Is seeking a "high appreciation" market a good strategy?

[Greg Scott]

I regularly hear people on BP discuss cashflow vs appreciation and which markets deliver on those.  There have seen heated debates in this forum, particularly when the "must have cashflow" people are arguing with those willing to accept negative cashflow in expensive markets.

But how does one identify which markets are "high appreciation" markets?  

In the last 5 years, which do you think had a higher percentage of appreciation?
- Cleveland Ohio or San Diego California?
- Portland Oregon or Memphis Tennessee
- Miami Florida or Indianapolis Indiana?
 - Honolulu Hawaii or El Paso Texas?

Conventional wisdom is that the more expensive markets have higher appreciation opportunity.   If this was your strategy, you were wrong.  In the last 5 years Cleveland beat San Diego, Memphis beat Portland, Indy edged out Miami, and while neither Honolulu or El Paso did well, El Paso did better.  You can see the data for yourself in this Bloomberg article https://www.bloomberg.com/grap...

Look at this graphic in particular.

Now, I'm sure some people will want to focus on the amount of dollar appreciation.  If that is your focus, I must ask you.  Are you better off having 73% appreciation on a $1M home in San Jose California, or 130% appreciation on 10 $100K homes in Dayton Ohio.  The math has the answer.

Just my 2 cents

[Jon Martin]

Quote from @Luka Milicevic:

My bigger question is how do you find what would be a high appreciation market

Look to where people are moving, whether those are retirees or high paid remote workers. Especially those cashing out of traditionally high appreciation markets (NYC, CA). Look for cities that could be the next Nashville or Austin where the median price is on the lower side. Those places have far more upside to grow in comparison to the already expensive markets that are already close to maxed out. That's what led me to Greenville SC. 

Disclaimer: Amateur investor opinion here.