What data are you most looking forward too?

Question

What data are you most looking forward too from now until the end of the year and why?

Benjamin Aaker · Answer

I cast my vote for unemployment. If it spikes, the effect on RE won't be immediate, but all those people who got a great rate, so they bought a way-too-big house and are affording it only because of their current income will need to sell quickly. If they stop paying the mortgage, it'll take some time for the foreclosures to go through, unless they put their house on the market sooner. I suspect at that time we will see increased inventory.

Carlos Ptriawan · Answer

zillow home index especially on Q3-Q4.I don't care so much about jobless index because first that number is too vague, second , there's no strong correlation to real estate anymore and third, it doesn't display the distribution of the money.I mean if tomorrow we have 8% unemployment, I hardly see the effect in real estate. Why ? because the number of money floating in the bank is still the same. If tomorrow we have 700% more unemployment but the Fed would acquire more securities and printing more money, RE price is going up even further.

Abel Curiel · Answer

I think it will. Whether or not it will be a statistically significant increase is another story.

Bobby Paquette · Answer

Love it!  You think it will increase inventory?

Chris Seveney · Answer

Jobless claims. We invest in distressed debt and jobs is the #1 factor on people's ability to pay their mortgage.

Abel Curiel · Answer

Jobless claims.

Reason being, not sure how reliable the unemployment data is. I am mainly curious to see if/how joblessness/unemployment will impact RE inventory.

Looking forward to the other input on the thread.

Great question, @Bobby Paquette!