SMOKIES REPORT: A dose of reality

SMOKIES REPORT: A dose of reality

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

I found this listing on a FSBO Facebook page. The listing with the agent expired, so the owners are selling it themselves. Great view, 10 minutes from the Pigeon Forge Parkway. $750,000. Look at the rental history.

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Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
7mo
Quote from @Bill B.:

That’s amazing Chris. You hit $100-$120k/yr with $275-$330/day @ 100% occupancy? Or do rates double or triple that occasionally to allow for 10% vacancy? 

I assume with such a remote location a good cleaning/repair team makes it work. A definite home run. Great job. I know boredom is no reason to move from LTR to STR but at least I can live vicariously through you and Collin.

Rates do double. Right now I have rates low because when I blocked off the past month for the remodel/refresh it dropped in the logarithmics for Airbnb/VRBO. This is helping regain traction. Also, the pet fee of a $150 a stay brings a considerable amount each year, especially on a ton of one and two night bookings.

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  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    7mo

    Yikes.  What are they asking for it?

  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    7mo

    Yikes, the rental history sure tells a story.

  • Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
    7mo

    There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Account Closed:

      There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

      I’ve never seen a Smokies 2BR produce $100K. I own and manage one of the best 2BRs in Gatlinburg, and the highest year was $92K.  
    • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:

      There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

      I’ve never seen a Smokies 2BR produce $100K. I own and manage one of the best 2BRs in Gatlinburg, and the highest year was $92K.  

       It's doable if the 2 beds have indoor heated pools. But that is the only scenario that I know of that has a shot at that.

    • Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
      Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:

      There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

      I’ve never seen a Smokies 2BR produce $100K. I own and manage one of the best 2BRs in Gatlinburg, and the highest year was $92K.  

      A regular cabin with an average operator is going to be lucky to hit $60k, yes.  But while this forum is fantastic for the investing side of things, to put it mildly, it is not exactly operating on the cutting edge of modern revenue generation.

      There are tons of 1-2br cabins in Gatlinburg area doing $100k+. Not as a best year ever, but right now in the soft market of 2025/2026. There are even some doing $150k+ at $500+/nt ADR with high occupancy. Without a pool.

      These are not just listed and let loose by any means, and are high level operators. But there are plenty of them out there.

      Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:

      There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

      I’ve never seen a Smokies 2BR produce $100K. I own and manage one of the best 2BRs in Gatlinburg, and the highest year was $92K.  

      A regular cabin with an average operator is going to be lucky to hit $60k, yes.  But while this forum is fantastic for the investing side of things, to put it mildly, it is not exactly operating on the cutting edge of modern revenue generation.

      There are tons of 1-2br cabins in Gatlinburg area doing $100k+. Not as a best year ever, but right now in the soft market of 2025/2026. There are even some doing $150k+ at $500+/nt ADR with high occupancy. Without a pool.

      These are not just listed and let loose by any means, and are high level operators. But there are plenty of them out there.

      I've been managing in the Smokies for 21 years, so I would like to think I'm pretty decent at modern revenue generation. You and I will have to disagree on your ascertain that 1-2 bedroom cabins in Gatlinburg are doing $100-150K with no pool. I don't know that I have ever even seen an MLS listing claiming such. Maybe there were a precious few in 2021-22. But I doubt it.

    • Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
      Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:

      There is a management problem here and the numbers show it.  In Star Crest this should do $100k to $125k (some push $150k).

      I’ve never seen a Smokies 2BR produce $100K. I own and manage one of the best 2BRs in Gatlinburg, and the highest year was $92K.  

      A regular cabin with an average operator is going to be lucky to hit $60k, yes.  But while this forum is fantastic for the investing side of things, to put it mildly, it is not exactly operating on the cutting edge of modern revenue generation.

      There are tons of 1-2br cabins in Gatlinburg area doing $100k+. Not as a best year ever, but right now in the soft market of 2025/2026. There are even some doing $150k+ at $500+/nt ADR with high occupancy. Without a pool.

      These are not just listed and let loose by any means, and are high level operators. But there are plenty of them out there.

      I've been managing in the Smokies for 21 years, so I would like to think I'm pretty decent at modern revenue generation. You and I will have to disagree on your ascertain that 1-2 bedroom cabins in Gatlinburg are doing $100-150K with no pool. I don't know that I have ever even seen an MLS listing claiming such. Maybe there were a precious few in 2021-22. But I doubt it.

      https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/767281135692804773
      Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews
  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    7mo

    Hey @Collin Hays

    I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

    Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


    -thanks. 

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.
    • Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 


       Wow! I'd love to see that place!  Do you have a link to it?

    • Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 


       Wow! I'd love to see that place!  Do you have a link to it?

      We just opened it back up.  We repainted, remodeled the bathroom, replaced the canopy over the hot tub and replaced the deck with Trex (1,100 sq ft deck) since Jan 5th so the calendar is just now starting to fill.

       https://www.smokymountainviews.com/shell-mountain-cabin-orp5b46b30x

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 


       Wow! I'd love to see that place!  Do you have a link to it?


       https://www.smokymountainviews.com/shell-mountain-cabin-orp5b46b30x

       Haha.  OK you got me.  That's a 4000+ sq foot 2BR.   I would expect a nicely appointed 4000 sq ft cabin to be above $100K a year for sure.

      SUPER NICE PLACE!

    • Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 


       Wow! I'd love to see that place!  Do you have a link to it?


       https://www.smokymountainviews.com/shell-mountain-cabin-orp5b46b30x

       Haha.  OK you got me.  That's a 4000+ sq foot 2BR.   I would expect a nicely appointed 4000 sq ft cabin to be above $100K a year for sure.

      SUPER NICE PLACE!


       Not sure which one you were looking at on my website, but Shell Mtn Cabin (blue) is only 990 sq ft inside with 1,100 sq ft of deck.

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Account Closed:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      Hey @Collin Hays

      I didn’t see an address or I would have looked it up myself. Do you know how long ago they purchased and what they paid? (Checking to see how much room they have to drop the price.)

      Any ideas what you could net a new owner out of it?


      -thanks. 

      In the year 2026, $60K a year in rents (not including housekeeping fees) is about as good as you’re going to get for a 2BR cabin.  Most will come in well below that.

       I get $100k to $120k on my 2 bedroom consistently last 9 yrs way out in Jones Cove. 


       Wow! I'd love to see that place!  Do you have a link to it?


       https://www.smokymountainviews.com/shell-mountain-cabin-orp5b46b30x

       Haha.  OK you got me.  That's a 4000+ sq foot 2BR.   I would expect a nicely appointed 4000 sq ft cabin to be above $100K a year for sure.

      SUPER NICE PLACE!


       Not sure which one you were looking at on my website, but Shell Mtn Cabin (blue) is only 990 sq ft inside with 1,100 sq ft of deck.


       Oops. I was looking at a different cabin in a different browser window.  that's a nice place!

  • MD/DC · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7mo

    Makes sense that numbers are significantly lower than the 2021-2022 and I'd also wonder if part of the decline is owner fatigue? Sounds like they want to be done with the STR gig and move on.

  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    7mo

    That’s amazing Chris. You hit $100-$120k/yr with $275-$330/day @ 100% occupancy? Or do rates double or triple that occasionally to allow for 10% vacancy? 

    I assume with such a remote location a good cleaning/repair team makes it work. A definite home run. Great job. I know boredom is no reason to move from LTR to STR but at least I can live vicariously through you and Collin.

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      That’s amazing Chris. You hit $100-$120k/yr with $275-$330/day @ 100% occupancy? Or do rates double or triple that occasionally to allow for 10% vacancy? 

      I assume with such a remote location a good cleaning/repair team makes it work. A definite home run. Great job. I know boredom is no reason to move from LTR to STR but at least I can live vicariously through you and Collin.


       I don't know that you want to live vicariously through me.  Maybe Chris.  ;)

    • Investor · FL · Member since 2016 · 332 posts · 388 votes
      7mo
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      That’s amazing Chris. You hit $100-$120k/yr with $275-$330/day @ 100% occupancy? Or do rates double or triple that occasionally to allow for 10% vacancy? 

      I assume with such a remote location a good cleaning/repair team makes it work. A definite home run. Great job. I know boredom is no reason to move from LTR to STR but at least I can live vicariously through you and Collin.

      Rates do double. Right now I have rates low because when I blocked off the past month for the remodel/refresh it dropped in the logarithmics for Airbnb/VRBO. This is helping regain traction. Also, the pet fee of a $150 a stay brings a considerable amount each year, especially on a ton of one and two night bookings.

  • Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2020 · 1 post · 0 votes
    7mo

    I have a B property with an A view Franklin NC.

    Should I consider turning my 3/2 long term rental into my first STR? (I'm retired and active)

    https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/614-Waterfall-Dr-Franklin...  

    The Jones Cove (NC?) quote got me thinking. 

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    7mo

    I'm assuming those numbers are gross so after expenses, fees, and other costs you probably net, what, $30,000. You would pay $750,000 for $2,500 bucks a month in rent. 

    7e investments53 Reviews
  • Lender · Nationwide · Member since 2022 · 46 posts · 28 votes
    7mo

    Low numbers for a $750,000 purchase. I have closed STR's in other areas of the country that gross $130,000 to $160,000 with a purchase price of $750,000 or less.

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    7mo

    What am I missing here @Collin Hays? 

    There valuing it at a 13 P/E..... That's crazy. 

    Like.... Not expensive, just crazy. 

    I can buy a recently renovate 20room motel around the area at a 4 P/E @50% occupancy. 

    To put this in terms I can buy McDonalds, 0 tenants 0 toilets, at a ~26 P/E today. And I think we'd all agree McDonalds is about 100X "safer" on the certainty of forward revenues and what not than any leased properties. I mean, McDonalds is as close to a "sure thing" in business sense that anything comes, right. 

    In my head, PREMIUM for the most premo property, location etc etc is about a 7 P/E. 

    Because you got a lot of inputs, capex to consider, risk factors galore. 

    By my math that would be $404,852

    So who's the nutty one, me or them?????? 

    And this is grabbing a falling knife, as revenues clearly show, so I'd have to get over that hurdle to figure out where bottom is, why it's falling, what if anything I can do to stop that, where, at what expense......

    Just seems bonkers to me. 

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      7mo
      Quote from @James Hamling:

      What am I missing here @Collin Hays? 

      There valuing it at a 13 P/E..... That's crazy. 

      Like.... Not expensive, just crazy. 

      I can buy a recently renovate 20room motel around the area at a 4 P/E @50% occupancy. 

      To put this in terms I can buy McDonalds, 0 tenants 0 toilets, at a ~26 P/E today. And I think we'd all agree McDonalds is about 100X "safer" on the certainty of forward revenues and what not than any leased properties. I mean, McDonalds is as close to a "sure thing" in business sense that anything comes, right. 

      In my head, PREMIUM for the most premo property, location etc etc is about a 7 P/E. 

      Because you got a lot of inputs, capex to consider, risk factors galore. 

      By my math that would be $404,852

      So who's the nutty one, me or them?????? 

      And this is grabbing a falling knife, as revenues clearly show, so I'd have to get over that hurdle to figure out where bottom is, why it's falling, what if anything I can do to stop that, where, at what expense......

      Just seems bonkers to me. 

      You are seeing a couple of things:  

      1.  A rotation back to the traditional investor mindset.  "As long has the income makes the house payment, I'm good with it."  Other than the 2020-2024 window, that has been the strategy.  We are returning to that.  You don't have investors jumping in trying to make monthly net income.  It isn't realistic, and aside from COVID, never was.

      2.  The "bottom"?  We won't see a bottom until after a protracted stock market bear. That will happen at some point in the next few years - who only knows when.  That's when things are going to get real. Prices could drop 50 percent really easily. I've seen it before.

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