Has housing mania hit your market?

Has housing mania hit your market?

Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 30 posts · 14 votes

I recently lost out on a duplex in an up and coming area of town that had 8 offers, including mine, the first day it hit the market. The duplex is located right next to one of my other properties so I have been sending the owner direct mail over the course of the past few years that I want to purchase his property but did not have any luck. When he listed his property on the MLS I jumped at the chance to buy it. The numbers on the duplex are flat out terrible which blew my mind that there are so many investors chasing this deal. Here is how bad they are.

Final selling price $357,000 cash which was $18k over asking and $95,000 more than what the seller paid for the property in 2014 and he made zero improvements to the property.

Rent: $1000 for one side and $1125 for the other with nine months left until each lease expires. After which, market rent per unit would be $1300.

On top of the low rents the landlord paid for electricity and gas for one of the units (no clue why he would do that since each unit is metered separate) plus took care of all the lawn mowing and yard care for both sides. 

Taxes were really high too at $5300/year. 

These numbers were so incredibly bad I couldn't believe that so many people chased this deal! I find it hard to believe that this duplex will be worth another $100k more in 2-3 years. Has the speculation mania hit your market? If so what are you seeing?

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Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
9y

Hi @Chris Kane, @Ray Lai, and @Sam Dogen,

Why are you still looking in pricey California for investments? I am selling my last rental condo in San Diego that I have left. In the last year, I have sold 9 rental condos I purchased originally in 2011-2012 for double the purchase price. I have used the power of the 1031 exchange to purchase 6 apartment complexes is Ohio. My cash flow has risen from $48,000.00 a year to $120,000 a year. Plus, I am no longer at the mercy of comps and am in the process of increasing that cash flow by about another $50,000-$60,000 in the next 6-12 months. At the same time increasing NOI, which increases the value of these apartment complexes exponentially too!! The beauty of moving to a strong cash flowing apartment complex business model is that I am no longer at the mercy of comps on my way from my current 86 front doors to my projected 125-130 front doors likely by October, November, or December. Long term goal $750,000-$1,000,000 in cash flow per year. Plus, $50,000,000 in total RE and $15,000,000 in net worth and approximately 1000 front doors.

 In 2011, buying single family condos in Santee and Lakeside were cash cows for me and appreciation happened wildly and I knew that the party couldn't last forever and started to sell and 1031 exchange in May of 2015, all of 2016 and I will 1031 my last rental condo next month.  I purchased it in the summer of 2011 for $116,000 and am selling for at least $270,000.  That money will 1031 for a 20 unit or greater that will cash flow at least $20,000-$30,000 per year for at least the next 4-5 years.  To think, that little 2br 1ba condo in Santee was getting us only $5,000 a year cash flow.  The kicker is we only invested $34,000 in a down payment and about 10,000 in fix up and repairs since August of 2011.

The key is to do a calculation of your return on equity and get that equity out to earn more cash flow and build your RE empire!!  I have said this before, but if a lowly paid school teacher can have 5.5 million in RE and 2.5 million in net worth after 6 years of investing, anyone can!!

Swanny

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  • Sam DogenPro Member
    San Francisco, CA · Member since 2017 · 40 posts · 17 votes
    9y

    I thought San Francisco would slow in 2017 after a relatively slow 2016. But in fact, San Francisco has reignited.  

    Can you imagine when Airbnb and Uber go public?!

  • Investor / Vendor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 949 votes
    9y

    @Chris Kane

    Haha I'm in San Diego too and know exactly what you're talking about. It's getting prettttty ridiculous here.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    Hi @Chris Kane, @Ray Lai, and @Sam Dogen,

    Why are you still looking in pricey California for investments? I am selling my last rental condo in San Diego that I have left. In the last year, I have sold 9 rental condos I purchased originally in 2011-2012 for double the purchase price. I have used the power of the 1031 exchange to purchase 6 apartment complexes is Ohio. My cash flow has risen from $48,000.00 a year to $120,000 a year. Plus, I am no longer at the mercy of comps and am in the process of increasing that cash flow by about another $50,000-$60,000 in the next 6-12 months. At the same time increasing NOI, which increases the value of these apartment complexes exponentially too!! The beauty of moving to a strong cash flowing apartment complex business model is that I am no longer at the mercy of comps on my way from my current 86 front doors to my projected 125-130 front doors likely by October, November, or December. Long term goal $750,000-$1,000,000 in cash flow per year. Plus, $50,000,000 in total RE and $15,000,000 in net worth and approximately 1000 front doors.

     In 2011, buying single family condos in Santee and Lakeside were cash cows for me and appreciation happened wildly and I knew that the party couldn't last forever and started to sell and 1031 exchange in May of 2015, all of 2016 and I will 1031 my last rental condo next month.  I purchased it in the summer of 2011 for $116,000 and am selling for at least $270,000.  That money will 1031 for a 20 unit or greater that will cash flow at least $20,000-$30,000 per year for at least the next 4-5 years.  To think, that little 2br 1ba condo in Santee was getting us only $5,000 a year cash flow.  The kicker is we only invested $34,000 in a down payment and about 10,000 in fix up and repairs since August of 2011.

    The key is to do a calculation of your return on equity and get that equity out to earn more cash flow and build your RE empire!!  I have said this before, but if a lowly paid school teacher can have 5.5 million in RE and 2.5 million in net worth after 6 years of investing, anyone can!!

    Swanny

  • Sam DogenPro Member
    San Francisco, CA · Member since 2017 · 40 posts · 17 votes
    9y

    @Michael Swan - I'm definitely looking to diversify AWAY from San Francisco, hence my desire to sell my rental home at a 2.2% - 2.4% cap rate. 

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2015 · 273 posts · 226 votes
    9y

    @Chris Kane  Was this in SD?  Why are the taxes so high?

    For San Diego, that's not the worst rent to price ratio...

  • Anthony GaydenPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Chris Kane You are trying to say how ridiculous all the other buyers are acting and even point out how it is a poor deal, but admit that you made one of the over asking price offers. Perhaps the other people making offers saw the same potential as you.
  • Investor · Great Neck, NY · Member since 2016 · 679 posts · 467 votes
    9y

    @Chris Kane

    I have to echo @Michael Swan here.  When your local markets become this saturated it's best to go out of state.  I live in New York and went through the same issues.  As a result I invested out of state and was able to make better monthly passive income without having to pay ridiculous prices for deals.

  • Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 30 posts · 14 votes
    9y

    This was an out of state deal. I do all my investing in Idaho. There are much better cash flowing properties to be found there. However, this particular deal was strictly an appreciation play at those numbers. I was willing to take zero cash flow in exchange for another property right next to one I own. There are ten properties located together in this part of town that were rezoned a few years back to high density. The city hopes they will be redeveloped into something better.

  • Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 30 posts · 14 votes
    9y

    hi @Michael Swan,

    That is an awesome story of you rei journey so far! Nice work on repositioning your equity to a higher cash flow area. 

  • Dylan VargasPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Chico, CA · Member since 2016 · 633 posts · 336 votes
    9y

    @Michael Swan...you, Sir, are killing me!  am getting very motivated and rethinking my entire gig. Great info and thanks for posting.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    hi@Dylan Vargas,

    Great point!! If you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change right before your eyes!!!

    Swanny

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Chris Kane:

    I recently lost out on a duplex in an up and coming area of town that had 8 offers, including mine, the first day it hit the market. The duplex is located right next to one of my other properties so I have been sending the owner direct mail over the course of the past few years that I want to purchase his property but did not have any luck. When he listed his property on the MLS I jumped at the chance to buy it. The numbers on the duplex are flat out terrible which blew my mind that there are so many investors chasing this deal. Here is how bad they are.

    Final selling price $357,000 cash which was $18k over asking and $95,000 more than what the seller paid for the property in 2014 and he made zero improvements to the property.

    Rent: $1000 for one side and $1125 for the other with nine months left until each lease expires. After which, market rent per unit would be $1300.

    On top of the low rents the landlord paid for electricity and gas for one of the units (no clue why he would do that since each unit is metered separate) plus took care of all the lawn mowing and yard care for both sides. 

    Taxes were really high too at $5300/year. 

    These numbers were so incredibly bad I couldn't believe that so many people chased this deal! I find it hard to believe that this duplex will be worth another $100k more in 2-3 years. Has the speculation mania hit your market? If so what are you seeing?

     I don't see mania locally yet rather just a shortage at most price points and property types. Sounds like that one had some future stuff happening that is going to make that dirt worth more.  

    Locally jobs are exploding in LALA land. Recently, I noticed more and more out of staters moving in, no official stats but on a visual micro level educated millennials are replacing the ones bailing LA in some locations.  Sometimes there might be fundamental reasons a location has higher demand beyond just crazy speculation.

    Good luck with your search!

  • Rental Property Investor · Rockford, IL · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    Remember that we're a nation-wide housing shortage right now. Some 80% of builders / developers went under in the crash. Housing starts are recovering, but we're well behind the demand right now.

    That could explain the "mania" ...

  • Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 1 post · 1 vote
    9y

    @Chris Kane, Wow! that is crazy, maybe the buyers they are targeting are those who want to own and live in one unit...if the property has already been zoned for more units then maybe something to consider...buying for appreciation reasons is like walking a tight rope over the "sea of speculation."

    @Michael Swan awesome story and looking forward to your success and u achieving your goals!

  • Rental Property Investor · North Conway, NH · Member since 2016 · 69 posts · 16 votes
    9y

    Makes me a little nervous when the market is so hot. Things are selling in a matter of days at much higher prices than just one year ago. Hopefully when things cool off a little I will have more opportunities to scoop up deals.

  • Investor / Vendor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 949 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Michael Swan:

    Hi @Chris Kane, @Ray Lai, and @Sam Dogen,

    Why are you still looking in pricey California for investments? I am selling my last rental condo in San Diego that I have left. In the last year, I have sold 9 rental condos I purchased originally in 2011-2012 for double the purchase price. I have used the power of the 1031 exchange to purchase 6 apartment complexes is Ohio. My cash flow has risen from $48,000.00 a year to $120,000 a year. Plus, I am no longer at the mercy of comps and am in the process of increasing that cash flow by about another $50,000-$60,000 in the next 6-12 months. At the same time increasing NOI, which increases the value of these apartment complexes exponentially too!! The beauty of moving to a strong cash flowing apartment complex business model is that I am no longer at the mercy of comps on my way from my current 86 front doors to my projected 125-130 front doors likely by October, November, or December. Long term goal $750,000-$1,000,000 in cash flow per year. Plus, $50,000,000 in total RE and $15,000,000 in net worth and approximately 1000 front doors.

     In 2011, buying single family condos in Santee and Lakeside were cash cows for me and appreciation happened wildly and I knew that the party couldn't last forever and started to sell and 1031 exchange in May of 2015, all of 2016 and I will 1031 my last rental condo next month.  I purchased it in the summer of 2011 for $116,000 and am selling for at least $270,000.  That money will 1031 for a 20 unit or greater that will cash flow at least $20,000-$30,000 per year for at least the next 4-5 years.  To think, that little 2br 1ba condo in Santee was getting us only $5,000 a year cash flow.  The kicker is we only invested $34,000 in a down payment and about 10,000 in fix up and repairs since August of 2011.

    The key is to do a calculation of your return on equity and get that equity out to earn more cash flow and build your RE empire!!  I have said this before, but if a lowly paid school teacher can have 5.5 million in RE and 2.5 million in net worth after 6 years of investing, anyone can!!

    Swanny

    I'm not looking at San Diego for investment, I invest in Indiana but am looking for a primary here at a terrible time lol. Nice job timing the cycle and using the 1031 to go where the cash flow is. You played the appreciation game perfectly here in SoCal and that beats cash flow in terms of total returns when prices have gone crazy here in the last couple of years. Buying near the bottom and selling near the top of a cycle is awesome, kudos to you. 

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    Hi @Ray Lai,

    Don't buy now.  Wait until the next correction rent instead.  Your home is a liability, not an asset!!

    Swanny

  • Investor · Champaign-Urbana, IL · Member since 2014 · 84 posts · 49 votes
    9y
    Chris Kane where in San Diego was this duplex? To me that actually seems like a very low price for duplex in San Diego, unless it was in dire need of some rehabbing or modernizing. Also, the rents to purchase price ratio are much higher than I normally see. Of course they're not good enough to Cash Flow, but still better than the norm.
  • Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 30 posts · 14 votes
    9y

    @Fabio Salas this was a duplex built in 2000 in good shape but located in Idaho. If I found a place like this in SD I would jump all over!

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    that pricing is about right for the NW... my wife sold a duplex last month for 430k.. rents 1,250 a side 4k tax's  mutlple offers.. this is in PDX

    we have brand new construction of duplexs and 4 plexs in hot areas of Portlandia for 600 to 1.4 mil.. 

    5 to 6 caps.. set up already as condo's so can be sold individually.. I think these are hot buys for our area.. cash flow and appreceation.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:

    that pricing is about right for the NW... my wife sold a duplex last month for 430k.. rents 1,250 a side 4k tax's  mutlple offers.. this is in PDX

    we have brand new construction of duplexs and 4 plexs in hot areas of Portlandia for 600 to 1.4 mil.. 

    5 to 6 caps.. set up already as condo's so can be sold individually.. I think these are hot buys for our area.. cash flow and appreceation.

     That's brilliant, the condo plex combo. I have not seen that before out here. Is that a new thing?

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    @Matt R.  its portlandias away to create affordable or starter housing.

    with detached SFR basically starting in the mid 500 range.

    these attached duplex four plex that are built to condo standards you can have a starter brand new upgraded home for 300 to 350k.. I think there will be a nice appreciation play with this product as well.  as the locations are in prime areas of the city with high walk scores that the younger buyers look for

  • Professional · West Des Moines, IA · Member since 2017 · 21 posts · 11 votes
    9y

    Des Moines is very hot at the moment. Not quite to mania levels, but most properties are on the market less than 72 hours. My aunt was selling her house last summer and before they had even listed it, they had offers from people who heard they were moving.

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Fabio Salas:

    Chris Kane where in San Diego was this duplex? To me that actually seems like a very low price for duplex in San Diego, unless it was in dire need of some rehabbing or modernizing. Also, the rents to purchase price ratio are much higher than I normally see. Of course they're not good enough to Cash Flow, but still better than the norm.

     If you used a conventional loan that purchase could cash flow after the lease expires.  Loan payment would be ~$1500.  In San Diego the prop tax would be slightly higher than $300/month.  That leaves ~$800/month for insurance, vacancy, maintenance and cap expense.  It certainly does not have significant cash flow but in San Diego I would consider the purchase as the property value and rent is likely to appreciate.  So the small cash flow is likely to increase as rents appreciate.  

    The low loan rates allow higher price to rent ratios still provide cash flow.  

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2016 · 24 posts · 6 votes
    9y

    Here in Charlotte we are seeing the mania big time. Any multifamily properties (10 units and under) here are so rare on MLS. And when they do come around, they typically go for 5%-10% over asking with subpar cashflow. Not sure who is buying these properties or how they plan to make money, but it's crazy here anyway.

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