In 1981 rates hit 18.63% and homes still sold. Five seller problems, five tools.
Hi all, Rob here, a Louisville agent. In October 1981, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 18.63%. Eighteen percent. And homes still sold. About 60% of existing home sales in 1981 used creative financing, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Buyers took over the seller's loan. Sellers carried the note.
Same tools. Different decade.
Right now NAR's Pending Home Sales Index came in at 71.2 for August, lower than any month from 2008 to 2011. Mortgage applications just hit their lowest level since 1995. But this isn't 2008. Almost nobody is being forced to sell. People are sitting on 3% mortgages and they're not letting go. It's not a crash. It's a traffic jam. And the way you clear a traffic jam is you open more lanes.
Every seller you talk to is carrying something heavy. Your job is to figure out what it is, then pick the tool that takes the weight off:
The seller who has to move but has a great low-rate mortgage. That's a loan assumption. FHA or VA loans, lender has to sign off. That old loan can be worth more than the granite countertops.
The seller whose house has been sitting, and the buyer who's six months away from qualifying. That's a lease option. The buyer rents now and gets the right, but not the obligation, to buy later at a price everybody locks in today.
The seller who needs it gone fast and doesn't want to touch a thing. That's often an assignment. Know your state's rules on advertising these. Kentucky tightened them in 2023.
The seller whose house needs work they can't afford, but who'd rather get a fair price than a cash lowball. That's a novation. The seller stays on the deed while you fix it up and sell it on the open market, and you both come out ahead.
The seller who owns it free and clear and would love a monthly check more than a big lump sum. That's seller financing.
None of those are magic. They're just more tools in the shed. Seller won't come down on price? Maybe they'll come down on terms. Today's rate kills the deal? Maybe the old rate comes with the house. Seller can't fix it? Maybe they don't have to.
In a hot market, sellers don't need any of this. They've got six offers by Sunday. In a balanced market, creative terms stop being a weird ask and start being the thing that gets the deal done.
And the calendar matters. Fall and winter are when a lot of people pull their listings and wait for spring. The sellers who stay listed through the holidays usually have a real reason to sell. What you plant in October and November is what you harvest in March.
The routine isn't complicated. Look at what's new, what dropped in price, and what's been sitting 60, 90, 120 days. Run the numbers on the ones worth five minutes. Make offers, a lot of them by letter of intent. Follow up, because most deals don't come from the first offer. Then do it again tomorrow.
Which of the five have you actually closed with? I'm curious which one people find hardest to get a listing agent to take seriously.