Too Many "Investors" Owning Homes...Are We Heading For A Whole New Serious R/E Problem?

Too Many "Investors" Owning Homes...Are We Heading For A Whole New Serious R/E Problem?

Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes

I would like to address a concern I have about the herd-mentality of everyone and their uncle becoming "investors" and how this is likely to have very serious long term implications on housing that few have thought much about. This is my concern:

For the past several years the housing market has been predominantly made up of many thousands of cash-only investors buying up millions of cheap homes across the country. Many drawn by the allure of being real estate "moguls" and by unscrupulous real estate DVDs/Books/Seminars/Mentors/Infomercials come-ons etc. Being circumspect as I am, I ask myself this: I want to know when this country finally gets out this real estate rut in the next couple of years (assumingly), what will happen to the millions of homes owned by most of these starry-eyed investors who want out and aren't in this for the long haul.

I am in fear we will invariably have a whole new set of huge problems (not foreclosures): either the wide-eyed (many) inexperienced investors (now “landlords”) wanting to get out of being a landlord; investors wanting to simply cash-out sooner ("this is not for me") than later or for whatever reason they have to dump/sell their investment homes. Thus creating a potential flood of investor-owned homes in the market diluting home prices further. And here we go again...but now with a whole different set of real estate problems: too many investors selling their homes all at the same time in a short few year time span as soon as they see prices starting to notch up ("sell and take the money and run"). I fear avery large number of these people who got into the foreclosure buying boom will all be dumping their houses on to the market place to get out of this. Look, not all these investors today can be in it for the long haul and want to be in it for years to come. The minute prices go up and the economy picks up, like Wall Street, it will be 'sell, sell, sell'!

Seemingly, this notion will curb future home building with too many investors cashing-out of their investments flooding the market. It's inevitable. I am just concerned we are just shifting one problem (foreclosures) for another (investor dumping) in a few years from now. Am I missing something here? I don't hear much talk about this potential looming problem.

Just a thought.

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Flipper/Rehabber · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2008 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
14y

Where are the fab 5 on this topic. J. W. B. C. & J.

To the post: Personally I don't care. I buy and sell based upon the current market. And investors are already dumping property. They're called shorts. Our profession should push those out who can't hang and reward those who see the light.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Real Estate Agent · Ivor, VA · Member since 2011 · 73 posts · 21 votes
    14y

    That will happen for sure but to want extent nobody knows. But I would like to point out that is that very same influx of new investors that has cushioned the fall.

  • Mark UpdegraffBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Rochester, NY · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 701 votes
    14y

    Worst case the "investors" take a hair cut when they sell. If they don't want to take a loss then they must wait until the market can support the price they need. Any upward motion in the housing market will be slow, it will not be like the easy credit days. Another "boom" is not happening like before as lending is much tighter.

    Anyone buying correctly today and tomorrow will be OK selling in the future. With building at a near standstill population growth will eventually absorb the glut of inventory. In the mean time, buyers will continue to cherry pick the best deals! These deals could be the starry eyed "investors" getting out (when they didn't even get in good), or more foreclosures due to unemployment. IMO prices on a whole will stay repressed for quite some time still (5-15 years). That said, location is always the most important factor and you can find areas that are appreciating currently. For instance the Marcellus Shale region is experiencing high growth, high rental rates, next to zero vacancy, and long wait lists for subsidized housing. Many on BP say Austin is also a great place to be investing. I've personally had the best success by being most careful in regards to location.

    Happy investing!
    Mark

  • Hatfield, PA · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 629 votes
    14y

    One of the benefits of rental properties compared to owning a business, even if too many investors, you should be able to rent out the unit at some (even lower) price. (Whereas a business may fold if not meeting its costs)

    I am mostly a longterm B&H person. Every deal should have cashflow well above your costs. I am very much expecting things to get worse for landlords. But even strongly reducing rent, as long as you are making your costs, at least you are paying down principal and making something.

  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    14y

    Something not mentioned here, is apartment building is actually strong right now because rents are climbing. I was quite surprised to hear that. That could add to an even greater oversupply of housing.

    The bottom line is supply and demand. The population will drive housing prices. Economics will drive population shifts and some areas will win and some will lose.

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y

    You all make great points and are spot on but my chief concern is that we now have a one dimensional population of homeowners: Investors. That's not a good thing. That's how we all got into this mess in the first place. We had a huge population of one dimensional homeowners: sub-prime borrowers. Assuredly, these many thousands or hundreds of thousands of "investors" people buying up these cheap homes can't and aren't ALL suited nor will want to be landlords for long, nor are they ALL "buy and holders" and certainly not ALL are financially fit to be property owners.

    My concern is that we have too much of one singular population of homeowners today and not all of them are going to be hanging on for 10 or 15+ years. Most will cash-out and flood the market with too many homes when they can't handle it or they see prices tick up even a bit. There is no diversity of home ownership anymore. You got a huge population of "investors" a herd mentality, and I think it's a VERY large sum of people who will want to be out of it in 5 years or less for whatever reason you can think of. This is not a good thing. As a land developer, this is not a good thing.

    Mark is right, 5-15 years before prices rebound, closer to the 15 in my opinion especially in places like here in CA, NV, FL and AZ. My take eon real estate: go where the jobs are and companies are moving (like Texas) and low cost of loving.

    I think we have traded in one serious problem for another and that story has yet to be told. You can't have one type of homeonwer out there or the domino effct will happen all over again.

  • Involved In Real Estate · Rochester Hills, MI · Member since 2010 · 812 posts · 178 votes
    14y

    Over their head landlords? Sounds like a great opportunity to buy more property.

  • Involved In Real Estate · Houston, TX · Member since 2008 · 39 posts · 7 votes
    14y

    This is what your hypothesis sounds like to me:
    Prices will rise, causing investors to sell, causing prices to fall ->
    Rising prices = falling prices?

    If your theory is that a rebound in housing prices will directly lead to a crash in prices, I believe your concept is contradictory.

    It is possible that we could expect appreciation beyond a certain point to be mitigated by investor sell-off, "profit taking" as prices rebound. In fact, you could make the argument that this is happening now. I know that in my market and in many others, volume is way up but prices are not necessarily rising in correspondence. This could be one answer.

    Originally posted by Steven Marks:
    I would like to address a concern I have about the herd-mentality of everyone and their uncle becoming "investors" and how this is likely to have very serious long term implications on housing that few have thought much about. This is my concern:

    For the past several years the housing market has been predominantly made up of many thousands of cash-only investors buying up millions of cheap homes across the country. Many drawn by the allure of being real estate "moguls" and by unscrupulous real estate DVDs/Books/Seminars/Mentors/Infomercials come-ons etc. Being circumspect as I am, I ask myself this: I want to know when this country finally gets out this real estate rut in the next couple of years (assumingly), what will happen to the millions of homes owned by most of these starry-eyed investors who want out and aren't in this for the long haul.

    I am in fear we will invariably have a whole new set of huge problems (not foreclosures): either the wide-eyed (many) inexperienced investors (now “landlords”) wanting to get out of being a landlord; investors wanting to simply cash-out sooner ("this is not for me") than later or for whatever reason they have to dump/sell their investment homes. Thus creating a potential flood of investor-owned homes in the market diluting home prices further. And here we go again...but now with a whole different set of real estate problems: too many investors selling their homes all at the same time in a short few year time span as soon as they see prices starting to notch up ("sell and take the money and run"). I fear avery large number of these people who got into the foreclosure buying boom will all be dumping their houses on to the market place to get out of this. Look, not all these investors today can be in it for the long haul and want to be in it for years to come. The minute prices go up and the economy picks up, like Wall Street, it will be 'sell, sell, sell'!

    Seemingly, this notion will curb future home building with too many investors cashing-out of their investments flooding the market. It's inevitable. I am just concerned we are just shifting one problem (foreclosures) for another (investor dumping) in a few years from now. Am I missing something here? I don't hear much talk about this potential looming problem.

    Just a thought.

  • Investor · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2012 · 366 posts · 214 votes
    14y

    Steven, I understand your argument but I don't think it's likely that one day everybody who bought a rental house in the past few years is going to sell all at once. There are going to be many like myself who will hold them for 10 or more years. Others who are looking to make a quick profit may sell over the next few years but certainly not all at once. Here in Phoenix we are up 25% from our low last August and rising at a 3% monthly rate, yes monthly rate. Inventory is so low now it's unbelievable. There is tremendous pent up demand for housing so any inventory released by investors in the next few years will definitely be absorbed IMHO

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y

    [/b]

    Originally posted by Matt Jankowski:
    This is what your hypothesis sounds like to me:
    Prices will rise, causing investors to sell, causing prices to fall ->
    Rising prices = falling prices?

    If your theory is that a rebound in housing prices will directly lead to a crash in prices, I believe your concept is contradictory.

    It is possible that we could expect appreciation beyond a certain point to be mitigated by investor sell-off, "profit taking" as prices rebound. In fact, you could make the argument that this is happening now. I know that in my market and in many others, volume is way up but prices are not necessarily rising in correspondence. This could be one answer.

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Albert Hasson:
    Steven, I understand your argument but I don't think it's likely that one day everybody who bought a rental house in the past few years is going to sell all at once. There are going to be many like myself who will hold them for 10 or more years. Others who are looking to make a quick profit may sell over the next few years but certainly not all at once. Here in Phoenix we are up 25% from our low last August and rising at a 3% monthly rate, yes monthly rate. Inventory is so low now it's unbelievable. There is tremendous pent up demand for housing so any inventory released by investors in the next few years will definitely be absorbed IMHO

    I hope you are right Albert but I have fears in places espcially like Phoenix, Vegas, Miami etc has too many homes owned by one type of investor. Not everyone will have the patience, timeline, finances, efforts or whatever to own rental properties.

    On another matter, are you seeing a lot of spec homes being built in Phoenix? I have some clients who are looking to buy land there. Don't have have a pulse on the building market there (if there is any). I am aware of the heated market there. Thanks!

  • Involved In Real Estate · Houston, TX · Member since 2008 · 39 posts · 7 votes
    14y

    Ok, it seemed from your earlier posts that the crisis you foresee has as a prerequisite a rebound in prices. I think that doesn't make sense.

    You are correct to identify that the demographics of home-ownership are changing, and you are correct to think that such a shift will have consequences, but it probably won't be as simple as an "investor sell-off".

    Some things I think about: Investors perform maintenance on their properties in different ways. They finance properties in different ways. When investors renovate to flip, they do so to very different standards than the home-owner himself would.

    10,20,30 yrs down the road, these changes will surely have an effect on something, but what will it be?

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2008 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    14y

    Where are the fab 5 on this topic. J. W. B. C. & J.

    To the post: Personally I don't care. I buy and sell based upon the current market. And investors are already dumping property. They're called shorts. Our profession should push those out who can't hang and reward those who see the light.

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Michael Quarles:
    Where are the fab 5 on this topic. J. W. B. C. & J.

    To the post: Personally I don't care. I buy and sell based upon the current market. And investors are already dumping property. They're called shorts. Our profession should push those out who can't hang and reward those who see the light.

    From your mouth to the man upstairs ears!

  • Rental Property Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2010 · 476 posts · 305 votes
    14y

    The good and strong investors will always adapt to the market changes on wont live in fear. I agree with Micheal as well.

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Matt Jankowski:
    Ok, it seemed from your earlier posts that the crisis you foresee has as a prerequisite a rebound in prices. I think that doesn't make sense.

    You are correct to identify that the demographics of home-ownership are changing, and you are correct to think that such a shift will have consequences, but it probably won't be as simple as an "investor sell-off".

    Some things I think about: Investors perform maintenance on their properties in different ways. They finance properties in different ways. When investors renovate to flip, they do so to very different standards than the home-owner himself would.

    10,20,30 yrs down the road, these changes will surely have an effect on something, but what will it be?

    My concern/thoughts that there will be a big broad shake out of these "fakers" and "early/short-term dumpers" and I am feeling there are more than we think who are doing this by the seat of their pants. I just hope they all don't start dumping the market with homes in a concentrated / short span time.

  • Rental Property Investor · Colorado Springs, CO · Member since 2010 · 476 posts · 305 votes
    14y

    If they do then thats just more houses for the smart investors to buy.

  • Landlord · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    14y

    I've been investing in real estate now for over 15 years. I expect that I will still have real estate in my portfolio 20 years from now.

    I don't see much likelihood of investors dropping out of real estate in mass. There are several problems with your premise. First I don't see investors being underwater and wanting to just walk away. Second I think there will be ample other investors that would want to purchase real estate when newbie investors that are not real landlords decide to get out. Being a landlord is not for everyone but there are plenty of investors wanting to be landlords.

    Monica Breckenridge makes an excellent point. Long term investors will adapt. Those that haven't got a clue what to do when the market changes will probably fall out, but there will be plenty of other investors around to pick up the pieces.

    Interest rates are low, real estate is artificially low in some cases. Regulations will change. Change will not happen over night but it will change. Astute investors will change with the changes.

  • Developer · Encino, CA · Member since 2009 · 65 posts · 15 votes
    14y

    There is no diversity of home ownership anymore. Owner ocuppiers are becoming rare. You got a huge population of "investors" a herd mentality. If you have a one dimensional market of millions of investor owned homes, too much concentration of one kind of owner, that spells trouble in my mind in untold ways. We had too much concentration and a one dimensional market already with sub-prime borrowers. We know what happend with that. Too much of one thing without diversity is not a good thing.

  • Landlord · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    14y

    Why does that make a difference? There are many countries where only few individuals actually own their homes.

    The market will change and home ownership I believe will come back. I just don't believe you will see a mass exodus by the majority of RE investors. Instead as individuals begin to improve their credit and feel comfortable in there financial situation they will begin looking for a home of their own. There will no doubt be investors willing to sell these homes.

    There will be buyers and sellers markets again. I just think it is easy to get caught up in the here and now and assume that this is the way it will always be. I can all but guarantee that it is not.

    Will things change dramatically in the next year or two probably not but in the course of 10 or 20 years I would say that it is nearly a certainty.

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2011 · 86 posts · 9 votes
    14y

    Investors hoping for appreciation and are accepting negative cashflow, or those who didn't understand what they were getting into will be quick to jump-ship, but what's the rush to sell when you're making a good return on your money each month? The only rush to sell would be for a better opportunity and there aren't many better opportunities.

    The only real risk is rent prices crashing. If that happens you will see a "mass exodus", but I think inflation will keep rents at least in place numerically. In purchase power they may be in fact go down, but at the dollar value I purchased at there will be no change, and therefore the investment will continue at the same rate of return. If my ROI is higher than inflation I'm staying ahead of it, and in today's market many people would be happy with simply conserving their purchase power.

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    14y

    Yes, foolish people are buying rentals that won't cash flow. No, its not a problem.

    Why? This is nothing new. The "cash flow = rent - PITI" myth has been around forever. Even banks don't believe this, prefering to use "(75%*rent) - PITI". But that doesn't keep real estate listings and sellers from claiming otherwise. Banks are also very conservative about lending right now. They want 25% or more down and want to see that you can afford the payment without the rent. So, yes, some of these "investors" will end up having to continously put cash into these properties. And some will sell at a loss. But the overall effect will be trivial compared to all the ridiculous loans that were made during the bubble. There's no historical precedent to what happened during the bubble, and I don't expect to see anything like that in my lifetime. We're back to the usual foolishness of naive investors getting misled about what they're buying.

  • Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
    14y

    Unless we go into Great Depression 2.0 I don't see rent prices dropping much further, at least in my area.

    While I agree that there seem to be some newer investors who don't understand cash flow (or maybe they are just speculating), it seems that if your scenario comes to pass, it would just create more opportunity for those who are able to buy properties at a discount from these burned out landlords

  • Investor · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 450 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Steven Marks:
    There is no diversity of home ownership anymore. Owner ocuppiers are becoming rare. You got a huge population of "investors" a herd mentality. If you have a one dimensional market of millions of investor owned homes, too much concentration of one kind of owner, that spells trouble in my mind in untold ways. We had too much concentration and a one dimensional market already with sub-prime borrowers. We know what happend with that. Too much of one thing without diversity is not a good thing.

    Since your premise seams to be based on the "concentration of investor ownership of the housing market", I'd like to see some data that shows the difference in concentration of ownership type. Or is this just how you "feel". Surely investor ownership has gone up as people who actually have the means to maintain respsonsible ownership are taking advantage of a great oppurtunity and others who never had the abilty to maintain ownership get forglosed. But I hardly think their are more investor owned homes that OO homes.

    I could be wrong, but until you show substantial supporting data, I have to disagree. Are you also concerned with the high number of apartment dwellings both past, present and future? What is the difference between high proportions of investor owned dwellings consisting of apartment units and high propotrions of investor owend dwelling consisting of single family homes?

    Even if it was true, what basis do you have to justify that majority investor owned homes would cause some sort of problem? You have eluded to "we have all seen what happened," but I'm not sure what you are talking about. The housing bust had nothing to do with a concentraton of a type of ownnership and all to do with irresponsible loaning and borrowing of money.

    Worste case scenario I see is landlords competing with each other and rents loweing. At which point some of these "investment properties" will no longer be sustainanable and will be turned over to a different owner/user. As Jon Holdman said, people have been buying bad investments since the beginning of time. No reason why suddenly it will all come to a head. Really, with tightened lending standards, there is probably a higher chance that these "herd" investors have the wherewithall to keep their properties , thus removing them from the market, ulitmately driving values up and incentivising causing new construction.

  • Bismarck, ND · Member since 2011 · 142 posts · 16 votes
    14y

    I believe that investors like us are absolutely vital to the housing markets. Nobody knows whether a house is over or under valued better than us so we play a big role in keeping the values in check.

    A fool and their money will always be seperated but there are more than enough people that know what they are doing to keep things in check and to even undo some of the stupid things that owner occupied properties do.

    I believe it was already mentioned but the increased lending restrictions by banks really weed out the bad investors because they are requiring much more skin in the game.

    The biggest problem in the future is all these 30 year mortgages locked in at 4%. This is the most insane situation there is but it could be very advantageous when the rates go up because how are the banks going to hold onto all these 4% mortgages when the rates go up to 6%? They won't be able to and will be offering deals to have the loans paid off faster which will be great for us. There shouldn't be any terms longer than 5 years.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    14y

    Survival of the fitest always prevails!

    Something I have not seen mentioned is the age and functionality of the inventory held by newer investors. I would guess that most beginning investors have been buying lower/middle priced homes, few are buying homes that are say newer than 7 years old. These are the ones who will most likely bail out, holding older homes with higher maintenance and with less functionality.

    The natural attrition of these homes will come into play. 10 and 15 years out many of these new investors will be holding 30, 40 and 50+ year old properties. Unless they update and maintain (which I doubt most will do) these properties will mature and the highest and best use of the property may determine their demise. Redevelopment of older areas should be considered. Investors who dump properties may do so for new developments.

    I doubt you will see a mass dumping all over the country. Populations are still increasing and demand for housing will be strong. The type of inventory will likely change. If the middle class continues to shrink so will the types of neighborhoods they reside in and land usage will change. Any investor selecting an investment property in an average location may decline with further maturity and the disposition of such properties should be very slow.

    Few investors I know hold inventories for more than 7 to 10 years as they update to more desirable locations and newer homes. Those beginning investors who have entered the market with limited funds in lower priced homes and plans to hold for 20 years may realize their error of their ways when it's too late.

    However, I believe, from what I have seen in my hometown, the explosion of multi-family units will be changing life styles. The recent housing bust may have changed attitudes of many younger people about home ownership. This together with doubts about future incomes and job stability of younger people may influence the ability or even desire to save thereby strengthing the rent roles. Many may opt for more functional, energy efficient units than older, less efficient single family homes. This may influence an accelerated demise of mature neighborhoods. Who knows?

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