Hello from San Francisco! Is the Bay Area right for me?

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Hello from San Francisco! Is the Bay Area right for me?

Max Maloney
San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 3 posts · 3 votes

Hi everyone, 

I'm hugely impressed with the quality of information I've found here so far, so I wanted to say hi and introduce myself. My name is Max, and I'm a San Francisco native. I'm in my late 20's and a Mechanical Engineer at Apple. 

I'm here for 2 reasons: 1) I bought my primary residence in San Francisco in late 2014 and I caught the "bug" of real estate - I just can't stop looking at properties! I find it hugely entertaining. 2) All of the successful folks I've known in life have owned several rental properties, and really enjoyed the rental incomes as a retirement cashflow later in their lives. 

So, I'm interested in learning more about purchasing rental properties. 

I have a little over $325k in the stock market right now and I'd like to diversify my overall investments by moving a hefty portion of this into a rental property downpayment. My struggle is this: Ideally I would like to buy my first rental property within driving distance so that I can manage it myself - but as we all know, the Bay Area is quite expensive. Is the Bay Area really only a good deal if you're looking to make money on raising property values? Is it not a good cash flow environment? Would I gain a better cash return if I look in other markets, possibly out of state? 

Or, if investing in a place in the Bay Area is possible for someone with my amount of free cash, what sorts of properties / areas do you recommend looking in? 

Another question is: If I look in a cheaper out-of-state market where I would have enough for all-cash (or at least much more than 20% down), is this even an option you would recommend? It seems to me that with interest rates so low, I'd be a fool to put more than 20% down on a place no matter where it is. Am I missing something? Why DO people make all-cash offers? Related to this question is - would it be a better overall investment to pay down my current mortgage in big chunks over the next few years so that I can own my home outright within the next ~7years, and THEN start looking at rental properties?  (I realize that this is more of a question for a financial advisor, but just curious if anyone else has been in the same boat!)

I realize these questions are a bit broad, and I'll look forward to narrowing my focus (and my questions) as I learn more. 

Thanks!

-Max

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Alex Vidal
Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
11y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:

@Max Maloney

I generate 12%+ Cash on Cash and 20%+ Internal Rates of Return on every out-of-state investment.  Investing locally means you will likely loose money for several years, before you're able to raise rents sufficiently to cash flow.

My belief is that investing for appreciation is speculation.  You cannot predict appreciation.

Jon - You do realize that IRR calculations/forecasts are heavily weighted to the exit price? Therefore you're blatantly contradicting yourself saying that you get 20%+ IRRs, but you think investing appreciation is speculation and you can't predict appreciation.

I find it very hard to believe that you can find a stabilized out of state property (like one Max would hypothetically be investing in) that can generate a 20%+ IRR. The only way you're going to get to a 20%+ IRR, is through value add short term investing or unrealistic assumptions. Any one can throw out claims like you have above, but I'd be very interested to see your financial models and assumptions to see how realistic they really are.

Additionally, you need to realize that no matter how high prices currently are in the Bay Area, they have only just now reached pre-recession levels. There's plenty of room for the Bay Area to continue this upward trend because of land scarcity, much more difficult lending practices than 2005, job growth, income growth, and pent-up demand from the Millennial generation. Many out of state markets have had a huge run up in recent years and have now greatly surpassed their pre-recession levels and that throws up a big red flag for me. 

Additionally, there are plenty of properties locally that can cash flow day 1. I purchased an A+ located $1M SFR this year, that generates a 9% cash-on-cash return in the East Bay. Real estate is an industry built upon inefficiency, all it takes is a little digging and work to find a truly good deal.

Over the past 20 years (which includes 10 years of the worst market in recent history), SF home prices have increased 3.5x and SJ homes have increased 4x. Rather than simply saying appreciation is speculation, I challenge you to show me any market in the US that has experienced appreciation anywhere close to that. Additionally, although there's no rental data going back that far in history, I also guarantee that rents have experienced similar (or quite possibly more) exponential growth. 

Are you telling me that you'd rather buy something turnkey in the Midwest that will most likely increase in price 2x over the next 30 years and maybe see rents increase 2x, rather than property in the Bay Area that will not only make you a multi-millionaire in 30 years or sooner when the loan's fully paid off, but will also be spitting off more rental cash flow than you know what to do with? Also what do you think is going to happen when turnkey investors eventually start exiting the popular out of state markets en masse?

The majority of out of state investing is shortsighted and built upon unrealistic assumptions and inflated numbers. Invest in solid property that pencils out, in a market with strong fundamentals, lock a loan in for 30 years and you'll kill it in the long run. 

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  • Max Maloney
    OP
    San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 3 posts · 3 votes
    11y

    Hi everyone, 

    First off, I want to say thank you for all the information so far! You've all been 

    @Jay Hinrichs, If I were to go out of state, I'd love it to be in an area that I could see myself moving to someday... Portland, OR is definitely such an area. Good to hear you mention that Oregon might be an opportunity.

    Oakland is definitely an interesting area for me. It's extremely close, but prices are more affordable. I'd look at buying in a newish building that's not subject to rent control.

    @Mark Shaffar, Thank you for explaining the all-cash offer! It makes total sense to me know. I wonder what percentage of all-cash purchases get refinanced right away? I would imagine quite a few, at these interest rates!

    @Alex Vidal, you hit the nail on the head - most the info I find is about trying to buy in SF Bay Area when you can't afford a down payment. In my case, I COULD, but I need to run numbers to see if I SHOULD. You articulated this a bit more clearly than I did - thanks! Anyway, I definitely see real estate as a long term investment. You've also made a very good point about CapEx costs vs. property values. You mention plenty of opportunities for 2-4-plex properties between $0.5-1M. Two questions: Would you recommend multi-unit properties in the Bay Area vs. apartments/condos/SFRs (and why)? Also, what markets are you referring to in the Bay Area?

    @Account Closed, I spent about half my year in Austin in 2013, and absolutely loved that city. I wouldn't mind owning there, either. With it's recent boom in growth, do you still see it as a good investment opportunity? Or is it becoming a less desirable investment location? 

    Thanks all for the great discussion so far!

    -Max

    0Reply
  • James Wise
    Real Estate Broker · Cleveland Dayton Cincinnati Toledo Columbus & Akron, OH · Member since 2013 · 31k+ posts · 20k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Max Maloney:

    Hi everyone, 

    Another question is: If I look in a cheaper out-of-state market where I would have enough for all-cash (or at least much more than 20% down), is this even an option you would recommend? It seems to me that with interest rates so low, I'd be a fool to put more than 20% down on a place no matter where it is. Am I missing something? Why DO people make all-cash offers?

    Welcome to the site Max.

    In my opinion the best part about rental real estate, especially when investing long distance is the principle pay down of the mortgage.

    You use the banks money to buy the property and the tenants money to pay back the bank. What is better than that.

    2Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Alex Vidal

    I achieved financial independence and retired from corporate America at age 34.  All of the income that I live on comes from my real estate investments.  

    For me, waiting 30 years to become financially independence would take too long...but to each his own.  I'd like to make the money while I'm still young enough to enjoy it.

    1Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Account Closed

    Long term 5%/yr appreciation is very high in any market and 10%/yr per year is extremely high even in historically massive appreciation markets like the Bay Area. 2-3% is conservative and you contradicted yourself again because you just said he could get 10%/year appreciation. You also said - "The markets I'm now invested in have experienced 7% appreciation in the last three months." Once again you previously stated that appreciation is speculation, how are you not speculating on this, did you actually sell these properties? 

    According to your resume, it appears that you've worked a total of 9 different jobs over the past 10 years, which includes 5 months at BlackRock (nice name drop though). I'm sure your short time there taught you a lot! Additionally, your company has only been in business for a year and a half, so your short term numbers mean very little. 

    I've underwritten multiple billions of dollars worth of real estate all over the country, so I'm pretty sure I do know what I'm talking about and I'd be happy to poke more holes in your analyses but there aren't any detailed case studies on your website. 

    Where are you buying properties "in desirable areas near city centers" that are new? There is very little new construction near any city centers in the U.S. and if you buy a new property you are undoubtedly buying it a premium. 

    You are correct the properties I own are older, but that's nothing $50K strategically spent up front (and included in my cash on cash calculation) can't correct. That $50K also easily adds some easy equity to the property. Also you should realize that just because you're buying a newer property doesn't mean there will be zero repairs/capex. Oftentimes  properties today are built much with cheaper materials and shoddier construction than in the past. This will be especially noticeable in any property under $300K.

    If you're budgeting no capex or repairs in your projections (which judging by your other unfounded assumptions is likely) then you're kidding yourself. You may be able to fool newbies with your pie in the sky numbers, but not me, we'll see how your projections match up with reality in 5-10 years!

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Max Maloney

    Unfortunately you missed the boat in Austin.  The ideal time to invest was btw 2008 and 2012.  Prices increased so quickly that it has now become extremely difficult to cash flow.  When you hear good things about markets on the national news, the investment opportunity has usually already passed.

    There are other markets with opportunity where the returns I indicated are still possible.  I've been buying in these markets for the last 24 months.  If you'd like to setup a time to meet and discuss it, if be happy to tell you more about which markets provide the best opportunities currently.

    The two biggest predictors of real estate value are (1) job growth and (2) population growth.  In addition, I'd suggest investing in locations with attractive price to rent ratios and in markets with housing that is below the national average.  Finally, similar to the stock market, all real estate markets move through market cycles so it's worth monitoring market cycles (see the research of Dr. Glenn Mueller, the foremast expert on real estate market cycles in the U.S.).

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Alex Vidal

    @Max Maloney

    I am not against investing locally.  I'm now looking for redevelopment opportunities around Lake Merritt in Oakland that present an attractive risk/return provide. That said they are VERY hard to find and most local deals involve significant cash outlays and more risk than I take by investing out of state.

    My out of state returns are generated by 12-15% in cash flow and an assumption of just 5% appreciation annually, so even if I don't achieve the 5% appreciation figure (very unlikely), I'm stilling generating 12-15% in cash annually.

    I'm fairly conservative by nature, and all local investments I've reviewed because present more risk and less return at least initially than what I'm confute me with, I've passed on them.

    0Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Alex Vidal

    In addition, your comments about the markets I'm investing in participating in the bubble and having an above market run up of prices is innacurate.

    In fact, Dallas and Austin had no runup in prices. The bubble did not affect them. In addition, they were the only cities to experience zero job loss throughout the recession.  Some markets in invested in have experienced a runup, albeit a small one compared to SF, SJ, and Oakland.

    Jon - I dont know where you're getting your facts from but they're wrong. Dallas and Austin have had huge runups in housing prices in recent years. 

    Dallas/Austin (Above All Time Highs) - http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/30/eight-ci...

    Dallas Home Index (Approx 18% Above All Time High Austin isnt Tracked) - http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-cas...

    SF Home Index (4% Below the All Time High) - http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-cas...

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Alex Vidal

    I've been investing since I started my career at Franklin Templeton in 2003.

    I do budget capex and maintenance expenses.

    5% appreciation is not high.  Average appreciation for Texas in the last 20 years was 5%. That's is a conservative estimate.

    Appreciation that has already happened is not speculation.

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y
    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Alex Vidal

    I'm going to stop educating you.  If you'd like information on out of state investing, I suggest you ask nicely or do your own research.

    Best of luck to you.

    0Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Max Maloney

    I'm invested in buy and hold SFR in an A+ location in the East Bay, but the deals there are all now over $1M and there are better investments out there. There's a sweet spot in SFR where you have great safety because of the location but you can still achieve monthly cash flow and lock in for 30 years at an extremely low interest rate.

    That being said, I'm now looking to house hack a 2-4 unit property because that will give me better scale and I'll be able to live rent free rather than sinking thousands into some SF landlord apt owners pocket each month. I'd recommend this strategy if you're willing to do it, but if not I think with your potential capital available a 2-4 plex would still be best in my opinion.

    With the 2-4 plexes you can still get residential 30 year financing like a SFR. Unlike an SFR, you have less vacancy if you lose a tenant and any increase in rent will not only greatly increase value but increasing the rent for 2-4 tenants is much better for your bottom line than only one potential rent increase.

    As for markets, I only know the East Bay and out there, I'd recommend Lafayette, Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill. If you grew up somewhere in the Bay Area, I'd start there looking for deals in that area because you know it so well and you get in touch with a local broker who specializes in these types of smaller apt buildings. Either you can find one on bigger pockets or some google searching should yield some results. You'll want to look for incomes in the area, crime, public transportation (esp BART and Cal Train), school districts (very popular among renters), and large companies/jobs nearby. 

    0Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Account Closed

    You're points make no sense at all and are just full of contradictions. I disproved your point re Austin and Dallas not having a runup in prices. Additionally, per the charts the Dallas index went from a 100 index in January 2000 to 148 today (15.5 years later). Obviously math is not your strong suit because that's a historical appreciation of 2.55% per year because it compouds, not the 5%/yr that you're claiming. In that same time period, the SF index more than doubled on 2 separate occasions going from 100 in January 2000 to 218 in May 2006 (12.75% appreciation per year) and 210 today (4.9% appreciation per year). 

    As I said previously you're obviously selling snake oil and have nothing to back up your wild claims so good luck in your endeavors, but people like you should be the last people giving newbies advice. 

    1Reply
  • Matt R.
    Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Max Maloney

    Welcome to BP! You are going to love this site. You can make money anywhere in real estate. The advantages of investing local are numerous and the disadvantages investing long distance are numerous. What you are comfortable with makes sense. For the long term folks I ask the question.... when your kids ask one day where dad invested back in 2015 what city do you think they hope you picked? The top five cities in Cali where sfh landlords made the most money since 2009 are SJ, SF, LA, SD and Riverside. Those are also the top five for the nation. Good luck with your search!

    http://www.zillow.com/research/landlord-profit-7357/

    2Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 577 posts · 203 votes
    11y

    @Alex Vidal

    Dallas has averaged 5% appreciation per year for the last 20 years. Google it.  

    These charts demonstrate that you're incorrect about Dallas participated in the bubble.

    In addition, all of the other markets i'm invested in have also surpassed 5% per year during the time I've been invested.

    Best of luck to you. 

    0Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Account Closed I never said anything about Dallas participating in a bubble, I said that they're currently way above their all times highs while SF is not. Once again you're unable to get your facts straight.

    Why would I google it and trust some random article on the Internet (probably put out by an unscrupulous broker like yourself) that has no basis and isn't substantiated with hard data. Especially when I can correctly analyze the appreciation rate (which you're unable to do) based on Case-Shiller data which is the most widely accepted data in the SFR industry?

    You're all talk and no substance and your responses prove nothing but your obvious lack of knowledge on the subject.

    Since you're evidently set in your ways and unwilling to listen to reason I'll leave you to your naïveté. I look forward to circling back with you in 5-10 years to see how these phantom 20%+ IRRs pan out!

    1Reply
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Alex Vidal:

    @Max Maloney

    Unlike the majority of people faced with this dilemma, you currently have the capital available to actually buy in the Bay Area with 20% or more down.

    If you want to build long-term wealth, then invest in the Bay Area, there are plenty of opportunities for duplexes-fourplexes in middle class to upper middle class locations in the $500k - $1M range. The great thing about the current market conditions is that right now you can lock into a 4% or better 30 year fixed loan, which will allow you to achieve some solid day 1 cash flow in the Bay Area. Also you'll have the ability to add easy value to the property create equity. Additionally, in the long term (15+ years) the power of Bay Area appreciation and rent growth will undoubtedly add a large amount of money to your net worth. 

    If you're in need of short term cash flow or only want to own real estate for the next 3-5 years, then go the turnkey out of state route. You'll get some nice cash flow and the price of your home may not be as volatile as the Bay Area in the short term. You may gain a little appreciation, but nothing that will greatly affect your net worth. Also you wont need to do any work (except manage from afar) and you wont be able to add equity to the property via simple repairs/upgrades because the turnkey company has already done that and reaped the profits. Any capex hits will also affect your returns much greater than in a higher priced asset. Capex costs, although they vary slightly by region, are basically the same for any similar sized house. The problem with lower priced turnkey properties is that the proportion of the capex costs to the price of the house is much larger and if you buy multiple turnkey properties rather than 1 higher priced property, you're adding multiple roofs, HVAC systems, driveways etc to your portfolio that will eventually need to be replaced.

    Excellent Post !!!

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Alex Vidal:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Max Maloney

    I generate 12%+ Cash on Cash and 20%+ Internal Rates of Return on every out-of-state investment.  Investing locally means you will likely loose money for several years, before you're able to raise rents sufficiently to cash flow.

    My belief is that investing for appreciation is speculation.  You cannot predict appreciation.

    Jon - You do realize that IRR calculations/forecasts are heavily weighted to the exit price? Therefore you're blatantly contradicting yourself saying that you get 20%+ IRRs, but you think investing appreciation is speculation and you can't predict appreciation.

    I find it very hard to believe that you can find a stabilized out of state property (like one Max would hypothetically be investing in) that can generate a 20%+ IRR. The only way you're going to get to a 20%+ IRR, is through value add short term investing or unrealistic assumptions. Any one can throw out claims like you have above, but I'd be very interested to see your financial models and assumptions to see how realistic they really are.

    Additionally, you need to realize that no matter how high prices currently are in the Bay Area, they have only just now reached pre-recession levels. There's plenty of room for the Bay Area to continue this upward trend because of land scarcity, much more difficult lending practices than 2005, job growth, income growth, and pent-up demand from the Millennial generation. Many out of state markets have had a huge run up in recent years and have now greatly surpassed their pre-recession levels and that throws up a big red flag for me. 

    Additionally, there are plenty of properties locally that can cash flow day 1. I purchased an A+ located $1M SFR this year, that generates a 9% cash-on-cash return in the East Bay. Real estate is an industry built upon inefficiency, all it takes is a little digging and work to find a truly good deal.

    Over the past 20 years (which includes 10 years of the worst market in recent history), SF home prices have increased 3.5x and SJ homes have increased 4x. Rather than simply saying appreciation is speculation, I challenge you to show me any market in the US that has experienced appreciation anywhere close to that. Additionally, although there's no rental data going back that far in history, I also guarantee that rents have experienced similar (or quite possibly more) exponential growth. 

    Are you telling me that you'd rather buy something turnkey in the Midwest that will most likely increase in price 2x over the next 30 years and maybe see rents increase 2x, rather than property in the Bay Area that will not only make you a multi-millionaire in 30 years or sooner when the loan's fully paid off, but will also be spitting off more rental cash flow than you know what to do with? Also what do you think is going to happen when turnkey investors eventually start exiting the popular out of state markets en masse?

    The majority of out of state investing is shortsighted and built upon unrealistic assumptions and inflated numbers. Invest in solid property that pencils out, in a market with strong fundamentals, lock a loan in for 30 years and you'll kill it in the long run. 

    Excellent Post... what he said !!!  I made 2 million in tax free dollars just owning home sin the bay area over the last 25 years.  show me anyone in any other quote un quote cash flow market that did  THA T   LOL

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  • Craig E.
    Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2011 · 87 posts · 56 votes
    11y

    A lot of similar threads from CA buyers lately.  Buy out of state for cash flow or amass cash and wait for a crash in order to buy like its 2009.  Why do CA investors feel that these are the only options?

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Registered Nurse (ICU) · San Jose, CA · Member since 2014 · 496 posts · 332 votes
    11y

    @Max Maloney  hey Max.  Keeping an open mind you could have the best of both works and invest in both the Bay Area and out of state.  That way you can diversify and get appreciation and cash flow all at the same time.  All using mostly the banks money of course.  

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  • Account Closed
    Registered Nurse (ICU) · San Jose, CA · Member since 2014 · 496 posts · 332 votes
    11y

    furthermore I love the debates over what's a better way to invest.  I take it all in and then use them all as options for the future.  I think most strategies floating around BP are solid and just comes down to what works for each investor.  We are all different in so many ways.  Perhaps the best strategy is to use multiple strategies.  But what do I know?  I'm still a rookie around here.

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  • Oren H.
    Real Estate Investor · San jose, CA · Member since 2013 · 30 posts · 8 votes
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  • Amit M.
    Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Dallas has averaged 5% appreciation over the last 20 years??

    Someone is smoking some good grass!!

    @Alex Vidal +1 (actually +5) especially WRT buying 2-4 as first property and owner occupying. Great way to start, for all the reasons you mentioned. 

    I made my first investment in SF in 1994, and retired from the w-2 grind in 2004. Today is a nice day. Think I'll go for a long walk, try out Marlow's burger, walk the embarcadero (nice and quiet mid day) then come back home, take in a jacuzzi, hand craft a latte, and surf the web. (It's nice just managing a handfull of units, most north of $3500 in rent/month and within a 10 minute drive :)

    6Reply
  • Max Maloney
    OP
    San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 3 posts · 3 votes
    11y

    @Amit M., rub it in a little more, would you? :) Just kidding - it's awesome to hear you've got such a great quality of life here! Lucky for me, I'm still enjoying my particular W2 "grind" and I'm still very young in my career - your situation sounds like what I'd love to have someday! :)

    The 2-4plex owner/occupier plan won't work for me, as I already have a condo that I dearly love in Duboce Triangle. Would you still recommend a 2-4unit building as a first (non-residence) rental property for someone like me starting out? 

    Cheers! It indeed is a beautiful day in the city today!

    @Alex Vidal, thanks again for your awesome advice in this thread!

    -Max

    1Reply
  • Alex Vidal
    Real Estate Broker · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 51 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Amit M.

    Yeh that dude must be on something because he made absolutely no sense...It's sad that people trust someone like that to invest their money for them. 

    Sounds like you're reaping the benefits of buy and hold investing! I plan to be in that same situation within the next 10-15 years.

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · West Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2014 · 230 posts · 239 votes
    11y
    Alex Vidal It's obvious some posters are desperate to get thier hands on other people's money for thier own financial gain. Over 300k and a new investor? Easy target. Let me throw out magical numbers and hopefully I can reel him in. Max Maloney if someone is all over you like a cheap suit run away!!
    2Reply
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