Why should I *not* invest in turnkey properties?

Why should I *not* invest in turnkey properties?

Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes

Hi everyone, I'm looking to start off in real estate investing. I've done a ton of research on BRRRR, flipping, wholesaling, and a bunch of other various strategies. They all have their various pros & cons. Given that I have a full time job that I don't want to leave (I have no desire to become a real estate agent, flip houses for a living, etc.), and given that I'd like to start off investing in real estate with little overhead, it seems like the best approach is to buy turnkey properties from a provider that I trust (and do all the research on, get reviews from other people, form a relationship with, etc.). I have a decent amount of equity in my primary residence that I can use to make my first few purchase. With my full time job, I can put a decent amount into savings each month such that I can buy multiple properties a year (aiming for ~$75k-$120k properties that would net 1% rent, rather than the 2% approach). I ran a bunch of numbers and it looks very feasible for me to build a decent portfolio over the course of 5-10 years with what appears to be little effort relative to managing rehabs, hunting for deals, etc.

Therefore, I'm pretty sold on the turnkey approach at this point. So I want to ask other people here: given your experience, what reasons can you give for *not* starting off with turnkey real estate? I'd like to know about horror stories, words of caution, things to watch out for, etc.

Thanks in advance!

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Real Estate Broker · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2009 · 575 posts · 496 votes
8y

Biggest mistake in TK buying that I see from OOS investors is looking ONLY at cash flow when making a decision on what to purchase.  Cash flow is just one aspect of a buy and hold.  It makes me cringe every time I hear an OOS investor say "Im looking for strictly cash-flow properties".   Equity should be the goal.  Not just cash flow.  Its a mindset thats needed from acquisition all the way to year 5 / year 10, etc.  

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  • Rental Property Investor · Dayton, OH · Member since 2015 · 312 posts · 273 votes
    8y

    At those purchase prices, you are probably seeking out of state buy and hold. The biggest risk is that at some point your property manager will become unwilling, or unable to deal with all the issues surrounding your properly in a way that makes you money. How are you going to right that ship so to speak from Orange, California? Second biggest problem is conflict of interest in regards purchase price, turnover, and repairs. The more these cost you, the more money your one stop shop makes.

  • Ottawa, IL · Member since 2016 · 242 posts · 107 votes
    8y

    @Carter J. - IMO, it would come down to purchase price. I wouldn't invest in something turnkey unless it was a great deal, and if it was turnkey and a great deal, I'd be questioning what was wrong. Granted, there's plenty of great deals that are in great condition out there, but those would be my concerns off the bat. Of course, your due diligence is part of it, but also, we all know with houses that no matter how much you do, you'll still have some surprises.

    Second, to @Gordon Starr's point, I would be concerned about the same things. First, the numbers have to be there. Net 1% wouldn't do it for me. What if some big expensive costs come up unexpectedly? How about if property manager or other prices exceed what you're thinking? What if you have a longer vacancy? Can you cover it. Here's the big one, what if you lose your job? If you've thought about this and have a plan, cool. For me, personally, that's too much risk for (and my final point) what gain? What's your long term goal here, to build a portfolio for what? If you're not looking to quit your job (which I think is what most people get into this for) what is your why? That's also important since you're not looking to get lots in rent monthly to replace your income. Is it to have that future security? The 1 house per kid concept? Just to hopefully cash on equity down the line? That answer is going to also provide the answer to if you should move forward or not.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y

    turn key is just something that has been coined to mean one stop shopping IE your seller is in the business of finding then renovating and then managing income properties generally SFR's .

    There is some safety in that for an out of state investor.. as in the turn key company...  "Investment home flipper" needs to protect their reputation.. so smooth operating rentals is how that is done.

    For me personally i would not mortgage the family home to buy investment property.. unless you have substantial cash savings to rescue you in the event of a poor experience  turn key or not.. 

    you can mitigate the experience by buying the top 1/3 of a given market not the bottom 1/3  top third returns are lower on paper.. bottom 1/3 they are higher on Paper.. but paper proforma s are not actual s... so just be cautious of investing for returns.. this can lead to buying tough to manage property and properties over the long haul that don't perform as suggested in the up front materials. or your BP calculator whatever you use to run your numbers.

  • Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes
    8y

    @Gordon Starr thanks for taking the time to respond. I really appreciate it.

    Yes, that's correct.

    That's a really good point. I haven't really seriously considered that.

    From what I understand, regarding buy & holds, the money is made during the buy. So if I only make offers (and stick to them, rather than becoming emotionally attached and giving in) for purchases that make the numbers work, I would think it would negate that risk. Am I missing something?

    Regarding turnover, I have baked in 10% vacancy into my estimates. From the properties I have evaluated, a bunch of them (a minority, not the majority) meet my requirements for cash flow. Given that they are 1% properties, it seemed like 10% was a good number to choose. Would others disagree? I don't want to fool myself into using bad numbers when evaluating a property's potential cash flow.

    Regarding repairs, this is a big unknown that I'm still trying to figure out. I would assume that my capital expenditures are going to be rare, but cost a lot. Therefore, I was imagining that I would need to keep a certain percentage per property saved up in the bank in liquid funds ready to spend on the repairs. Knowing my luck, I would get 20 properties, and they would all have some massive expense at the same time that isn't covered by the insurance I had purchased for the properties. I was considering baking in saving up 10% of the home value into an emergency account for each property. So in other words, let's say I have 20 properties, each valued at $100k. I would aim to have $200k (20 x 10% of $100k) set aside, ready to go at any point in the bank, to handle capital expenditures. Does 10% sound like enough?

    @Melissa Kirchhoff thank you for your insights, you bring up some concerns I hadn't quite been able to articulate. I appreciate you sharing your thoughts.

    Regarding this, I was planning on going through alternate methods of finding highly recommended contractors and/or assessors to independently assess what is wrong with each property before I buy it. Perhaps I'm living in a dream world and this isn't as practical as I would like to think. I know people keep knowledge of good contractors a secret, since they are hard to find. That's why I have to also consider finding independent assessors, though I haven't really heard of this so maybe that's not really a thing people can do. I'm still new to all this. Are there any recommendations you could make for how to independently assess whether or not a property is too good to be true?

    I'm planning on saving about 10% of the property's purchase price in an emergency account in case of unexpected capital expenses that insurance doesn't cover. Does that seem like enough or is that unreasonably low?

    Honestly, this isn't a big one for me. I plan on buying 40-60 properties over the next 10 years and so if I bake that amount into the numbers I run, I'll learn from the first few deals and be more conservative in the future. I'll certainly have fewer properties that match my numbers, but I believe I can learn from these situations.

    In this case, this is where I believe having multiple properties are going to really help. There will be dry months, but the more properties I have, the more the sum total of rentals can offset vacancy of others. With that said, I have baked in about 5% vacancy into each of the properties I have run, just to be safe.

    If I lose my job *and* there is vacancy, then similar to the above answer, I'd be able to rely on the extra money brought in by the other non-vacant rentals. Additionally, in order to pay my own mortgage, pay for living expenses (food, utilities, etc.), I have saved up 6 months of expenses in an emergency fund to handle that type of a situation. For my risk threshold, this should give me time to find another job to replace my current income.

    I want to build enough passive income to not only meet, but exceed my current W2 income. That way, once I'm comfortable with living off the passive rental income, I can not *have* to work. However, knowing me, I won't stop doing things, but at least if I want to take some time off, I am not forced to work if life throws curve balls at me.

    @Jay Hinrichs thanks for sharing your thoughts. I appreciate it.

    Yeah, this is what I'm counting on. I've been researching turnkey providers and have found really good recommendations for at least two of them from multiple people across BiggerPockets. I'm also doing thorough research of my own and comparing it to what the providers are saying, because if what they say doesn't match what I have found in my research, then I'm not going to trust them.

    This is a really good point. I have built up a bit of an emergency fund that should get me through the tough times. However, that said, your point is still really valid. Given that I have lots of family in the area who I know I can rely on in hard times, I know I'd at least have a place to sleep if we had to sell our house and for some reason couldn't afford to move out of the area and rent an affordable home. I'm mentally/emotionally prepared to lose our house in the worst case scenario. I'd like to avoid that if possible, though, hence why I have about a 6 month emergency fund and a bunch of recruiters I talk to on a regular basis to make sure I can find a job to replace my current income in the event of something like losing my job.

    I hadn't considered this. But it makes total sense. Thanks for this recommendation!

  • Stephanie MedellinBusiness Member
    Mortgage Broker · CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 644 votes
    8y

    @Carter J.  I'll start off by saying I have no experience buying turnkey investments - I am on the complete opposite side when it comes to investing.  I believe you make your money when you buy, and when you buy turnkey, you're buying at full retail cost.  I would always choose a bargain over retail.  Yes, bargains usually mean repairs and additional expenses, but it's usually less costly to buy cheap and repair than to buy retail.

    With a finished house, you never really know what's behind the walls.  Inspectors can't catch everything, and even honest sellers or turnkey providers may not be aware of every problem.  Less than honest turnkey companies can hide problems, make cosmetic fixes and not address the more costly issues.  You really do need to place an enormous amount of trust in someone that they are selling you a great investment.  Are you going to be visiting and evaluating these properties yourself, or buying sight unseen?  I imagine these properties are out of state, or at least not local,  based on the price points you mentioned.   

    Stephanie Medellin, Loan Factory58 Reviews
  • Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 997 votes
    8y

    @Carter J.  i prefer buying turnkey properties but the trouble is with the appraised value.  you are literally paying for the turnkey providers margin, which i think is fine, but an appraiser will have issue with that and likely to come up with a value less than asking price.  

  • Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes
    8y

    @Stephanie Medellin, thanks for your insights! I was hoping someone using a complete opposite strategy would jump in and share their thoughts. I really appreciate it.

    Yeah, I agree. I investigated the BRRRR strategy and/or doing rehabs and selling (no rental). I think in the long term, I'm willing to take that hit to the equity gain and accept that I really won't be getting great deals. For me, this is the trade-off for the convenience of not needing to manage rehabs. I totally agree that it is highly unlikely that I'll find better deals with turnkey than with doing rehabs. I think this is one of the downsides of turnkey investing that I have to accept if I go this route.

    These are really good points. I can't really think of any mitigations for them. I think if anything, this is a risk I need to consciously accept when choosing the turnkey route.

    Agreed. I think this is probably the biggest risk factor for me. Hence why I'm trying to do a bunch of due diligence with the turnkey providers I choose. Additionally, I'll be starting off with a small amount of properties and then slowly building out the portfolio as I gain confidence that the providers I've chosen are trustworthy and provide good packaged deals.

    Neither. I'll be requesting detailed photos and video walkthroughs from both the provider and an independent contractor/assessor. If the I am not satisfied with what I see or if the provider's walkthrough/pictures looks deceptively better than the contractor/assessor, then those are some pretty big red flags.

    @Patrick Britton you raise a very good point. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Agreed, and that's good to know that the appraiser will likely appraise it at less than what the turnkey provider will assess it. I hadn't really considered that as something to prepare for.

  • Johnston, IA · Member since 2016 · 129 posts · 50 votes
    8y

    @Carter J. What's your main objective right now? Cash flow, appreciation, equity, active vs passive investing? But you're in the right place to seek answers amongst like minded people! Like @Patrick Britton, I too only invest Turnkey because I invest OOS and that method works for me.

  • Developer · Nashville, TN · Member since 2016 · 484 posts · 406 votes
    8y

    Disclaimer:  TK Provider

    @Carter J. - It looks like you have a good plan.  

    You should NOT invest in TK's if you have the time, knowledge, and relationships to do it yourself. AND, you actually have to have the inclination. Some people are just busy, and their time/effort resources are best directed towards OTHER things that they do better. This is a part of the equation that many investors leave out. Any time you take on a BRRRR, there are lost opportunities elsewhere. This all has to be weighed out by the individual...everyone is different.

    There is no hard and fast rule for every situation.  Each deal MUST stand on its own merit.  In the lower priced properties in our area ($45-70K), we are able to produce a better product (with a warranty), and a better management experience than what most OOS investors can do on their own.  This is because we operate on volume, and economies of scale.  With our own crews, we are able to buy for less, rehab better and for less, and manage more effectively.  We also don't have big markups.  

    It should be noted, this would NOT be true in the more expensive properties, where there is more "meat on the bone," and the investor and/or turnkey company has the opportunity to buy at a deeper discount from the end price.  That is where you might see some "forced equity."  

    And with all due respect to @Stephanie Medellin, buying ANY investment property is not a "retail" purchase. Investors all over the world that are looking to buy/hold, are mostly concerned with PERFORMANCE of the property vs its value. The deeper concern about value is NOT appreciation...its is having a solid exit strategy, in case you need to generate cash. This is the exact reason why we stick to mostly SFH's, as they are relatively easy to sell through our network and/or the MLS....and yes, for similar pricing to what the investor has paid.

    Additionally, a 3rd party inspection CAN go a long way towards understanding the overall condition of a property.  Further, a warranty on rehab work (if offered) is also another nice way to make sure that you're getting something solid.  

    That said, @Patrick Britton is correct in that all of these properties are subject to the whims of the random assignment of appraisers.  In our case, our investors don't seem to care, as the price-to-rent ratios of these lesser priced properties are excellent.  So, the cash flow performance makes up for any variances in appraisal.  Because these properties are inexpensive, most investors pay cash, or wait until they have a few, then refi as a package.

    In ALL cases, across ALL property classes, it's always a good idea to be holding multiple properties, so the risk can be spread, and the law of averages can be working in your favor.  We look at our job as helping investors with the balancing act....getting the best performance with the least amount of risk.

  • Real Estate Broker · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2009 · 575 posts · 496 votes
    8y

    Biggest mistake in TK buying that I see from OOS investors is looking ONLY at cash flow when making a decision on what to purchase.  Cash flow is just one aspect of a buy and hold.  It makes me cringe every time I hear an OOS investor say "Im looking for strictly cash-flow properties".   Equity should be the goal.  Not just cash flow.  Its a mindset thats needed from acquisition all the way to year 5 / year 10, etc.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Dayton, OH · Member since 2015 · 312 posts · 273 votes
    8y

    This was the picture turnkey in 2009 going for 51 k in low cost, high demo part of dayton, OH. Huge cash flow projected.

    Here is the picture I took earlier this month after buying the place at auction for 7k. Thats a total loss for previous owner's.

  • Real Estate Broker · Detroit, MI · Member since 2014 · 384 posts · 149 votes
    8y
    @Carter Jones Based off your passive approach there is NO reason NOT to invest in Turnkeys. I will say that maintence costs need to be scrutinized. If there is a “leak” that is where it will be.
  • Rental Property Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 893 votes
    8y

    @Carter J. 

    Full disclosure.. I do sell out of state rentals as my primary business...

    IMO:

    I would make sure the properties are bringing in a high enough return. Don't go buying turnkey if it's going to be a 1% deal somewhere, there's no money in that and your margin for error is too low. Not too many markets get you 2% deals, but those deals do exist in viable markets where turnover is not a huge issue. 1.5% deals in C+, B-, and even B assets are possible too. Just not very common.

    I tell fellow CA investors this all the time- be careful with out of state. Stuff seems so cheap to us due to the relative price difference, but there are still a lot of bad cheap investments out there amongst the progressively fewer good ones. 

  • Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes
    8y

    @Nicole Hoss, thanks for your response.

    Lots of cash flow. I'd like to build up enough to be able to entirely replace and surpass my W2 earnings. Appreciation and equity are not major factors for me. If there is appreciation, great. But I am not basing my future investment goals off of any appreciation whatsoever.

    @Jeff Schechter, thanks for that excellent explanation. It's really helpful.

    This is my approach. While I would love to get great deals (in terms of equity/value), I think I'm a bit inexperienced to be able to manage finding a great equity/value deal while also getting a good cash flow deal, all the while maintaining my normal W2 job.

    This is really good to know. This is also what I've been looking at, but only because I'm not really familiar with anything else. This is a great point regarding a benefit of SFHs.

    I never thought of it this way. Great point!

    This is my strategy. I know I'll get a few bad equity/value deals. I've accepted that. As long as the sum total of all my investments are averaging good cash returns, I'll be happy.

    This is what I've heard. Thank you for the confirmation.

    @Ryan Mullin, thanks for sharing your thoughts. I really appreciate it.

    This is a great point. I'll bear this in mind and make sure that the value of the home makes sense for the purchase price point. I certainly don't want to get sold an overpriced house just because its cash flow looks good.

    @Gordon Starr, that's really interesting. Thanks for posting that.

    @Jabari Long, thanks for the warning about maintence costs. It's something I'm trying to be wary of and bake into my numbers when evaluating deals. Solid point.

    @Account Closed, you bring up some great points. Thanks for the warnings. Much appreciated.

  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    @Carter J. given your circumstances that you describe, there is no reason not to work with a good, reputable turn key company. Turn key isn't for everyone. For those that insist on having built in equity from the start, it won't work. But for people like you who are out of state, don't have a lot of experience and are busy with jobs and families, it's the only realistic way to go and has the least risk. The key is working with the right turn key company in whatever market you choose.

  • Real Estate Coach · Venice Beach, CA · Member since 2012 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    For the most part I started with turnkeys and I wouldn't have done it any other way, in hindsight. I think turnkeys are great for newer folks (lets you learn the basics without overwhelming you with more advanced stuff) and as long as you are willing to do due diligence, I see no reason why I newer person shouldn't do them. Plus all the reasons you mention--turnkeys are great for letting you invest in real estate without taking on a second job.

    Here's general pros and cons-

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/buy-rehab...

    I have other articles, some on turnkeys for newer investors specifically, but feel free to ask any questions and I can send whatever article works or answer the question myself.

  • Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes
    8y

    @Mike D'Arrigo, thanks for your insights and confirmation about my risk estimates. It's been somewhat difficult to balance the right amount of risk to take vs the payoff, and what to value in the beginning stages vs as I get more experienced. I appreciate your thoughts on this.

    @Ali Boone, thanks for sharing! It's funny you share that link. I had read that very blog post that you wrote prior to me starting this forum thread. It was actually a major part of what inspired me to seriously consider doing turnkeys. Thank you for writing it and sharing your thoughts! I really appreciate it.

  • Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y

    @Carter J. if you are able to save more than $30k a year or have substantial liquidity (over 200k), being a landlord and especially flipping is a lot of work. Do the math with 300 dollars per property (2 months of work to buy a turnkey rental) you are going to need 20-40 of these to replace your income. I have 10 of these and have systems in place but have 1-2 evictions a year and 3-4 big things that happen. Image if I had 30, just 3 x those numbers.

  • Orange County, CA · Member since 2018 · 9 posts · 0 votes
    8y

    @Lane Kawaoka, thanks for your words of caution. I can imagine the eviction process would be a massive headache (and costly as well). That's one of the reasons I'm looking for upper B neighborhoods if possible. My cash flow will be reduced, but statistically I expect on average there will be fewer headaches. No idea if that'll actually be the case or not, but I guess I'll find out.

  • Real Estate Coach · Venice Beach, CA · Member since 2012 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Carter J.:

    @Mike D'Arrigo, thanks for your insights and confirmation about my risk estimates. It's been somewhat difficult to balance the right amount of risk to take vs the payoff, and what to value in the beginning stages vs as I get more experienced. I appreciate your thoughts on this.

    @Ali Boone, thanks for sharing! It's funny you share that link. I had read that very blog post that you wrote prior to me starting this forum thread. It was actually a major part of what inspired me to seriously consider doing turnkeys. Thank you for writing it and sharing your thoughts! I really appreciate it.

    Haha...you're very welcome! It's a small [blog/forum] world :)

  • Rental Property Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y
    Personally I never understood "turnkey" property investing. You're only investing in cash flow, since the usual market and price point on these properties rarely appreciate. If your investing for passive income, invest in notes. You get similar returns on your cash, without any of the headaches of dealing with tenants, management companies, etc....
  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Jason D.:
    Personally I never understood "turnkey" property investing. You're only investing in cash flow, since the usual market and price point on these properties rarely appreciate. If your investing for passive income, invest in notes. You get similar returns on your cash, without any of the headaches of dealing with tenants, management companies, etc....

     Jason, turn key offers more than cash flow. You're totally ignoring the equity through mortgage pay-down and then of course the depreciation tax benefit that you don't get through notes. It's also not valid to say that there is no appreciation. I can't speak for all markets but I've been doing this in Indianapolis and Kansas City for several years and there has been tremendous appreciation. The appreciation rate is slowing down but that's the case in most markets now.

  • Rental Property Investor · St. Petersburg, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8y
    @Mike D'Arrigo I understand the additional benefits, but most of the time, were talking sub $100k properties, sometimes sub $50k properties. Theres no appreciation in those markets at those prices. Pay down is minimal and depreciation is minimal at that price point as well. I have an out of state rental and it's a ton of stress, and I paid well below market, was hands on in the rehab and tenant screening, and I chose the management company. I couldnt imagine the stress of doing that, but paying market, or above market price, plus having to trust a vertically integrated company to have my best interests in mind through all of those phases.
  • Mike D'ArrigoPro Member
    Turn key provider · San Jose, CA · Member since 2010 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8y

    @Jason D. I completely agree with you about the cheap low end properties. In fact, you're generally not even going to get any cash flow on those. The maintenance and CAP Ex as a percent of the rent alone make the numbers not work, not to mention the vacancies and tenant caused damages. That class of property just doesn't work for the out of state investor whether it's turn key or they do everything themselves.

  • Kansas City MO · Member since 2014 · 357 posts · 349 votes
    8y

    @Carter J.  I don't have a problem with turnkey and I think in theory it could be nice. The problem I have with it is they usually invest in bad neighborhoods to get those returns on paper to look good. And I've seen that end in disaster for more than one investor @Gordon Starr example of the photo is pretty spot on. Usually with a bad neighborhood there is no appreciation and one thing goes wrong and you're screwed..owe more than the house is worth. And when you're dealing with a really low tenant class you'll have issues you never dreamed possible. Some real life examples from people I know ...burning a garage down to the ground, in a multi-family one guy robbing the other tenants/building/handymen, one guy getting arrested cause he was kicking his girlfriend in the face in the common area of an apartment building, squatters, drugs, stealing copper and electrical first time the house is vacant, not paying rent, evictions, homeless people sleeping in the lobby, smearing poop all over the house when they got evicted, flea infestation, sneaking bad aggressive dogs in...could go on but you get the picture. I've known personally of about 3 investors who walked away from their ghetto turnkeys at about 50% of what they paid and were happy to walk away. And a couple bought from a popular turnkey company on BP that has good reviews. 

    I wouldn't discount looking on the MLS in addition to looking at turnkeys. I'd also put alot of time into choosing an area that you feel has potential to appreciate where you also get a decent return. Cash-flow and appreciation don't have to be mutually exclusive. Appreciation is important and your insurance policy if things goes bad and your icing on the cake if things go well. I know a guy who lost tens of thousand from bad property mngt on a 12 plex but then he made hundreds of thousands from the appreciation.

    My experience has always been the more I put into something the more I got out and with turnkeys you're trusting someone else's judgement, opinion and expertise on just about everything with your property and most people (not all) I've met and worked with on my own investments have NOT had my best interest at heart  ..they've only had their best interest....which is why I like to be hands on & not blindly trusting people.  Just another opinion :) 

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