'08 RE Crash - What Was Going On In Your Life?

'08 RE Crash - What Was Going On In Your Life?

Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2017 · 36 posts · 19 votes

For those of you who don't want to know about me and instead want to get to the point of this post move on to "2". 

1.)

My name is Lukas Zupan - I'm a real estate investor in OKC, and I also own a RE photography business that specializes in 3D Tours. I have been in this game for 3 years now and I love studying real estate and learning, and since I started, I've overcome false beliefs and acquired new mindsets. (including realizing I should have and more importantly *could* have bought most if not all the houses I wholesaled while I learned) Still, I regret none of it and I carry on learning!
I was 8 years old
when my family moved from Vegas to Oklahoma City when our land-lord collected rent for a few months on our apartment complex at the time (2008) and skipped to Brazil. Or that apparently was the story, and I have since realized that also happened to many people. Much of my memory of that time makes more sense now, however...I was certainly not an 8-year-old real estate investor just chomping at the bit to get houses for pennies again. Now, over 10 years later I realize that all the markers are in place to betray another correction is imminent, and..."overdue". 

2.)

Boom. Personal blurb complete. The reason I am deeply interested in your personal story surrounding the market crash/correction of 2008 is that my perspective of market cycles is largely from second-hand experience. While I'm interested in your experience of market cyles in general, (you Veterans out there!) and I don't mind mentions of historic trends and crashes prior to '08, I would like to keep the specifics more related to our most recent cycle.

There is no right or wrong answer, just feel free to share whatever comes to mind about your story around that time. I look forward to chatting!

-Lukas Zupan

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Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Lukas Zupan:

Now, over 10 years later I realize that all the markers are in place to betray another correction is imminent, and..."overdue". 

There is no right or wrong answer, just feel free to share whatever comes to mind arund that time. 

While I have no real opinion on an 'imminent' correction, reliving the GRC makes me cringe overall.  

I had 36 rentals and just purchased my 3rd primary residence with 2 small kids.  Thankfully it had a mother in law apt to help weather the storm when my wife was laid off.  The state provided a 20hr/wk unemployment comp pkge to help us eat and I hadn't had a w2 since '02.  

About 1/3 of my tenants either bought a house with the $8k credit or consolidated and lived with family, friends. At first.  Then the foreclosure started hitting and my applicant quality rose significantly.  While A class overbuilds were offering 2 months free, my b class townhouses were filling fast and rents were rising.  My rural c class apts suffered with slow and no pays and vacancy.

Then the credit crunch.  My lines of credit and credit cards froze and or went to penalty pricing.  Couldn't finance any commercial assets period. Prices were attractive but cash was king.  Thankfully none of my commercial loans' 5yr call times hit from 09-11.  They would have called for sure as the regulatory environment in Washington was completely uncertain.  Banks just love uncertainty LOL.

I remember writing credit card checks to pay my property taxes.  I remember saying crap, that line froze, try another one. 

Now I have fat reserves, fat equity and don't mind purchasing with cash .I use private lenders vs commercial loans and you couldn't get me to blanket collateralize multiple properties if you paid me.  Helocs have fine print and gotchas.  401k loans are due right after you get paid off.  But keep on borrowing if you want to.

While most others are partnering, syndicating, refinancing to max leverage,  I'm ok to zag.  I will have a good chair when the music stops and won't miss a single nap.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    My story is requires a rewind to 2002 when I decided to pursue and engineering degree (at the time the job growth prospects and starter salary were top notch for a 4 year degree per bls.gov). With promises that I could write my own ticket upon graduation (and a naive 18 year old mind) I completed my degree in 2007. I bought a $45,000 truck upon graduation because my employer provided a $500/month car stipend so a payment of $778 was easily rationalized. Come December 2008 I’d be out of a job, facing a frozen construction market as lending dried up, competition from registered engineers for entry level jobs, and a nice truck payment to punch me in the face once each month.

    After couch surfing for 6 months in my hometown working as a busboy cleaning up other people’s left over refried beans, I’d land a job as a project engineer.....on an Island in Alaska. Seriously. It’s called Amaknak Island, look it up. Suffice it to say, I learned some nasty lessons the hard way. There is no such thing as a sure thing.

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    '07 - '09 were the first two (academic) years in medical school. I'm pretty sure I reeked of formalin after anatomy lab, wondering if I can every memorize the minutiae of neuroanatomy. 2nd year pathology and pharmacology were particularly rough. I don't think I knew what stocks and bonds were, it was my first time living away from home, and my net worth was around $0 or negative.

    I would go on to purchase my first and dream car (a mint '09 Honda S2000 6-spd convertible, with a red interior in March of 2011 - for $25,000. This cut my net worth in half at the time. Most would say not a very smart purchase for a min-20s student ;) It all worked out though.

  • Investor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    In '08 I graduated college and started teaching. It took me 2 years to save up the DP and find the right property but I bought my first duplex in 2010. Everything has trended up for me since then so I have not experienced any downturn in my investing career. Seems like I made some great buys along the way but pretty much anyone buying at reasonable prices could say the same thing.

  • Ian WalshBusiness Member
    Lender · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    I decided it was a good time to get into real estate.

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    Got into real estate in the mid 90's and was rehabbing Victorians in an Atlanta neighborhood called Grant park. Other investors thought I was nuts, since I bought those major rehabs, that everyone else bypassed. I didn't know what I didn't know. Loved it. Loved Victorians. I was only doing 1 house a year or so, but learned a ton. Wasn't interested in holding and being a landlord.

    In '06 I sold my last 2 houses and moved to the Westcoast. Through a course on overages, by Joe Kaiser, I took what I learned and zagged and became an 'heir hunter'. Made great money and when the market crashed, I bought properties in Atlanta, sight unseen. 

    This was in a low end neighborhood, that had been ground zero for mortgage fraud in the U.S. I knew that the low prices were about more than the foreclosure crisis. There were so many houses that had been involved in mortgage schemes and now about 80% of the inventory in this neighborhood was vacant. Banks just wanted to wipe their hands of them and were selling REOs for 10K. I still had 1 vacant lot in the area, that had 117' road frontage, 3' short of a triple-lot. I bought the duplex next door for 17k, figuring that it was 63' and I could easily take an extra 3' once the market recovered. Had my carpenter look at it and he said that it wouldn't take much to make it rentable - so, I did. Then I bought the house on the other side of the lot for 10K - made it a rental. Then a duplex on the backside of the lot for 10K - made it a rental. Then I bought others, just looking at pictures on MLS, picking usually houses, where I could tell that they had previously been involved in mortgage fraud. Didn't need so much to make them livable. People thought I was nuts.

    Came back to Atlanta end of 2010 and moved into the neighborhood. People thought I was nuts (can you tell that there's a theme here lol), because most investors wouldn't set foot in the neighborhood. I saw the potential, because it was 2 miles from Downtown Atlanta, close to 3 freeways. There was the Beltline, that was being planned/built (22 miles of trails, parks, railroad tracks around Downtown Atlanta) that ran right next to the neighborhood. To me it was a no-brainer. 

    In 2012 I had to leave Atlanta again, because my driver's license ran out and there were only 2 states I could get a new one: New Mexico or Washington. Moved to Seattle. After 6 months I was ready to crawl under a rock and die (weather) and moved to San Francisco. Got back into heir hunting. Moved to Los Angeles in 2014 - actually San Pedro, a little south. Had 2 duplexes on one block in Atlanta and another duplex there came on the market end of 2015. bought that, wrote to other owners (there was a total of 8 duplexes on that block) and was able to buy an additional one - now I had 4. 2 others came up and I didn't have funds and found another investor that bought the other 2. the 7th duplex was owned by someone I had been in touch with and thought we could rope him in. The 8th duplex was on the outside and we didn't need it. We planned an artist community. People thought I was nuts.

    Sounded like so much fun that I packed up and moved back to Atlanta, because I wanted to be in the middle of it. Thought it was only for a few months. Huh. That was feb '16 and I'm still here. The creative community has worked out well. I bought the other 2 from my partner. The Beltline trail on our end is ready. Big project across the street about to open in January. Neighborhood has exploded and rehabbed houses here are now in the upper 200's. Sold a few and have 13 left. Have 2 assemblages (all connected houses), that I'm planning to sell to developers in 3 years. Have had a number of people come up to me in the past year, telling me how they thought I was nuts for thinking that I could make an artist community out of this dangerous block and were impressed that I pulled it off. 

    To sum it all up, in general people think I'm nuts, but seems to work out well for me ;-)

  • Kristopher KyzarBusiness Member
    Rental Property Investor · Norfolk, VA · Member since 2017 · 260 posts · 174 votes
    6y

    I was in the Navy, stationed overseas with two rentals I'd purchased in 2004 and 2005 with very little money down.  Before the crisis, they were cash-flow positive (covered my mortgage plus some extra).  During the downturn, both units went unrented for consecutive 3 month periods.  That pretty much destroyed my savings account.  When I did get them rented again, it was for significantly less than I was renting them previously, so now what little cash-flow I had was gone.  Luckily, I had a Cost of Living Allowance due to the location I was stationed that covered the deficit.  I was one more vacancy period from losing both houses.  Luckily, the new tenants stayed...yay!  They're actually still the same tenants today.  I was able to slowly raise rents back to pre-crisis levels (still below market).  I've also been able to refinance both properties.  Now they cash-flow for real (accounting for ALL expenses).

    Key takeaways are: Never buy at market.  Hold on for dear life during a downturn.  Use the up-swing to build cash reserves.  During a downturn, buy (smartly).  Always keep learning.

  • Member since 2018 · 28 posts · 24 votes
    6y

    I was a junior in college on an ROTC scholarship. Most of my friends were extremely stressed out looking for internships that would provide stable income post graduation. I graduated in 2010, and many of my fellow graduates were unable to find jobs with a BA or BS. Many either worked min wage jobs, or went on the get a post graduate degree. Or couch surfed. I was lucky to commission in 2010 and didn't have to stress about a job hunt. I was fairly oblivious to the economy as a whole at the time. 

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    6y

    on a cruise in the Med watching BBC feeds in my cabin.. thinking OH sheet  .

    credit froze.. tenants stopped paying borrowers stop paying and out of the 450 or so loans I had out in force to BRRR

    investors over 250 of them failed and I ended up owning all those houses.. 

    Painful times 

    took 3 years to stabilize and we are pretty well back on track found some other real estate niches that have treated us well.

    But there is always some ups and downs.  Just the nature of the industry.

  • Rental Property Investor · Depends on where my employer sends me · Member since 2018 · 171 posts · 142 votes
    6y

    I was going through the USAF Combat Control pipeline and was had not idea about real estate.  in fact I was oblivious to everything except for getting through the next day of training.

  • Ryan LubyPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · CT · Member since 2016 · 258 posts · 227 votes
    6y

    I was a Sophomore in High School lol.. 

  • Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2017 · 36 posts · 19 votes
    6y

    @Alvin Uy I appreciate this look into your life. What you described seems like it would have been so stressful!! I'm glad you made it and are here on BP to tell the tale. It's also interesting how you describe the OOS stuff, and how your experience shaped your mindset toward them. (I'm from a state that gets a lot of OOS capital because of the stable rental market.) I think when I first was learning about REI spent about 10k haha. I feel that! Would you do anything different?

    @Lee Bell It's so cool that you saw the rising appreciation rates and knew something was off... Also, I've heard the "it will be different" thought around the next correction for sure... Idk, maybe has to do with so much consumer debt. :P Thank you Lee for sharing, is there anything you regret?

    @Mike Dymski you hit it right on the money! I think the panic and stress and fear in the news etc may have had more of an impact on OKC's economy than the collapsing "rubble" around the country. Almost like a weird, localized correction. (and unnecessary) When it happens again I'll be ready! How did you decide what market conditions you would expand your portfolio under?

    @John Teachout I'm so excited for your financial freedom journey man! So cool to hear that you did those things and became $$ stable. (btw I don't know how hogs are in Michigan, but here every Oklahoma county is considered "infested" so we get free reign all year to go hog-huntin'!) You made such a great choice to go full-time into real estate. I'm sure you'll find that that means dedicating a relatively "short" time to ensure your time is never attached to hourly work if you don't want it to be. I don't even know you, but I'm proud of you haha! :D Do you regret anything?

    @Brian Ploszay Brother this is exactly why I am making sure I am fully aware NOW because all the same markers and indicators that kinda foreshadowed the last "crash" are their again. They have been for a long time and are even more severe!

    I just want to encourage you Brian because you can equip yourself with millions in private money, ready to deploy next time the dust is in the air and come out as one of those people that has seemingly "unlimited" money.

    I love how you touched on the subprimes... "Bad mortgages were being written, because there was high demand to buy falsely rated securities." That is Exactly Right! I'm just glad I finally (and recently, phew) understand that. I'm glad you do too. :D Is there anything specifically that you regret or would do over?

    @Nick Gann Happy to hear things have changed for you and it seems you are much more educated about the economic workings at play. I love watching entrepreneurs and investors take responsibility by being responsible! So cool. 

    Do you feel like you want to be more heavily involved in real estate now that you know what you do?


    @Account Closed Daaaaaang, you certainly had a bumpy road during that time. And is it awful I have heard of your Amaknak island xD. (my father lived in Alaska for a few years)

    It's interesting how your journey more or less started with you being misinformed from the start...about college etc. (me too) It gave you a false pretense on which to build your life, not really fair but it sounds like you made it and are hear now on BP to tell me about it haha. What landed you in the REI circles?

    @Andrey Y. Haha I love the raw honesty of the what your life was like at the time. Most people would want to maybe omit certain things, or phrase things in a euphemistic way but nope! You're just like "Here was my life at the time, I barely knew about bonds and was in med school buying a fancy car!" My story is pretty similar hehe, I was in something like 2nd grade and had waaaay more "ignorance" of the global market collapsing around me. What have you learned since then?

    @Max T. You got it exactly right when you said "buying at a reasonable price". That is why they say you make money when you buy. It's at that point where you have the greatest control... If you can keep yourself somewhat protected for the next go-around you will have the opportunity to buy when everyone else runs! You got this! Are you ready for your first downturn?

    @Ian Walsh What made you decide it was a good time to invest? Most people were running.


    @Michaela G. I abosolutely love that you just sound like a super cool person for being bold and brave amidst the crazy, and "zagging". ;) I think people grossly underestimate the power of going the opposite direction of the crowd. Which clearly you've done and of course people are gonna thing you're nuts haha!

    I definitely don't think you are nuts for moving away from the "bleh" Seattle weather. XD That didn't seem to take long. I was just in your current state a little while ago! (in Atlanta)

    I really appreciate you taking the time to go into such detail about your life story since '08. :D Anything you'd go back and do over?


    @Kristopher Kyzar I don't have much to reply other than it makes me happy to see how smart you are about realizing your key takeaways. Some people would freak out and some could even leave the game permanently because of the troubles they had. You weathered them instead and are here now. You are in the perfect position to capitalize on buying properties or being a private lender. Do you want to buy more property in the future?

    @Luke Sanderson I'm sensing a theme of people just being right in the middle of the chaos, noticing people struggle and lose their jobs and houses etc right in front of them. But most don't know what happened at the time as wall street took a fall and pawned the consequences off to US taxpayers.

    What got you into real estate and here on the BP community?

    @Jay Hinrichs Thank you for taking the time to share some of your wisdom. From what I'm learning I would certainly agree that the ups and downs certainly seem perfectly natural. I think being aware, like you are now is the problem. (lack of awareness that is) That sounds like an especially brutal time for you. Glad you didn't just quit! Is there anything you'd go back and change?

    I appreciate you all for deciding to spend some of your valuable time on sharing your 08 experiences with me! Y'all are strong people!

  • Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2017 · 36 posts · 19 votes
    6y

    @Wesley Whitehead FACTS! How did you end up an investor on BP??

    @Ryan Luby 2nd grade bro... points at myself. I was COMPLETELY oblivious haha... I knew we were moving for some reason but other than that... I was just a happily ignorant kid. What brought you here?

  • Rental Property Investor · East Longmeadow, MA · Member since 2019 · 154 posts · 64 votes
    6y

    I was in the midst of graduating from Bryant U with a degree in accounting.  I was learning about stocks and putting a few bucks away.  I learned a lot from other investors and my father who got taken to the woodshed too.

  • Real Estate Agent · Murfreesboro, TN · Member since 2019 · 194 posts · 181 votes
    6y

    More heavily involved, yes. Working on my license and going to look at what may become my 3rd rental property... today. Im all in. The goal being to help my wife replace herself in her own business, hire most aspects of my business out, and increase ownership in real estate to as much as possible. Interested, after all that is done, in creating spaces that the community doesnt yet have, even if all they do is break even. Too many chains of crap food, mediocre service and so on around. Seems to me it's possible to create cool, fun, cultural areas and support local business while doing it.

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan , no, nothing I would change, of the top of my head. Sure, I wished I had bought even more properties, but I didn't have the funds, so, I couldn't have. I'm good. Everything's a lesson in some way. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 33 posts · 78 votes
    6y

    I was in my 20s and definitely not yet in the RE investing mindset. Unfortunately, my father and my brother were in that mindset. They were buying houses that were losing money every month, hoping that they could keep them afloat with cash from their hard labor(masonry and concrete).

    One of these houses they asked me to buy from them- just on paper so they could free up some credit. With a gift of equity as down payment, I filled out the paperwork and took official ownership of the house.

    Not long after, both my brother and father died and I was left holding that house. It was upside down by 100k, the tenant decided to stop paying rent and I got a crash course in short sales.

    Luckily I was able to dump the house for just a little bit out of pocket and I had to pay the IRS income tax on the forgiven debt. I think that was about 7k in taxes.

    My credit took a hard hit and I learned some painful lessons that caused me to be very hesitant to get into RE investing.

    Luckily I was able to overcome the fear and jump back in.

  • Rental Property Investor · Erie, PA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    2008 lol. I was busy meeting chicks from Myspace and Hotornot and going out and drinking 3-5 nights a week with my friends. 

    I had a small wholesaling company with a business partner where we wholesaled sports cards (no joke - we bought them by the thousand/million and sold the junk cards to a wholesaler who repackaged them and sold the product in stores like Target and Wal-Mart). 

    I also bought and sold stocks - did well on some and not well on others. 

    2008... so long ago. I remember the day before Lehman Brothers went down I sold my brother's car to this guy (got a $100 down payment and he said he'd be back in a week with the rest of the money). A few days later he called and canceled on me, wanting his $100 back. 

  • Ryan LubyPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · CT · Member since 2016 · 258 posts · 227 votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan

    Since you asked, Long story long...

    I got obsessed with podcasts as soon as I found them, found the BP podcast, had no idea it was a website for a few episodes, then found the site, created a free profile and started devouring information. ** I did everything I could to not not ask questions yet because it was clear how annoying that was, and how disrespectful it is of everyone's time when the site itself was already loaded with answers to any general question I would have. Once you gain even just a little experience you can begin asking questions pertaining to your specific circumstances and people are eager to help.

    Next phase,

    I found a post on BP for a local investor looking for part-time help. Did everything I could to consistently solve the investors problems, got my agent license, got my contractors license, that investor hired me to a full-time position, worked myself into an operations manager role (he hated managing people, I love managing people, systems, processes etc..), managing the companies employees, and project managing the deals from acquisition until the rehab was complete then I passed off to my boss to list and market. I did that specific role for a few months and then negotiated a great raise once I felt I was consistently adding great value. Then.. probably because of that raise lol..

    Next phase,

    Eventually after a couple years working with the investor he laid everyone off, I took the opportunity to work for myself as an agent, contractor, and really push my personal investing. Completed a live-in flip with our primary residence, used the profit to pay for our wedding and buy the next live-in investment, we are currently in that house, I fix it up as often as I can when I'm not working, goal is to use HELOC on this house to buy another, Completed a BRRRR with a partner, have another whole-tail listed for sale with a partner, and constantly working to push myself to the next phase of scaling my BRRRR investing.

    Final rant... Anytime I think about how I'm here, it reminds me I can't thank @BiggerPockets .com enough for their site, and specifically @Joshua D., @Brandon Turner, @Scott Trench, @Mindy Jensen for everything they have created along with the entire BP team that works behind the scenes. Literally everything I have done thus far in real estate is a result of me finding and utilizing Bigger Pockets effectively. I'm far from a multi-millionaire RE investor but I am consistently working on living a life on my terms and I'm much closer to that outcome thanks to BP and it's community. So I'm regularly working to add value to this site and community in whatever small way I can, and I hope this site continues to grow for a very long time.

  • Kristopher KyzarBusiness Member
    Rental Property Investor · Norfolk, VA · Member since 2017 · 260 posts · 174 votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan I have 3 joint ventures in progress now.  I did put off further investing for way too long.  Partly due to the headaches I encountered, and partly due to my military career.  This year I decided to stop making excuses and take action.

  • Rental Property Investor · Depends on where my employer sends me · Member since 2018 · 171 posts · 142 votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan I learned about BP last year from a buddy while working overseas.  Started listening to the podcasts and read some books and decided to take action and learn as I went.  One of the greatest decision of my life and equally as challenging/rewarding as becoming a Combat Controller.

  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    6y

    @Mike Dymski you hit it right on the money! I think the panic and stress and fear in the news etc may have had more of an impact on OKC's economy than the collapsing "rubble" around the country. Almost like a weird, localized correction. (and unnecessary) When it happens again I'll be ready! How did you decide what market conditions you would expand your portfolio under?

    I don't let conditions determine my future...my decisions determine my future.

    I don't have a crystal ball; so, I invest throughout the cycle.  I just pivot my strategy to what the market bears.  Currently, I have been more focused on cash flow than value plays (and always adding value).

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles · Member since 2019 · 284 posts · 184 votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan

    Regarding my thoughts on OOS investing.... Nothing wrong with it. Its just not for me and does not play into my ling term plans at the moment.

    The short answer to your question about what I would do differently is that I would do exactly what Im doing now. Im investing in my own backyard where I have more control over the entire process. Ive built a team locally. Im buying distressed and rehabbing (also now building ground-ups) and have been property managing all my investments with my wife. Full control in the market i know intimately... in very targeted areas of Los Angeles.

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    6y

    @Lukas Zupan I started real estate investing in 2004. By 2006, it was getting hard to find good tenants and rents were compressing. People forget that we had record home ownership in 2006 - not great for landlords! In 2006 there were mortgage companies everywhere. I worked with a company started by a guy who was selling used cars in 2005 and by 2006 he had the largest mortgage company in my city! If you were breathing, you could get a mortgage. Not only were people getting 100% loans, but in some cases they even walked away with cash at closing! By the time 2007-2008 came, the real estate market had been softening due to increasing supply. The stock market crashed in 2008, mostly due to the house of cards built on reckless lending. The housing market kept getting worse in 2009 and 2010 as foreclosures saturated the market with properties. Really it was pure hell until 2012 in most markets. 

    Unemployment reached insane levels. Many were unemployed so long that they just stopped looked for jobs. So the unemployment was decreasing partially because people gave up on looking for jobs (anyone 55+ in particular). 

    Just to summarize the chain of events, There was reckless lending, housing over supply, stock market crash, layoffs, record high unemployment, high foreclosure rate and this went on for years. 

    You say:

    "Now, over 10 years later I realize that all the markers are in place to betray another correction is imminent, and..."overdue"."

    What markers are in place? 

    This does not feel like 2006 or 2007 or 2008. We have record low unemployment, low housing supply, tight lending standards and stock market keeps setting new records. More importantly, recessions don't operate on a time table. It is like saying the New York Yankees will win the World Series this year, because it happens about every ten years. Although I am confident the Yankees will win again, I also understand that it is the management, underlying team and competitive field that determines their success - not calendar year.

    Of course real estate has cycles, but when you look historically no two recessions are the same. There is always different catalyst, different severity and different duration. 

    One thing people forget is the depths of the last recession were so low, that we didn't recover (back to even) until around 2015 or 2016. People forget that even as recent as 2016 we had lower home ownership rates than the previous 50 years! My point is this isn't a 10 year run of prosperity. It is more like a four year up swing. 

    I am not making a prediction, but I know when things start going bad, there are signs everywhere. I just don't see those signs right now.

    Here is a home ownership chart that reinforces my previous points:

  • Developer · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Lukas Zupan:

    For those of you who don't want to know about me and instead want to get to the point of this post move on to "2". 

    1.)

    My name is Lukas Zupan - I'm a real estate investor in OKC, and I also own a RE photography business that specializes in 3D Tours. I have been in this game for 3 years now and I love studying real estate and learning, and since I started, I've overcome false beliefs and acquired new mindsets. (including realizing I should have and more importantly *could* have bought most if not all the houses I wholesaled while I learned) Still, I regret none of it and I carry on learning!
    I was 8 years old
    when my family moved from Vegas to Oklahoma City when our land-lord collected rent for a few months on our apartment complex at the time (2008) and skipped to Brazil. Or that apparently was the story, and I have since realized that also happened to many people. Much of my memory of that time makes more sense now, however...I was certainly not an 8-year-old real estate investor just chomping at the bit to get houses for pennies again. Now, over 10 years later I realize that all the markers are in place to betray another correction is imminent, and..."overdue". 

    2.)

    Boom. Personal blurb complete. The reason I am deeply interested in your personal story surrounding the market crash/correction of 2008 is that my perspective of market cycles is largely from second-hand experience. While I'm interested in your experience of market cyles in general, (you Veterans out there!) and I don't mind mentions of historic trends and crashes prior to '08, I would like to keep the specifics more related to our most recent cycle.

    There is no right or wrong answer, just feel free to share whatever comes to mind about your story around that time. I look forward to chatting!

    -Lukas Zupan

     Lukas,

    Is a recession imminent? Maybe. Will it be as hard as 2008? Maybe not.

    What was I doing during the Great Recession?

    It was one of the best times of my investing career.

    I was buying when everyone were selling.

    Cincinnati as always was late to the party. We really didn't feel much of the effect until '09 but even then, the CIncy market went down by 10% (not 50% like a lot of places). The market didn't really recover until 2014 which gave me a lot of byuying opportunities. For example, in 2013, my partner and I bought 28% of all apartments for sale in Cncy during that time.

    Someone asked me if I am worried that another Recession is on the horizon. My answer was the same today than it was in 2007 (or just prior to the Crash of '08):

    I am not worried at all because I bought my properties RIGHT.

  • Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2017 · 36 posts · 19 votes
    6y

    @Luke Saglimbeni Thank you so much for sharing with me. I'm here to learn about my fellow investor community too :) Has your accounting degree been valuable to you?

    @Nick Gann That is such a cool vision!!! (and it sounds like you are well on your way) I'm sure you get a ton of book recommendations but for you and your wife it almost sounds like "The E-Myth" is one that could change your life. You can download it for free (and something like 100M other books) from pdfdrive.com 

    Just keep buying assets!

    @Michaela G. Sounds like you need private money! Unlimited funds right there - just gotta start now. No more regrets for the next down market because Michaela is gobbling up all da property! :P

    @Tony Antonelli Your hesitation to get into RE is completely understandable. After what you went through? It must have been so conflicting your family passing and at the same time that meant you were stuck with this problem property you didn't necessarily want... I'd be hesitant to! Wow. Kudos for getting through that and to the other side. You got nipped in the *** pretty good, but I hope you are now learning the ways RE can unlock your freedom. Are you enjoying being an investor?

    @Karl B. Wow CRAZY times for sure! What got you into real estate from selling thousands of cards??

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