I am curious on what BP members think the impact that growth in real estate investing, wholesaling, and direct-buy practices is having on the old agency-model of buying/selling? Has anyone come across any articles or research on the subject?
I heard, about a year ago, that 38% of all residential real estate transactions occur without involving an agent. This is a big number but I have been unable to find any supporting information.
Of course, there are some areas of the country that still operate like it is 1990 and agents/brokerages are just terrible. I was in one market where NO agency would accept any paperwork that was not originated on the state Association of Realtors forms/documents. Not even LOI and other docs we, as investors, use and rely on. Based on observed changes, are these folks dinosaurs destined for near-term extinction or will there always be a big part of the RE industry operating this way?
Thoughts? Empirical evidence of information? Opinions?
92% of transactions are run through agents. 8% roughly do not involve agents, and half of those are family to family sales.
If no agency would accept your paper work, maybe the problem then was on your end and not on the 100% of people who were in agreement to not take your paper work.
I have been hearing this stuff for decades. I just laugh every time I hear it again. My commercial real estate business grows,and grows, and grows every year.
I can see some investors buying small properties on the residential side trying to do it all themselves but that is just a small fraction of the market.
In my world people want help. Once they make a certain amount of money they have experts do things for them. I have developer friends and other investors even if they are a broker/agent have another company list and sell for them because they have other things they want to do.
Some people can pinch pennies by stepping over dollars or they can have an ego superiority type complex. Experienced people even if they could do something on a good level get out of the way and let others who are better than them at something do it. Some people can be afraid to put others that are way better than them into a position of helping them because it is the ego complex rearing it's head.
Those who are strong encourage to surround themselves with bright and innovative people. I have learned no matter how smart I am or how much I study I do not have every single great idea out there.
Brokers and agents will be around for a very long time. People feel comfort in emotions and relationships. They want trust. My typical first time commercial retail buyer is a doctor, or someone who sold a business, high level executive, or moving out of a more intensive asset to own and manage. They are millionaires to multi-millionaires and for putting down that kind of money they want someone with a high level of expertise.
Those generic forms are not well used state by state. Nuances are there which if you use a standard cheap form it tends to have holes you can drive a hummer through because it is not state specific. Someone should do a search on BP and there are others posts talking many years ago that brokers and agents would by bye,bye saying the same stuff. Look at today it didn't happen! LOL
I will come back to this post 10 years from now and see where we are at then............. : )
@Steve Vaughan Actually I think Auction.com has been somewhat of a disruptor . as they have taken over a lot of bank OREO stuff that would have gone to traditional agents. and they are now even crying sales at the court house steps.. but what I like about them and believe me I don't like to have to use all this on line stuff to purchase etc.. you know me.. but you have to have a real deposit to bid then you have to have a REAL POF ( although there are probably fakes out there) you make an offer in a LLC name or your name and YOU CANNOT change vesting so you HAVE to close in that name and you need usually 3 to 10k NON refundable EM... now that right there being that you need 3 to 5k minimum to bid and up to 10k or more to go into contract in real money.. is a great thing for guys like us.. and it keeps the no money wholesalers from daisy chaining these assets.. I like that part.
now as I said a little frustrating but if we call this disruptors they defiantly changed the landscape and forced someone like me who is use to making the rules into bending to their rules. LOL if that all makes sense.
Auction com definitely disrupted the REO listing niche of traditional brokers. Not so much noticed in good times with small % of overall, but at the ready if dark days return.
I like how the auction folks force the buyers to perform with skin in and no assignments. If Zillow can 'qualify' the cash buyers in the wild west that wholesaling is, the medium on up condition as is sales and sellers will have a safer place to turn. Dilapated blight houses with sellers with no knowledge or nternet will still need a mailer though.
Lots of good comments and insight here from all.
Thank you!
@Steve Vaughan not sure what Zillow is up to have not looked at it.. but I got tired of is wholesaling legal or not as it taught and done Question and this equitable interest theory.. IE market a property you don't own without being licensed.. Now we know Zillow is just a marketing medium for listing agents so that's all legal. Oregon does not go with the equitable interest theory to them its just a Theory LOL.
but for wholesalers
look at the response I got from the state of Oregon DRE investigator
"
The Agency is well aware that unlicensed “wholesalers” are rampant in our jurisdiction. Addressing the problems is like trying to put out small individual fires in a forest that is burning. The Agency’s investigations are complaint driven, so we rely heavily on the public, and our licensees to bring these individuals to our attention"
This was a Wednesday conversation I went on to ask about transactional funding IE coming into escrow for one day.. she said in the states Eyes that is not legal either .. because the B person still had to market a property they did not own.. and it was prima facia evidence of two deeds in one day FLIPPING.. they were really against that one.. So I would think Zillow being a huge corporation would be quite the target for the states that are starting to enforce the selling real estate without a license laws. I can see some one at the state making their bones on taking someone like Zillow down LOL..
I can also see the the real estate brokerage community really getting on fired up over this if they know they have the backs of the DRE to actually enforce the laws.. So bottom Line like we say there are disruptors the next one will be those that want flip houses and are not licensed are going to have to figure out a way to get on title BEFORE they market them..
I have one Oregon partner that I fund his stuff he already got nailed by the state and that's why he uses us.. we get into title then resell .. My wife list them after I buy them.. LOL all legal.
and the bigger wholesalers I know in this market are licensed.. same with FLA... but that does not keep those that sell how to wholesale to the mass's too much money in teaching it regardless if its legal or not.
I mean you need a licensed to be a GC right.. you need a license to drive you need a license to practive medicine you need a license to fly you need a license to sell real estate you don't own other wise why have a real estate division at all..???
were I see the distrupter really is the buyers will search on line and do there own search's first before finally calling the agent to get in the house.. Or write the contract..
This is largely how my business operates already. My clients find the properties online, narrow it down to like 10. They go to the open houses, narrow it down to 3 or 4. I then take them to the property to see it again, I tell them the pluses and minuses of the property, they decide which one they want and we make an offer. Particularly millenials. They only want to be face to face and in the property with you once they already have a good idea they want the place.
Some of the older agents in my office have no idea how I can handle 20 to 30 buy sides without running myself ragged....well it is because Im only showing properties 1 to 2 days before my clients are deciding what they want to buy.
I agree that there will be certain agents that will hurt as technology advances but I believe agents that truly bring value to their clients won't go anywhere. Now I do believe that the selling side is quicker to be effected than the buying side. Both sides, however, have reasons to still need an agent at least for the foreseeable future.
Buyers side: Here in Galveston, Tx, most of the people I sell properties to don't live here. They are either second homes, moving from out of town, or primarily, as it's what is specialize in, investment properties.
There are too many details that can't be known by the average person and won't be included in a computer based algorithm. In our city, 80% is a basic grid structure. This results in times that Ave O and Ave P are gorgeous but Ave O 1/2 (yes we have half streets) isn't. Knowing which areas to focus on is just a small factor but there are many local issues that are unknown to most. Even when dealing with out of town agents, we run into the issues of buyer's not being aware that any financed property needs liability, flood, and windstorm insurance. I've had deals fall apart when a buyer learns this half way through and their monthly payments jump. Knowing local flood plains, city ordinances, future developments, market patterns, and countless other things is a mass amount of information to expect someone to research and digest when looking for property.
Even with investors, the demographic that you claim is most likely to not need an agent, still want one typically on the buy side. It is no cost out of pocket for them and allows them to leverage the skills of the agent for their acquisitions. Time is valuable and why spend time roughing out the 100s of properties when an agents can narrow them down for you to the top 10 for you to run a more thorough analysis. On top of that, as an agent I provide investors with market analysis and comps for both LTR and STR. Yes any investor who knows what they're doing can pull that information up and create an excel sheet with a chart but do you really want to dig through all the sales in an area when you can have it provided to you. For my out of town investors, I also do things like a FaceTime walkthrough and break down of properties. When people are having to search for a property from afar, they can't afford to make a trip in every time something pops on the market. However, I can be there that same day, help run analytics, and have opened negotiations or put it under contract before the trip is even made down.
Sellers side: I believe this side of the transaction is the one more at risk. It comes down to the fact of do you provide enough value to mitigate the cost of listings with you. I provides services to help increase my value here such as Matterport scans, professional photography, 24/7 showing service, and other features but it can sometimes be hard to justify the cost even in my mind. This is definitely the area that the agents who throw up a sign and take photos with their phone are going to suffer. I think one area that is important here is having another party that can truly tell you around what price point to list. Everyone thinks their home is worth more and things like Zestimate (internally screaming) just exacerbate this. One thing that tends to be common in our market is any property that sits on the market for 2-3 months is automatically assumed to be faulty in some way. This leads to loss of momentum and a slew of low ball offers. Seller's who think they can price high and just drop as time continues don't always grasp this and lose out on potential sale.
On the investor side, I've always recommended running numbers with cost of resale through an agent included. It can be a serious factor in the sale of properties. Once again I hit on the point that your time is valuable and having to chase every lead and inquiry down while working full time as an investor or a W-2 job can be consuming. Then due to the free cost on the buyer's side, most of them will have an agent and their commission will become a piece of the negotiation. Do you have time for every showing that doesn't have an agent? Also depending on who is on the other side of the sale, odds of a contract falling through are increased. I've had plenty of buyers who needed some serious hand holding to move a transaction along. Reminders of what they need to do from insurance, financing, title, survey, and elevation certificate. Postponed closings and lost contracts just extend your timeline and holding costs. How many months can you afford to hold a property and how much time could be saved by listing professionally? Your time, holding costs, and market traction should all be taken into account when judging the value of an agent.
It ultimately comes down to having someone experienced to help you and provide value. The average homeowner buys and sells a home once every 7 or so years. The laws, technology, marketplace, and everything else change so much in that time. Experiences and active knowledge are key to the buying and selling of real estate. My engineering professor always told this story:
"A company was having issues with the engine in one of their vessels. They did everything they knew to do to fix it and spent countless hours troubleshooting but to no avail. Finally they broke down and called an engineer. The engineer came out, listened to the sputtering motor for a while, grabbed a hammer off a shelf, and hit the engine casing. Like that the engine sprung to life. The owners were ecstatic! Later they received an invoice for $5,000 for engine repair. They screamed and complained, "All you did was look at it for 15 minutes and hit it with a hammer! We aren't paying this! How is it worth this?". The engineer apologized and rewrote the invoice. It read: Hitting engine with hammer - $5, Having the experience and knowledge to know where to hit - $4995."
@Russell Brazil on our latest subdivision that's exactly how it works my wife or one of her fellow agents holds them open sat sunday.. buyers agents instruct their clients to go look.. if they like it they follow up.. but to be honest my wife usually has to hand hold quite a few of the newer agents.. and helps put them together we are always pleased when we get to work with an experienced agent.. but hey we own the houses so what ever it takes LOL.. Bottom line In 23 sales on that development so far only 1 has represented themselves all others either my wife double ended it or they had their own realtor.
When I got licensed 14 years ago I was told technology would replace agents. I have not seen a single piece of technology that has even come close. Technology has helped agents and consumers with information and streamlined things. But in no way has it replaced a single aspect of my job
@Rick Santasiere good points... I just watch my wifes transactions.. Mainly a listing agent and on the sell side 100% referral.
she listed out 23of our new builds . and every single sale ( 16 out of 23 homes in the last 3 months) is either another agent or she double ends them.. WE have had ONE sophisticated buyer who wanted to represent himself.. but he had a back ground In building and real estate.
She also just closed another rehabber we did in PDX .. closed today and that buyer represented themselves.. it was a 1031 ..
but generally 95% of people at least home buyers for resi purposes still need help.. they are not up to speed.
now I can see a big difference in the investment end.. But even at that you have the investment marketing companies that help buyers.. they are really present here on BP...
and they do a big business I know I see the huds.. LOL..
Roofstock has come into our Turnkey space and I guess is a disruptor we have half a dozen deals closing with them in the next 3 weeks in IN Cleveland FLA they are in my mind somewhat of a game changer. but they are also licensed brokers in each state, or work with a license broker on a referral basis. I really dig what they have done.. frankly.. now lets just see how smooth my sales go then I can report back.
Jay,
Maybe you can provide some insite into this for me.
I checked out Roofstock's site just now after reading your comment. All of their homes in the Cleveland area are incredibily overpirced. As in I'll be shocked if any of them sell for the prices they have them at. Outside of that I noticed this house.
This house looked really familiar to me. Reason being the Zombie flipper guy reached out to me a month or so ago asking me to sell 50 houses for him. I sent him a follow up email & never heard back. Not really the point. Point is I went on his site to check into him & he's got the same house listed. His house is actually listed for $1.9k more than what is was listed on Roofstock. Both of which are listed about $25k more than what it's actually worth. Were talking low price points to. IE it's worth about $35k, Roofstock has it at $58k & that guy has it on his site for $59.9k...
What's the deal here? You have any insight on what these folks got going on? Spill the beans.
don't know but what if there has been a 30k rehab done to it.. we see this all the time you have a home that has been lived in for 20 to 30 years all the components are that old and ya I guess that sells for like you said a 35k price and its serviceable .
but then you have a flipper rehabber buy it and do a top to bottom rehab for 20 to 25k then sell and make 10 to 15k on it like all flippers do.. maybe that's what happening here..
WE have to remember these mid west homes are sold for cash flow.. so if that rents for 700 to 900 a month which who knows it could and a turnkey buyer can pay 60k that's a great price in todays market for that given cash flow and IF its had a top to bottom rehab then its totally in line with all the other turn key companies in the US I know I fund a bunch of them. . If its just an old dog with no rehab then ya then its over priced.. But I am pretty sure Roofstock once they have done their inspections are not going to sell something that is old and broken down.. they are just like any other turnkey remarketer they want fresh rehabs.. they send their own inspectors in to do the home inspection so they Don't End up with a Morris Invest Oceanpointe fiasco IE selling homes that have no rehab .. they do their own independent inspection that they pay for so they know the inspector is working for them.. Once this is all verified its put on their site.. That's how I have seen it done and understand it.
I have been in their offices they have about 40 people on the floor doing analytical and everything on every market in the US they started selling bulk hedgefund portfolios to other big investors.. and now are entering your space.. you should be happy since your part owner of a title company hopefully you will get some of their business. Also realize Roofstock charges the lowest marketing fee's in the industry lower than any of the other name brand out of state marketing companies your familiar with and in line with what your fee's are .. they are just a broker like you are on most of your stuff..
However I would if I was u next time your in Oakland you should pop into their office like I did I have 44 years in this industry and boy it was darn impressive.. Its really cutting edge.. but that's just my opinion in the for what ever its worth file.
So although and back on subject although not a main distrupter to the business as Out of state marketing companies as you know have been around for a decade or more.. this one is the most advanced by a long shot.. And I have seen all the others up close and personal over the years.. Does not mean the others are not fine people to work with.. just in my mind these guys are got 75 million in venture capital and put it into building robust systems for their clients ... I think they are here to stay..
If they could sell it for that price more power to them I suppose. However I believe that whoever owns that home & thinks they are going to sell it for $60k is gonna loose a whole bunch of money. Looks like they didn't do enough market research IMO.
To a larger degree most industries are having this conversation. Car sales, insurance, real estate, self checkout at the grocery store, and retail,etc.
The largest taxi company in the world doesn’t own any cars (uber).
The largest hotel company in the world owns no properties (AirBNB).
If you can think of an industry someone in Silicon Valley is trying to move your cheese.
I was doing this in the 90s we were one of the largest Log providers in the Willamette valley ( private log providers) and we owned NO equipment... We were uber in the logging business before I even knew what Uber was.
and like Uber who's drivers make very little and have all the fixed over head.
WE bought timber rights or just contracts and put up NO money.. hired the logger for a fee ( uber driver) had payments split at the Mill Landowner got their agreed on.. Logger got their agreed on and we got ours.. Our only over head was putting the business together ... Not logging assets.. which in that business is super capital intensive 300k loaders trucks skidders etc etc.. WE would make double triple even 10X what the logger made on a job and owned nothing.. it was great while it lasted.
@Tom Gimer and how long before that agent is no longer necessary? My own belief, but not necessarily my desire, is that it will be 7 years or less.
Somebody needs to tell all 50 state real estate commissions that the jig is up.
@Chuck Kramer I have, but Zillow is simply not going to be able to provide the same kind of service that a good buyer's agent can. Same goes for Amazon.
No doubt some people will be just fine. It's when things get wrapped around the axle that those buyers will need a good, experienced agent to bail them out or to hold a tough deal together.
Still the smart agent will diversify their income. I'm doing flips, selling residential real estate and brokering businesses. That prepares me for the market taking another nosedive or for a major disruptor like Zillow or Amazon.
Totally agree here. I live in Seattle area and while Amazon may be huge, displacing some market share for other retailers, it will never replace all brick and mortar options- not anywhere close, even in the city it is headquaretered in! For one thing, people get tired of sending things back and forth endlessly, it's a huge time suck if some thing doesn't fit right etc etc. But another, bigger reason is that humans are social animals. Whle we do crave simplicity and ease, we also love to be around other humans- for experiences and to show off our trickets and gadgets. No body gets to do that if we are all sittign at home 24/7! Shopping, movies, eating out etc. are all big time social events constantly happening and no they are not going anywhere.
I have been hearing this stuff for decades. I just laugh every time I hear it again. My commercial real estate business grows,and grows, and grows every year.
I can see some investors buying small properties on the residential side trying to do it all themselves but that is just a small fraction of the market.
In my world people want help. Once they make a certain amount of money they have experts do things for them. I have developer friends and other investors even if they are a broker/agent have another company list and sell for them because they have other things they want to do.
Some people can pinch pennies by stepping over dollars or they can have an ego superiority type complex. Experienced people even if they could do something on a good level get out of the way and let others who are better than them at something do it. Some people can be afraid to put others that are way better than them into a position of helping them because it is the ego complex rearing it's head.
Those who are strong encourage to surround themselves with bright and innovative people. I have learned no matter how smart I am or how much I study I do not have every single great idea out there.
Brokers and agents will be around for a very long time. People feel comfort in emotions and relationships. They want trust. My typical first time commercial retail buyer is a doctor, or someone who sold a business, high level executive, or moving out of a more intensive asset to own and manage. They are millionaires to multi-millionaires and for putting down that kind of money they want someone with a high level of expertise.
Those generic forms are not well used state by state. Nuances are there which if you use a standard cheap form it tends to have holes you can drive a hummer through because it is not state specific. Someone should do a search on BP and there are others posts talking many years ago that brokers and agents would by bye,bye saying the same stuff. Look at today it didn't happen! LOL
I will come back to this post 10 years from now and see where we are at then............. : )
Exactly I am a broker but never list myself or take a commission.. My wife would kill me its her money NOT mine. :)
PS great job on your health regime I started mine last june and am happy camper.
@Chuck Kramer Yes, there's been discussion on this issue before. Like anything, most people want convenience especially when it comes to buying or selling their own home. This is where real estate agents and even other real estate investors come to play. Some people just don't want to do the work. It's understandable. It's funny because we have these services that didn't exist before. They all came out of a want for convenience. Sure, you can still do most things yourself. Especially with the advent of the internet. But in reality, most people would rather have someone do those things for them. The good thing is we all still have a choice. That's what's great about the country we live in. Once choice is taken away, more problems and issues tend to come up. Good topic for discussion!
Jay Hinrichs I don’t know, big companies tend to lobby congress to pass laws in their favor. Who knows, maybe they already have something coming through the pipeline, which is why they are gearing up to “replace agents”. I think the main thing agents need to keep in mind is their ability to adapt. Things are constantly changing, and we can only hope it’s for the best.
NO way.. NAR is one of the biggest lobbys in the country same with state charters.. one big corporation is not going to change the laws that are LAWS on the books..
People who think agents will be replaced have probably not been in too many RE transactions. There is a lot involved in keeping a buyer and seller moving towards closing. The majority get too emotional about a home and are prone to blow up the deal.
A home is the largest investment most people make in their lives. They will keep coming to a pro to see the deal through. Selling a home isn't rocket science, but when a deal goes sideways, having experience helps.
Also, a lot of my clients are investors. We make each other money. If they stop working with me, then I stop sending them deals. They are happy to pay, especially in this market.
@Joseph M. the disruption Is in sales and marketing techniques .. not in replacing agents with robots.
If Redfin get big & popular enough, they can replace the mls listings. ... just at Amazon is replacing shopping malls.
Redfin is a real estate brokerage. All the information from their website comes from the MLS. Like any other brokerage they are part owners of the mls systems. They have no desire to disrupt the mls.
Their ultimate goal is likely to sell their website to a national brokerage as their business model simply doesnt work. They lose $3,000 per transaction. That is simply not sustainable.
If Redfin get big & popular enough, they can replace the mls listings. ... just at Amazon is replacing shopping malls.
still does not replace the agents though.. in resi real estate with people buying their first home or making a real estate transaction that they may do 2 to 3 times in their entire life.. they simply don't know what all the folks on BP know .. that's why we can say hey this is easy why don't we just cut out brokers.. well because 95% of the public its not easy they have no clue and they need guidance.
Attornies could do this.. but attorneys don't show houses.. they don't show up for home inspections they don't work with the appraisers they are transactional coordinators at their desks.. some one has to be in the field at some point.
My thought is somewhat control the network and have a large networks of buyers. You can then approach people who are not even sellers to sell.
I focus on business this way. Other brokerages do it backwards. They list whatever they can and agree to a reduced commission to try to sell whatever for volume. Their goal is to outgrow the other brokerages and take market share. I simply have a client that I have an exclusive with and I have reviewed financials. I go to the seller and say I do not want to list your property. If you want to list it with me I would not take it BUT I do have a buyer that is wanting to buy right now if you are considering selling. I write in my fee and we go from there.
I still work on some listed properties where my buyer is purchasing. Unlike the big commercial brokerages ( not all but many) I source all of my contacts ( many thousands and thousands ) to show my clients the best ones available. The larger brokerages tend to show just what is in their inventory and say what about this or that. If there is not a match they generally do not have time to go searching as they are selling their listings.
I take the opposite approach. The more well connected you are the more people tend to want to do business with you. You flip the funnel where all the leads come to you and you decide what relationships and business you want to take on instead of the opposite.