Fed cuts rates by .5%
Michael BaumPro Member
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votesFed cuts rates by .5%
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Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
2y@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
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- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
Economy weaker than you thought? Dow is above 42K (record) Economy booming. Rates going down.
For argument sake, let's say the DOW is 40k.
If the USD looses half it's value, thus loosing half it's purchasing power, what do you think the DOW would change in response?
Do you think DOW would go down, sideways, or up????
And yes, in full clarity, this is a "loaded question".
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
Half its value relative to what currency exactly? All western currencies have solvency and debt issues. As for the BRICS currency, do you think the world will trust a currency primarily managed by 2 authoritarian regimes with declining demographics and economic power? And several other countries with major corruption, social issues and questionable property rights laws?
Brazil has massive resource potential but like the US, they can't get out of their own way. The Bank of Brazil expropriated money from its own depositors back in the 90s (IIRC, I could be off on the decade). They have an expression: "Brazil is the country of the future and always will be".
The economic elites in the eastern hemisphere invest their profits in Western banks and real estate for a reason. - Rental Property Investor · south carolina and michigan · Member since 2023 · 348 posts · 226 votes2y: 0 I must be on wrong thread, I'm on burger and Ramen Lol, nonetheless, it has went up too lol
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
costco is a great indicator of inflation on grocery items.. Fresh cracked dungess crab was 25 for a one pound container for years.. it flew up to 50 bucks.. there is no shortage of dungess crab in the Pacific oceans .. its down to 35 now.. but still high.. the meats the same way most all went up at least 50% and have not dropped.. chilean seabass was 15 bucks a pound went to 25k and has stayed there.. I am in KC last few days gas is 2.75 a gallon.. gas is still 4.50 a gallon in OR WA CA if not higher in some spots..Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
Quote from @Andrew Syrios:
I definitely thought they would cut rates but that's more than expected. Will be good for real estate but might indicate the economy is weaker than we had thought. And I thought it was rather weak to begin with.
Weaker than who thought?
Politicians and federal agencies were lying about the strength of the economy. Everyone visiting the grocery store knows it. They are just now getting around to telling the truth.
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
Well I sure hope we don't see that much of a drop by the end of the year.
Like @Collin Hays said, inflation is far from over. Originally they said they would do anything and everything to get inflation at or below 2%. All of a sudden we get a 50 basis point cut?That is inflationary. Either there is something in the indicators we don't know about or...you give it your best guess.
I don't want to see a recession (full bore). It won't do anyone any good.
The fight is business life cycle and unemployment. @Carlos Ptriawan and I were discussing this at the top of the year. The Fed's objective will change, and it did.
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
Economy weaker than you thought? Dow is above 42K (record) Economy booming. Rates going down.
That's the market, not the economy.
- Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
Lol. Unemployment historical low. Where would you like to take this?
- This is really all there is to it.
Quote from @James Hamling:
I think many novices miss, don't know or forget that "the market" and it's market makers/movers/etc. have a kind of tri-lingual way of speaking.
- There is what they say, the actual words being stated.
- There is what those words really mean, or there true intent, which all too often is the exact opposite, such as saying the economy remains strong and a-ok with no recession risk being seen, because there is risk seen for it, but to say such would be to make it happen, and to say there is-not, may induce stabilizing actions that thwart the happening of such.....
- And there is what they DO.... There actions, the actions.
The economy was struggling, don't know a soul who says otherwise besides the market. The market, as in wall street, politicians, the media, would tell you things are great. What else are they going to say?
As I said in another thread, they will not let the word "recession" be on the print page anywhere. They are doing what it takes to keep things up. The reality is the economy is struggling. Look at the debt expenses, lack of savings, and then look at the flight to quality in passive investing vechicles(nvidia,s&p index). That tells you everything you need to know, not what they say. What they do. Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
Lol. Unemployment historical low. Where would you like to take this?
Check under the hood. What unemployment has been destroyed, and what employment has picked up. + 100ks of uber jobs vs demolished IT and finance jobs. Cool, it's "historically" low. Unemployment was a precarious point, esp with revisions on deck.
You read the headlines, keep at it. Its why you're a small fry.- Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
@V.G Jason if a small fry is being a multimillionaire and doing whatever the hell I want to do every day than I’m heading to McDonald’s right now. I’d rather be a small fry than in a cult. Take great care.
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
Well I sure hope we don't see that much of a drop by the end of the year.
Like @Collin Hays said, inflation is far from over. Originally they said they would do anything and everything to get inflation at or below 2%. All of a sudden we get a 50 basis point cut?That is inflationary. Either there is something in the indicators we don't know about or...you give it your best guess.
I don't want to see a recession (full bore). It won't do anyone any good.
The fight is business life cycle and unemployment. @Carlos Ptriawan and I were discussing this at the top of the year. The Fed's objective will change, and it did.
Bingo! WTH has he been lately? Been a rough Friday morning for Cisco employees, plus 17 veeps.
Yes lurkers I'm aware, tEcH Is CyClicAl. Lol
- Residential Real Estate Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 5k+ votes2y*Weaker than they were pretending it was.
Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
Quote from @Andrew Syrios:
I definitely thought they would cut rates but that's more than expected. Will be good for real estate but might indicate the economy is weaker than we had thought. And I thought it was rather weak to begin with.
Weaker than who thought?
Politicians and federal agencies were lying about the strength of the economy. Everyone visiting the grocery store knows it. They are just now getting around to telling the truth.
My apologies for such an embarrassing error - Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Jon Martin:
Half its value relative to what currency exactly? All western currencies have solvency and debt issues. As for the BRICS currency, do you think the world will trust a currency primarily managed by 2 authoritarian regimes with declining demographics and economic power? And several other countries with major corruption, social issues and questionable property rights laws?
Brazil has massive resource potential but like the US, they can't get out of their own way. The Bank of Brazil expropriated money from its own depositors back in the 90s (IIRC, I could be off on the decade). They have an expression: "Brazil is the country of the future and always will be".
The economic elites in the eastern hemisphere invest their profits in Western banks and real estate for a reason.Reality is:
China #1 economy in world. Even those who argue US is at this moment ALSO agree it's very close to flipping too China and from there forward, good luck dethroning China because China also has #1 resource reserves in world, with exception to oil.
Russia, #2 oil goliath after the UAE. RU literally own western Europe's energy, literally.
Brazil, #2 internet economy in world, massive resources, and lets be real that in S. America they can eat anyones lunch they choose to at any given moment.
India.... do i really gotta go there?
Turkey, a NATO member is interacting with brics, that's how enticing brics are now. Brics has a sales pitch that's hard to deny "F-the US dictating how you exist" and to most countries in the world, that pitch sounds really nice. Most of the world is sick and tired of US f'ing em over.
Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea, Venezuela, Cuba..... on and on the list goes who have suffered, seriously, via US interventionism.
Sure, some absolutely have benefited, S.Korea is a fair example BUT, one can argue it would just be "Korea" today if only MacArthur wasn't planning a run for President there after and ignored Chinas warning and offer of peace to stop with all but total victory, instead pushing to Chinese border, pulling them into it and literally loosing the entire north.... FYI, not conspiracy or guesswork here, my Grandfather was bird Colonel under MacArthur and that's as he retells it.
This isolationist rationalizing that US is the greatest because we were the greatest and there for we will always be the greatest is just IGNORANCE-squared. And I often finds those purporting such are those with least international experience.
So I encourage, go to Africa, the Med., Indo-pacific, South America, Eastern Europe, find out 1st hand the reality of things. China and Russia are all over Africa, the US, not to be seen really anywhere.
BRICS is hard at it, the US, still trying to coast on the actions of 3/4 generations ago......
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
Economy weaker than you thought? Dow is above 42K (record) Economy booming. Rates going down.
That's the market, not the economy.
And it's INFLATION. As dollar inflates the #'s get bigger, that's literally how inflation works.
So yes, you can get a 200k DOW and it is kind of "doomsday" vs "hayday" because with that a loaf of bread would be what, $200......
Inflation exacerbates and amplifies any disparity gap.
That is the issue of the day. A minority are now carrying the tax burden, and the majority are existing via various forms and levels of assistance.
And our Gov. answer is MORE assistance, assistance for ALL.....
Which is code for "MORE dependency, dependency on D.C. for ALL!!!!!".
There is no such thing as FREE college, FREE food, FREE housing, FREE health care. When they say "FREE" you (a) know it's some bs there trying to sell you because "free" is OTHER PAYOR.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
@V.G Jason if a small fry is being a multimillionaire and doing whatever the hell I want to do every day than I’m heading to McDonald’s right now. I’d rather be a small fry than in a cult. Take great care.
In a Cult!????......
@V.G Jason did you go join a cult and not invite me to the kool-aid and castration party? Come on man, maybe I wanna hitch a ride on the mothership too.....
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Jon Martin:
....economic elites in the eastern hemisphere invest their profits in Western banks and real estate for a reason.
Apparently you've never heard of a little place called Dubai?.....
Or London, Singapore, Hong Kong......
.... Luxembourg, Isle of Man, Switzerland......
(FYI maybe ya wanna read Global Finance magazine as Luxembourg was rated #1 richest country in the world 2024, give ya 2 guesses how that is as there's no oil, no ocean, land-locked tiny nation middle of Europe.....)
.... Bank of the Bahamas, Cyprus, Qatar, Macao, Ireland.......
Sorry bud, facts don't fit your feelings...... Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
@V.G Jason if a small fry is being a multimillionaire and doing whatever the hell I want to do every day than I’m heading to McDonald’s right now. I’d rather be a small fry than in a cult. Take great care.
In a Cult!????......
@V.G Jason did you go join a cult and not invite me to the kool-aid and castration party? Come on man, maybe I wanna hitch a ride on the mothership too.....
McDonalds small fry has to makeup stuff to retaliate. It's all good.
No cult here, I'm in my own lane per usual.
- Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
@V.G Jason lol what am I making up? Show your face, VG? Are you even a real person or a bot? Let me know if you need a few bucks, I’m a nice guy and got you!
- Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
@James Hamling ah another troll. At least your appear to be a real person :)
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
Well I sure hope we don't see that much of a drop by the end of the year.
Like @Collin Hays said, inflation is far from over. Originally they said they would do anything and everything to get inflation at or below 2%. All of a sudden we get a 50 basis point cut?That is inflationary. Either there is something in the indicators we don't know about or...you give it your best guess.
I don't want to see a recession (full bore). It won't do anyone any good.
Come January there is no hiding things, holiday spending will declare the standing of things, and while not impossible to do, I find it hard to see how they could spin a huge reduction in holiday spending as "economy is a-ok".
But, that's other side of POTUS election so who knows, maybe there is no care how that comes out in wash.
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes2y
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Jon Martin:
....economic elites in the eastern hemisphere invest their profits in Western banks and real estate for a reason.
Apparently you've never heard of a little place called Dubai?.....
Or London, Singapore, Hong Kong......
.... Luxembourg, Isle of Man, Switzerland......
(FYI maybe ya wanna read Global Finance magazine as Luxembourg was rated #1 richest country in the world 2024, give ya 2 guesses how that is as there's no oil, no ocean, land-locked tiny nation middle of Europe.....)
.... Bank of the Bahamas, Cyprus, Qatar, Macao, Ireland.......
Sorry bud, facts don't fit your feelings......Sorry bud, but your reading comprehension doesn’t match my post and basic geography. “Western Banks” is what I said, not US banks, which would encompass all of Western Europe. Even countries that are not technically in the western hemisphere. Even if we draw the line between East and West at Greenwich Village, pretty sure that Ireland and Bahamas would count. Lol
Broader point is that currency is based on trust, and China and Russia are the antithesis of that on the world stage. We are no Boy Scout either, but in a relative sense they are different worlds. Which is why there is more investment in real estate and bank deposits in the “western world” (which includes. Luxembourg and Switzerland) from the East than the other way around. - Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes2yI’ve been hearing this narrative for decades. Remember when we were talking about “Peak Oil” in the 00s being the end of the global economy?
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
@James Hamling ah another troll. At least your appear to be a real person :)
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Bud Gaffney:
@James Hamling ah another troll....
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @Jon Martin:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Jon Martin:
....economic elites in the eastern hemisphere invest their profits in Western banks and real estate for a reason.
Apparently you've never heard of a little place called Dubai?.....
Or London, Singapore, Hong Kong......
.... Luxembourg, Isle of Man, Switzerland......
(FYI maybe ya wanna read Global Finance magazine as Luxembourg was rated #1 richest country in the world 2024, give ya 2 guesses how that is as there's no oil, no ocean, land-locked tiny nation middle of Europe.....)
.... Bank of the Bahamas, Cyprus, Qatar, Macao, Ireland.......
Sorry bud, facts don't fit your feelings......Sorry bud, but your reading comprehension doesn’t match my post and basic geography. “Western Banks” is what I said, not US banks, which would encompass all of Western Europe. Even countries that are not technically in the western hemisphere. Even if we draw the line between East and West at Greenwich Village, pretty sure that Ireland and Bahamas would count. Lol
Broader point is that currency is based on trust, and China and Russia are the antithesis of that on the world stage. We are no Boy Scout either, but in a relative sense they are different worlds. Which is why there is more investment in real estate and bank deposits in the “western world” (which includes. Luxembourg and Switzerland) from the East than the other way around.LMAO..... ah ok, so your right, always right, when wrong your right..... So Hong Kong is "western" to you...... Everything, everywhere, is "western" because you declare it so......
Wow, have fun in your eco-chamber.
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
Well I sure hope we don't see that much of a drop by the end of the year.
Like @Collin Hays said, inflation is far from over. Originally they said they would do anything and everything to get inflation at or below 2%. All of a sudden we get a 50 basis point cut?That is inflationary. Either there is something in the indicators we don't know about or...you give it your best guess.
I don't want to see a recession (full bore). It won't do anyone any good.
Come January there is no hiding things, holiday spending will declare the standing of things, and while not impossible to do, I find it hard to see how they could spin a huge reduction in holiday spending as "economy is a-ok".
But, that's other side of POTUS election so who knows, maybe there is no care how that comes out in wash.
Anyone who owns a business knows that business has been bad, not slightly down. But outright bad. The one's with variable debt get a bit of relief, but the reality is that it is so minute. The level of fixed costs to operate has gotten so strong, while demand has diminished and is a fraction(depending upon what business) compared to 21-22. Most businesses cannot pass the cost to the consumer anymore, because with costs even as is the demand has not been met.
This has hit down to the employees, and their consumer spending. All you need to look at is earnings, October(Q3's print) will be very interesting. Q2s was bad, there was no other way to put it. Nike, Estee Lauder are a good gauge of consumer confidence. The lack of (real) jobs added is definitely a concerning process. We'll see PT stocking(at major shops) increase as we head into the holidays, I'm curious the amount of jobs versus previous years.
In regards to how they coin it, it'll be things like light turbulence, a little hiccup, etc. There's not a soul I deal with that is telling me things are normal, or okay. Not a soul, and I deal with all the types. Not the McDonalds fella above because he's a whole "multimillionaire", how could little ole me deal with such greatness. Try out Whataburger sometime, I have some you can try out.
- Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes2y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @James Hamling:
Quote from @Michael Baum:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
@Michael Baum
I believe they noted to be another 1/2 point and down to 4.5 by end of year, 3.5 by end of 2025 and 3 by end of 2026.
Again mortgage rates are closerly correlated to 10 year not short term rates - so we can see how that reacts and how investors price the 10 year to gauge mortgage rates
I think people think rates will drop tomorrow but the last month rates have been dropping knowing the fed was reducing rates
Well I sure hope we don't see that much of a drop by the end of the year.
Like @Collin Hays said, inflation is far from over. Originally they said they would do anything and everything to get inflation at or below 2%. All of a sudden we get a 50 basis point cut?That is inflationary. Either there is something in the indicators we don't know about or...you give it your best guess.
I don't want to see a recession (full bore). It won't do anyone any good.
Come January there is no hiding things, holiday spending will declare the standing of things, and while not impossible to do, I find it hard to see how they could spin a huge reduction in holiday spending as "economy is a-ok".
But, that's other side of POTUS election so who knows, maybe there is no care how that comes out in wash.
Anyone who owns a business knows that business has been bad, not slightly down. But outright bad. The one's with variable debt get a bit of relief, but the reality is that it is so minute. The level of fixed costs to operate has gotten so strong, while demand has diminished and is a fraction(depending upon what business) compared to 21-22. Most businesses cannot pass the cost to the consumer anymore, because with costs even as is the demand has not been met.
This has hit down to the employees, and their consumer spending. All you need to look at is earnings, October(Q3's print) will be very interesting. Q2s was bad, there was no other way to put it. Nike, Estee Lauder are a good gauge of consumer confidence. The lack of (real) jobs added is definitely a concerning process. We'll see PT stocking(at major shops) increase as we head into the holidays, I'm curious the amount of jobs versus previous years.
Problem is the lying is so rampant, hell it's "main-stream" now for cooked-books and out-right lying in reports. 0 accountability anymore, 0.
So job's report is near totally worthless now because you need the revisions to get to the actual real #'s, after fake BS one's had time to sit and cycle media 1st, which were all apparently ok with now..... It's maddening.
I think you hit the nail on the head, to difference from business owner/operators and persons regurgitating what ___ programed them with.
Those who KNOW vs those who were told....
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