You've picked out cities that tend to have older properties, also more poverty. Maintenance costs will eat into these very theoretical cash flow rates.
I would argue that Detroit is not a good investment market for cashflow. While RTP is high, they have a very one dimensional and volatile economy and have been shrinking. You have to be able to maintain your rental income without losing it to vacancy or rent price decline, something Detroit hasn't shown an ability to do in the last 10 years. Thoughts?
Thanks for your comment and very true. Too many Bigger Pockets newbies who don't understand local market conditions and demographic trends. Things don't go up for ever. The gold rush of mom/pop property investor acquisition are over for the near future.
Pretty harsh comment; Anybody who doesn't abide by analyzing the metrics of the purchase and what works for them is the fool. If I stuck to the 1% rule the past 12 years, I'd have very few properties. Supply and demand; Everyone is chasing that 1%; It's rarely there anymore unless buying in a war zone.
Disagree, although a positive cash flow is important, much more wealth has been created with appreciation. You can buy a house that cash flows $200/month, but if the house never appreciates, you haven’t accomplished anything.
Seems to me this data is clearly older than a year. Don't know of any SFR in Indy for $159K unless you're talking a condo...even if buying in the hood. Maybe a couple outliers under 1000 SF, but nowhere near average $159K. Likewise for the rents. . Bottom line; unless you find a complete fixer upper or off market sale, park your cash on the sidelines for a year.
Does anyone know what's going on in Shreveport? Dave shows it with YoY negative growth which blows my mind. In this real estate market where prices have been skyrocketing all across the country, what in the world is happening in Shreveport for prices to actually fall?
Shreveport population is declining over time. High poverty rates without much job growth. I lived there for 3 years. As an investor, this would be a cash flow play as appreciation is likely to be low.
This is a unique method of calculating the RTP... is it not usually the median sales price/median annualized rent to yield a number greater than 1? This method divides 1 month of median rent by median sales price then multiplies by 100 to generate a number less than 1 and is interpreted as a percentage. What is this a percentage of and why is there a discrepancy in methodology? It seems it results in one months rent as a percentage of sales price.
These Markets have lax enviromental controls. Do not want to buy a toxic waste site or find out city has lead in the Water. How do investors get full disclose on inddor air quality or Water quaility when Cities dont require full testing or disclosure.?
You've picked out cities that tend to have older properties, also more poverty. Maintenance costs will eat into these very theoretical cash flow rates.
Detroit has a large working population, high paying too. $40k properties can bring in $1k monthly. You fix your property nicely, get a good management company to vet your tenants and you are home and dry. Like any market, challenges do exist, but I would not paint all these cities with a poverty brush so quickly.
I’m an investor in Cleveland, RTP is a good tool to use when sifting through deals. We take the ones with the best RTP and then take a deeper look. Cleveland is a great city to build a cash flow portfolio, but you need someone that knows the city. I’m your guy reach out if you help.
I invest in Detroit and I can tell you that what’s being said here is both correct and misleading at the same time.
First, no one is buying houses in Detroit for $60,000 (and there are a ton available for that and less) and then renting them out immediately. The reason the median home sales price in Detroit is so low is because there are an enormous number of houses that need to be renovated and can therefore be snagged for ultra low prices.
At the same time, the city is going through a slow, but steady revitalization, and it is definitely true that rent growth is outpacing property value growth. Last year, I purchased a home in a C- neighborhood for $107,000. This home had been almost entirely renovated (it needed about $3000 of minor repairs), and it now rents for $1,400/month. Earlier this year, I purchased another home in a similar neighborhood for $100,000 put a little over $70,000 into it, and now it rents for $1750 a month. So, Detroit is still one of the better markets to invest in if cash flow is a priority for you, but my experience is that it’s not quite so out of the park good as these numbers would suggest.
I also tend to think Dave may have a bias against the Northeast because there’s a small Northeast city that consistently outpaces all of these places on metrics like RTP, yet never shows up on lists like this.
Here are the RTPs of the last 5 properties I’ve purchased in this city:
1) 1.30% 2) 1.29% 3) 1.49% 4) 1.72% 5) 1.35%
Even if you factor in necessary renovations/ repairs, the RTPs are strong:
Is there a list of markets that cash flow AND appreciate nicely year over year? I bought in Huntsville and super glad I did. Great market. So many don't even look at it but it had both appreciation and cash flow. Also super low taxes.
I would love to see this list and then an overlay of the city being landlord or tenant friendly. I know Philly is very tenant (and squatter) friendly and I'll go out on a limb and guess Baltimore is the same way.
Great article! I work with a lot of investors around Annapolis, Maryland and we are seeing great cashflow in the right areas. Sale prices are high here, but rents are holding strong as well.,
The other idea to keep in mind is RTV - Rent to Value. While the RTPP - Rent to Purchase Price is a good measure, there are times that rent does not keep up with appreciation. If the RTV falls below .25%, unless there is upcoming, dynamic MORE appreciation, that capital could be deployed elsewhere producing a much larger cash flow. Let's say you bought a house 15 years ago (in 2008) for $100,000 that rented for $950, 0.95% RTPP. And today the house is worth $500,000 and you are only getting $1,200, a 0.24 RTV. If you are investing for appreciation and the market still shows it is a high probability, you probably hold it. But many markets that shot up that much are starting to show the opposite, prices dropping. There are many markets where that $500,000 could produce a LOT MORE than $1,200 a month. I have a close example in the Phoenix area. I received $1,200 a month the first year but to get it rented a year later, I had to lower the rent to $900 just to fill it, the market was saturated with rentals. The value of the house has quadrupled and I am still receiving LESS than $1,200 a month. The boss and I are in discussion on where to possibly reinvest that capital or possibly radically RAISE the rent, if the market can handle it. So the lesson is to always keep the RTV in mind when analyzing your portfolio!
I'm just wondering about a specific coincidence: You did not just take the top ten from the FBI crime data? No, of course not. But return on investment needs to consider certain practicalities like this. Also, all of the places with a negative rent growth year over year are that way for a reason: People are moving from those areas and there is a surplus in housing. It is simple economics -- supply and demand. You did not address vacancy rates, which is very high in the negative rent growth areas. I'm not interested in investing in high vacancy crime areas.
Thanks for your feedback, Eric. It's not a coincidence that those things weren't included -- I just didn't include them in my methodology. I choose intentionally, to leave out some of the subjective metrics, and just focus on the rent-to-price ratios. I think you make some good points, and if you make a list with your criteria I'd be eager to see what you come up with!
My real estate law practice is focused on Las Vegas, although I'm planning on expanding to Texas and Florida. I specifically like places that are growing quickly in population because the vacancy rate is low. And when people appear to be moving there based on the political/economic culture, the stability of the political culture becomes important in deciding where to expand. But yes, in large part, this last aspect is highly subjective. But choosing places based on population growth and low vacancy rates is purely objective. Of course, those places usually are not going to have a great rent-to-price ratio. But if such a place was in the top 50 or even the top 100, my investors would be all in.
I'm curious, have you noticed higher concentrations of crime in pockets of communities with higher percentages of rental properties vs home ownership? I found this website and it may be useful to others; https://www.neighborhoodsco...
I relocated to Birmingham 6 years ago and lived in a modest home on a dead-end street with 95%+/- homeowners. Burglary and theft are almost zero. However, less than 5 to 10 miles away with significantly higher percentages of rental properties and low-ranking school systems have much higher rates. You got me thinking about this and the website link offers some very insightful things to consider. We've been blessed with our long-term tenants to date, and it is reassuring when they do vacate the properties the likelihood of vandalism and theft will be significantly lower. I've seen firsthand many temporarily unoccupied properties broken into and stripped bare. Sadly, in Birmingham/Bessemer, there are a lot of homicide/crime stats that could scare an out-of-state investor away but they might miss out on some great deals.
I've never been to Detroit and wouldn't plop down some dough without staying up there a while, making connections with trustworthy people to assist with any decisions on the safest places to invest.
Scranton, PA is known as an investment hot-spot for the Tri-State area. When running these exact numbers for Scranton, the RTPR is 0.8%, putting it at the #6 spot on the national cash-flow list. (Understandably not every market was considered, and larger metro-areas were the focus).
With that being said, in comparison to it's neighboring markets, Scranton stands out in a few other key ways. Not only are you looking at lower-crime rates, but the buy-in is quite less at a median sale price of $150,000. This allows beginners a better opportunity and for the opportunity for investment-buyers to scale much faster. Phila's median sale price is $205,000, Allentown is $215,000, and the cities in the neighboring states of NJ and NY aren't even relatable. The median monthly rent sits at $1,200. If you're looking for a great area to make money, check it out.
What’s the percentage of homeowners in these markets though ? Seems like it would be easy for folks to just buy their primary instead of renting. That speaks to demand, so how profitable are investors really 🤔
Great review and definitely informative in terms of RTV. I am curious if you have ever considered layering medium home price data with 30 year fixed rate mortgage average as well and comparing that to rents? This may provide a clearer picture as to anticipated monthly cost and therefore lead to a better predictor of cash flow on a wide scale view of the economy as most properties have some associated mortgage. Perfect example of this, is today's economic environment where a homes monthly cost can be 30% higher per month due to raised interest rates, as compared to a home of equal value one year ago today. Here is the FRED 30 year mortgage data chart https://fred.stlouisfed.org... that can be useful for some readers to compare.