Numbers aren’t working!
Brian CarlislePro Member
Member since 2026 · 1 post · 1 voteNumbers aren’t working!
Most Popular Reply
Staten Island, NY · Member since 2013 · 105 posts · 42 votes
2dYou're not the only one. Most of what I see in my area doesn't cash flow at today's rates either, and the people buying are usually doing something different than a straight 20% down rental. Some pay cash, some house hack and live in one side, some buy for appreciation and are fine breaking even for a few years, and some add value like finishing a basement or adding a bedroom so the rent jumps.
On the duplex, utilities are a big one. If you're paying them, price out separating the meters or billing them back, because that alone can swing a deal 150 to 300 a month. Also keep in mind you're probably budgeting vacancy, repairs, capex and a manager, which is right, but some of the buyers beating you self manage and plug in almost nothing.
I wouldn't lower your standards just to get a deal done. Keep running them and keep making offers at the price where it works. In a slow market some sellers eventually take them.
19 Replies
- Staten Island, NY · Member since 2013 · 105 posts · 42 votes2d
You're not the only one. Most of what I see in my area doesn't cash flow at today's rates either, and the people buying are usually doing something different than a straight 20% down rental. Some pay cash, some house hack and live in one side, some buy for appreciation and are fine breaking even for a few years, and some add value like finishing a basement or adding a bedroom so the rent jumps.
On the duplex, utilities are a big one. If you're paying them, price out separating the meters or billing them back, because that alone can swing a deal 150 to 300 a month. Also keep in mind you're probably budgeting vacancy, repairs, capex and a manager, which is right, but some of the buyers beating you self manage and plug in almost nothing.
I wouldn't lower your standards just to get a deal done. Keep running them and keep making offers at the price where it works. In a slow market some sellers eventually take them.
- Realtor · Memphis, Shelby County · Member since 2026 · 133 posts · 43 votes2d
You are not the only one feeling this way, and being conservative is not the problem — it is actually protecting you. When a deal only works if you leave out vacancy, repairs, capital expenses, or management, it is not really a deal for a long-term hold. Some buyers you see may be owner-occupants, paying cash, self-managing, or planning a different strategy and timeline, so their numbers will look different from yours. For that duplex, look closely at whether utilities can be separated or billed back, whether the rents are supported by comparable leases, and what price would make the numbers work after all expenses. Then offer at that price and be willing to walk away. Patience here is a strategy, not a weakness.
- 2dJohn RacinePro MemberRental Property Investor · Casselberry, FL · Member since 2008 · 84 posts · 50 votes
Brian, you're definitely not the only one, and I wouldn't loosen your numbers. Before deciding whether it's you or the market, I'd look at where your deals are coming from and how you're structuring them. A few questions:
Where are you finding these properties? If it's mostly the MLS, Zillow and other public listings, you're competing with every buyer in town, including owner-occupants and cash buyers whose numbers look nothing like yours. Public listings tend to be priced for retail buyers, not investors.
Are you working with an investor-friendly agent? I mean one who understands cash flow, runs numbers the way you do, and hears about properties before they hit the market or after they've sat too long. An agent who mostly sells to homeowners will keep sending you deals priced for homeowners.
Have you looked at creative financing like Subject-To or seller financing? In a slow market, some sellers have a low-rate mortgage, a property that's been sitting, or a reason they need out. Sometimes the purchase price stays the same but the terms make a deal work that never would with a new loan at today's rates.
On not having time for short-term or mid-term rentals: you don't have to run them yourself. A property manager or co-host can handle the guests, cleanings and pricing for you. The catch is you have to be willing to give up control and let them run it, and you have to hire the right one. Ask how they price, how they handle turnovers and maintenance, what they report to you each month, and talk to owners they already manage for. If a property only cash flows as a furnished rental, the management fee has to be in your numbers too, but it can open up deals that don't work as a straight long-term rental.
The deals that cash flow right now usually aren't the ones everyone else is looking at. They come from relationships, off-market leads or terms, not just the asking price.
So where are you sourcing most of what you're analyzing right now?
Disclosure: I co-host STRs for other owners.
- 2dJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
the reason so many of these ( deals are not working post are on BP these days) is basically everyone posting is running their numbers with a Minimum downpayment. Try running the numbers with 35 40 or 50% down and see how they do.. Nothing says a good investment is only good with max leverage.
- Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes2h
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
the reason so many of these ( deals are not working post are on BP these days) is basically everyone posting is running their numbers with a Minimum downpayment. Try running the numbers with 35 40 or 50% down and see how they do.. Nothing says a good investment is only good with max leverage.
Yes but then you end up with a very low cash on cash return usually below a treasury note. I don’t think buying down a mortgage to cash flow really makes sense unless some special circumstance.
- 2dGregory AcsPro MemberLender · MD · Member since 2025 · 231 posts · 88 votes
You're definitely not alone, Brian. A lot of investors are finding it difficult to make rental properties cash flow at current prices and financing costs.
I wouldn't lower your standards just because other investors are buying. They might have larger down payments, different financing terms, or different investment goals.
Have you tried comparing different down payment and financing scenarios to see whether the numbers improve, or are the properties simply too expensive relative to the rents?
- 1dMatthew MorrowBusiness MemberInvestor · PA - NY - NJ · Member since 2019 · 793 posts · 273 votes
@Brian Carlisle it's not just you, a lot of people are hitting the same wall right now. I can't control the market, so I try to focus on what I can, which is mostly what I'm willing to pass on. Overpaying is the one thing you can't fix later. What's worked for me is getting off the MLS. Letters, calls, driving around and talking to owners who haven't kept up with their places. It's slower, but that's where I've found numbers that work. Hope something pencils soon.
CORE Team | Realty ONE Group Supreme548 Reviews - Investor · Member since 2023 · 133 posts · 66 votes1d
@Brian Carlisle You're probably not the problem. Try working backward instead of forward. Say the duplex rents $1,300 a side, $2,600 total. Take off vacancy, repairs, capex and management (call it 30%), then taxes, insurance and owner-paid utilities. In Maine, with heat on the owner, that last line alone can be $300-500 a month, and it's usually what kills these.
What's left is your max payment. At 25% down and around 7%, every $100 a month of payment supports roughly $20K of price. If your number comes out $40K under asking, the deal works for a house hacker or a value-add buyer, not buy-and-hold. Shifting heat to the tenant is often the only lever that closes the gap.
- 1dNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
it's the market. both prices and rates are high. vanilla on-market LTRs don't make sense as investments anymore, unfortunately - you'll get a better return on treasury bills or almost anything else.
most people making money are doing some kind of niche or value add strategy. I BRRRR. it's not a lot of fun and there's no cash flow - none. the upside is the forced equity.
Quote from @Brian Carlisle:
Ok. Someone please tell me I’m not the only one analyzing multiple properties a week, my market is very slow lately, and finding that absolutely nothing works! I’m looking at buy and hold long term investments and running numbers. Sometimes things I see that I think are over priced are actually being bought. I don’t know if I’m just being too conservative with my analysis or if the investors scooping up these properties are doing a different strategy than me. I don’t have the time for short term or mid term rentals. Recently a duplex came up that is under $200,000. I ran the numbers and once I account for utilities it ends up being negative cash flow. I’m getting discouraged/impatient. Am I the problem or is it the market?
Hey @Brian Carlisle welcome to BP!
You're definitely not alone! In today's market, finding a buy-and-hold property that produces strong positive cash flow can be challenging, especially when you factor in financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, and utilities.I wouldn't automatically assume you're being too conservative. In fact, being disciplined with your numbers is one of the most important habits an investor can develop. Just because another investor buys a property at a price that doesn't work for you doesn't necessarily mean you're missing something. They may have a different strategy, lower financing costs, a different operating model, or expectations for appreciation rather than immediate cash flow.
One thing worth considering is whether there are opportunities to improve the property's performance through renovations, better expense management, or negotiating a more favorable purchase price. However, if the numbers don't work after realistic expenses, it's important to recognize that and move on.
At JCREIG Capital Funding, we believe successful investing starts with understanding the deal and structuring the financing around a clear investment strategy. The goal isn't simply to acquire more properties—it's to acquire properties that support your long-term objectives.
Don't let impatience push you into a deal that doesn't make financial sense. Consistently analyzing properties, learning your market, and knowing your numbers are all part of becoming a stronger investor.
Sometimes the best deal is the one you have the discipline to walk away from. Keep going—the right opportunity is worth waiting for!
- 16hDivin KanyamaBusiness MemberAccountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 546 posts · 232 votes
You are definitely not alone, @Brian Carlisle. In a slow or expensive market, disciplined underwriting can produce weeks—or months—of deals that simply do not work for a long-term rental strategy.
The fact that other investors are buying does not necessarily mean your analysis is wrong. They may have cheaper financing, more cash, lower return requirements, different expense assumptions, an appreciation or renovation thesis, or a strategy that is not comparable to yours. Some may also be accepting risks you do not want.
I would review your assumptions with a local property manager or experienced investor—especially market rent, vacancy, repairs, capital reserves, utilities, taxes, insurance, and financing—but avoid changing reasonable assumptions merely to make a deal work. If the duplex is negative after realistic expenses, walking away may be the correct decision. Patience is part of the strategy: define your minimum return, keep tracking listings and sales, revisit stale properties, and be ready when price and fundamentals align.
- Real Estate Agent · Portland, ME · Member since 2021 · 7 posts · 3 votes9h
Hossein's work-backward math is the right test, so I'll take the other half of your question: who is buying the ones you think are overpriced. You can usually answer that from public records instead of guessing. Pull the last 12 months of duplex sales in your price range, then look each buyer up in the assessor's records. If the tax bill now goes to the property itself, the buyer probably lives there. Owner-occupants compare the payment to the rent they'd otherwise pay, so their price isn't a buy-and-hold price. If the buyers were investors, look at what changed after the sale, such as higher rents, renovated units, or heat moved to the tenants. That tells you which assumption they made that you didn't.
On the duplex you ran, Hossein's heat point is worth pricing before you pass. Jimmy and Ametria mentioned separating meters. If both units share one heating system, that usually means a second system too, so get a quote and see whether the numbers work after that cost.
- Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes8h
This is the reality of real estate when interest rates are not artificially low. Figuring out ways to properly manage the property, reduce costs, and screen tenants is not as easy as it seems. If you're looking on the MLS, you most likely will not find much, if anything, but of course, there are deals on the MLS. The reality is, if you want positive cash flow, you're going to have to put 40% or more down to make the numbers work.
Real estate is a long game, and I've bought rentals that had no cash flow on day one. It's 10 years later, and they're cash flowing over $300 a month. Plus, the amount of principal that had been paid down on those has been substantial. That is the way you have to look at real estate today: long term. If you're looking to only buy and hold something for under 5 years, it most likely is going to not be as impactful.
7e investments53 Reviews - Rental Property Investor · Oxford, MS · Member since 2019 · 8 posts · 0 votes8h
You’re not alone. Im constantly looking locally and in other markets and I’m seeing the same thing. It’s a cash buyers market.
- 5hSimon W.Business MemberReal Estate Consultant · Lehigh Valley PA & New York City · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 681 votes
Hossein's heat point is the one I'd lean on. I'd underwrite owner-paid utilities as their own line instead of a percentage, because in a duplex they're often the whole difference. If heat, water and trash run $350 a month, that's $4,200 a year, which can turn a $150 a month positive deal into roughly $2,400 a year negative.
One thing that helps a little on the tax side: depreciation usually makes a slightly negative cash flow deal show a bigger paper loss, but that loss is generally passive, so it often just carries forward instead of offsetting your job income. I wouldn't buy a deal for that.
So you're probably not too conservative. Keep the utilities line honest, and only count a bill-back or separate meters if the lease and the local rules actually allow it.
- 5hAbel CurielBusiness MemberReal Estate Agent · Queens, NY · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Brian Carlisle:
Ok. Someone please tell me I’m not the only one analyzing multiple properties a week, my market is very slow lately, and finding that absolutely nothing works! I’m looking at buy and hold long term investments and running numbers. Sometimes things I see that I think are over priced are actually being bought. I don’t know if I’m just being too conservative with my analysis or if the investors scooping up these properties are doing a different strategy than me. I don’t have the time for short term or mid term rentals. Recently a duplex came up that is under $200,000. I ran the numbers and once I account for utilities it ends up being negative cash flow. I’m getting discouraged/impatient. Am I the problem or is it the market?
Hello Brian,
What you're experiencing is very common. What are you factoring in for closing costs, reno/unit turnover, vacancy, capex, maintenance, etc.?
Sometimes it doesn't make any sense on paper. Here are some reasons why I believe people are buying in at numbers that don't seem to pencil out.
- Buyers and investors will pay more than expected, especially if they feel they're buying in a great location (i.e., good school districts, rising rents & tenant profile).
- To justify higher purchase prices, some investors look at rental potential with ADUs, SRO's, or rental assistance programs (i.e. Section 8, NYC's 'CityFheps'). Monthly Rents from assistance programs can be 10-20% higher.
- Some investors can afford to pay a bit more if they have construction in-house and/or can control expenses.
- Buyers and investors are able to negotiate concessions and credits with the sellers. Therefore, the inflated price doesn't always tell the full story. A $200K Purchase price could include $20K+ of concessions, seller credits, or seller-paid fees.
REbuild Team - eXp Realty5252 Reviews - Real Estate Agent · Detroit, Wayne County · Member since 2026 · 20 posts · 14 votes4h
You’re probably not the problem. Sometimes the numbers simply don’t work, and trying to force a deal because other investors are still buying can get expensive fast.
The first thing I’d do is make sure you’re comparing apples to apples. Some of the properties you’re seeing get bought may be going to investors with different financing, lower cost of capital, different rent assumptions, different management costs, or a completely different exit strategy.
I’d rather pass on ten properties that don’t make sense than buy one just because I’m getting impatient.
That said, it’s also worth stress-testing your own assumptions. Make sure your rents are realistic, utilities are assigned correctly, taxes and insurance are accurate, and you’re not double-counting expenses or using numbers that are more conservative than the market actually supports.
But if you tighten up the assumptions and the deal is still negative, I’d trust the numbers.
A bad deal doesn’t become a good deal just because somebody else bought it.
- Investor · Florence, AL · Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 0 votes3h
On that duplex, I would separate the utilities you can verify from any savings that would require new meters or a different billing arrangement. Keep the existing arrangement in the baseline. That shows the price needed for your long-term-rental strategy without assuming an operational change has already happened.
- 1hDrew SygitBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 13k+ posts · 9k+ votes
1) What metrics are you using?
2) Read below:
Can’t find a rental property that cashflows?
Many newbies analyze deal incorrectly 😣
You’re probably thinking you have to offer asking price – not true!
To determine what to offer on a rental property:
Determine reasonable market rent, NOT the highest!
· Deduct NEW property taxes (research change after you buy!)
· Deduct home insurance costs
· Deduct maintenance percentage, typically 10%
· Deduct vacancy+tenant nonperformance percentage
(we recommend 5% for Class A, 10% Class B, 20% Class C, good luck with Class D)· Deduct whatever dollar/percentage of cashflow you want
Now, what you have left over is the amount for debt service.
Enter it into a mortgage calculator, with current interest rate for an investment property, to determine your maximum mortgage amount.
Divide the mortgage amount by either 75% or 80%, depending on the required down payment percentage - this is your tentative Offer Price.
If the property needs repairs, you'll want to deduct 110%-120% of the estimated repairs from this amount.
Be sure to also research the ARV and make sure it's 10-20% higher than your tentative purchase price.
As long as the ARV checks out, this is your Offer Price.
It is probably significantly below the asking price. Who cares? If you pay more, you won't meet your metrics and will probably have negative cashflow and/or equity.
So, now you need to try to figure out why the seller is selling and how motivated they are:
- How long has the property been listed?
- How many price drops have there been?
- How beat-up does the property look?
- For MFR, how many vacancies and for how long?
- Etc.Keep in mind the bigger the gap between your Offer Price and the listed price, the less likely your offer will be accepted.
You may have to make 10, 20 or even 100 offers to get one accepted at the price that meets your numbers.
This is what all investors did BEFORE the Great Real Estate Crash of 2008-2010 spoiled newbies!
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