Quote from @Lucy Quick:
I am a newbie real estate investor looking to start to build my portfolio this year. I live in LA where there is no hope of cash flow so am looking out of state. I have around 100k to deploy to buy the first 2 properties and want to buy a 3rd next year when Ive re saved. I want to stick to one market only so I don't have to build two teams. I am working with a great real estate coach who has deep relationships and experience in Memphis and Birmingham but neither market appeals to me as I am drawn to more balanced markets that may offer more long term appreciation but lower initial cash flow, especially considering climate migration. I was super interested in Grand Rapids MI but would be looking at SFH between 200 and 240k and could only find very old homes, I was also struggling to find good property managers. Indianapolis felt great but the higher tax for investors ate any cash flow, Omaha I was also interested in but couldn't find cash flow with a higher Capex due to older home stock. Im basically in decision paralysis and wanted to reach out to the community and see if anyone has any reccos. Strong and diverse job market and not somewhere with super high climate risks like southern Florida or CA. Im ok with very minimal cash flow for the first few years, but would definitely need the property to pay for itself / break even. Thank you in advance!
A lot of good advice here so far, but also a few missing issues.
1) Real Estate Coach
Don't know them, don't care, but very FEW coaches "walk the talk"!
- What have they covered about the Classes of Cities/Neighborhoods/Properties/Tenants and how they all affect each other?
- Specifically HOW are they evaluating different markets to invest? Analytics you can Google to verify or emotional-based, "trust me" statements?
2) "Very Old Homes"
I was in Marblehead, MA last summer (cool place!) and of course looked at some real estate. Lots of 200+ year old houses selling for $1M+.
- As long as a property is properly updated, why would you care how old it is?
- Some of the best deals in most markets are the ones needing some updating.
--- Doing your own BRRR is usually better than buying Turnkey. WIth a BRRR you KNOW what was rehabbed and the quality of the work. With a Turnkey, you're "hoping" everything was done and done well.
3) "Balanced Markets"
Guessing you mean markets with growing populations for possible appreciation?
- For decades California & Florida led the county in population growth, but that's no longer true. So, what RELIABLE method of forecasting do you have that the rest of us are missing?
4) What are the actual risks of OOS investing?
You’re ALWAYS better off investing locally, where it’s easier to:
- Learn the market
- Network to find deals
- Network to find contractors
- Be more hands-on
- Driveby property to keep tabs on it
- Network to find a decent Property Management Company (PMC)
Next best location is somewhere else you lived, where you have an existing network of family & friends to help you as accomplish the above list as needed.
If you invest OOS, your biggest challenge won't be finding properties to meet your goals on paper, it’ll be successfully building a knowledgeable & trustworthy local team.
The biggest mistake we see OOS investors making in our market, over and over again, is not fully understanding Neighborhood/Property/Tenant Classes and how they impact your probability of success!
They all run their ROI numbers assuming Class A results – when buying Class B, C & even D rentals.
Then they’re shocked when their performance expectations aren't met😞
If you choose to invest OOS, and have little to no landlord experience, we highly recommend targeting Class B Neighborhoods/Properties/Tenants. If you target Class C, you better be prepared emotionally & financially for plenty of challenges.
You can find Class B properties in the Midwest to BRRRR, but it will take more digging and YOU will need to understand how to analyze & identify them - because a lot of agents, wholesalers, PMCs, etc. will try to sell you Class C or D misrepresented as Class B:
- Many of them don't know/care what Class the properties are, so they're incompetent.
- Others know exactly what they are doing, so should be labeled as crooks!
EITHER WAY YOU LOSE!
Why is Property Class so important for investors to understand and apply in their investing strategies?
Because the Property Class dictates the Class of the tenant pool that the property will attract.
The Tenant Class greatly impacts rental income stability and property maintenance/damage by tenants.
Both Property Class and Tenant Class will affect what type of contractors, handymen and property management companies you should target and be willing to deal with a property.
The Property Class will also impact the maintenance & renovations you do to, “Maintain to the Neighborhood”.
Why is that important?
Well, if you buy & renovate a property in Class D area to Class A standards, what Tenant Class will actually rent it?
Or, if you put several Class D tenants in a Class A four-plex, what do you think will happen to the property?
So, if you fail to apply the correct assumptions to a property, your expectations won’t be met, and it may even be a financial disaster.
We use the following to rank Property Classes, in order of importance:
- Property Tenant Pool: closely linked to location, but not always.
- Property Location: closely linked to tenant pool, but not always.
- Property Condition & Amenities: it’s important to, “Maintain to the Neighborhood.”
Key metrics for each Property Class:
Class A Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 680+, no convictions/evictions in last 7 years.
Tenant Default: 0-5% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class A rents are too high and won’t be approved.
Vacancies: 5-10%, depending on market conditions.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 3-5 years for positive cashflow, but you get highest relative rent & value appreciation.
Class B Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 620-680, some blemishes, no convictions/evictions in last 5 years.
Tenant Default: 5-10% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Vacancies: 10-15%, depending on market conditions.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, 1-3 years for positive cashflow, balanced amounts of relative rent & value appreciation.
Section 8: Class B rents are usually too high for the Section 8 program.
Class C Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores 560-620, many blemishes, but should have no convictions/evictions in last 3 years. Verifying recent 2-years of rental history very important! Same for 2-years of job/income stability.
Tenant Default: 10-20% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class C rents usually meet program requirements, proper screening still recommended.
Vacancies: 10-20%, depending on market conditions and tenant screening.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Should cashflow immediately, at the lower end of relative rent & value appreciation.
Class D Properties:
Tenant Pool: Majority of FICO scores under 560, little to no good tradelines, lots of collections & chargeoffs, but should have no convictions/evictions in last 12 months. Verifying last 2-years of rental history and income/employment extremely important to find the “best of the worst”.
Tenant Default: 20-30% probability of eviction or early lease termination.
Section 8: Class D rents meet program requirements, often challenges to pass Section 8 inspection.
Vacancies: 20%+, depending on market conditions and tenant screening.
Cashflow vs Appreciation: Typically, all cashflow with little, maybe even negative, relative rent & value appreciation.
Where did we get our FICO credit score information from?
Check out this chart:
|
FICO Score
|
Pct of Population
|
Default Probability
|
|
800 or more
|
13.00%
|
1.00%
|
|
750-799
|
27.00%
|
1.00%
|
|
700-749
|
18.00%
|
4.40%
|
|
650-699
|
15.00%
|
8.90%
|
|
600-649
|
12.00%
|
15.80%
|
|
550-599
|
8.00%
|
22.50%
|
|
500-549
|
5.00%
|
28.40%
|
|
Less than 499
|
2.00%
|
41.00%
|
Source: Fair Isaac Company
Make sure you understand the Class of properties you are looking at and the corresponding results to expect.
For example, Metro Detroit has 132 cities and the City of Detroit 183 Neighborhoods, which we’re analyzing and classifying to make better investing decisions.
Horror Stories from those that did NOT Understand What they were Buying:
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/48/topics/1137397-baltimore-a-path-to-never-ending-pain
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/432/topics/1231840-sell-at-a-loss-or-rent-at-a-loss
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/311/topics/840134-memphis-turnkey-tenant-turnover-costs
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/963/topics/1195280-experience-of-oos-investing-in-cleveland-after-15-years
