Pending Home Sales Pick Up

[Derek Brickley]

Week of November 24, 2025

This was one of those weeks where the housing market quietly dropped a few important signals and by staying plugged-in we can use it to win buyers before the crowd catches on!

🏡 Home Prices Still Up Year-Over-Year, but Pace Slows

September finally gave the market a breather. Case-Shiller showed prices up 1.3% year-over-year, with a tiny month-over-month dip before seasonal adjustments. FHFA showed a bit more strength at 1.7% annual growth.

Nothing dramatic, just a market catching its breath.

Bottom line: This is the “Goldilocks zone” for price conversations. Homes aren’t falling, but the slowdown makes buyers feel less rushed. If rates drop again, this window closes fast.

📝 Pending Home Sales Rise in October

Here’s the headline move: pending sales jumped 1.9%, hitting their best pace of the entire year.

That's not noise, that’s buyers stepping into the game.

Bottom line for agents: This data leads closings. Your December/January pipeline is being built right now. If you have buyers who disappeared when rates were ugly? This is your moment to revive them.

💼 Continuing Claims Say One Thing: Hiring Is Slowing

Initial claims dipped (good news)... but continuing claims climbed to 1.96 million (not great).

Translation: layoffs are low, but re-hiring is slow.

Bottom line: The Fed watches this closely. Slower hiring = more pressure to cut rates. And lower rates = more buyers back in your hands.

🛒 Retail Sales Point to a Cooling Consumer

September retail spending grew just 0.2%, and the control group (the GDP-accurate one) slipped negative. The key is consumers are hitting the brakes.

Bottom line for agents: Softening consumer data gives the Fed more room to cut and the housing market reacts fast to even small rate dips. If rates pull back again, showings will jump.

⛽ Wholesale Inflation: A Gas-Price Story, Not a Trend

Producer prices rose 0.3% thanks mostly to a surge in gasoline. Core producer inflation barely moved.

Bottom line for agents: This is the report that feeds into PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). And it’s not hot enough to scare them away from future cuts.

🍪 Family Hack of the Week

National Cookie Day is December 4! Get your sugar cookie on!

📅 What to Look for This Week

• ADP November Jobs Report (Wed) — market-moving
• Jobless Claims (Thu) — hiring trend check
• September PCE Inflation (Fri) — the one the Fed actually uses

This is the most important pre-Fed week we’ve had in a while.

📈 Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds are stuck between 101.17 support and 101.44 resistance. The 10-year Treasury is still flirting with the 4% floor — and a clean drop below would be rate-friendly.