (percentage wise) for expenses on BP calc?  40% total (meaning 10% each?) 

    Ryan,

    We have unsecured LOC's they are easy to obtain if you have good credit. It's a joke how easy it is to get credit right now as that is the number one source of income for banks.

    Always with my best,

    Christopher Richardson

    Are you able to loan to people living in FL?

    If so please contact me. 

    Thank you

  • Lender · Tustin, CA · Member since 2016 · 24 posts · 10 votes
    7y

    Is the 1% rule applied to Gross Monthly Income or Monthly Net Income

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