https://www.dailywire.com/news...
The continued rising costs in the housing market have caused the Federal Reserve to warn of a housing bubble, something not seen since just before the market crash of 2008. Phillips said this means the Federal Reserve sees people overpaying for houses causing a “market exuberance.” The Federal Reserve called the exuberance “unhinged from fundamentals” and “abnormal … for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.”
Now, the Federal Reserve is warning about a housing bubble.
Housing prices have spiked 25% over the past year, and since 2012, the cost of a new house has doubled, Phillips explained. “Cities with the biggest spikes were Phoenix AZ, Miami FL, and Tampa FL, but overall, it was houses in southeastern states that saw the largest spike in 2021,” said Phillips to “Morning Wire” hosts Georgia Howe and John Bickley. “But again, it’s really everywhere across the country.” Including Texas and California
Looks to me like we are at "Euphoria" sliding toward "Anxiety" - hang on for the ride

Anyone waiting around for a repeat of 2008 is going to be very disappointed. Buyers may be paying too much right now, but these loans were underwritten well. If someone has no money, no skin in a property, is underwater, and has an unsustainable adjustable interest rate mortgage they walk away and go into foreclosure. This time around borrowers had good credit, good jobs, have skin in their properties via down payments, reserve funds, and a locked in low interest rate 30 year loan. If the value of their house drops, so what? They keep paying the mortgage and life goes on.
I keep thinking about supply and demand. There's very little supply and an outrageous amount of demand. Sure, rising interest rates or some unforeseen event could cause prices to drop. But then everyone would just stay put. No foreclosure crisis this time.
Ok so the daily wire is NOT a good/credible source of real estate industry infomation.
This is your classic opinion host blog post, very little data, and half of what they quote is just plain worng. Case in point rates have never been at 2% as quoted, just under 3% was the lowest.
The only metrics that really matter when you try to look for a housing bubble are affordability (still excellent in my market, yellow flags on the west coast) and inventory (all time low).
Supply and demand are the basic drivers, and yes higher rates should cool off the market. At the moment they just create more urgency with buyers to get something before they go even higher.
A better source of information is BP's market updates on YourTube (Dave is excellent!) or my very own channel specifically for Milwaukee.
Anyone waiting around for a repeat of 2008 is going to be very disappointed. Buyers may be paying too much right now, but these loans were underwritten well. If someone has no money, no skin in a property, is underwater, and has an unsustainable adjustable interest rate mortgage they walk away and go into foreclosure. This time around borrowers had good credit, good jobs, have skin in their properties via down payments, reserve funds, and a locked in low interest rate 30 year loan. If the value of their house drops, so what? They keep paying the mortgage and life goes on.
I keep thinking about supply and demand. There's very little supply and an outrageous amount of demand. Sure, rising interest rates or some unforeseen event could cause prices to drop. But then everyone would just stay put. No foreclosure crisis this time.
Ok so the daily wire is NOT a good/credible source of real estate industry infomation.
This is your classic opinion host blog post, very little data, and half of what they quote is just plain worng. Case in point rates have never been at 2% as quoted, just under 3% was the lowest.
The only metrics that really matter when you try to look for a housing bubble are affordability (still excellent in my market, yellow flags on the west coast) and inventory (all time low).
Supply and demand are the basic drivers, and yes higher rates should cool off the market. At the moment they just create more urgency with buyers to get something before they go even higher.
A better source of information is BP's market updates on YourTube (Dave is excellent!) or my very own channel specifically for Milwaukee.
That would put you in the "Denial" stage. ;-)
I know, "It's different this time".
Well this market is completely unsustainable, and its only a matter of time until things shift, but there is no such thing as a "national" market. I work two very different markets, and I have extremely different expectations for the two.
I have been seeing some questionable loan products for a few years now - I don't think lenders have learned anything. If something happens they know government is coming with our money to rescue them. So I don't think we can count on the bankers to keep the market out of trouble LOL. There's simply too much corporate greed - they will absolutely bend the rules for profit - guaranteed.
Also, inflation is affecting everyone. When everything costs a lot more, the dollar doesn't go as far anymore. This will 100% impact the real estate market, as will rising rates, and the backlog of foreclosed inventory that is starting to be released, as well as many people failing out of forbearance and loan workouts and having to sell. More inventory will soften demand, just as more buyers are being priced out of the market due to rising prices, rising interest rates, and a devalued dollar. The market will turn. It always does.
To what extent and when exactly is unknown, but I suspect soon. And again it will be very market specific.
Of my two states, I do expect CT to have severe issues - that state is broke and will become even more taxed as a result and there has been mass exodus out of the state for years already. Severe lockdowns and local government interference with free market during the pandemic have only made that situation worse. FL on the other hand has a very strong economy now, and the amount of migration into the state is at an all time high - at least here in Jacksonville. The growth here is insane. I do not believe Jacksonville will take any big hit anytime soon, if only due to that alone.
But then again, who knows what the next "big crisis" will be and what impact that will have on all this. And yes my crystal ball eludes me, but there's my 2 cents.
So many people want a repeat of the 2008 bursting bubble because they have regret over either 1. not having purchased any real estate or 2. not having purchased more real estate while the market was bottoming out. Because of this pent up demand, that is salivating for another "once in a lifetime" opportunity, I doubt we will see it again anytime soon. That being said, make sure you're storing away some dry powder just in case it does happen.
The irony - the Fed helped cause the unhinging!
The national real estate market has already dropped once in the last 200 years, why wouldn’t it drop again in the next 200 years? The people spouting the next big crash 10 years ago just need a 50% crash so they can pay 100% more than they could paid back then. I’m sure a crash is possible if interest rates hit 15-20% again, AND they defeat inflation, AND everyone decides they’d rather live outside or in a crowded apartment.
They spoke of record low inventory 2 years ago when we had 1.8million homes. Insanely low inventory last year when it was 1.25million. So what is it now when it’s about 1 million? Except sellers with paid off homes or doing a massive downsize, who’s selling? If you have a $400k mortgage locked in at 2.5% (1580/mo) and the new rates are 4%, you could downsize to a $340k loan and only have your payment of up $50/mo. But if you want to upgrade a VERY slightly nice home with a $500k mortgage your payment goes up more than 50% to $2380. If you have money you’ll keep it as a rental or for family or a vacation, if you don’t, you’ll stay put.
Anyone who’s serious, give me a date by which housing will drop at least 30%, all the way back to 2020 prices. Unless of course the drop doesn’t happen until next year in which case they drop back to last years prices. A national 5% price drop would be the third largest in US history? 2nd? So all the way back to January prices?
Just a question... are the ones who are most fervently defending this market and insisting that it can't crash the same ones that would be hurt the most if it did? Realtors, lenders, etc.?
If we accept that the market is grossly inflated and that the country is in a very bad place economically/ financially, that could cause a shift in public opinion and start the inevitable downturn. Denying it is likely swaying public opinion and postponing the inevitable.
So many people want a repeat of the 2008 bursting bubble because they have regret over either 1. not having purchased any real estate or 2. not having purchased more real estate while the market was bottoming out. Because of this pent up demand, that is salivating for another "once in a lifetime" opportunity, I doubt we will see it again anytime soon. That being said, make sure you're storing away some dry powder just in case it does happen.
Too many people are waiting on a second "once in a lifetime" opportunity in a matter of 15 years. The price growth is unsustainable. At some point, a swath of people will not qualify for 900k or 500k or 682k homes (market dependent, I know) and the demand will began to die down. Underwriting is solid and subprime loans are largely a thing of the past. Leading into the crash, subprime loans were increasing each year and made up about 25%-35% of the market give or take and is somewhere around 5% depending on what source you use.
Average credit score is roughly 710, up from the 680s around the time of the crash. The 3 C's of lending are intact so if there's a crash as so many Nostradamus investors have been predicting since 2011, then it won't be because of lending.
The first C is character—the applicant's credit history.
The second C is capacity—the applicant's debt-to-income ratio.
The third C is capital—the amount of money an applicant has.
Supply and demand are the market drivers, not unscrupulous lenders, NINJA loans and unqualified buyers making minimum wage buying homes worth 500k with $0 down on a 5/1 ARM.
The national real estate market has already dropped once in the last 200 years, why wouldn’t it drop again in the next 200 years? The people spouting the next big crash 10 years ago just need a 50% crash so they can pay 100% more than they could paid back then. I’m sure a crash is possible if interest rates hit 15-20% again, AND they defeat inflation, AND everyone decides they’d rather live outside or in a crowded apartment.
They spoke of record low inventory 2 years ago when we had 1.8million homes. Insanely low inventory last year when it was 1.25million. So what is it now when it’s about 1 million? Except sellers with paid off homes or doing a massive downsize, who’s selling? If you have a $400k mortgage locked in at 2.5% (1580/mo) and the new rates are 4%, you could downsize to a $340k loan and only have your payment of up $50/mo. But if you want to upgrade a VERY slightly nice home with a $500k mortgage your payment goes up more than 50% to $2380. If you have money you’ll keep it as a rental or for family or a vacation, if you don’t, you’ll stay put.
Anyone who’s serious, give me a date by which housing will drop at least 30%, all the way back to 2020 prices. Unless of course the drop doesn’t happen until next year in which case they drop back to last years prices. A national 5% price drop would be the third largest in US history? 2nd? So all the way back to January prices?
^^^This. I'm happy to take bets from people who think they can predict the date of the next crash. Is another crash possible? Of course. Anything can happen. But "possible" and "likely" are not synonymous. It's also possible I hit the lottery next week. Not likely at all, but possible nonetheless. As an investor, it'd be great to see 3% rates on 2011 prices. Again, this is possible because anything can happen at any time. Is it likely, probably not.
@Tom O. what makes you so confident that supply won't increase? Is your position that the current inventory levels are going to stay where they are permanently? If not, when do you suppose they'll increase?
It's well within the realm of possibilities that sales will slow due to rates in the 5's and creeping to the 6's. Historically inventory levels increase in the spring/ summer months. A vast majority of home sales are through financing, not cash. Therefore, if financing becomes difficult/ impossible for some, that could have a significant impact on buying power of the purchasers.
Do you think that people having life changing events that force them to sell is all of a sudden going to stop?
I think we will have low inventory for at least two more years as supply chain kinks effecting home builders get worked out. We can't even get molding for the new floor we just put in our rental property. There are so many owners/investors that will hold on to their 2.25-2.75 rates for dear life and are not going to be selling, thus contributing to the low supply problem. Mortgage interest rates rising will cause some buyers to back off, but there are still plenty of investors with a lot of cash on hand or needing to do a 1031 exchange that will benefit from less competition. I think home prices will stabilize, but not fall off a cliff or anything. As it stands there are still motivated buyers who would rather attempt a home purchase this year than keep renting and have their rents go up annually.
Ok so the daily wire is NOT a good/credible source of real estate industry infomation.
This is your classic opinion host blog post, very little data, and half of what they quote is just plain worng. Case in point rates have never been at 2% as quoted, just under 3% was the lowest.
The only metrics that really matter when you try to look for a housing bubble are affordability (still excellent in my market, yellow flags on the west coast) and inventory (all time low).
Supply and demand are the basic drivers, and yes higher rates should cool off the market. At the moment they just create more urgency with buyers to get something before they go even higher.
A better source of information is BP's market updates on YourTube (Dave is excellent!) or my very own channel specifically for Milwaukee.
That would put you in the "Denial" stage. ;-)
I know, "It's different this time".
Well, that's your opinion... ;-)
"In god we trust, all others bring data."
Ok so the daily wire is NOT a good/credible source of real estate industry infomation.
This is your classic opinion host blog post, very little data, and half of what they quote is just plain worng. Case in point rates have never been at 2% as quoted, just under 3% was the lowest.
The only metrics that really matter when you try to look for a housing bubble are affordability (still excellent in my market, yellow flags on the west coast) and inventory (all time low).
Supply and demand are the basic drivers, and yes higher rates should cool off the market. At the moment they just create more urgency with buyers to get something before they go even higher.
A better source of information is BP's market updates on YourTube (Dave is excellent!) or my very own channel specifically for Milwaukee.
That would put you in the "Denial" stage. ;-)
I know, "It's different this time".
Well, that's your opinion... ;-)
"In god we trust, all others bring data."
The problem lies in HELOCs over the past 5 years. I see a BIG problem in 10 years.
keep in mind, the investor can afford higher prices. Multi family hasn’t even topped out yet imo.
Section 8 where I’m from:
3 bedroom - $2800
2 bedroom - $2500
1 Bedroom - $1950
Studio - $1300
They are trying to force affordable housing.
Just a question... are the ones who are most fervently defending this market and insisting that it can't crash the same ones that would be hurt the most if it did? Realtors, lenders, etc.?
If we accept that the market is grossly inflated and that the country is in a very bad place economically/ financially, that could cause a shift in public opinion and start the inevitable downturn. Denying it is likely swaying public opinion and postponing the inevitable.
Great question actually, Greg! Let's talk about "defending the market".
My team closed 95 transactions last year and we would very much prefer for the market to slow down! Here is why:
It is tough for buyers agents to write offers on deals when you compete against 15 offers! You did all the work, but 14 agents did not get paid. Also not fun when I am on the listing side: 15 offers x 25 pages = 375 pages to print, read, mark up and present to the seller. I'd much rather have 2 offers to present!
So no, I have no benefit in pouring gas on the fire. As an active buy and hold investor I would also like to see the market slow down. I pay literally twice for the same house what I have paid 10 years ago. We buy several houses every year.
And no end in sight. Milwaukee has a housing shortage - we have 300,000 Millennials, who have aged into home buying years (the oldest are 39 now, married, kids) - we have a market of about 10,000 SF homes per year. Tell me how that is going to work! And Millennials are not the only buyers!
We do have new construction; 1678 units last year. That is a drop in the bucket. Plus, these new houses are all 500-700k and up compared to our 250k median. Not much help!
My hope is that rising interest rates slow down the market eventually; so far not much. We have about 60 active buyers and not one has thrown in the towel as far as we know. I'll be the first to post when I see things slowing down!
Ok so the daily wire is NOT a good/credible source of real estate industry infomation.
This is your classic opinion host blog post, very little data, and half of what they quote is just plain worng. Case in point rates have never been at 2% as quoted, just under 3% was the lowest.
The only metrics that really matter when you try to look for a housing bubble are affordability (still excellent in my market, yellow flags on the west coast) and inventory (all time low).
Supply and demand are the basic drivers, and yes higher rates should cool off the market. At the moment they just create more urgency with buyers to get something before they go even higher.
A better source of information is BP's market updates on YourTube (Dave is excellent!) or my very own channel specifically for Milwaukee.
That would put you in the "Denial" stage. ;-)
I know, "It's different this time".
Well, that's your opinion... ;-)
"In god we trust, all others bring data."
The problem lies in HELOCs over the past 5 years. I see a BIG problem in 10 years.
keep in mind, the investor can afford higher prices. Multi family hasn’t even topped out yet imo.
Section 8 where I’m from:
3 bedroom - $2800
2 bedroom - $2500
1 Bedroom - $1950
Studio - $1300
They are trying to force affordable housing.
I follow HELOC utilization on a national level, they are growing, but actual utilization is still relatively low. Also, people are not using HELOCs to pay for vacations to Disney or consolidate credit card debt (that was a thing back in 2006) - - I don't follow you thought on section 8 though.
Can you please explain?
I am concerned about the equity gap! Last year the average US home owner gained 55k for doing nothing, compared to the young coupe that rented. This gap is going to widen and I can't even try to imagine what this will look like over 10 years. That is not sustainable and VERY concerning!
Let me be clear: what we are seeing now is IMO neither healthy nor sustainable! But the damage was done after 2008 when we shut down new home construction, sent the contracts to become amazon workers or move to States that were fracking oil and gas wells (remember that??).
There was nobody who noticed that we produced viewer houses than in ANY other decade since your parents were born - and now we act surprised!
<end of rant> LOL
Housing is overpriced due in large part to the Feds policies, so thx for telling us housing is inflated Fed. Like an arsonist pointing out the building they set on fire.
That being said a strong case can be made that leveraged real estate is the ultimate bet against the dollar. And I do believe the dollars days are numbered as the one reserve currency in the world. We can thank the fed for that too with a big assist from congress and voters.
Anyone waiting around for a repeat of 2008 is going to be very disappointed. Buyers may be paying too much right now, but these loans were underwritten well. If someone has no money, no skin in a property, is underwater, and has an unsustainable adjustable interest rate mortgage they walk away and go into foreclosure. This time around borrowers had good credit, good jobs, have skin in their properties via down payments, reserve funds, and a locked in low interest rate 30 year loan. If the value of their house drops, so what? They keep paying the mortgage and life goes on.
I keep thinking about supply and demand. There's very little supply and an outrageous amount of demand. Sure, rising interest rates or some unforeseen event could cause prices to drop. But then everyone would just stay put. No foreclosure crisis this time.
And why do you believe that all Bubbles pop for the same reason?
There are many reasons Bubbles pop, not all have to do with supply and demand.
You really have to dive into the analytics a little more than that. A 25% bump on a 150k home in Texas is way different than a 25% bump in a 900k home in California. Real estate is regional and different when you look individual metro areas. If you live in an area that has limited supply of housing/doors, growing jobs, growing population, lower cost of living compared to the the national average, you most likely will have limited impact due to those factors. For example, I live in San Antonio Texas and during the 2007-2010 crisis the lending market froze for a couple of months and values went flat (maybe a 3-5% decrease) for about 6 months. After 6 months, the values rebounded rapidly and values started to go up again due to demand, low supply of housing/doors, job growth, population growth, low cost of living etc... I sold 2 SF properties in 2008 for above asking price and got multiple offers during the crash. Bottom line, don't go off the national numbers since real estate is based on local markets. To lower your risk, invest based on location, supply and demand, job growth, affordability, population growth, etc... Another way to lower risk is to invest in properties that have equity and are cash flowing so you can hold the property and still make returns during a potential slow down.
Wall St created this with much assistance from the fed. They have created the perfect storm. Hedge your bets. The dollar is falling.
So many people want a repeat of the 2008 bursting bubble because they have regret over either 1. not having purchased any real estate or 2. not having purchased more real estate while the market was bottoming out. Because of this pent up demand, that is salivating for another "once in a lifetime" opportunity, I doubt we will see it again anytime soon. That being said, make sure you're storing away some dry powder just in case it does happen.
So many people want a repeat of the 2008 bursting bubble because they have regret over either 1. not having purchased any real estate or 2. not having purchased more real estate while the market was bottoming out. Because of this pent up demand, that is salivating for another "once in a lifetime" opportunity, I doubt we will see it again anytime soon. That being said, make sure you're storing away some dry powder just in case it does happen.
This is the whole point. Credit disappears and everyone who thinks the only thing that changes is housing prices, has not lived through the real thing.
https://www.dailywire.com/news...
The continued rising costs in the housing market have caused the Federal Reserve to warn of a housing bubble, something not seen since just before the market crash of 2008. Phillips said this means the Federal Reserve sees people overpaying for houses causing a “market exuberance.” The Federal Reserve called the exuberance “unhinged from fundamentals” and “abnormal … for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.”
Now, the Federal Reserve is warning about a housing bubble.
Housing prices have spiked 25% over the past year, and since 2012, the cost of a new house has doubled, Phillips explained. “Cities with the biggest spikes were Phoenix AZ, Miami FL, and Tampa FL, but overall, it was houses in southeastern states that saw the largest spike in 2021,” said Phillips to “Morning Wire” hosts Georgia Howe and John Bickley. “But again, it’s really everywhere across the country.” Including Texas and California
Looks to me like we are at "Euphoria" sliding toward "Anxiety" - hang on for the ride

I sold a beachfront house in Panama City Beach about 3 years ago for 1.1 million dollars. It sold a year later (7/20) for 1.025 million or 75k less. The Zestimate is now $1,877,900. Zillow says "Last 30-day change + $318,235 (+20.4 %)". 300k+ in 30 days!! If that's not a bubble nothing is. Anyone want to buy a tulip?
Gary