Need advice on my real estate investment strategy

Need advice on my real estate investment strategy

Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2022 · 68 posts · 52 votes

Hello fellow investors,

Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

Basis of my assumption: 

My house was $320,000 in 2020.
Now $550,000 in 2022

Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 

2Reply
30 views

Most Popular Reply

Joe VilleneuvePro Member
Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
4y

Terrible strategy.  Assumed appreciation can't be counted on. Past appreciation rates have no bearing on any future ones.  Besides, you can't substitute gains from appreciation against negative CF.  Cash flow is real...appreciation is an imaginary number that can only be real when turned into cash...as in selling the property.  Appreciation isn't cash.

Negative CF means you are adding that negative CF to your cost of the property.  Positive CF means whatever cash you put into the deal (DP) is the ONLY cost to the property.  $12-15k negative CF/year is actually an exponential loss.  If you used that money to reinvest with, instead of spending it as negative CF, you would get a "real" cash return out of it.

See this reply in the discussion

18 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    4y

    Terrible strategy.  Assumed appreciation can't be counted on. Past appreciation rates have no bearing on any future ones.  Besides, you can't substitute gains from appreciation against negative CF.  Cash flow is real...appreciation is an imaginary number that can only be real when turned into cash...as in selling the property.  Appreciation isn't cash.

    Negative CF means you are adding that negative CF to your cost of the property.  Positive CF means whatever cash you put into the deal (DP) is the ONLY cost to the property.  $12-15k negative CF/year is actually an exponential loss.  If you used that money to reinvest with, instead of spending it as negative CF, you would get a "real" cash return out of it.

  • Member since 2019 · 41 posts · 41 votes
    4y

    Hi Akshay, No, don't do it. In RE, appreciation is a bonus perk. 
    If you are investing for appreciation, its like you are buying a stock (speculating it will go up).

    Instead I would recommend a couple of options if that's possible for you:
    1. Convert primary home to rental (you will get good CF for sure!) and buy a new primary home (relatively low interest rate vs investment property). They way I am looking at this is, the same $80k will yield you ~$1000/month in CF. This new ~ $1000/month CF might balance your increase in new house payment + HELOC (you can do the math). But at least it will not be a step back.
    2. Take HELOC on current primary home at 4.24% and make sure your new investment IRR (not ROI!) is much greater than 4.24%. IRR is time based return, ROI is not. The reason I say much greater than 4.24% is because HELOCs have floating interest rates, so there will be a possibility of it going up in the near future. Syndications offer an average IRR of 13-18%, look them up if you haven't explored this option.

    Goodluck on your investing journey and hope this help!

  • Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    4y

    As others said I would not do this, bad idea. Find a property that cashflows. You can get creative on how to do that but don't put yourself in a hole with a -$1,200 in cashflow/month on top of using the HELOC as a down payment

  • Rental Property Investor · Clarksville, TN · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Akshay Bhaskaran

    You are not accounting for the wear and tear that five years of tenants leaves on the property. Neither, the cost of selling, capital expenditures, repairs nor opportunity cost appear to have been figured into your analysis as well.

    I would not buy something with negative cash flow that lasted longer than a year or so, and only then when I don't have any money in the deal. Even if you had a tolerance for it, this does not seem like a good allocation of resources.

  • Investor · Fairfax, VA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 801 votes
    4y

    It has to cash flow.  Maybe look for a duplex, quad or some kind of value add opportunity where the cash flow makes more sense.

  • Real Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 941 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    Hello fellow investors,

    Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

    1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

    2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

    3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

    4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

    5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

    6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

    Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

    Basis of my assumption: 

    My house was $320,000 in 2020.
    Now $550,000 in 2022

    Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 


    I force cash flow in Austin by renting properties creatively like STR, MTR, or rent by the room. You can still make this work and not bleed cash every month. I took a duplex that was -$500/month and now it's doing $1,700/month just by furnishing it.

  • Member since 2021 · 20 posts · 18 votes
    4y

    HI @Akshay Bhaskaran, all is not lost :)

    If you follow @Conner Olsen's example, and assuming that $1700 is net of all real and budgeted expenses then you'd be up about $500 in your case. Not bad, miles better than being negative, but a big repair or replacement could wipe out a year or more of income. However, as David Greene from the BP podcasts like to advise, while cashflow is important when you're starting out, appreciation is the key to building real wealth in the long run (The Real Estate Investing Podcast | BiggerPockets). So as long as you're not counting on that cashflow for living, and you can accept net zero or a little bit negative in some years, then I think it's valid to count on appreciation for your area. Considering that Samsung and Tesla are already there, chances are good that other high paying companies will follow, more people will come and home values will appreciate. Be conservative with your underwriting and assume 5% appreciation, and include the other expenses listed on BP calculator. And also include the fact that rents will increase every year.

    Another thing that David advises is to find the worst property in the best area that you can afford, and fix it up to a standard that will attract high quality tenants/guests who are willing to pay more to stay there. $80k isn't much of a budget for buying and fixing, so you could look into getting a seller credit in exchange for a higher purchase price in order to finance a rehab. A lot of experienced investors say they still find good deals on the MLS, but you might consider driving for dollars and checking foreclosure listings. Look for properties where you could hack the floorplan to add rooms/bathrooms, thereby forcing the appreciation even more. Even better would be one with a big drive way or extra parking space where you could buy a car or RV for car sharing through Turo or some such, as another stream of income. Lots of people do very well from that, and it's not complicated.

    Lastly, consider trading up your current place for a bigger one and house hacking. 

    There are 4 benefits to this investment strategy. First, you can use a conventional mortgage, which have the lowest interest rates. Second, primary residences require a lower percentage down payment. Third, any profits from selling the property aren’t taxed. And fourth, you'll learn many of the important skills that you'll need for future investments (analyzing properties, evaluating a property's 'best use', working with realtors & mortgage brokers, screening and managing tenants, hiring & working with contractors, understanding tax implications, etc). You have to live somewhere, anyway, so why not make your home a part of your investment strategy?

    If the reason you're not currently house hacking is because you don't have any spare rooms, then consider trading up to a bigger place, or see if you can hack your floorplan to add an extra room. The cost of buying a bigger place could be offset by the rent that you'll get. Renting by the room is usually more profitable than getting a house with a rental suite. Also, some lenders will even include rents as part of your mortgage calculations. Later, if you sell, you’ll get the full benefit of a higher price for having bought a bigger place, along with any value appreciation. Bonus: look for a house with a hackable floorplan for adding rooms/bathrooms - ie. forced appreciation, in investor speak.

    Other than money, there are a few things to consider when house hacking. Most important is the fact you’ll be living with your tenant (surprise! you are now a landlord). This can actually be a benefit if you did a good job screening the applicants – you might even become friends, or a nightmare if you didn’t. Your best friend may not be your best tenant if they have different standards of cleanliness, for example. Screening tenants and then dealing with them after they move in is both part art and part science, and it’s a critical skill to learn if you plan on owning rental properties as part of your investment strategy. Having bad tenants can ruin your investment goals, especially at the beginning of your investing journey when you only have a few properties and not much cashflow to fix any problems they might cause.

    Taxes are another important consideration for house hacking. Rental income must be declared and is taxable. Unfortunately, any expenses associated with improving/maintaining the property for rental purposes aren’t deductible since it is your primary residence. However, if you later sell the property for more than you purchased it, either due to appreciation or improvements, you won’t be taxed on the profit because it’s your primary residence.

    Serial house hacking is a great way to build your real estate portfolio, but it does involve the inconvenience of having to move frequently. The idea is that you start with one house hack to save for either a bigger property or an additional property as your new primary residence, move in to that one and house hack it for a year or more, and then do it again. The amount of time you have to stay depends on your local tax rules, and the amount of money that can be saved from hacking that property. Your old properties are then reclassified as investments, against which you can deduct appreciation and other expenses, like mortgage interest and repairs. David likes to say he thinks everyone should be house hacking at least one property every year, which of course assumes that rents and/or appreciation from existing properties are enough to fund your next purchase.

    So, it's not impossible to invest in the area you want with the budget you have, but it will take a bit more time and effort, and maybe an adjustment to your strategy. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 941 votes
    4y

    @Khai Hong You're absolutely right, a big CAPEX can wipe out all your cash flow. I 100% agree cash flow is a defensive mechanism when you're just starting out, once you get into the large commercial deals or triple-net leases you can start counting on that more and even use it as a living. For me, forcing cash flow in a market with rapid appreciation is the best way to hold onto the property and reap the benefits of the equity over the long-term. Great post!

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2022 · 68 posts · 52 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Khai Hong:

    HI @Akshay Bhaskaran, all is not lost :)

    If you follow @Conner Olsen's example, and assuming that $1700 is net of all real and budgeted expenses then you'd be up about $500 in your case. Not bad, miles better than being negative, but a big repair or replacement could wipe out a year or more of income. However, as David Greene from the BP podcasts like to advise, while cashflow is important when you're starting out, appreciation is the key to building real wealth in the long run (The Real Estate Investing Podcast | BiggerPockets). So as long as you're not counting on that cashflow for living, and you can accept net zero or a little bit negative in some years, then I think it's valid to count on appreciation for your area. Considering that Samsung and Tesla are already there, chances are good that other high paying companies will follow, more people will come and home values will appreciate. Be conservative with your underwriting and assume 5% appreciation, and include the other expenses listed on BP calculator. And also include the fact that rents will increase every year.

    Another thing that David advises is to find the worst property in the best area that you can afford, and fix it up to a standard that will attract high quality tenants/guests who are willing to pay more to stay there. $80k isn't much of a budget for buying and fixing, so you could look into getting a seller credit in exchange for a higher purchase price in order to finance a rehab. A lot of experienced investors say they still find good deals on the MLS, but you might consider driving for dollars and checking foreclosure listings. Look for properties where you could hack the floorplan to add rooms/bathrooms, thereby forcing the appreciation even more. Even better would be one with a big drive way or extra parking space where you could buy a car or RV for car sharing through Turo or some such, as another stream of income. Lots of people do very well from that, and it's not complicated.

    Lastly, consider trading up your current place for a bigger one and house hacking. 

    There are 4 benefits to this investment strategy. First, you can use a conventional mortgage, which have the lowest interest rates. Second, primary residences require a lower percentage down payment. Third, any profits from selling the property aren’t taxed. And fourth, you'll learn many of the important skills that you'll need for future investments (analyzing properties, evaluating a property's 'best use', working with realtors & mortgage brokers, screening and managing tenants, hiring & working with contractors, understanding tax implications, etc). You have to live somewhere, anyway, so why not make your home a part of your investment strategy?

    If the reason you're not currently house hacking is because you don't have any spare rooms, then consider trading up to a bigger place, or see if you can hack your floorplan to add an extra room. The cost of buying a bigger place could be offset by the rent that you'll get. Renting by the room is usually more profitable than getting a house with a rental suite. Also, some lenders will even include rents as part of your mortgage calculations. Later, if you sell, you’ll get the full benefit of a higher price for having bought a bigger place, along with any value appreciation. Bonus: look for a house with a hackable floorplan for adding rooms/bathrooms - ie. forced appreciation, in investor speak.

    Other than money, there are a few things to consider when house hacking. Most important is the fact you’ll be living with your tenant (surprise! you are now a landlord). This can actually be a benefit if you did a good job screening the applicants – you might even become friends, or a nightmare if you didn’t. Your best friend may not be your best tenant if they have different standards of cleanliness, for example. Screening tenants and then dealing with them after they move in is both part art and part science, and it’s a critical skill to learn if you plan on owning rental properties as part of your investment strategy. Having bad tenants can ruin your investment goals, especially at the beginning of your investing journey when you only have a few properties and not much cashflow to fix any problems they might cause.

    Taxes are another important consideration for house hacking. Rental income must be declared and is taxable. Unfortunately, any expenses associated with improving/maintaining the property for rental purposes aren’t deductible since it is your primary residence. However, if you later sell the property for more than you purchased it, either due to appreciation or improvements, you won’t be taxed on the profit because it’s your primary residence.

    Serial house hacking is a great way to build your real estate portfolio, but it does involve the inconvenience of having to move frequently. The idea is that you start with one house hack to save for either a bigger property or an additional property as your new primary residence, move in to that one and house hack it for a year or more, and then do it again. The amount of time you have to stay depends on your local tax rules, and the amount of money that can be saved from hacking that property. Your old properties are then reclassified as investments, against which you can deduct appreciation and other expenses, like mortgage interest and repairs. David likes to say he thinks everyone should be house hacking at least one property every year, which of course assumes that rents and/or appreciation from existing properties are enough to fund your next purchase.

    So, it's not impossible to invest in the area you want with the budget you have, but it will take a bit more time and effort, and maybe an adjustment to your strategy. 

     Thanks much for the very detailed explanation, really appreciate your help and efforts!

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 680 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    Hello fellow investors,

    Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

    1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

    2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

    3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

    4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

    5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

    6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

    Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

    Basis of my assumption: 

    My house was $320,000 in 2020.
    Now $550,000 in 2022

    Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 

     @Akshay Bhaskaran, I need more information to give you an accurate response. First and foremost, utilize your profile as a way to introduce yourself on Biggerpockets. Maybe state your real estate experience, and goals.  

    On the surface what you proposed does not look like a great plan.   Several things stick out that don't seem sound.  Home Equity Loan at 4.24% seems very low unless this is an adjustable teaser rate to get you sucked in.  Be careful there.   You have a good amount of equity but probably not all profit.  If you were to sell your house outright, your gains should be tax free.(live in it for 2 out of 5 years Yada Yada Yada) .......good!  The reason I need more information is that if I am going to give a green light to a modified version, I would need to know more about you.  

    Your current plan without modification is a no-go for me for the reasons @Joe Villeneuve mentioned above. I am also not a fan of renting your house out and buy another SFH either. The question I would ask, if you were to buy a property for rental would you have bought the house you live in for that reason. In most cases that is a no.

    Now if you live alone or with a significant other with no children or children under 5 then you might consider this option. Sell your home. Look for a duplex in the local area Hutto, Taylor, Elgin. Live on one side, rent out the other. You may not be totally cash flow positive but you should be less out of pocket than you are now with your SFH. Once you get established and build some experience you might be ready to either buy another duplex or move out years later back into a SFH and hopefully when that occurs your rents on the duplex would be a net positive cash flow.

    Buying an investment property with negative cash flow puts a lot of financial pressure on you.  This market is peaking and starring at a correction that could possibly be significant.  Taylor is on the rise and has potentially a lot of upside.  Getting your duplex by being an owner occupant will be far easier that doing it in reverse as a pure investment.  Good luck.

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2022 · 68 posts · 52 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Joe Scaparra:
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    Hello fellow investors,

    Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

    1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

    2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

    3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

    4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

    5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

    6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

    Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

    Basis of my assumption: 

    My house was $320,000 in 2020.
    Now $550,000 in 2022

    Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 

     @Akshay Bhaskaran, I need more information to give you an accurate response. First and foremost, utilize your profile as a way to introduce yourself on Biggerpockets. Maybe state your real estate experience, and goals.  

    On the surface what you proposed does not look like a great plan.   Several things stick out that don't seem sound.  Home Equity Loan at 4.24% seems very low unless this is an adjustable teaser rate to get you sucked in.  Be careful there.   You have a good amount of equity but probably not all profit.  If you were to sell your house outright, your gains should be tax free.(live in it for 2 out of 5 years Yada Yada Yada) .......good!  The reason I need more information is that if I am going to give a green light to a modified version, I would need to know more about you.  

    Your current plan without modification is a no-go for me for the reasons @Joe Villeneuve

    Thanks for the great advice. Here's a short introduction about myself:
    I'm 29 years old, just got married, and no kids yet. Me and my wife live in Hutto in our primary SFH. So, renting out other rooms is not a great option.

    I'm a newbie investor and this will be my first investment property if I get through it. What do you think about some properties in Atlanta, that might give you a positive cash flow? Do you think for the first investment, it is safer to stick local to where you live? 

  • Rental Property Investor · Centreville, VA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 799 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:
    Quote from @Joe Scaparra:
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    Hello fellow investors,

    Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

    1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

    2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

    3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

    4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

    5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

    6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

    Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

    Basis of my assumption: 

    My house was $320,000 in 2020.
    Now $550,000 in 2022

    Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 

     @Akshay Bhaskaran, I need more information to give you an accurate response. First and foremost, utilize your profile as a way to introduce yourself on Biggerpockets. Maybe state your real estate experience, and goals.  

    On the surface what you proposed does not look like a great plan.   Several things stick out that don't seem sound.  Home Equity Loan at 4.24% seems very low unless this is an adjustable teaser rate to get you sucked in.  Be careful there.   You have a good amount of equity but probably not all profit.  If you were to sell your house outright, your gains should be tax free.(live in it for 2 out of 5 years Yada Yada Yada) .......good!  The reason I need more information is that if I am going to give a green light to a modified version, I would need to know more about you.  

    Your current plan without modification is a no-go for me for the reasons @Joe Villeneuve

    Thanks for the great advice. Here's a short introduction about myself:
    I'm 29 years old, just got married, and no kids yet. Me and my wife live in Hutto in our primary SFH. So, renting out other rooms is not a great option.

    I'm a newbie investor and this will be my first investment property if I get through it. What do you think about some properties in Atlanta, that might give you a positive cash flow? Do you think for the first investment, it is safer to stick local to where you live? 


    Out of state investing has never been easier. You have the right idea about getting started. I would suggest exploring turnkey companies in the mid west that might help you close on a cash flowing SFH. I used that strategy to buy in Cleveland and now I am able to scale to 12 doors in the past 2 years. Feel free to reach out and we can discuss

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 680 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    I'm 29 years old, just got married, and no kids yet. Me and my wife live in Hutto in our primary SFH. So, renting out other rooms is not a great option.

    I'm a newbie investor and this will be my first investment property if I get through it. What do you think about some properties in Atlanta, that might give you a positive cash flow? Do you think for the first investment, it is safer to stick local to where you live? 

    You are the perfect person to buy a duplex as your first property because you want your privacy in you own unit, especially with your wife. I agree. I don't know how long you have owned your SFH.  If it has been two years so that you have both equity and tax free gains then I would sell and get into a duplex!!!!!!!!!!!

    I have been tempted to look out of state to invest, but quickly come to my senses!!!  I live in TEXAS, one of the best states for real estate.  Yes the Austin MSA is expensive but too many other areas are not.  Plus, YOU LIVE IN TEXAS!  Easier to manage your properties.  My son owns a duplex in Taylor!  Stay focused on Texas and map out when you can sell your SFH and get your first duplex.  Once you get one, you can't stop it is addicting!!!!  Cheers!
  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Joe Scaparra:
    Quote from @Akshay Bhaskaran:

    Hello fellow investors,

    Need some serious advise on my real estate investment strategy

    1. Currently having around $300,000 in equity from my primary home (in Hutto) 

    2. Of this, I’m planning to take out a Home Equity loan for around $80,000 at 4.24% interest rate, and put it as a down towards a rental investment.

    3. For the rental investment, I’m targeting Hutto, Taylor, and Pflugerville— to attract Samsung and Tesla crowd. House range I’m looking at are around $350,000-$400,000

    4. Now, my monthly payment comes to around $3300-$3500 (PITI, HOA, Landlord insurance, property mgt fee, HE loan payment etc). Rental average is around $2200-$2500 in this area.

    5. So I’m in a negative cash flow of $1000-$1200 per month. So even my NIAF is negative .

    6. BUT.. BUT.. I’m “assuming”  the property prices will appreciate at-least 10% over the next 5 years in Hutto or Taylor. So, at the end of 5 years, after I sell the property, my final net is positive and it’s close to 80% ROI. 

    Is this a good strategy? To bite the bullet with a negative cash flow? Am I assuming too much on the appreciation? Also, the schools are not so great here in the area? Should I re-consider rental over here?

    Basis of my assumption: 

    My house was $320,000 in 2020.
    Now $550,000 in 2022

    Target areas: Hutto, Pflugerville, Taylor 

     @Akshay Bhaskaran, I need more information to give you an accurate response. First and foremost, utilize your profile as a way to introduce yourself on Biggerpockets. Maybe state your real estate experience, and goals.  

    On the surface what you proposed does not look like a great plan.   Several things stick out that don't seem sound.  Home Equity Loan at 4.24% seems very low unless this is an adjustable teaser rate to get you sucked in.  Be careful there.   You have a good amount of equity but probably not all profit.  If you were to sell your house outright, your gains should be tax free.(live in it for 2 out of 5 years Yada Yada Yada) .......good!  The reason I need more information is that if I am going to give a green light to a modified version, I would need to know more about you.  

    Your current plan without modification is a no-go for me for the reasons @Joe Villeneuve mentioned above. I am also not a fan of renting your house out and buy another SFH either. The question I would ask, if you were to buy a property for rental would you have bought the house you live in for that reason. In most cases that is a no.

    Now if you live alone or with a significant other with no children or children under 5 then you might consider this option. Sell your home. Look for a duplex in the local area Hutto, Taylor, Elgin. Live on one side, rent out the other. You may not be totally cash flow positive but you should be less out of pocket than you are now with your SFH. Once you get established and build some experience you might be ready to either buy another duplex or move out years later back into a SFH and hopefully when that occurs your rents on the duplex would be a net positive cash flow.

    Buying an investment property with negative cash flow puts a lot of financial pressure on you.  This market is peaking and starring at a correction that could possibly be significant.  Taylor is on the rise and has potentially a lot of upside.  Getting your duplex by being an owner occupant will be far easier that doing it in reverse as a pure investment.  Good luck.

    What does what you just wrote after my name have to do with what you are referring to (what I wrote) above?
  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 680 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    What does what you just wrote after my name have to do with what you are referring to (what I wrote) above?

    @Joe Villeneuve, Nothing to answer your question. I should have started a new paragraph as I have corrected it above so as not to be confusing. Joe, there are many people giving advice, I was agreeing with yours and not agreeing with others that suggest he rent out his current home and buy another SFH home. That is what I was referring to after I mentioned you.

  • Bay area, CA · Member since 2021 · 383 posts · 306 votes
    4y

    Dave Ramsey chronically says that numbers don't talk about risk, especially % ROIs, future expected gain value, etc, etc. 

    A lot can happen in 5 years to those areas, or house, or economy, or to your life. It's highly not recommended to do what you are mentioning. 

    Rather, getting cash flowy assets generating more cash flow than your interest rate HELOC, would be one of the best ways to proceed.

    $80,000 can provide $500 to $700 cash flow a month beyond other benefits if done right. 

    I am out of state investor for cash flor for many years now, based out of California. 

  • Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area · Member since 2016 · 234 posts · 103 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:

    Terrible strategy.  Assumed appreciation can't be counted on. Past appreciation rates have no bearing on any future ones.  Besides, you can't substitute gains from appreciation against negative CF.  Cash flow is real...appreciation is an imaginary number that can only be real when turned into cash...as in selling the property.  Appreciation isn't cash.

    Negative CF means you are adding that negative CF to your cost of the property.  Positive CF means whatever cash you put into the deal (DP) is the ONLY cost to the property.  $12-15k negative CF/year is actually an exponential loss.  If you used that money to reinvest with, instead of spending it as negative CF, you would get a "real" cash return out of it.

     @Akshay Bhaskaran I agree with @Joe Villeneuve's comment and other folks here. I had a post here in BP and mentioned that I am helping family hunt down some deals in the Austin tech market area, those areas that you are looking is also my hunting ground. The negative cash flow of $1K is accurate and in my opinion is a lot to bleed. In addition to this, you are taking a loan against your home, theoretically you're risking your castle, your home for a negative cash flow deal hoping for appreciation that may or. may not happen, adding some bad macro economic in the backdrop. I don't think that is advisable, this is NFA DYOR of course. Good luck. 

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Joe Scaparra:

    What does what you just wrote after my name have to do with what you are referring to (what I wrote) above?

    @Joe Villeneuve, Nothing to answer your question. I should have started a new paragraph as I have corrected it above so as not to be confusing. Joe, there are many people giving advice, I was agreeing with yours and not agreeing with others that suggest he rent out his current home and buy another SFH home. That is what I was referring to after I mentioned you.

    Ahhhhh.  Thank-you for clearing that up.  For a minute there I thought the lack of sleep was causing me to have a brain freeze.
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.