Real Estate history set to repeat itself

Real Estate history set to repeat itself

Irvine, CA · Member since 2016 · 545 posts · 614 votes

First off, I’m a true believer in the saying “If you have a dream in life, you should seek and follow the path to obtain it!”

In late 2006 we saw the real estate bubble come into play and wreak havoc on the housing industry. The main focus of the cause was targeted at the financial industry for its relaxed lending requirements, banking regulations, and “predatory” lending practices. Most people seem to avoid the conversation about all the Real Estate risk takers that played the biggest part in the housing crisis.

A few years before the bubble burst I was encountering real estate investors, house flippers, and buy-and-hold participants everywhere I went, my waitress at The Cheesecake Factory, the two McDonalds employees talking deals on their lunch break, the clerk at the grocery store, everyone everywhere appeared to be a real estate investor in one form or another getting a piece of the housing boom.

The underlining problem I noticed was during the rush to get into the RE industry most of the people capitalizing in the industry never learned the basics of RE investing and were simply doing what their friends, neighbors, coworkers, or online postings told them to do to get a piece of the pie. A majority of all those RE acquisitions were closed without basic RE fundamentals as part of the deal causing them to play a major part in the housing crisis as they were not structured properly and/or in fragile portfolios that quickly crumbled with the first sign of trouble.

Flash forward 10 years to 2016, minus the banking industry’s participation, we are seeing the same industry practices that played a major role in the last bubble. I’m encountering wholesalers, real estate investors, house flippers, and buy-and-hold participants everywhere using the same knowledge base that played a part in the last crisis.

Here’s why I say history will repeat itself. An example can be found in the BP community when there’s not one day that goes by that I don’t see a post along the lines of:

“Help, I have a property under contract, I need help with the next step”

“I have a house under contract, what’s the best way to get financing?

"I got a cash advance on 5 credit cards for the EMD, I need help with financing the deal"

We’ve all seen these post and there are some far scarier than these. While I would never discourage anyone from trying to close a deal, I’m simply pointing out the similarities of 2006 in which the industry was saturated with far more uniformed participants trying to get rich quick than those who know what they’re doing when structuring deals.

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Rental Property Investor · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2016 · 396 posts · 995 votes
10y

So according to you, the primary cause of the crash was relaxed lending requirements by banks, and now even though that primary cause no longer exists, you think there is going to be a crash because a lot of people are interested in real estate?  That doesn't even make sense.

People are naturally attracted to whatever makes money.  If the stock market were to see annual gains of 20%+ for a few years then a large number of people would stop being Saturday afternoon landlords and start being 'stock gurus'. 

The only thing that can cause an actual housing market crash, is for people to start defaulting en masse on their loans, which can happen only if the loan is unstable, or the job market is unstable.  In 2008 this happened because banks were giving anyone and everyone a loan regardless of the credit score, down payment, or income.  They gave loans to people who couldn't possibly repay those loans, especially when their adjustable rate mortgages increased.  Another scenario is if we experience another great depression, or prolonged recession.  People who were previously financially stable can become unstable if the economy sucks and they can no longer find a job. 

Having a large number of people interested in RE will certainly drive the price up, and this increase in price will create more people who want to invest, and this hype will further drive prices up.  This is what happened in 2008.  The difference is banks in 2008 kept giving ridiculous loans that they are no longer giving, which by default creates a realistic limit to how high prices can go.  We have seen prices go up by large amounts following the crash, and this increase will likely start to flatline a little bit at some point, or possibly even recede slightly, but this will not cause a crash.  So long as the underlying loan is solid, and the job market is solid, then real estate as a whole is solid.

We've seen one crash in the last XX years, and suddenly everyone becomes Nostradamus and feels the next one is right around the corner.  Will the market flatline or possibly have a market correction in the next 1-10 years?  -Possibly.  But I am worried about this about as much as I'm worried about what Kim Kardasian just posted on twitter.  A market correction doesn't scare me in the slightest because I invest correctly from day one, with built in equity and cashflow so that I can easily survive during the down years, and thrive during the up years.  I'm nowhere near close to cashing out and retiring, so I am actually hopeful for a market correction because all of my current assets will still produce, and my future purchases will be made at a discount.

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  • Specialist · Carrollton, TX · Member since 2016 · 145 posts · 100 votes
    10y

    Great insight! I don't see as much caution as is warranted by long boom that we experienced. 

  • Engineer · Portland, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Bear and bull markets create their own investor momentum. This is true of the stock market as well as real estate. The mid to end of the cycle is usually signaled when the "dumb money" rolls in. That is people investing based on market momentum and hype rather than for fundamental mathematical realities. I don't know if we are close to seeing the end of the cycle but I'm seeing more "dumb money" investors pop up every month.
  • Irvine, CA · Member since 2016 · 545 posts · 614 votes
    10y

    @Krishna Chava I agree 100%, However I do see some caution among the experienced investors, It's those new to the industry throwing caution to the wind in an effort to get rich quick. I see a lot of post mentioning being new to the industry and having a goal of 20 houses within year 1 of their portfolio and their starting out with no money at all.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    10y

    I don't see it at least in the DC market. 10 years ago all the offers I was writing were for zero down loans for people with no money, credit or income. These days all the offers I'm writing are for all cash from high net worth individuals. 

    That being said if there were a crash, it is nothing to be afraid of. It merely creates amazing buying oppurtunities.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    well you can thank the internet  sites like BP  late night television evangilist RE guru's webinars podcasts etc etc.. facebook.. linkdin  etc etc. 

    and the burning desire from many to get rich as absolutely quick as possible and some irrational idea that real estate is the way.. take the bar to entry is non existent and you have a lot of beginners.

    the reason you have all this wholesaler activity is because the market has strengthened and they can't buy a home like they could pre 08 only way to jump in with no money is try to pimp deals.

  • Irvine, CA · Member since 2016 · 545 posts · 614 votes
    10y

    @Russell Brazil I see the next crash as a great buying opportunity as well.

    In the DC and surrounding M/V areas the deals are pretty strong, I see a lot of what's happening in Baltimore to be a different story since that market isn't as strong as the MD areas closer to DC.

    Where would you say the dividing line is in MD where property values will be affected the most in a downturn? We all know areas like Rockville, Silver Springs, Bethesda, etc.... wont be an issue but going further out towards Baltimore there must be a line in which the fundamentals of some areas will cause them to be affected more in a down cycle.

    I was in CA in the last down cycle so I don't know how this area was truly affected. 

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ray Johnson:

    @Russell Brazil I see the next crash as a great buying opportunity as well.

    In the DC and surrounding M/V areas the deals are pretty strong, I see a lot of what's happening in Baltimore to be a different story since that market isn't as strong as the MD areas closer to DC.

    Where would you say the dividing line is in MD where property values will be affected the most in a downturn? We all know areas like Rockville, Silver Springs, Bethesda, etc.... wont be an issue but going further out towards Baltimore there must be a line in which the fundamentals of some areas will cause them to be affected more in a down cycle.

    I was in CA in the last down cycle so I don't know how this area was truly affected. 

     Well DC and the higher income suburbs don't have as dramatic of swings. (Montgomery, Fairfax Arlington Counties) Sure prices dropped and bounced back in those areas....but when you go over to PG County, they are nowhere close to having recovered from the market crash while the other areas in general are back to 2006 levels.(Many gentryfyimg parts of DC are well beyond 2006 levels)

    Higher income areas with concentrations of wealth tend to carry less risk while lower and middle income areas carry more risk for significant drops in property values. But honestly I think what happened a decade ago was a once in a lifetime event. Sure prices go up and down over time, but not to the levels we saw in the short time frame we saw.

    Peter Lynch once said that more money has been lost by people trying to anticipate market corrections than has actually been lost in market corrections.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Russell Brazil  definitely regionalized... in my two markets were I build new construction 

    Charleston SC and Portland Oregon.. long gone is the no money down buyer.. they still happen I just sold one in Charleston on a VA loan but its a 350k house.

    and we get the occasional FHA

    but on the subdivision I just built in Portland in 2016  27 new homes priced from 330 to 400k... ( entry level )  to first time move up.

    My wife is my broker ( always recommend anyone getting in the business to have their own license) I had her run a report on financing and what was used.

    4 sold for cash

    1 VA

    3 FHA minimum down

    19 sold conventinal with 10% or more down.

    IN charleston other than the one VA loan same thing some cash a few FHA majority conventional

    so to speak to your points we have a much stronger buying segment than pre 08.. and I am sorry for those that have crappy credit and can't buy right now.. but they simply need to clean up their act. this attitude that every american deserves to own a home is flawed thinking.. every american who can manage thier personal credit and keep good an stable jobs.. deserves a home if they so choose.. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ray Johnson:

    First off, I’m a true believer in the saying “If you have a dream in life, you should seek and follow the path to obtain it!”

    In late 2006 we saw the real estate bubble come into play and wreak havoc on the housing industry. The main focus of the cause was targeted at the financial industry for its relaxed lending requirements, banking regulations, and “predatory” lending practices. Most people seem to avoid the conversation about all the Real Estate risk takers that played the biggest part in the housing crisis.

    A few years before the bubble burst I was encountering real estate investors, house flippers, and buy-and-hold participants everywhere I went, my waitress at The Cheesecake Factory, the two McDonalds employees talking deals on their lunch break, the clerk at the grocery store, everyone everywhere appeared to be a real estate investor in one form or another getting a piece of the housing boom.

    The underlining problem I noticed was during the rush to get into the RE industry most of the people capitalizing in the industry never learned the basics of RE investing and were simply doing what their friends, neighbors, coworkers, or online postings told them to do to get a piece of the pie. A majority of all those RE acquisitions were closed without basic RE fundamentals as part of the deal causing them to play a major part in the housing crisis as they were not structured properly and/or in fragile portfolios that quickly crumbled with the first sign of trouble.

    Flash forward 10 years to 2016, minus the banking industry’s participation, we are seeing the same industry practices that played a major role in the last bubble. I’m encountering wholesalers, real estate investors, house flippers, and buy-and-hold participants everywhere using the same knowledge base that played a part in the last crisis.

    Here’s why I say history will repeat itself. An example can be found in the BP community when there’s not one day that goes by that I don’t see a post along the lines of:

    “Help, I have a property under contract, I need help with the next step”

    “I have a house under contract, what’s the best way to get financing?

    "I got a cash advance on 5 credit cards for the EMD, I need help with financing the deal"

    We’ve all seen these post and there are some far scarier than these. While I would never discourage anyone from trying to close a deal, I’m simply pointing out the similarities of 2006 in which the industry was saturated with far more uniformed participants trying to get rich quick than those who know what they’re doing when structuring deals.

    History repeats itself sort of. There are markets going down right now. 50% of them are in the northeast and IL. This is just a historical trend no one sees changing. As far as macro and micro market goes a certain level of over leveraged financing is normally one element that exist in bubbles. That does not exist today generally speaking. So if your taxi driver is talking REI he probably has good credit and a way to pay for the mortgage.

  • Rental Property Investor · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2016 · 396 posts · 995 votes
    10y

    So according to you, the primary cause of the crash was relaxed lending requirements by banks, and now even though that primary cause no longer exists, you think there is going to be a crash because a lot of people are interested in real estate?  That doesn't even make sense.

    People are naturally attracted to whatever makes money.  If the stock market were to see annual gains of 20%+ for a few years then a large number of people would stop being Saturday afternoon landlords and start being 'stock gurus'. 

    The only thing that can cause an actual housing market crash, is for people to start defaulting en masse on their loans, which can happen only if the loan is unstable, or the job market is unstable.  In 2008 this happened because banks were giving anyone and everyone a loan regardless of the credit score, down payment, or income.  They gave loans to people who couldn't possibly repay those loans, especially when their adjustable rate mortgages increased.  Another scenario is if we experience another great depression, or prolonged recession.  People who were previously financially stable can become unstable if the economy sucks and they can no longer find a job. 

    Having a large number of people interested in RE will certainly drive the price up, and this increase in price will create more people who want to invest, and this hype will further drive prices up.  This is what happened in 2008.  The difference is banks in 2008 kept giving ridiculous loans that they are no longer giving, which by default creates a realistic limit to how high prices can go.  We have seen prices go up by large amounts following the crash, and this increase will likely start to flatline a little bit at some point, or possibly even recede slightly, but this will not cause a crash.  So long as the underlying loan is solid, and the job market is solid, then real estate as a whole is solid.

    We've seen one crash in the last XX years, and suddenly everyone becomes Nostradamus and feels the next one is right around the corner.  Will the market flatline or possibly have a market correction in the next 1-10 years?  -Possibly.  But I am worried about this about as much as I'm worried about what Kim Kardasian just posted on twitter.  A market correction doesn't scare me in the slightest because I invest correctly from day one, with built in equity and cashflow so that I can easily survive during the down years, and thrive during the up years.  I'm nowhere near close to cashing out and retiring, so I am actually hopeful for a market correction because all of my current assets will still produce, and my future purchases will be made at a discount.

  • San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 786 posts · 717 votes
    10y

    The underlying reason for the 2008 crash was not simply the subprime market. The real reason was long-term low interest rates. The government by manipulating markets to keep interest rates are creating artificial market bubbles.

    Subprime was just the instrument for money to circulate into the real estate

    Hedge funds are the new instrument that replaces the subprime. The money doesn't come in through subprime now but we have now replaced the instrument with hedge funds.

    @Russell Brazil 2008 was not a once in a lifetime anomaly. With long term interest rates now the new norm, asset bubbles will continue to get worse about every 18-years. The next huge crash between 2022 and 2028 will be much worse than the 2008 crash. 

    How do I know interest rates will remain low indefinitely? It's simple math. Unlike the Reagon/Volcker years, we now have an $18 trillion deficit and our country can no longer afford to pay 20% interest payments on $18 trillion as the $3.6 trillion would exceed our tax revenues. 

    Expect triple taxes in the future (which is my concern with making money in traditional IRA versus Roth) and expect perpetual low interest rates and thus perpetual asset bubble crashes.

    I have seen the trend and that's why I only to be investing in real estate as a hedge fund manager. I see an opportunity to continue to get credit facilities from investment banks at 3.25% based on libor to get a blended cost of capital under 5%. With such cheap capital, it's is much easier to arbitrage investment opportunities than paying a blended cost of capital of 20% to hard money lenders. In today's hot market, you need to get capital cheaper to reduce one's holding costs.

  • Turlock, CA · Member since 2016 · 77 posts · 15 votes
    10y

    I think it depends on where you live. Where I live, I don't think the market will top out until around 2019-2022 or so. Obviously no ones crystal ball works too well, so I could totally be off. We base it off of the historical data and the real estate cycle in our area and what normally happens around here. My husband and I know that when the Bay Area peaks out and they start moving toward the valley (where I am located), the valley has a little bit longer before it peaks. Also when new construction starts building like crazy is another sign around here. We are in the expansion phase where I live. It is definitely harder to find deals around here though. Below is the historical data 👇:

  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    10y

    Something we haven't seen a lot of, that I 100% fully expected to see, was certain 2005-2007 mortgages blowing up in people's faces, causing large amounts of distressed sales. 

    Example:

    • $450k loan amount, originated in 2006.
    • ARM.
    • Minimal down.
    • 10 year interest only period, because it's an ARM it was down to 3.75% as of 2015. $1406 mortgage payment. In fact, in the entire 10 year period from 2006 to 2016, the payment has only ever gone down. It's never gone up on the family, and their budget isn't designed to accommodate such a thing ever happening.
    • 20 year amortization period. Blows up to $2668 per month right in 2016. Oh, crap crap cap! This typical American family does not have an extra $1,200 per month in their budget!
    • So far, by some amount of amazing fortune, I've been able to qualify every single family that had this structure of mortgage, that has called me, for the refinance that (in this scenario) at least dropped it down to ~$2080 per month. Finding $600 extra per month is a lot easier than finding $1200 per month extra!
    • Fun fact: some hugely disproportionate percentage of ^these^ phone calls are from folks who it is clear speak English as a second language. I wasn't doing mortgages back then when all this toxic lending was going on, but this makes it 100% clear to me that immigrants were targeted with these garbage loan programs. Given that most native-born Americans can't even spell "amortization," what are the odds that these immigrant ESL families really understood what they were signing? Not a lot, IMO.

    But there must, in fact, be people who can't afford $2668 per month, and also can't qualify to refinance to drop it to $2080 per month. 

    So the question I have for the minds in this thread: why haven't we read about a lot of these 10 year i/o, 20 year amortization, ARMs blowing up in people's faces, leading to foreclosure? Is it just because it takes a few years to get foreclosed upon, meaning we will read about the 2015 explosions resulting from 2005 mortgages in 2018 or 2019?

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix AZ / Kendallville, IN · Member since 2016 · 293 posts · 149 votes
    10y

    Here is an interesting article about the Phoenix market. 

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/48/topics/356...

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Chris Mason and with the new disclsoures which are as confusing as the old one's people just sign and never read the small print.

    you just had the  " what is it going to cost me" sentiment everything else was irrelevant.

    markets moving up in the last 4 years have bailed many out as well. were they are no longer underwater

  • Chris MasonPro Member
    Moderator
    Lender · CA · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    10y

    @Jay Hinrichs,

    Really, you think the current disclosures are hard to understand? 

    I used to have to set aside 45-60, each deal, just to explain WTF the old disclosures actually meant. 

    Now the CFPB has my back and I can just link them to this and set aside 10 minutes per. 

    I like the new disclosures. I also really like page 2 box C, "services you can shop for," because now I'm not expected to justify fees that I have literally zero control over. 

    Page 1 has the little "funny business" column that (for the overwhelming majority of my loans, at least) just reads "no" all the way down. I like it. They could make it so that anything other than "no" in the "funny business" column was bright red, but that's nitpicking because a single "yes" in a sea of "no" is going to stand out anyways. I used to lose business once in a while because a competitor had a "better rate," but the consumer didn't realize it was an ARM - so I guess someone that likes to sneak people into ARMs would/should prefer the old disclosures.

    Good point about the values going up. Most people with one of those toxic loans that can't refinance, could just sell. 

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    well you can thank the internet  sites like BP  late night television evangilist RE guru's webinars podcasts etc etc.. facebook.. linkdin  etc etc. 

    and the burning desire from many to get rich as absolutely quick as possible and some irrational idea that real estate is the way.. take the bar to entry is non existent and you have a lot of beginners.

    the reason you have all this wholesaler activity is because the market has strengthened and they can't buy a home like they could pre 08 only way to jump in with no money is try to pimp deals.

     Bingo!

  • Investor · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2016 · 970 posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    would definitely not look at a forum to get your crash predictions...people are generally pretty clueless and will post nonsense if its free to post. Just cause someone wants to buy a house doesn't mean they can. banks and investors know that too and will not just lend to anyone who 1. doesn't have money 2. doesn't have experience.

  • Investor · Lakewood, OH · Member since 2016 · 203 posts · 191 votes
    10y

    @Ray Johnson

    I partially agree with you...   For one, the postings you've mentioned drive me nuts on BP. BP can be a funny place. At times, it feels like it's a race to buy the worst houses as fast as possible. And then there's all the no money down postings. I'm not a fan.

    But back to the housing bubble...   You're referring to the supposed investors in 2006 as part of the causation of the boom and subsequent bust of real estate assets. While you're right in some regard, I'd say the speculators were just the tools on which banks built their toxic balance sheets.

    Here are the 5 pieces of the housing bubble machine:

    1. United States Government
      • Bill Clinton rewrites community reinvestment act in 1995 basically making mortgages available to most borrowers
    2. Financial Institutions 
      • Originating NINJA Loans like crazy to repackage into mortgage backed securities (MBS) and sell to investors
      • ESPECIALLY SUB PRIME MORTGAGES which generate the best yield 
      • Banks sold these off of balance sheet within 30 days of origination so as to never experience the penalty of booking a high risk loan (no collections expense and no charge off)
    1. Federal Reserve
      • Pinned interest rates at zero bound to help recover from internet bubble
      • Created a lot of leverage in capital markets to buy MBS
      • Incentives for consumers to spend on housing and HELOCs
    2. Hedge Funds buying Mortgage Backed Securities
      • Hedge funds looking for yield had a great demand for MBS, especially on subprime debt (nobody defaults on mortgages, right?)
      • Banks force NINJA loans through origination process to fill MBS products with subprime debt so the can sell them to hedge funds and investors at a large premium
    3. United State consumers/real estate speculators 
      • People AKA sheeple see real estate assets increasing 20%+ YOY so like fools they jump into the market

    All of this is the TIP of the iceberg, but you get the idea. Of all the player that fueled the bubble, I'd say that consumers and speculators had a lot less to do with it than regulators, banks, hedge funds and the government.

    I work in a large bank. I can tell that you NINJA loans do not exist. Nor does the level of demand for MBS or credit default swaps.

    Additionally, mortgage debt owed by U.S. household was > $12 Billion before the housing crisis in 07/08. Now mortgage debt owed by U.S. households is about $8.4 Billion.

    I do agree with you that there are a lot of extremely reckless "investors" out there. But based on all of the factors of the previous housing bubble, I'd like to think that we're a long way off from reaching another crisis of that magnitude. 

    Thanks,

    Cary

  • Investor · Lakewood, OH · Member since 2016 · 203 posts · 191 votes
    10y

    Man the BP bullets also drive me crazy! Haha...  If you read through the bullets you'll still get my point though @Ray Johnson

  • Investor · Smyrna, GA · Member since 2014 · 96 posts · 72 votes
    10y

    What people don't realize about the real estate crash and the participants is that even if you took all the sub-prime loans out there at the time and declared them worthless-the losses wouldn't be worse than a bad day at the stock market. What caused the ripples that spread out throughout the banking and market making industry? Leverage.  The securitization of the mortgage backed bonds, false security of bogus ratings and inadequately funded "insurance products" like credit default swaps, let the originators of these toxic instruments take on a thousand dollars of profit for a dollars worth of capital. Unfortunately, that leverage worked the other way too.Ever wonder why a company like Bear Stearns, with $50 Billion worth of mortgage backed assets on the books went broke virtually overnight? That's right-that unexpected turn in leverage. What makes that scenario much less likely to happen today are the reluctance of the banks and lenders to leverage themselves that much, the forcing, by regulation, to prevent them from getting too leveraged, and the collapse of those toxic assets that used to be traded around like a game of musical chairs, with the value only set by whoever was dumb enough to pay it, in the hopes there would be a bigger fool down the road. 

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Greeley, CO · Member since 2013 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ben Zimmerman:

    So according to you, the primary cause of the crash was relaxed lending requirements by banks, and now even though that primary cause no longer exists, you think there is going to be a crash because a lot of people are interested in real estate?  That doesn't even make sense.

    People are naturally attracted to whatever makes money.  If the stock market were to see annual gains of 20%+ for a few years then a large number of people would stop being Saturday afternoon landlords and start being 'stock gurus'. 

    The only thing that can cause an actual housing market crash, is for people to start defaulting en masse on their loans, which can happen only if the loan is unstable, or the job market is unstable.  In 2008 this happened because banks were giving anyone and everyone a loan regardless of the credit score, down payment, or income.  They gave loans to people who couldn't possibly repay those loans, especially when their adjustable rate mortgages increased.  Another scenario is if we experience another great depression, or prolonged recession.  People who were previously financially stable can become unstable if the economy sucks and they can no longer find a job. 

    Having a large number of people interested in RE will certainly drive the price up, and this increase in price will create more people who want to invest, and this hype will further drive prices up.  This is what happened in 2008.  The difference is banks in 2008 kept giving ridiculous loans that they are no longer giving, which by default creates a realistic limit to how high prices can go.  We have seen prices go up by large amounts following the crash, and this increase will likely start to flatline a little bit at some point, or possibly even recede slightly, but this will not cause a crash.  So long as the underlying loan is solid, and the job market is solid, then real estate as a whole is solid.

    We've seen one crash in the last XX years, and suddenly everyone becomes Nostradamus and feels the next one is right around the corner.  Will the market flatline or possibly have a market correction in the next 1-10 years?  -Possibly.  But I am worried about this about as much as I'm worried about what Kim Kardasian just posted on twitter.  A market correction doesn't scare me in the slightest because I invest correctly from day one, with built in equity and cashflow so that I can easily survive during the down years, and thrive during the up years.  I'm nowhere near close to cashing out and retiring, so I am actually hopeful for a market correction because all of my current assets will still produce, and my future purchases will be made at a discount.

    I was going to say the same thing. In the OPs post he uses examples of RE investors not being able to get financing and reaching out for help. Before the crash they probably could have gotten financing because banks were so crazy, and they would not even be looking for help. The fact they are asking those questions and having trouble with financing shows the system has changed. 

    The problem now is not crazy demand due to loose lending, it is low supply due to no building. I don't see a crash coming either. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Lincoln, NE · Member since 2013 · 584 posts · 353 votes
    10y

    I don't see a crash coming either.

    There are a lot of misconceptions about what caused the financial and housing crash in 2007-08.  It wasn't low interest rates as some on this thread have suggested.  It was pretty simple.  Banks developed the ability to sell mortgages by creating Collateralized Debt Obligations.  One type of collateral used in creating these securities was mortgages.  Thus the Mortgage Backed Security.  Now that a bank didn't have to hold a mortgage it originated, it could take more risk in that mortgage, then sell that risk to an investor in the form of a security.  This, in and of itself, didn't create a real problem.  If a MBS full of junk sub-prime mortgages was given a C- rating from the ratings agencies, then they would have to be priced at a sufficient discount to attract buyers and there wouldn't be as much demand for them in the secondary market.  However, junior analysts at ratings agencies didn't look very deeply into these instruments and reasoned away the risk by saying that a large enough pool would mean that even if 1 or 2 borrowers defaulted, the overall security would still be fine.  Therefore they could confidently give it an investment grade rating.  A deep and wide market for sub-prime MBS's was created and that meant banks could lend to anyone with no approval criteria and unload the risk quickly and easily.  Rinse and repeat.  When these loans got so bad that people actually started defaulting in mass, anyone holding the bag got hurt.  Investment banks with MBS's in their portfolios and insurance companies.

    The uptick in the market today is not caused by the same forces.  What I'm seeing is many asset classes have lousy yields because the Fed has kept rates artificially low for way too long.  I mean, really, how can the Fed honestly say they are not political and leave rates unchanged in Sept?  Anyway, because investors can't find a decent yield anywhere else, they are turning to real estate.  At some point when interest rates become more normal, those investors will potentially unwind those investments in real estate and put them to work elsewhere.  When they do, that will take some of the pressure off real estate prices, but it won't be a crash.

    As long as you bought right and have a solid investment, that kind of shift should have virtually no effect on you

  • Troy GandeeBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 795 posts · 454 votes
    10y

    I agree with some of these other folks. I don't foresee a crash. I think we will eventually see a major stumble, but no crash. I think the housing market will stay fair unless there is some major economic or World event that affects the overall economy negatively. The Charleston area is booming right now and I do think there is a frightening amount of construction here, but there are still droves of people moving to the area, so it should shake out. Eventually people are going to stop moving here because we aren't prepared for this population increase and then we can try to get back to normal. Almost all of my retail clients are using conventional loans. Some use FHA's but those are millennial buyers and FHAs are designed for that type of consumer. Most of my investor clients use cash. I've only helped one investor that wanted to use financing for a rental this year.

  • Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 380 posts · 157 votes
    10y

    Agreed.   I know it's suspect when Realtor's say the future is healthy, but I think it's true and I'm holding my properties and in fact just bought another buy n hold rental here in Charleston.    A minor correction I can see happening but without the "black swan" type of event, I think we're on an upward trajectory for another 5 years or more.   

    Honestly, here in Charleston I'm more concerned about rising ocean levels than anything else.   

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