Corona Virus Cases are getting worst! should I buy now or wait?
Member since 2018 · 73 posts · 13 votes
Corona Virus Cases are getting worst! should I buy now or wait?
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Attorney · Wilsonville, OR · Member since 2017 · 504 posts · 411 votes
6y@Anne Williams go about ur ordinary business and crunch ur numbers.
Just to put into perspective, Swine Flue, remember that? let me give you some statistics. “How many of you even remember the swine flu 2009, 2010? I don’t remember it. I don’t remember a thing about the swine flu. I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel.
Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized.
Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu.
There wasn’t any media panic. No political weaponizing. We went through a much worse situation with the Swine flue. And then we also had Ebola. And that’s just 10 years ago, 300,000 hospitalized. So we overcame it. We overcame Ebola. This is gonna end, it’s gonna pass.
we’re gonna rebound from this, and when we do, you had better get ready and hold on tight, because this market’s gonna rebound. The people who are selling right now and getting out of it are panicking, and they don’t want to be selling. Everybody’s doing this from a very defensive posture and point of view. this market is gonna rebound like you can’t believe because the people who have been selling off want to get back in it. And we are taking economic procedures right now that are going to serve to further reignite the economy when all this passes.
don’t forget, ’cause I’m sure everybody has, swine flu outbreak 2009, 2010, right here, United States of America, 60 million Americans infected. you have to visualize this, 300,000 hospitalized. We’re nowhere near 300,000 hospitalized with coronavirus. I mean, we’re not even close to it. In fact, worldwide we don’t even have 300,000 cases, worldwide, of the coronavirus. Three hundred thousand hospitalized in the United States alone. You don’t even remember it.
February 12th, 2010, archives, Reuters news: “Swine Flu Has Killed Up to 17,000 in U.S.” February 12th, 2010: “H1N1 Swine Flu Has Killed as Much as 17,000 Americans Including 1,800 Children – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday the swine flu pandemic put as many people in the hospital as during the normal influenza season, but most were younger adults and children instead of the elderly.” And it was during the months when usually very little or no flu is circulating, the CDC said. “The CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of the 2009 swine flu occurred between April 2009 and January 16th, 2010.” So it’s maybe more than 60 million, 84 million cases of swine flu.
So the swine flu got the young, 84 million cases, 1,800 children dead, 300,000 total infected, 13,000 adults. That’s a February 12th, 2010, archives at Reuters. Seventeen thousand Americans dead. We don’t have 17,000 people dead worldwide from the coronavirus, folks. And you know what the recovery rate for the coronavirus is, according to the Johns Hopkins University website?
Johns Hopkins University website shows that the recovery rate is — Sixty-five percent.
“Can anybody tell me the number of coronavirus deaths in the United States?” (interruption) You looked it up, did you? You had to look it up because you didn’t know off the top of your head.
The one thing missing in all of this panic-driven coronavirus news is what? The number of deaths in the United States!”
About 60% of the death toll has happened in one place, and I don’t mean one city. I mean in one place in one city. Thirty-nine 39. Do you know that 26 of those 39 deaths have occurred in a nursing home in Seattle, Washington state? You take the 26 deaths out of the equation from the nursing home in Washington state and how many deaths are we talking about? 13! And yet we are reacting this way? We’re wrecking the United States economy! Yet go back. The swine flu: 18,000 people dead, 60 million infected, 300,000 hospitalized in 2009-2010.
55 Replies
- Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes6y
@Anne Williams
Right now I think it’s a perfect time to buy. The buyer pool has dropped because of fear. Sellers will be more motivated to sell. I’d go all out since many are afraid
- Renter · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 278 posts · 71 votes6y
this Black Swan is 10x or more bigger than the
Global Financial Crisis because we owe $300T
in debt and unfunded liabilities and the only
answers so far are accelerating debt through
free money like 0% taxes 0% loans QE printing, etc.
last time around RE dropped 40-60% depending on
the area and on the West Coast the high-tech areas
like San Fran and Seattle had areas only dropping 30%
as of today, Wall St. is down about 20% and could easily
go bear into 50% then junk bonds, fallen angels, layoffs,
bankruptcies, bail outs, and millions without any paychecks,
that's when RE foreclosures will be back and you'll see bargains :)
the best easiest thing you can do everyday is Google "layoffs" "bankruptcy"
and start studying different regions based on workers that won't be able
to pay their mortgage...then you know you've found a buyer's market
and you can pounce...in the mean time build credit, hoard cash :)
I think the big deals are coming and we're all going to party like it's 2011 again soon.
- Investor · Greater Metro Atlanta · Member since 2019 · 3 posts · 5 votes6y
Hey, @Anne Williams! I see either option as a win. Sellers are starting to panic and as the news gets worse staying cash heavy will only boost our acquisition potential for great deals. Either way - this is no time for paralysis by analysis! Take care and talk soon!
- 6yTheresa HarrisPro MemberMember since 2019 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
@Anne Williams Stop believing everything you hear on the news. When looking at houses, do the same as you always do. Run the numbers and see if they work. Interest rates are still really low. If you wait for a better deal to come along, you will be sitting on the sidelines.
- Rental Property Investor · Torrance, CA · Member since 2016 · 724 posts · 1k+ votes6y
@Jim K.
Man I hope you’re right. I’m ready to party.
- Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes6y
@Account Closed Bury your head in the ground is fine with me. Prices have been sky rocketing for the past 9 years so this "epidemic" is a break in the market. It'd be foolish to wait for the market to heat back up but if you want to wait David I don't mind ;)
Originally posted by @Anne Williams:
Hello BP,
SO as I am searching for property, I am wondering how this will affect prices, and the overall state of real estate.
Should I move forward and purchase or hold off for potentially better deals?
I would think prices could adjust enough to potentially get a wider selection of better deals as this circumstance kind of just started. Each location will be different as far as what is "better" so not fiscal advice that way, just an observation. Price points might be a bigger factor, where as 1 mil property is now 800k, vs 50k is now 48k. Perhaps keep searching so you can recognize values as they become available.
Good luck with your search!
- 6yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Jim K.:
I think the big deals are coming and we're all going to party like it's 2011 again soon.
on a contrarian view point maybe there is a flight to real estate and price hold and go up.. I had two hedge funds go into contract on a few of our assets at full price close in 10 days.. had a fixer in Portland that we got 7 offers on with 4 over ask. all in the last 5 days.
also its not like turning a faucet on or off.. especially in Mortgage states were foreclosures are measured in years as opposed to months like Deed of trust states or deeds to secure debt ( GA) which can go through the system in a matter of 3 to 4 months.
so it will really depend on jobs and how rentals perform.. the max leverage I got to own 50 doors with no real equity and minuscule cash flow per door per month.. those folks could be in for a rough ride if they have some vacancy issues and are not properly capitalized.
We could see that In MF also since most buy those units and max leverage to juice paper returns it does not take a staggering vacancy rate to spell trouble for some of those properties.
Its going to be interesting.. Cant recall his name but there is a gentlemen on BP who has talked about buying all these hotels the last year.. thats a space that could see some turmoil and turnover.
- Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes6y
Schools and business are implementing protocols for facility closures and remote work (i.e. one team member tests positive, family member tests positive, etc.). Testing is currently extremely limited (in the US); therefore, the current number of confirmed cases is lower than reality. Over the next few weeks, testing and the number of confirmed cases will grow exponentially. Those positive tests will engage those school and business protocols...and facility closures will be common (many already are). This will have a profound impact on the economy...already has due to full country closures in China and Italy. The economic impact is already here (for at least 2020)...regardless of where the virus goes.
- UT · Member since 2014 · 14 posts · 4 votes6y
@Pat L. - Yes, however, there is a vaccine for TB, Hep B, Whooping cough etc. First world countries don't worry about Maralria, Rotovirus.
We are only a few weeks into COVID19 and it's affecting everyone (so it seems, I'm no expert!). I think that is why the distress.
I'm like you, however - not too worried at all!
Flights to Hawaii are $200 right now.. might just go take an extended vacation and wait!
- Attorney · Wilsonville, OR · Member since 2017 · 504 posts · 411 votes6y
@Anne Williams go about ur ordinary business and crunch ur numbers.
Just to put into perspective, Swine Flue, remember that? let me give you some statistics. “How many of you even remember the swine flu 2009, 2010? I don’t remember it. I don’t remember a thing about the swine flu. I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel.
Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized.
Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu.
There wasn’t any media panic. No political weaponizing. We went through a much worse situation with the Swine flue. And then we also had Ebola. And that’s just 10 years ago, 300,000 hospitalized. So we overcame it. We overcame Ebola. This is gonna end, it’s gonna pass.
we’re gonna rebound from this, and when we do, you had better get ready and hold on tight, because this market’s gonna rebound. The people who are selling right now and getting out of it are panicking, and they don’t want to be selling. Everybody’s doing this from a very defensive posture and point of view. this market is gonna rebound like you can’t believe because the people who have been selling off want to get back in it. And we are taking economic procedures right now that are going to serve to further reignite the economy when all this passes.
don’t forget, ’cause I’m sure everybody has, swine flu outbreak 2009, 2010, right here, United States of America, 60 million Americans infected. you have to visualize this, 300,000 hospitalized. We’re nowhere near 300,000 hospitalized with coronavirus. I mean, we’re not even close to it. In fact, worldwide we don’t even have 300,000 cases, worldwide, of the coronavirus. Three hundred thousand hospitalized in the United States alone. You don’t even remember it.
February 12th, 2010, archives, Reuters news: “Swine Flu Has Killed Up to 17,000 in U.S.” February 12th, 2010: “H1N1 Swine Flu Has Killed as Much as 17,000 Americans Including 1,800 Children – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday the swine flu pandemic put as many people in the hospital as during the normal influenza season, but most were younger adults and children instead of the elderly.” And it was during the months when usually very little or no flu is circulating, the CDC said. “The CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of the 2009 swine flu occurred between April 2009 and January 16th, 2010.” So it’s maybe more than 60 million, 84 million cases of swine flu.
So the swine flu got the young, 84 million cases, 1,800 children dead, 300,000 total infected, 13,000 adults. That’s a February 12th, 2010, archives at Reuters. Seventeen thousand Americans dead. We don’t have 17,000 people dead worldwide from the coronavirus, folks. And you know what the recovery rate for the coronavirus is, according to the Johns Hopkins University website?
Johns Hopkins University website shows that the recovery rate is — Sixty-five percent.
“Can anybody tell me the number of coronavirus deaths in the United States?” (interruption) You looked it up, did you? You had to look it up because you didn’t know off the top of your head.
The one thing missing in all of this panic-driven coronavirus news is what? The number of deaths in the United States!”
About 60% of the death toll has happened in one place, and I don’t mean one city. I mean in one place in one city. Thirty-nine 39. Do you know that 26 of those 39 deaths have occurred in a nursing home in Seattle, Washington state? You take the 26 deaths out of the equation from the nursing home in Washington state and how many deaths are we talking about? 13! And yet we are reacting this way? We’re wrecking the United States economy! Yet go back. The swine flu: 18,000 people dead, 60 million infected, 300,000 hospitalized in 2009-2010.
- Real Estate Agent · Maui, HI · Member since 2019 · 35 posts · 18 votes6y
I am a Realtor on Maui and we are all very busy with people purchasing here - doesn't seem to be slowing down. Life is good in the islands!
- Real Estate Agent · Maui, HI · Member since 2019 · 35 posts · 18 votes6y
I think you meant Waikiki? Yes 90% of the people are on Oahu (so it tends to be crowded) and it makes sense if people are trying to do the social distancing thing.
- UT · Member since 2014 · 14 posts · 4 votes6y
@Brian Bradley outstanding post!
Looks like we’re neighbors. Do you ever go to our NWreia meetups?
Perhaps our paths will cross.
- Specialist · Plano, TX · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 861 votes6y
@Anne Williams As previously mentioned here, now is a good time to buy. Check out this article on more information on how this is affecting borrowing costs for homeowners. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/federal-reserve-makes-emergency-rate-cut-amid-coronavirus-fears/
- Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
I think single family houses and condos will fall in price within next few months. 2-4 units atleast locally are bought low down from millennials who are less affected by stock market fluctuations and have solid salary pay. With lower rates I think 2-4 units will continue to appreciate.
I am a realtor closed 17 mil last two years. Right now multi units are hotter then they were even a few months ago. Multiple offers, etc.
- Real Estate Broker · Roseburg, OR · Member since 2016 · 29 posts · 13 votes6y
@Anne Williams We can always find an excuse not to take action. There are good deals in every part of the market cycle, keep looking for deals throughout this Corona Virus scare, and if you find a good enough deal, make it happen! 😁👍
Originally posted by @Brian Bradley:
@Anne Williams go about ur ordinary business and crunch ur numbers.
Just to put into perspective, Swine Flue, remember that? let me give you some statistics. “How many of you even remember the swine flu 2009, 2010? I don’t remember it. I don’t remember a thing about the swine flu. I went back and looked at the stats and I was stunned. Are you ready for this? The swine flu outbreak in this country in 2009 and 2010, 60 million Americans were infected. Do you remember that? Sixty million were infected. Dr. Siegel.
Do you know how many people were hospitalized in 2009-2010 with the swine flu? Three hundred thousand were hospitalized. So 60 million people infected, 300,000 hospitalized.
Sixty million Americans infected, 300,000 hospitalized. The numbers with the coronavirus are not even close. They are barely a fraction of a percentage compared to the swine flu.
There wasn’t any media panic. No political weaponizing. We went through a much worse situation with the Swine flue. And then we also had Ebola. And that’s just 10 years ago, 300,000 hospitalized. So we overcame it. We overcame Ebola. This is gonna end, it’s gonna pass.
we’re gonna rebound from this, and when we do, you had better get ready and hold on tight, because this market’s gonna rebound. The people who are selling right now and getting out of it are panicking, and they don’t want to be selling. Everybody’s doing this from a very defensive posture and point of view. this market is gonna rebound like you can’t believe because the people who have been selling off want to get back in it. And we are taking economic procedures right now that are going to serve to further reignite the economy when all this passes.
don’t forget, ’cause I’m sure everybody has, swine flu outbreak 2009, 2010, right here, United States of America, 60 million Americans infected. you have to visualize this, 300,000 hospitalized. We’re nowhere near 300,000 hospitalized with coronavirus. I mean, we’re not even close to it. In fact, worldwide we don’t even have 300,000 cases, worldwide, of the coronavirus. Three hundred thousand hospitalized in the United States alone. You don’t even remember it.
February 12th, 2010, archives, Reuters news: “Swine Flu Has Killed Up to 17,000 in U.S.” February 12th, 2010: “H1N1 Swine Flu Has Killed as Much as 17,000 Americans Including 1,800 Children – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Friday the swine flu pandemic put as many people in the hospital as during the normal influenza season, but most were younger adults and children instead of the elderly.” And it was during the months when usually very little or no flu is circulating, the CDC said. “The CDC estimates that between 41 million and 84 million cases of the 2009 swine flu occurred between April 2009 and January 16th, 2010.” So it’s maybe more than 60 million, 84 million cases of swine flu.
So the swine flu got the young, 84 million cases, 1,800 children dead, 300,000 total infected, 13,000 adults. That’s a February 12th, 2010, archives at Reuters. Seventeen thousand Americans dead. We don’t have 17,000 people dead worldwide from the coronavirus, folks. And you know what the recovery rate for the coronavirus is, according to the Johns Hopkins University website?
Johns Hopkins University website shows that the recovery rate is — Sixty-five percent.
“Can anybody tell me the number of coronavirus deaths in the United States?” (interruption) You looked it up, did you? You had to look it up because you didn’t know off the top of your head.
The one thing missing in all of this panic-driven coronavirus news is what? The number of deaths in the United States!”
About 60% of the death toll has happened in one place, and I don’t mean one city. I mean in one place in one city. Thirty-nine 39. Do you know that 26 of those 39 deaths have occurred in a nursing home in Seattle, Washington state? You take the 26 deaths out of the equation from the nursing home in Washington state and how many deaths are we talking about? 13! And yet we are reacting this way? We’re wrecking the United States economy! Yet go back. The swine flu: 18,000 people dead, 60 million infected, 300,000 hospitalized in 2009-2010.
Well put! The only difference between then and now is the technology and media at fingertips of anyone and everyone. Not to mention the exploitation of all of it.....
@Brian Bradley I was surprised to learn those numbers too. I wonder if the hysteria didn't take hold because we were in the middle of the great recession which caused its on hysteria. The first cases were reported in the late Mar/early Apr when over 4m jobs went poof.
- 6yJon MuldoonPro MemberBerlin, MA · Member since 2015 · 6 posts · 10 votes
@Brian Bradley The comparison to the swine flu well optimistic, is not accurate. Swine flu had an R0 (essential calculation for how easily the disease spreads) 1.4 and 1.6. The coronavirus is about 2.2. For comparison, the Spanish flu was estimated between 1.8 and 2.6. Meaning, the coronavirus is more contagious the the Swine flu.
Some other math:
Swine Flu hospitalization rate: 300,000/60,000,000=.5%
Coronavirus hospitalization rate: 15% with 5% in ICU (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/) Because the hospitalization rate is so high, hospitals will likely become overwhelmed leading to a higher death rate. Speaking of...
Swine Flu Death Rate: 18,000/60,000,000= .03% (the flu is about to be .1%)
Coronavirus death rate: 3.4% with the gigantic caveat that many cases are asymptomatic. There are estimates the actual death rate will settle around 1%.
This is not my opinion. It is the math. However, these numbers can change with effective management (which the US has not had). If you were looking for something optimistic, we should follow South Korea and Singapore's example which can be read here: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html and https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/03/12/npr-singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not
Singapore has a highly concentrated pop'n of about 6 million not to mention HK with 7-8 million packed in like sardines. So just think about it, any strategy taken by them has a distinct/significant advantage, mathematically/statistically/logistically over anything that the USA can possibly achieve in the realm of sequestering/mitigating/testing 300+ million. So it's tough to hold them up as beacons of success & then deride the work being done in the USA as being insignificant & incompetent.
Then again for some of us...
- 6yJon MuldoonPro MemberBerlin, MA · Member since 2015 · 6 posts · 10 votes
That’s an interesting point Pat. But it actually speaks to how effective those countries have been at stopping the spread. Every expert recommends social distancing to stop the spread of the virus. That’s very hard to achieve when you are packed in like sardines, yet they did it! So there’s hope.
The big difference is South Korea test 10,000 people a day. The US has tested 8,000 total despite having a substantially bigger population; which is less than ideal. But hopefully we’ll turn it around.
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