Housing Crash in 2018-2019

Banker · Saint Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 45 posts · 6 votes

Does anyone for see another housing crisis like what we had back in 2007. I heard economist Harry Dent speak on this about 3 years ago in Atlanta. He predicted a housing market crash sometime between 2016-2019.

Let me know your thoughts.

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Account Closed

Specialist · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes

Originally posted by @James Cannon:

I can guarantee that between now and 2068 the housing market with either go up or go down.

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Steve K.
Honolulu, HI · Member since 2017 · 247 posts · 315 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

Originally posted by @Steve K.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this is who all those syndicators lost so many apartments in 07 to 2011 they went vacant past the break even point could not feed them could not maintain them and they folded..
Were these apartment syndications across all price points? or were they mostly higher end properties?
I am curious which end of the pricing spectrum did better during the downturn
all across the spectrum but somewhat regional with Vegas taking some major hits PHX and GA and some other markets..
The of course you have the never ending cycle of those that buy D and C in rough areas thinking THEY can turn them around only to have the cycle repeat.. Just drive through Memphis you will see Boarded up Multi.. same with the south side of Chicago.
mahalo (thanks), jay
I always enjoy reading your posts
aloha
steve
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Steve K.:

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Steve K.:

Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

this is who all those syndicators lost so many apartments in 07 to 2011 they went vacant past the break even point could not feed them could not maintain them and they folded..
Were these apartment syndications across all price points? or were they mostly higher end properties?
I am curious which end of the pricing spectrum did better during the downturn
all across the spectrum but somewhat regional with Vegas taking some major hits PHX and GA and some other markets..
The of course you have the never ending cycle of those that buy D and C in rough areas thinking THEY can turn them around only to have the cycle repeat.. Just drive through Memphis you will see Boarded up Multi.. same with the south side of Chicago.
mahalo (thanks), jay
I always enjoy reading your posts
aloha
steve
sure thing I will be staying at the Nauru towers end of April if you want to grab a coffee
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Erik W.
Real Estate Investor · Springfield, MO · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
8y
One more small tid bit. One of the thing driving up prices for INVESTMENT real estate is....dah, dah, dah...INVESTORS! We've had 8-10 years to recover out collective senses and people once again realize that real estate is a great long-term investment. The stock market has been bullish lately, but over the past 2 months it has corrected considerably. Investors need somewhere to park all that capital, and REI is looking more attractive as stock market P/Es get too high and real cash on cash returns (dividends, DRIPs) get lower. So, we are in some ways victims of our own success.
Many of the investors I see on BP have only gotten into the game in the last 10 years. We welcome then, and then we also want to smack their hands for "stealing" all our good deals.... it's a double edged sword I suppose. Also, foreign money is piling into the USA RE markets as they look for better / safer returns.
All this is to say, I'm consolidating my position presently. Fixing up units to be nicer / sturdier / more attractive to better tenants. Paying down debt. Stockpiling cash. When the next down turn occurs, I hope to be ready to pick up some low-hanging fruit. I wasn't far enough along last time to really make a killing, but this time around I'm hoping to do better.
Ironic, isn't it? We like up markets (appreciation of property value, increased rents), but we also like down markets (cheap inventory and labor). Learning how to use real estate to profit in either scenario is part of the fun.
5 Reply
Ryan Evans
Rental Property Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2016 · 653 posts · 769 votes
8y
All I know is that whatever happens, I'm gonna keep buying for cash flow so I can cover some vacancy and rent decreases as a worst-case scenario.
0 Reply
Victor S.
WorldWide · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8y
How does that saying go? Economists predicted 25 of the last 3 recessions, or something like that.
4 Reply
Joe Lambert
Omaha, NE · Member since 2017 · 50 posts · 29 votes
8y
Autonomous vehicles in my opinion will disrupt real estate, but that will be a long drown out process. Sharp interest rate change could cause a crash too. Outside of that, inventories are so low that it's either buy at these prices or live out of your suitcase.
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Joe SplitrockPro Member
Moderator
Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
8y
The crash is near! Everyone knows the market goes in cycles. We are at the peak. We are due for a correction. Prices can't go up forever. Real estate goes on 8 year cycles, so we ware overdue for a crash. Interest rates are going up! I mean who will buy a house at 5.5% or 6% interest - that is crazy. Look at the stock market, that tells us everything we need to know. Plus some super educated economist predicted we are due for a crash. Robert Kiyosaki agrees and he is that Rich Dad Poor Dad guy, so he must be right.
My advice to established investors, sell everything you own. New investors, wait until after the crash to get in. I am just going to stock pile cash and wait until it all crashes, then I will buy up everything with no competition.
When will it happen? Very soon. We are not far off now. You heard it all here first.
(this is sarcasm)
10 Reply

Terry Lao

Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes

@Bill B.

Here is my strategy to time the market. The Case Shiller top 20 metros, shows major cities like Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Atlanta, etc. For the month of Dec'17, the year to year change in market value for ALL 20 cities were in the positive. If there was a decrease in ONE major city, it might be nothing or might be the beginning of downturn. If there was a decrease in FIVE major cities then beginning of down turn. This will be sort of a warning signal for me.

Below is the list for Dec'17, and notice NONE were negative.

Terry

December 2017	December/November	November/October	1-Year
Metropolitan Area	Level	Change (%)	Change (%)	Change (%)
Atlanta	140.52	0.3%	0.1%	5.4%
Boston	204.75	-0.2%	-0.1%	5.5%
Charlotte	151.30	0.1%	-0.3%	5.9%
Chicago	138.53	-0.6%	-0.5%	2.6%
Cleveland	117.34	-0.3%	-0.5%	3.5%
Dallas	180.72	0.1%	0.1%	6.9%
Denver	203.93	0.6%	0.3%	7.4%
Detroit	117.51	0.0%	-0.2%	7.1%
Las Vegas	170.86	0.8%	0.7%	11.1%
Los Angeles	272.05	0.7%	0.7%	7.5%
Miami	227.96	-0.1%	0.2%	3.6%
Minneapolis	162.92	-0.4%	-0.1%	5.2%
New York	195.34	0.0%	0.0%	5.4%
Phoenix	173.82	0.2%	-0.1%	5.6%
Portland	223.29	0.2%	0.0%	6.8%
San Diego	246.29	0.2%	-0.3%	7.4%
San Francisco	252.51	0.5%	1.4%	9.2%
Seattle	232.50	0.6%	0.2%	12.7%
Tampa	203.08	0.3%	1.0%	6.2%
Washington	221.49	-0.2%	0.1%	2.8%
Composite-10	218.41	0.2%	0.3%	6.0%
Composite-20	204.45	0.2%	0.2%	6.3%
U.S. National	196.23	0.2%	0.2%	6.3%

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Justin Koehn
Real Estate Agent · Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 47 posts · 23 votes
8y
Car Crash in 2018?- Likely. Probably a few million.
Plane Crash in 2018? - Possible, but as likely.
House Crash in 2018? Can't see how that's possible.
0 Reply
Matt R.
Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
8y
Dent has been saying everything is going to crash year after year. After 10 years in a row being 100% wrong, I guess at a certain point he has lost credibility with his forecasts perhaps. We can have corrections still.
1 Reply
Chris Martin
Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
8y
Where is @Diane G. ?
3 Reply
Account Closed
Earth · Member since 2017 · 297 posts · 187 votes
8y
House crash is near?

Hahaha...

My dream of stock crash is the same as your housing crash dream.

I don’t own any stock now. Therefore, I always have a dream of stock crash, so I can use my cash to buy a lot of stock at discount price, like google, amazon, apple at half price.

I truly wish that the stock market can be crash like year 2009 stock crash. Dow Jones dropped to 6000 point. Stock Bank of America dropped from $50 to only $5. Stock casino Venetian dropped from $133 to only $1. Stock Citigroup dropped from $50 to only $1.

Can anybody tell me if my stock crash dream will come truth? My stock crash dream is the same as other people housing crash dream that house price will drop dramatically to year 2010 price level.

I want to buy the stock Citigroup at $1 per share. Bank of America at $5 per share. Sands Venetian at $1, stock Amazon at $50 per share. I am waiting for Dow Jones to drop back to 6000 point. Will it happen?

I doubt my dream will come truth...
Haha...
Corrections will come. But not tomorrow, not this year.
I doubt Dow Jones will drop back to 6000 point...
I doubt the house price will drop back to year 2010 price level...
0 Reply
John P.
Investor · Vacaville, CA · Member since 2016 · 433 posts · 249 votes
8y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

House crash is near?

Hahaha...

My dream of stock crash is the same as your housing crash dream.

I don’t own any stock now. Therefore, I always have a dream of stock crash, so I can use my cash to buy a lot of stock at discount price, like google, amazon, apple at half price.

I truly wish that the stock market can be crash like year 2009 stock crash. Dow Jones dropped to 6000 point. Stock Bank of America dropped from $50 to only $5. Stock casino Venetian dropped from $133 to only $1. Stock Citigroup dropped from $50 to only $1.

Can anybody tell me if my stock crash dream will come truth? My stock crash dream is the same as other people housing crash dream that house price will drop dramatically to year 2010 price level.

I want to buy the stock Citigroup at $1 per share. Bank of America at $5 per share. Sands Venetian at $1, stock Amazon at $50 per share. I am waiting for Dow Jones to drop back to 6000 point. Will it happen?

I doubt my dream will come truth...
Haha...
Corrections will come. But not tomorrow, not this year.
I doubt Dow Jones will drop back to 6000 point...
I doubt the house price will drop back to year 2010 price level...
A lot of us invest in stocks. How about a little less negative energy toward our investments!! :)
0 Reply
Jeffrey Holst
Investor · Chattanooga, TN · Member since 2016 · 676 posts · 543 votes
8y
I think its impossible to predict crashes with accuracy. I know many people claiming to have stayed out of the market in 2007/8 but they do this in retrospect. I could claim this special genius. I did my first flip in 2006 and then didnt buy anything again until 2010 was I able to predict the crash? Absolutely not I just got lucky, I was busy building my law practice and just didnt get around to buying again until 2010. Buy safely cash flowing properties and you will survive the crash, in my opinion trying to time market is very dangerous. I know people who are holding cash and have been since 2013 because they are sure a crash is coming. Personally I wish I could buy at 2013 prices right now and I bet they do to if they are honest about it.
1 Reply
Account Closed
Specialist · Paradise Valley, AZ · Member since 2018 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

Originally posted by @James Cannon:
Does anyone for see another housing crisis like what we had back in 2007. I heard economist Harry Dent speak on this about 3 years ago in Atlanta. He predicted a housing market crash sometime between 2016-2019.

Let me know your thoughts.
I can guarantee that between now and 2068 the housing market with either go up or go down.
I found the "Sign" for the housing market
0 Reply
Terry Lao
Professional · Anaheim, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 686 votes
8y
Case Shiller 20 city index just came out for Jan'18. The headline is " JANUARY HOME PRICES MAINTAIN RAPID CLIMB". You can read the whole article in below link.
I'm a numbers nerd, and this post is for now way off. Saying housing crash, housing crash, without facts or current statistical data is nonsense. Similar to the saying, a broken clock is correct twice a day. I know at some point housing will have a correction. The Case Shiller is one of the better statistical and analytical tools out there.
Terry
https://247wallst.com/housing/2018/03/27/january-h...
0 Reply
Scott W.
Real Estate Investor · chicago, IL · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 231 votes
8y
lol this is posted every year about a housing crash. truth is, nobody knows. history shows the recent one was the worst in almost a century so the chances of something of that magnitiude again are very slim.
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