Real Estate Agent · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2015 · 134 posts · 70 votes
Conventionally, spring is the best time to sell. But when it comes to flips, I don’t think it’s always the case .
I see completely different things happening in different pockets of the St. Louis market. If you’re flipping in a high-demand, low-inventory area, fall can actually work in your favor. There are buyers who have been looking all spring and summer and still haven’t found the house they want.
If you’re bringing them a great finished product with very little competition, why carry it until spring?
BUT — in the wrong pocket, listing a flip in late fall can be a disaster. If there's already plenty of inventory and the buyer pool is more affordability-sensitive, you can lose buyers quickly as you get closer to the holidays and winter. Then you're sitting there watching DOM climb while paying interest, utilities, insurance, taxes, etc. If you don't hold til spring, you best account for the season with your ARV.
Bottom Line -know our micro markets!
I’m curious what other flippers do — if you finish one in October/November, are you getting it on the market ASAP or have you ever intentionally held one for spring?
Investor · Pacific Northwest · Member since 2026 · 538 posts · 307 votes
1mo
@Alicia Sierra I think you’re asking the right question because “spring is the best time to sell” is a market statistic, not necessarily an investment strategy.
For a flip, I’d start with a different clock:
How much does spring have to pay me to justify waiting for it?
If I finish November 1 and hold until March/April, I’m not simply choosing a better selling season. I’m effectively making a second investment decision with the finished house.
Add up four or five months of:
interest taxes insurance utilities maintenance/lawn/snow capital tied up and the opportunity cost of not recycling that equity into the next deal.
Then add the risk that spring doesn’t give you the price increase you were waiting for.
Now you have the actual hurdle rate.
If holding costs me $15K and I need another $5K to compensate for the additional market risk, spring needs to improve my net outcome by more than $20K before waiting makes sense.
And this is where your micro-market point becomes everything.
In a low-inventory pocket with a desirable finished product, I may actually prefer October/November. The buyer pool is smaller, but if there are only one or two genuinely competitive houses, I’m selling scarcity.
In a pocket where buyers already have choices, completely different answer. Now November can turn into December, DOM starts accumulating, buyers smell leverage, you make one price reduction, and suddenly you’re carrying a “stale” flip into the very spring market you were trying to reach.
That’s why I wouldn’t ask:
Spring or fall?
I’d ask:
What is the current absorption rate for my exact product, what is my competition likely to be over the next 60 days, and what spring price premium do I need to beat my carrying-cost hurdle?
If the deal sells at an acceptable return today, I’m generally reluctant to speculate with an already-successful flip just because the calendar says April might be better.
Finish the investment.
Take the return.
Recycle the capital.
Unless that specific micro-market gives you a measurable reason not to.
Real Estate Agent · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2015 · 134 posts · 70 votes
1mo
I like putting it that way - I think the danger for many flippers is getting a current, aka 'spring ' CMA, and assuming that price projection will be the same for a flip that is ready to list in October. You are correct - a comparison in that micro market for fall v. spring from previous year would help. Many Realtors go back a year still and take only top sales; I prefer to use a 'floor' price baseline with a 'possible high' price so whichever way it goes, the pricing works.
