Is AirDNA data legit?

[Joe Ciccarelli]

New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.

I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property.  Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!

[Collin Hays]

Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:

Quote from @Collin Hays:

Quote from @Joe Ciccarelli:

New here. Feel free to point me to previous posts on this.

I'm using AirDNA Rentalizer and when I check the listed comps (i.e. actually clicking on the AirBNB link and checking price + future availability) it doesn't seem to line up with the ADR and Occupancy numbers AirDNA lists for that property.  Admittedly new at this but curious how others are 1) validating this data and 2) whether my process above seems correct. Thanks!

 AirDNA is a bit like CarFax.  It is a single data point.  Hopefully you don't buy a used vehicle based solely on what is listed on the CarFax report.

 Agreed. What other data points do you typically use in your analysis?

 Luke and Avery Carl have written extensively about this, but here are my thoughts:

My goal is to find properties that are underperforming their peers by a significant amount.  Properties in the Smokies are generally sold at a multiple of 9 to 11 times annual rents.  I don't want to find the best performer in an area; I want to find the worst, buy it at a discount, and then get to work on making it perform at average or better for the peer group.

I do the following in my analysis of a subject property:

1.  Check the VRBO rates and calendars for similar properties nearby.  

2.  Ascertain if the property has underperformed due to appearance:  Is it out of date?  Does it need a fresh coat of paint?  New furnishings?  

3.  Is the property playing to its strengths or hiding from them?  

3.  Has the property underperformed due to lack of amenities?  

Back in 2010, I purchased a cabin that was over 200 years old on the Roaring Fork River in Gatlinburg.  It was a complete dump, with furnishings that looked like they came from the 1970s (and probably did).  Nasty carpet, cheap fixtures, mini blinds.  

When I bought it, I spent about $30,000 doing a mini-renovation.  My goal was to play up to the fact that it was an old cabin rather than hiding it. Took out all of the carpet, restored all of the old hardwood floors underneath, bought nice leather furnishings and blended them with functional antiques, placed a beautiful antique persian rug in the living room, replaced all lighting with early 1900s look.  

After the mini-renovation, the annual rental income tripled.  

I am currently completing a $50,000 renovation on a cabin in Cosby that I purchased in October.  I believe my rental income will increase by at least 50 percent when I am done.