Is AirDNA data legit?
Member since 2022 · 12 posts · 6 votes
Is AirDNA data legit?
Most Popular Reply
Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votesQuote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?
Luke and Avery Carl have written extensively about this, but here are my thoughts:
My goal is to find properties that are underperforming their peers by a significant amount. Properties in the Smokies are generally sold at a multiple of 9 to 11 times annual rents. I don't want to find the best performer in an area; I want to find the worst, buy it at a discount, and then get to work on making it perform at average or better for the peer group.
I do the following in my analysis of a subject property:
1. Check the VRBO rates and calendars for similar properties nearby.
2. Ascertain if the property has underperformed due to appearance: Is it out of date? Does it need a fresh coat of paint? New furnishings?
3. Is the property playing to its strengths or hiding from them?
3. Has the property underperformed due to lack of amenities?
Back in 2010, I purchased a cabin that was over 200 years old on the Roaring Fork River in Gatlinburg. It was a complete dump, with furnishings that looked like they came from the 1970s (and probably did). Nasty carpet, cheap fixtures, mini blinds.
When I bought it, I spent about $30,000 doing a mini-renovation. My goal was to play up to the fact that it was an old cabin rather than hiding it. Took out all of the carpet, restored all of the old hardwood floors underneath, bought nice leather furnishings and blended them with functional antiques, placed a beautiful antique persian rug in the living room, replaced all lighting with early 1900s look.
After the mini-renovation, the annual rental income tripled.
I am currently completing a $50,000 renovation on a cabin in Cosby that I purchased in October. I believe my rental income will increase by at least 50 percent when I am done.
27 Replies
- Lender · Mesa, AZ · Member since 2018 · 69 posts · 24 votes3y
Hey Joe, I bought my STR (airbnb property) about a year ago and relied on Airdna for rent data. I was actually just thinking about airdna this morning and how it seemed to paint a better picture then what I am currently seeing.
There are alot of factors that go into STRs these days. It seems that the Boom is over for most as there are very saturated markets, let people working remotely, amongst other factors. I am in Arizona and will probably give it one more year. - 3yRyan MoyerBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
AirDNA's revenue projection includes cleaning fees, while manually combining ADR * Occupancy does not. So if you're using AirDNA's projected revenue then you will need to project cleaning expenses to subtract out.
Also note that AirDNA's data is based on trailing data for the last year. So you're getting projections based on last year's market. That may not matter in normal times, but when the market is in a period of fast change (as some would argue it is right now) it's worth factoring in.
Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews - 3yAndrew SteffensBusiness MemberTampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
I agree with the above thoughts, and my thinking is AirDNA is a tool like any other. I treat it similar to a Zillow Estimate. I start with that number and increase or decrease depending onv what the closest comps do, etc.
Vacation Rentals of Florida53 Reviews - 3yCollin HaysBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
- Member since 2022 · 12 posts · 6 votes3y
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?
- Rental Property Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2023 · 163 posts · 95 votes3y
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
I second this.
AirDna pulls directly from Airbnb, so yes, the data is correct. However, they use their own tools and algorithms to make predictions, similar to Zillow Zestimate and we know what happened with that :)
- 3yCollin HaysBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?
Luke and Avery Carl have written extensively about this, but here are my thoughts:
My goal is to find properties that are underperforming their peers by a significant amount. Properties in the Smokies are generally sold at a multiple of 9 to 11 times annual rents. I don't want to find the best performer in an area; I want to find the worst, buy it at a discount, and then get to work on making it perform at average or better for the peer group.
I do the following in my analysis of a subject property:
1. Check the VRBO rates and calendars for similar properties nearby.
2. Ascertain if the property has underperformed due to appearance: Is it out of date? Does it need a fresh coat of paint? New furnishings?
3. Is the property playing to its strengths or hiding from them?
3. Has the property underperformed due to lack of amenities?
Back in 2010, I purchased a cabin that was over 200 years old on the Roaring Fork River in Gatlinburg. It was a complete dump, with furnishings that looked like they came from the 1970s (and probably did). Nasty carpet, cheap fixtures, mini blinds.
When I bought it, I spent about $30,000 doing a mini-renovation. My goal was to play up to the fact that it was an old cabin rather than hiding it. Took out all of the carpet, restored all of the old hardwood floors underneath, bought nice leather furnishings and blended them with functional antiques, placed a beautiful antique persian rug in the living room, replaced all lighting with early 1900s look.
After the mini-renovation, the annual rental income tripled.
I am currently completing a $50,000 renovation on a cabin in Cosby that I purchased in October. I believe my rental income will increase by at least 50 percent when I am done.
- Member since 2023 · 40 posts · 17 votes3y
I'd recommend using multiple data points...a good way to gut-check AirDNA data (or any other data, for that matter) is data.rabbu. Plus it's free...and I love free!
- Member since 2022 · 272 posts · 253 votes3y
The data is legit, but it's using past data, and it includes cleaning fees. I prefer using awning.com which does NOT include cleaning fees.
Either way, if I was buying a property, I would want a robust under-writing process of:
1) on-line tools (airdna, awning, etc.)
2) Local realtor/PM data
3) enemy method
In this market, I might then layer on a trend, seeing as macro data would indicate that STR's hit a a peak Rev PAN in 2022. So I might apply a -5% to the above numbers
- Member since 2022 · 12 posts · 6 votes3y
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?
Luke and Avery Carl have written extensively about this, but here are my thoughts:
My goal is to find properties that are underperforming their peers by a significant amount. Properties in the Smokies are generally sold at a multiple of 9 to 11 times annual rents. I don't want to find the best performer in an area; I want to find the worst, buy it at a discount, and then get to work on making it perform at average or better for the peer group.
I do the following in my analysis of a subject property:
1. Check the VRBO rates and calendars for similar properties nearby.
2. Ascertain if the property has underperformed due to appearance: Is it out of date? Does it need a fresh coat of paint? New furnishings?
3. Is the property playing to its strengths or hiding from them?
3. Has the property underperformed due to lack of amenities?
Back in 2010, I purchased a cabin that was over 200 years old on the Roaring Fork River in Gatlinburg. It was a complete dump, with furnishings that looked like they came from the 1970s (and probably did). Nasty carpet, cheap fixtures, mini blinds.
When I bought it, I spent about $30,000 doing a mini-renovation. My goal was to play up to the fact that it was an old cabin rather than hiding it. Took out all of the carpet, restored all of the old hardwood floors underneath, bought nice leather furnishings and blended them with functional antiques, placed a beautiful antique persian rug in the living room, replaced all lighting with early 1900s look.
After the mini-renovation, the annual rental income tripled.
I am currently completing a $50,000 renovation on a cabin in Cosby that I purchased in October. I believe my rental income will increase by at least 50 percent when I am done.
This is awesome. Thanks for sharing. Last question; on your point #1 - when you check rates and calendars, how do you account for seasonality? Assuming since you are familiar with the area you inherently know that but how do you generally account for a (i.e.) $350/day rate in October that could also be a $150/day rate (+ low occupancy) in March?
- 3yJohn UnderwoodPro MemberInvestor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
That's a loaded question.
Airdna data is only so good.
It doesn't always pull in accurate comps and uses cleaning fees as income.
- Member since 2022 · 12 posts · 6 votes3y
Quote from @Brian Barch:
The data is legit, but it's using past data, and it includes cleaning fees. I prefer using awning.com which does NOT include cleaning fees.
Either way, if I was buying a property, I would want a robust under-writing process of:
1) on-line tools (airdna, awning, etc.)
2) Local realtor/PM data
3) enemy method
In this market, I might then layer on a trend, seeing as macro data would indicate that STR's hit a a peak Rev PAN in 2022. So I might apply a -5% to the above numbers
Thanks for this. Any data/links you can share on your point - macro data would indiciate that STR's hit a peak Rev PAN in 2022?
Also - what does PAN stand for?
- 3yWilliam LokarBusiness MemberRealtor · Northeast TN and Central VA · Member since 2021 · 51 posts · 38 votes
My experience on two STRs in very different markets (TN, AZ) are that I'm getting about 75% of the AirDNA estimate. My units are only two years and 6 months old respectively, so I'm giving it time. As a result I'm using 75% or the AirDNA estimate for revenue projections for future purchases.
- 3yCollin HaysBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is a bit like CarFax. It is a single data point. Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.
Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?
Luke and Avery Carl have written extensively about this, but here are my thoughts:
My goal is to find properties that are underperforming their peers by a significant amount. Properties in the Smokies are generally sold at a multiple of 9 to 11 times annual rents. I don't want to find the best performer in an area; I want to find the worst, buy it at a discount, and then get to work on making it perform at average or better for the peer group.
I do the following in my analysis of a subject property:
1. Check the VRBO rates and calendars for similar properties nearby.
2. Ascertain if the property has underperformed due to appearance: Is it out of date? Does it need a fresh coat of paint? New furnishings?
3. Is the property playing to its strengths or hiding from them?
3. Has the property underperformed due to lack of amenities?
Back in 2010, I purchased a cabin that was over 200 years old on the Roaring Fork River in Gatlinburg. It was a complete dump, with furnishings that looked like they came from the 1970s (and probably did). Nasty carpet, cheap fixtures, mini blinds.
When I bought it, I spent about $30,000 doing a mini-renovation. My goal was to play up to the fact that it was an old cabin rather than hiding it. Took out all of the carpet, restored all of the old hardwood floors underneath, bought nice leather furnishings and blended them with functional antiques, placed a beautiful antique persian rug in the living room, replaced all lighting with early 1900s look.
After the mini-renovation, the annual rental income tripled.
I am currently completing a $50,000 renovation on a cabin in Cosby that I purchased in October. I believe my rental income will increase by at least 50 percent when I am done.
This is awesome. Thanks for sharing. Last question; on your point #1 - when you check rates and calendars, how do you account for seasonality? Assuming since you are familiar with the area you inherently know that but how do you generally account for a (i.e.) $350/day rate in October that could also be a $150/day rate (+ low occupancy) in March?
You should be able to see the various rates for different months under the calendar tool in VRBO. It takes some time, but you can come up with some pretty solid data. I would trust it far more.
- Rental Property Investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes3y
@Joe Ciccarelli I’ve never heard of AirDNA. What is it?
- 3yMichael BaumPro MemberOlympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
@Collin Hays, I always loved that cabin story. Very cool.
@Bud Gaffney, AirDNA is an aggregator algorithm that scrubs AirBNB data like nightly rate, occupancy etc and spits out a number of what you can expect to earn with a STR of your own in the area. It isn't foolproof or 100% accurate. All it can do is take the data it can find and then it is done. The more data it can scour, the more accurate the reading. Simple as that.
Hey @Joe Ciccarelli, so you will never get 100% accurate data no matter what you do. If the area has a ton of rentals, then you will get more accurate data. If not, then it will be less accurate. For example my area doesn't have a ton of rentals (when I did it) so AirDNA came in about 300% more than what it should have been.
It had to add some outlier comps to make up for the lack of overall data. They had added a log mansion that rented for $2000 a night, that sort of thing. Seeing as our house is waterfront, it tried to give the closest comps. It doesn't always work right.
You best bet is to look yourself at listings that are similar to what you want to buy and see how they perform. Awning.com has an estimator that pulls the same data from AirBNB. It is free and I have been using it as a simple baseline.
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes3y
Anybody know how AirDna estimates how often a place is on the open market vs blocked? I've been watching some calendars of neighboring properties that seem open a few months and then get booked up as the time comes, but Airdna says they are only accepting bookings for 15-25% of the time?
- Real Estate Agent · The Short Term Shop / Florida Emerald and Forgotten Coasts · Member since 2022 · 217 posts · 126 votes3y
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
Joe, I would also use the enemy method (You can YouTube it under The Short Term Shop). To echo the others, it is an effective tool, but it is only one point and should be treated like that. AirDnA uses data from the big management companies like Vacasa/Soleil who like to put head in beds, so the numbers may be lower in certain markets than what you can actually self manage for. I hope that makes sense!
- Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes3y
I would rely on AirDNA to evaluate a market, but not a specific property. There are too many variables that algorithms can't calculate for.
The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews - Residential Real Estate Broker · Sedona, AZ · Member since 2017 · 751 posts · 504 votes3yHi Joe.
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.
I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property. Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!
AirDNA is legit. However, data is based on averages, which is why I never use it, and warn my clients that our numbers will be substantially better/higher, because we have a strong ROI system dialed in. AirDNA averages strongly weigh the 80% of STR owners that are breaking even or losing money every month. - Rental Property Investor · Worcester, MA · Member since 2018 · 131 posts · 135 votes3y
@Joe Ciccarelli all good replies hear which I would agree with. It is by no means an exact science. Use it more as a peak into different markets, but take specific property numbers with a grain of salt.
The accuracy of specific property numbers will depend on the market. Somewhere like the Smoky Mountains, where most rentals are for profit, will be more accurate than a place like a small ski mountain where many owners rent part time to help pay the mortgage and don't have profit motivation.
- Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2022 · 137 posts · 106 votes3y
Analyzing the income potential of a specific home is much more an art than a science. AirDNA is a great start but you have to dig into many other factors as well.
You'll notice some homes in the same neighborhood vary wildly in their income results. Why is that happening? What property characteristics correlate to higher income in this area? Can you duplicate those characteristics? How much of a difference does the host rating make? Are there 3rd party booking sites I'm not considering?
There's a lot that goes into forecasting income for STRs. AirDNA is a great start.
- Investor · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 754 votes3y
AirDNA is a good place to start, also try pricelabs, STR insights, the enemy method! Use more than 1 source
- Real Estate Agent · Emerald Coast, FL · Member since 2016 · 820 posts · 486 votes3y
Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:
Quote from @Brian Barch:
The data is legit, but it's using past data, and it includes cleaning fees. I prefer using awning.com which does NOT include cleaning fees.
Either way, if I was buying a property, I would want a robust under-writing process of:
1) on-line tools (airdna, awning, etc.)
2) Local realtor/PM data
3) enemy method
In this market, I might then layer on a trend, seeing as macro data would indicate that STR's hit a a peak Rev PAN in 2022. So I might apply a -5% to the above numbers
Thanks for this. Any data/links you can share on your point - macro data would indiciate that STR's hit a peak Rev PAN in 2022?
Also - what does PAN stand for?
RevPAN = Revenue Per Available Night
- Real Estate Agent · Emerald Coast, FL · Member since 2016 · 820 posts · 486 votes3y
I just researched several rental estimators and found the following:
Airbnb (yes, they have one - very limited)
All The Rooms (confusing to use)
Awning (good search by address/neighborhood map)
Rabbu (lots of detail)
Transparent (Pulls data from Airbnb, Booking.com, VRBO, and TripAdvisor)
Vacasa (can use it 1-2 times before they want your email and then you're in their marketing loop)I'm putting together a chart that compares these with pros and cons. Not finished yet but will share with BP when I get it done.
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