Ken McElroy Doesn't Do Apartments At This Point!

Ken McElroy Doesn't Do Apartments At This Point!

Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes

In a 2018 video, Ken McElroy said he doesn't do apartment investing anymore. Talked about how it is too hard to make them work with the low cap rates, and instead he builds from the ground up. He's obviously a big name in the field so I gulped, because I heard from Ashcroft/Joe Fairless about a deal in WInter Park, FL that seemed so solid I pulled the trigger last month. My first-ever multifamily investment. 

Of course, Praxis is good, too. And I like 4 Mile Capital, and someone said something positive about Three Pillars. Neil Bawa certainly seems to know what he is doing. Ryan McKenna is all over deals these days. 

I'm just wondering if ya'll feel that Ken is mistaken, or being gimmicky. I mean, Joe F. says he has done this 27 times, and I haven't heard that Praxis is getting out of the game. I'm trying to use multifamily passive investing to build wealth and be my heavy hitter. I get that a lot of syndicators are in this space, and that cap rates are quite low. But a value-add investment not being able to "work", gosh I just doubt that Joe Fairless would be able to be convinced of that. 

Then again, sometimes a vehicle with a lot of inertia can't slow down if it wanted to. Perhaps that is why Rod Khleif lost $50,000,000 in SFDs in 2008; the idea of throwing in the towel just didn't occur to him.

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Brian BurkePro Member
Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @Jason Merchey:

In a 2018 video, Ken McElroy said he doesn't do apartment investing anymore. Talked about how it is too hard to make them work with the low cap rates, and instead he builds from the ground up.  

To say that you don't invest in apartments, but build apartments from the ground up is a bit of a red herring.  Make no mistake, building apartments from the ground up is not only investing in apartments, it is doing so with a strategy carrying one of the highest risk profiles.

If prices fall (which means a reversal of the cap rates that are being faulted for making investing unattractive), developers would suffer just as bad as owners of existing buildings, and perhaps worse.

But Ken is selling investments in developments, so it is his job to articulate his reasons why his strategy is better.  I sell investments in multifamily value-add syndication investments, so it would be my job to market those by pointing out the availability of multifamily investments below replacement cost in the marketplace, and rising construction costs which make development less attractive.  But I suck at marketing, so I'll say that the truth is that there is room for both strategies and there is nothing wrong with either of them.

Developers and their investors are willing to accept higher risks to chase higher returns.  Value-add operators and their investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for lower risk.  In my observation, these are often two different investors.  We did a several-million dollar development fund last year and it oversubscribed in 30 hours.  But by and large, the investors subscribing to it were a different set of folks than typically invest in our acquisition vehicles.  So, to each their own--and no matter what the strategy, it works--until it doesn't.

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  • Engineer · Portland, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    @Jason Merchey I’m more circumspect than sanguine but that’s just as to the general market conditions. I’m not criticizing your specific value-add project, I’m not an expert in this area and it sounds like you have done your DD.

    The only purpose of my post was to comment on risk which wasn’t directed to you. I just observed some accomplished investors honestly presenting risk/return vs, some blue-sky investors making categorical statements about perceived risk which has proven historically questionable. Just think of the Turkey 🦃 anecdote from Talebs book.

    By the way I’ve been an advocate of Florida investments for many years due to demographic trends. I wish I would have taken my own advice 5 years ago when I flew to look at RE over there.

  • Engineer · Portland, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    @Jason Merchey. I’m pretty much just saying the exact same thing @Todd Dexheimer is speaking about just less eloquently and detailed than the manner he has put it forward.

  • Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes
    7y

    Couple points to make: The most recent deal I got involved in, the DSCR in Year 1 was 1.8. Year 2 was 1.6. Then up above 2.0 for the remainder of the 5-year period. As Rod Khleif says here, a great NOI and DSCR are the hearts of a solid deal. Just trying to demonstrate that multifamily value-add in today's lending environment is a smart move, by and large.

  • Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes
    7y

    Todd, when I say ""you might have a misunderstanding of the nature of the cap rate increase. The purpose of increasing it by a half-point or a point for five years' time is not, as many believe, to account for a possible expansion of cap rates in the foreseeable future", you asked If that is the case, then why do sponsors use it in their underwriting to come up with a future sales price? The answer is because it makes sponsors look responsible. But according to what I was taught by someone I believe, it's not due to the attempt to be conservative for good measure, and it's not to try to predict the future of cap rates. It ought to be a way to account for some depreciation in the asset that will inevitably occur starting on Day 1. It's a minor point but I hope that clarifies. This is arguable of course.

    Understood about the rest of your post. It's all good.

  • Investor · FL · Member since 2017 · 247 posts · 245 votes
    7y

    Hi Jason, Ken McElroy or (MC Companies) just released a deal about a month or two ago. I believe it filled up in about 48 hours because he has a lot of investors and hasn't done a deal in a while now. Make sure your investment philosophy aligns with the syndication group(s) you invest with. I have invested in 7 or 8 deals with Joe Fairless (Ashcroft Capital). I have made continued investments with Ashcroft because of the alignment in investing philosophy. Good pick! 

  • Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes
    7y

    Thanks, Travis.

    Well if you're saying that Ken McE just took down an existing asset, then I'll be a monkey's uncle. That video I saw was 2018 I believe, and I'm not sure why he would up and change his tactic. I must misunderstand, did you mean that he got funding for his ground-up development deal and it had mad interest in it?

  • Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 745 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Jason Merchey:

    @Jay Hinrichs

    keep in mind MF does not have to go into default to wipe out investors equity.. and I am not saying any of the people your investing in are going to get wiped out.. just commenting that the stats for the real world are skewed since so many commercial loans get some sort of work out behind the scenes.. the bank gets paid but those with 25 to 35% of the cash in the deal may not get their money back..

    True, true. I get the behind closed doors work-out thing, and also the "you can lose your investment without defaulting on the debt" thing. In fact, that is the very reason you suggested the HML outfit you did last week -- they have a "senior note" tranch that seems very insulated from damage. As well, on a prominent syndicator, on his last deal, offered Class A and B shares, and I'm not absolutely sure that I can divulge much about it but I will simply say that one is first in line in regard to seniority.

    I think the main point here, despite this little tangent, is that MF is not insulated from loss like the sector has some kind of magic talisman. But according to Moore and others, it is a very strong investment in the hands of good operators in good cities with good loans. I wouldn't, as a rule, invest with a poor operator or a bad city or a bad loan. The question is whether I know enough about cap rates and market cycles and operators and cities and loans to suss it all out and make a return on my investment. Time will tell, I suppose! "A fool and his money are soon separated," it is said.

    Here is my big question about multi family, an area up until now we haven't invested (but would like to in the future).  It seems like most of these MF syndications are value add deals where you go in, fix up some of the units, improve the management systems, increase the rent and then sell it in 3-5 years.

    The actual deal without the ability to increase rents is not particularly good as cap rates are really compressed.  

    But the biggest concern is as I understand it a very large portion of these deals rely on the ability to cash out.  And the initial financing in most of these syndications are giver or take 3-5 years in duration.

    IF we hit a nasty recession, its going to be impossible to sell, and banks may shut down their lending, and if you cant sell, you are forced to refinance.    So it might be tough if not impossible to refinance. 

    And the elephant in the room, that everyone seems to have forgotten, is IF interest rates kick up to 2-3% from where they are now, that buyers will look for higher cap rates. 

    I really think we have gotten complacent with low interest rates, if you have long term financing, IMO increased inflation is great for you. If you don't, you could be forced to sell into a beat market.  

  • Andrew HoganPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2016 · 560 posts · 463 votes
    7y

    @Bart H. That's exactly why you've got to be extremely disciplined in your underwriting and acquisitions these days. Many high value-add investors right now will be FORCED to sell at a discount during the next market correction.

     At this point in time, we only choose properties that cash flow out of the gate and don't have a ton of problems to solve.

    Any sponsor that can get agency financing with 10+ yr rate lock is able to mitigate their downside risk and enable the asset to cash flow through a buyers market. 

    At the end of the day, it comes down to who is running the show -- whether it's single-family or multifamily it's a make or break.

  • Investor · FL · Member since 2017 · 247 posts · 245 votes
    7y

    @Andrew Hogan Well said. I spend 10x the amount of time vetting the team vs vetting the deal. @Jason Merchey I'd be happy to discuss the project MC Companies just funded. New deal, value-add, AZ. Reach out anytime 

  • Dallas area · Member since 2019 · 13 posts · 0 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Greg Dickerson:

    Building ground up is a great strategy but requires a whole different skill set and serious expertise but the upside can be double the typical value add play. 

    What skill set and expertise would a passive investor need to credibly evaluate a MF development deal? 

    A good portion of the underwriting analysis for a value-add MF deal makes use of data from the existing property (rent rolls, property taxes, etc.). For a development deal, that data doesn't exist, so what would an underwriter use in its place? Projections and comps?

    Thanks!
     Ed Matthews

  • Developer · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Ed Matthews:
    Originally posted by @Greg Dickerson:

    Building ground up is a great strategy but requires a whole different skill set and serious expertise but the upside can be double the typical value add play. 

    What skill set and expertise would a passive investor need to credibly evaluate a MF development deal? 

    A good portion of the underwriting analysis for a value-add MF deal makes use of data from the existing property (rent rolls, property taxes, etc.). For a development deal, that data doesn't exist, so what would an underwriter use in its place? Projections and comps?

    Thanks!
     Ed Matthews

    That’s correct you would project income and expenses based on comps. 

  • Investor · Spring City, PA · Member since 2019 · 56 posts · 41 votes
    6y

    @Jason Merchey From an interview I listened to recently Ken still has 1000's of units. He's stopped buying for the moment because prices have gone up so much due to equity funds mostly investing and not worrying too much about exit CAP only because they need to invest large sums of money they have. He's not out of the game per se. if you find a deal that works for go for it. The markets at a high so good deals are hard to come by but people are still doing deals. I found a large fixer upper deal but other than that I'm mostly waiting on a correction or staying open for the ‘right' deal. Good luck 🍀

  • Investor · Spring City, PA · Member since 2019 · 56 posts · 41 votes
    6y

    @Jason Merchey this is a different interview from the one I heard.

  • Dallas area · Member since 2019 · 13 posts · 0 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Greg Dickerson:
    Originally posted by @Ed Matthews:
    Originally posted by @Greg Dickerson:

    Building ground up is a great strategy but requires a whole different skill set and serious expertise but the upside can be double the typical value add play. 

    What skill set and expertise would a passive investor need to credibly evaluate a MF development deal? 

    A good portion of the underwriting analysis for a value-add MF deal makes use of data from the existing property (rent rolls, property taxes, etc.). For a development deal, that data doesn't exist, so what would an underwriter use in its place? Projections and comps?

    Thanks!
     Ed Matthews

    That’s correct you would project income and expenses based on comps. 

    Does that mean only comps are used? Or are there other analytical tools commonly used?

    For instance, building one more 100+ property in an area with 20 similar existing properties would put little downward pressure on rents, assuming a reasonable population increase. But in an area with only one existing property, the effective doubling of the number of doors would put a greater pressure on rents to go down. Such an impact ought to be considered when the comps are analyzed, correct?

    Additionally, if the area has few competing properties, there may not be any that are truly comparable (e.g., building a new A property when surrounding it are only older B- properties). In this case, it's arguable whether the comps are legitimate, and then to what extent a conservative underwriter would discount comps to negate the differences.

    A friend of mine built homes years ago for $75 / sq ft, live in them for 2 years, then sell them for $150/ sq ft. I can see a similar possible gain in building a larger MF property and selling it shortly after it's built (or at least doing a cash-out refi). The challenge is forecasting what rents the developer would be able to charge in an area with limited real comps.

  • Rental Property Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2010 · 390 posts · 599 votes
    6y

    It is not so much that Ken is not buying multifamily or bullish on the space, it is that Ken is NOT BUYING MULTIFAMILY IN ARIZONA . He has been buying and syndicating in the state since the early 90s and has seen the cycle repeat itself. He  would rather build as his per unit construction cost is generally the same as a class B-C build in Maricopa County. He still owns thousands of units in state but will not buy based on a broker proforma at a per sq/ft cost equivalent to a new build. Most of the guys doing this in AZ are either from out of state or have not been around long enough to appreciate our submarket specific cycle. This cycle has repeated itself over and over and if you can read it then you will know the right time to buy in PHX, Tucson and tertiary. If you can read between the lines, Ken's just saying in a round about way that right now is not the time to be a buyer of multifamily in PHX Metro and I agree. 

  • Real Estate Syndicator · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 907 votes
    6y

    Deals are definitely hard to come by in today's market, that's for sure.  Its essential to be extra conservative on your underwriting.  That being said, deals are still out there, just have to put in a lot of work to find them.

  • Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes
    6y

    Yes I just passed on investing passively in a value-add deal that was a 4.7 cap, $55,000,000 price, and no institutional loan. 

  • Bryan MitchellPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Columbus, GA · Member since 2016 · 634 posts · 337 votes
    6y

    @Jason Merchey, syndication? 

  • Investor · Hendersonville, NC · Member since 2013 · 757 posts · 282 votes
    6y

    Yah a syndicated deal with a big-name operator in the space. They are catching fish in a barrel in the Southern United States, but it just doesn't feel like I should put another egg in that basket, at this time at least. If I were to do anything along these lines, I would probably want to do a Praxis investment before I went back to Company A.

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