Am I bringing unrealistic expectations to this market? Nothing pencils out....

Am I bringing unrealistic expectations to this market? Nothing pencils out....

Lee W.Pro Member
Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 7 votes

Hey BP, long-time listener, first time caller here.  I'm at the very beginning of my real estate journey and I believe I'm in need of a reality-check from people further down the road than me.

I'm looking at long-term buy-and-hold rentals in northwestern Montana, and I'm fortunate enough to be about an hour's drive from a college town (to my south) and a tourist-driven town (to my north).  Over the last couple months I've run BiggerPockets calculator-analyses on three or four dozen small multi-family properties at list price, and then re-run them with progressively more aggressive offers - 5%, 10%, sometimes 20% below asking price.  Almost none of them cash-flow on day one.  

I want to make sure I'm not the problem before I conclude the market is. Here's one representative deal so you can see exactly what I'm working with:

Property: ~$860k duplex in town

- Rent: $4,700/mo (existing tenants)

- 25% down, 7.10% on a 30-year conventional

- Insurance: $300/mo

- Taxes: $360/mo

- Vacancy: 8% of rent

- Maintenance: 10% of rent

- CapEx: 10% of rent

- No HOA, utilities tenant-paid

At list price, monthly cash flow is -$1115, cash-on-cash -7%, DCR 0.65.

If I get the seller to take 10% off ($775k, my "reach" offer): cash flow goes to -$687/mo, CoC -5.6%, DCR 0.72.

If I want to get into 'disrespectful offer' territory and hail-mary a $635k offer, THEN I get: cash flow to -$18.50/mo, CoC -2.46%, DCR 0.88.

That's the ONLY scenario in my whole pipeline where the deal cash-flows on day one, and it requires the seller to cut $225k off their asking price.

Every other property I've modeled tells the same story: Rents in this market are roughly $3,000–$5,000 on multifamilies priced $650k–$900k. The 1% rule is a fantasy here.  Most properties land at 0.6–0.8% rent-to-price.

My questions for the community:

1. Are my assumptions off?  The 8/10/10 vacancy/maintenance/capex savings feels standard but my realtor tells me many investors run leaner.  Am I being too conservative?  Is there a number I'm padding that shouldn't be?

2. Are my expectations off?  Is "day-one positive cash flow at 25% down" just not a realistic ask in 2026 in a desirable mountain/college/tourist market?  If so, what ARE reasonable expectations here - Break-even with appreciation upside?  Slight negative with the plan to refinance later?  I'm so new that I don't know what "good" looks like in a market, so I'm relying on assumptions baked into spreadsheets.  

3. Am I looking at the wrong deals? Should I be hunting MTR/STR conversions, house-hacks, BRRRR candidates, seller-financed deals, something other than vanilla buy-and-hold? Is there a structure I'm not considering that makes these properties work?

4. Is the market just wrong for me right now?  Totally open to hearing "kid, this isn't a cash-flow market, it's an appreciation market; go look at the Midwest if you want cash flow."  I'd much rather hear that now than after I'm locked into a bad deal.

I'm not married to any of this.  I'd much rather get chastised on a forum than learn the lesson by writing a check every month for ten years. Beat me up, recalibrate me, point me at resources I should be reading.  I'll take whatever you've got and will cheerfully adjust my headspace and timing.  

Thanks in advance.

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Most Popular Reply

Nicholas L.Pro Member
Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
4mo

@Lee W.

have you been too conservative?  no.  listen to a few of the recent BP podcasts.  @Dave Meyer recommends underwriting deals with 0 appreciation.

See this reply in the discussion

25 Replies

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  • Drew SygitBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 13k+ posts · 9k+ votes
    4mo
    Quote from @Lee W.:

    Hey BP, long-time listener, first time caller here.  I'm at the very beginning of my real estate journey and I believe I'm in need of a reality-check from people further down the road than me.

    I'm looking at long-term buy-and-hold rentals in northwestern Montana, and I'm fortunate enough to be about an hour's drive from a college town (to my south) and a tourist-driven town (to my north).  Over the last couple months I've run BiggerPockets calculator-analyses on three or four dozen small multi-family properties at list price, and then re-run them with progressively more aggressive offers - 5%, 10%, sometimes 20% below asking price.  Almost none of them cash-flow on day one.  

    I want to make sure I'm not the problem before I conclude the market is. Here's one representative deal so you can see exactly what I'm working with:

    Property: ~$860k duplex in town

    - Rent: $4,700/mo (existing tenants)

    - 25% down, 7.10% on a 30-year conventional

    - Insurance: $300/mo

    - Taxes: $360/mo

    - Vacancy: 8% of rent

    - Maintenance: 10% of rent

    - CapEx: 10% of rent

    - No HOA, utilities tenant-paid

    At list price, monthly cash flow is -$1115, cash-on-cash -7%, DCR 0.65.

    If I get the seller to take 10% off ($775k, my "reach" offer): cash flow goes to -$687/mo, CoC -5.6%, DCR 0.72.

    If I want to get into 'disrespectful offer' territory and hail-mary a $635k offer, THEN I get: cash flow to -$18.50/mo, CoC -2.46%, DCR 0.88.

    That's the ONLY scenario in my whole pipeline where the deal cash-flows on day one, and it requires the seller to cut $225k off their asking price.

    Every other property I've modeled tells the same story: Rents in this market are roughly $3,000–$5,000 on multifamilies priced $650k–$900k. The 1% rule is a fantasy here.  Most properties land at 0.6–0.8% rent-to-price.

    My questions for the community:

    1. Are my assumptions off?  The 8/10/10 vacancy/maintenance/capex savings feels standard but my realtor tells me many investors run leaner.  Am I being too conservative?  Is there a number I'm padding that shouldn't be?

    2. Are my expectations off?  Is "day-one positive cash flow at 25% down" just not a realistic ask in 2026 in a desirable mountain/college/tourist market?  If so, what ARE reasonable expectations here - Break-even with appreciation upside?  Slight negative with the plan to refinance later?  I'm so new that I don't know what "good" looks like in a market, so I'm relying on assumptions baked into spreadsheets.  

    3. Am I looking at the wrong deals? Should I be hunting MTR/STR conversions, house-hacks, BRRRR candidates, seller-financed deals, something other than vanilla buy-and-hold? Is there a structure I'm not considering that makes these properties work?

    4. Is the market just wrong for me right now?  Totally open to hearing "kid, this isn't a cash-flow market, it's an appreciation market; go look at the Midwest if you want cash flow."  I'd much rather hear that now than after I'm locked into a bad deal.

    I'm not married to any of this.  I'd much rather get chastised on a forum than learn the lesson by writing a check every month for ten years. Beat me up, recalibrate me, point me at resources I should be reading.  I'll take whatever you've got and will cheerfully adjust my headspace and timing.  

    Thanks in advance.


    If you're not embarrassed with your offer, than it's not low enough!

    STOP worrying about what the seller or agents will think about your offer.

    Make offers at amounts that make your numbers work.

    You may have to look at 100 properties, make 10 offers, to get ONE accepted!

    Investing is work - didn't you know that?

  • Jaron WallingPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4mo

    @Lee W. Like @Drew Sygit said it takes work to find a deal that pencils out. The work comes in different forms and you get to choose which form suits you. You're not crazy. It's the same in my market and the prices are cheaper.  

    From my experience you need to find/buy a distressed duplex for $635k (if not less) and BRRRR that property. It's a win-win that creates CF or possible flip if you're not happy with the numbers. It's highly unlikely you're getting an offer accepted that's $225k BELOW asking. That's the truth. It's very likely you get a low offer accepted on a problem property. If you don't have experience with remodeling start connecting with contactors. PAY them $100 to meet you at a property you're interested in. Learn from them, ask questions, take pictures, built a repour, and then use that knowledge to make low ball offers. In my opinion, in 2026, any duplex that's rent ready or a house-hack opportunity is mostly for first home buyers. You don't sound like a first time home buyer. Cheers. 

  • Member since 2021 · 14 posts · 4 votes
    4mo

    1.  I think you did a good job on the numbers you are running.  I have rentals in Bozeman, and the cost of getting anything repaired or maintained is through the roof.  I think that 10% is justified for repair/maintenance and cap ex.  Also vacancy is a real thing, and it's smart to include 8% for that expense.  

    2.  It's the market you're in.  It's a very desirable area.  I would recommend against buying something that loses money with the thought of refinancing later to make the deal work.  It's a big gamble, and interest rates might just go up further.

    3. I've done STR and currently have an MTR. STR market is saturated, very competitive, and getting more regulated. It takes a lot of time and money to run an STR, and I think it's getting harder and harder to make them pencil out. An MTR isn't a bad way to go. They do bring in more money, and are not as much work and are not as expensive as an STR. I'd recommend house hacking as a lower risk strategy. If you can afford the duplex, live in one unit, and rent out the other great. If that's too expensive, then maybe a single family home that you live in and rent out the other bedrooms.

    4.  Missoula isn't a cash flow market, but if you can find a decent deal I'd bet it will appreciate well over the next 20 years.  Even if you can make the mortgage more affordable for yourself by house hacking that's a win.  You get to own a home in one of the most beautiful places on earth.  

    5.  There is a Missoula real estate investment group that meets regularly (the last time I checked).  Might be worth linking up with them.  Good luck Lee.

  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    4mo

    @Lee W.

    sounds like you've put a fair amount of actual work in so far, so that's great.

    i think you hit on a couple features of the market right now with your points 3 and 4.  generally speaking, there is no cash flow anywhere right now on non-value add long term rentals.  (and if it makes you feel better, not in the midwest either.)  so unless you're a HNWI that can just buy high quality rentals in an A or B area, not worry about anything, and hold them for 37 years (i'm not) most of us have to do something different.

    for example, i'm BRRRRing, and i look to break even on rent when i'm done.  (and i'm in the mythical midwest.) the point is the equity.

    so yes - you'll have to do something different.  look off market.  MTR.  seller finance.  make 100 offers, and get lucky on 1.  all are a lot of work and come with risk.

    hope this helps.

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    4mo
    Quote from @Lee W.:

    Hey BP, long-time listener, first time caller here.  I'm at the very beginning of my real estate journey and I believe I'm in need of a reality-check from people further down the road than me.

    I'm looking at long-term buy-and-hold rentals in northwestern Montana, and I'm fortunate enough to be about an hour's drive from a college town (to my south) and a tourist-driven town (to my north).  Over the last couple months I've run BiggerPockets calculator-analyses on three or four dozen small multi-family properties at list price, and then re-run them with progressively more aggressive offers - 5%, 10%, sometimes 20% below asking price.  Almost none of them cash-flow on day one.  

    I want to make sure I'm not the problem before I conclude the market is. Here's one representative deal so you can see exactly what I'm working with:

    Property: ~$860k duplex in town

    - Rent: $4,700/mo (existing tenants)

    - 25% down, 7.10% on a 30-year conventional

    - Insurance: $300/mo

    - Taxes: $360/mo

    - Vacancy: 8% of rent

    - Maintenance: 10% of rent

    - CapEx: 10% of rent

    - No HOA, utilities tenant-paid

    At list price, monthly cash flow is -$1115, cash-on-cash -7%, DCR 0.65.

    If I get the seller to take 10% off ($775k, my "reach" offer): cash flow goes to -$687/mo, CoC -5.6%, DCR 0.72.

    If I want to get into 'disrespectful offer' territory and hail-mary a $635k offer, THEN I get: cash flow to -$18.50/mo, CoC -2.46%, DCR 0.88.

    That's the ONLY scenario in my whole pipeline where the deal cash-flows on day one, and it requires the seller to cut $225k off their asking price.

    Every other property I've modeled tells the same story: Rents in this market are roughly $3,000–$5,000 on multifamilies priced $650k–$900k. The 1% rule is a fantasy here.  Most properties land at 0.6–0.8% rent-to-price.

    My questions for the community:

    1. Are my assumptions off?  The 8/10/10 vacancy/maintenance/capex savings feels standard but my realtor tells me many investors run leaner.  Am I being too conservative?  Is there a number I'm padding that shouldn't be?

    2. Are my expectations off?  Is "day-one positive cash flow at 25% down" just not a realistic ask in 2026 in a desirable mountain/college/tourist market?  If so, what ARE reasonable expectations here - Break-even with appreciation upside?  Slight negative with the plan to refinance later?  I'm so new that I don't know what "good" looks like in a market, so I'm relying on assumptions baked into spreadsheets.  

    3. Am I looking at the wrong deals? Should I be hunting MTR/STR conversions, house-hacks, BRRRR candidates, seller-financed deals, something other than vanilla buy-and-hold? Is there a structure I'm not considering that makes these properties work?

    4. Is the market just wrong for me right now?  Totally open to hearing "kid, this isn't a cash-flow market, it's an appreciation market; go look at the Midwest if you want cash flow."  I'd much rather hear that now than after I'm locked into a bad deal.

    I'm not married to any of this.  I'd much rather get chastised on a forum than learn the lesson by writing a check every month for ten years. Beat me up, recalibrate me, point me at resources I should be reading.  I'll take whatever you've got and will cheerfully adjust my headspace and timing.  

    Thanks in advance.


     an $800k rental based on your numbers will not pencil out. I would look for something more affordable and is in walkable area that will get good rents but also not break the bank. There are still plenty of good deals out there, one thing to remember in real estate also is its the long game not the short game. if you are planning to own for less than 5 years you are not gonna make a lot of money based on the current real estate economics which are more of the norm of how things are. its hold for long term and let it appreciate and let rents increase over time, But starting at a $800k duplex is gonna be a  challenge

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    • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
      Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
      2mo
      Quote from @Chris Seveney:
      Quote from @Lee W.:

      Hey BP, long-time listener, first time caller here.  I'm at the very beginning of my real estate journey and I believe I'm in need of a reality-check from people further down the road than me.

      I'm looking at long-term buy-and-hold rentals in northwestern Montana, and I'm fortunate enough to be about an hour's drive from a college town (to my south) and a tourist-driven town (to my north).  Over the last couple months I've run BiggerPockets calculator-analyses on three or four dozen small multi-family properties at list price, and then re-run them with progressively more aggressive offers - 5%, 10%, sometimes 20% below asking price.  Almost none of them cash-flow on day one.  

      I want to make sure I'm not the problem before I conclude the market is. Here's one representative deal so you can see exactly what I'm working with:

      Property: ~$860k duplex in town

      - Rent: $4,700/mo (existing tenants)

      - 25% down, 7.10% on a 30-year conventional

      - Insurance: $300/mo

      - Taxes: $360/mo

      - Vacancy: 8% of rent

      - Maintenance: 10% of rent

      - CapEx: 10% of rent

      - No HOA, utilities tenant-paid

      At list price, monthly cash flow is -$1115, cash-on-cash -7%, DCR 0.65.

      If I get the seller to take 10% off ($775k, my "reach" offer): cash flow goes to -$687/mo, CoC -5.6%, DCR 0.72.

      If I want to get into 'disrespectful offer' territory and hail-mary a $635k offer, THEN I get: cash flow to -$18.50/mo, CoC -2.46%, DCR 0.88.

      That's the ONLY scenario in my whole pipeline where the deal cash-flows on day one, and it requires the seller to cut $225k off their asking price.

      Every other property I've modeled tells the same story: Rents in this market are roughly $3,000–$5,000 on multifamilies priced $650k–$900k. The 1% rule is a fantasy here.  Most properties land at 0.6–0.8% rent-to-price.

      My questions for the community:

      1. Are my assumptions off?  The 8/10/10 vacancy/maintenance/capex savings feels standard but my realtor tells me many investors run leaner.  Am I being too conservative?  Is there a number I'm padding that shouldn't be?

      2. Are my expectations off?  Is "day-one positive cash flow at 25% down" just not a realistic ask in 2026 in a desirable mountain/college/tourist market?  If so, what ARE reasonable expectations here - Break-even with appreciation upside?  Slight negative with the plan to refinance later?  I'm so new that I don't know what "good" looks like in a market, so I'm relying on assumptions baked into spreadsheets.  

      3. Am I looking at the wrong deals? Should I be hunting MTR/STR conversions, house-hacks, BRRRR candidates, seller-financed deals, something other than vanilla buy-and-hold? Is there a structure I'm not considering that makes these properties work?

      4. Is the market just wrong for me right now?  Totally open to hearing "kid, this isn't a cash-flow market, it's an appreciation market; go look at the Midwest if you want cash flow."  I'd much rather hear that now than after I'm locked into a bad deal.

      I'm not married to any of this.  I'd much rather get chastised on a forum than learn the lesson by writing a check every month for ten years. Beat me up, recalibrate me, point me at resources I should be reading.  I'll take whatever you've got and will cheerfully adjust my headspace and timing.  

      Thanks in advance.


       an $800k rental based on your numbers will not pencil out. I would look for something more affordable and is in walkable area that will get good rents but also not break the bank. There are still plenty of good deals out there, one thing to remember in real estate also is its the long game not the short game. if you are planning to own for less than 5 years you are not gonna make a lot of money based on the current real estate economics which are more of the norm of how things are. its hold for long term and let it appreciate and let rents increase over time, But starting at a $800k duplex is gonna be a  challenge


      Nw west Montana is expensive if your looking at Missoula area.. need to go over to Butte Anaconda were things will pencil.. I have fund a few in Anaconda that worked fine for my client. its a location issue.  Like Bozeman is very expensive 
  • Dominic RosatoBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Jersey City, NJ · Member since 2022 · 82 posts · 61 votes
    4mo

    Hi Lee, this sounds familiar to anyone investing in a desirable market right now and it has been true in Jersey City for years too. The numbers rarely work perfectly on day one but people who got in 5/10/20 years ago are very happy they did because appreciation and rent growth eventually change everything.

    I would take another look at the house hack angle you mentioned since living in one unit and renting the other completely changes the math and gets you in the door without needing the deal to cash flow on its own. This is the best way to get started, IMO.

  • Lee W.Pro Member
    OP
    Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 7 votes
    4mo

    Thanks for all the feedback, friends!  Another thing that my realtor texted me:

    "I sat in on a meeting with my boss and we talked about helping
    investors, such as yourself. One thing that I got out of it was the #s
    associated with how properties increase in value and what to expect from
    rental income year to year. Basically, and this is being conservative, a
    property in a market like ours should appreciate 5% per year.
    Interestingly, rent too increases 5% per year. So, between appreciation
    and rental increase, that's a 10% increase per year."

    I've been running my long-term numbers (expected returns at years 2 thru 10) with a 3% rent increase, 3% property appreciation, and 3% expenses-increase.  Have I been too conservative with that?  Bumping those up to 5% does drastically change things, especially with a few properties that were 'borderline', but I worry my realtor is either inexperienced, or just trying to get me to move on a property, etc.  What numbers do you all put on your long-term calculations for those kinds of things?

    • Drew SygitBusiness Member
      Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 13k+ posts · 9k+ votes
      1h

      Where's the agent's proof to support this?

      Also, you can NOT add 5% value appreciation to 5% rent appreciation to equal 10% appreciation!

      • Rent => cashflow, so immediate benefit

      • Value => can't realize benefit unless refi or sell.

      Another note after reviewing your metrics again - lose the CapEx 10%. The logic is sound, but no one really saves that money, so what's the point?

  • Nicholas L.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    4mo

    @Lee W.

    have you been too conservative?  no.  listen to a few of the recent BP podcasts.  @Dave Meyer recommends underwriting deals with 0 appreciation.

  • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4mo

    Cash flow is the tiniest portion of return. In most quality markets you will be mostly growth for your expected return. But you should find deals that atleast cashflow a little and cover their costs. Look at 4 units. In my area 2 units also do not cashflow but 3 and 4 units do. You also may be off for vacancy. Assuming you are also in a class A area we see under 3% vacancy. Main/Capex also has nothing to do with gross rents in fact the higher the gross rents the lower the operating costs usually as the tenants take better care of the place, that number may be high.

  • Jaron WallingPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4mo

    @Lee W. "Basically, and this is being conservative, a
    property in a market like ours should appreciate 5% per year.
    Interestingly, rent too increases 5% per year.
    " - THIS IS SALES TALK. Don't let them "sell" you on anything. Rely on your numbers. It's doubtful your market is appreciating that quickly in 2026. Most markets are 0-2% right now. Rent increases are flat as well. 

    • Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
      4mo
      Quote from @Jaron Walling:

      @Lee W. "Basically, and this is being conservative, a
      property in a market like ours should appreciate 5% per year.
      Interestingly, rent too increases 5% per year.
      " - THIS IS SALES TALK. Don't let them "sell" you on anything. Rely on your numbers. It's doubtful your market is appreciating that quickly in 2026. Most markets are 0-2% right now. Rent increases are flat as well. 


      Actually, rent is actually more like +3% per year, but appreciation is about there. You can go back the last 100 years. RE doubles every 15 or so years in price - inflation makes sure of that. You just have to zoom out a little to past the "this year and next year" frame.

      In the 60s you could have get a house built brand new for 15k. Including the lot and wait for it: AIR CONDITIONING!

  • Member since 2026 · 72 posts · 30 votes
    4mo
  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 877 votes
    4mo

    First, I don't think you're the problem.

    In fact, the fact that you're running conservative numbers and questioning your assumptions before buying is a good sign. Based on what you've shared, it sounds like you're discovering something many investors eventually learn: some markets are primarily cash-flow markets, some are primarily appreciation markets, and some sit somewhere in between. A desirable mountain, college, and tourist market often commands prices that make traditional long-term rental cash flow difficult at today's interest rates.

    Could your assumptions be a little conservative? Maybe. But even if you cut a few percentage points from your reserves, it doesn't sound like that would transform these deals from strongly negative to strongly positive.The question I'd ask is whether you're trying to force a cash-flow strategy into a market that isn't naturally producing cash flow. That doesn't make the market bad. It just means the strategy may need to change. House hacking, value-add opportunities, seller financing, or other approaches might work better than buying stabilized duplexes at retail pricing.

    One thing I've noticed as a co-founder of a co-investing club is that many successful investors don't start by asking, "How do I make this deal work?" They start by asking, "What strategy does this market support?"

    Your analysis may be telling you exactly what you need to know.

  • Real Estate Broker · Billings, MT · Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 5 votes
    4mo

    Hello from Billings Lee! I think if your ultimate goal is to build a portfolio of properties in a certain location you have to be more open minded on your strategy. If you were my client, I would be on the hunt for underpriced single family homes that could be easily be converted into multi-families, or have large lots that could have ADU's or a second building on it. I also find SO many listings that are single family homes that already have a non-conforming apartment downstairs that is not mentioned anywhere in the description, I discover it when clicking through the pictures!

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Member since 2026 · 10 posts · 3 votes
    4mo
    I tell everyone the same thing - A bad deal is worse than no deal! Be patient, nothing is more painful and frustrating than a bad deal!!
  • Investor · Bozeman, MT · Member since 2026 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    2mo

    Hi @Lee W., I've been looking for properties actually with people like you in mind after reading this post earlier in the summer. 

    I have a property available in Kalispell for under 300k that is a smaller home, near the high school, currently rented and could be STRed, with the lot zoned for a duplex. I think it's a great opportunity to create some positive cashflow while deepening your investment potential by building exactly duplex you are looking for, the without a high barrier to entry.

    Let me know if you are interested; I'd love to share the details with you.

  • Jake YuskaitisBusiness Member
    Lender · New Jersey, USA · Member since 2022 · 254 posts · 67 votes
    2mo

    remember this

    most deals will not pencil

    good deals are always hard to find

    if it was that easy everyone would do it

  • John HayesBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Whitefish, MT · Member since 2023 · 24 posts · 5 votes
    2mo

    @Johanna Kinne, I'd be interested in details on your place in Kalispell.

    PureWest Christie's Real Estate
  • Investor · Bozeman, MT · Member since 2026 · 12 posts · 4 votes
    1mo

    Hi @John Hayes The one I posted about last month is no longer available, but I have one I just acquired just outside of Polson with lake access. If you are interested in that would love to connect. I just sent you a request.

  • Lee W.Pro Member
    OP
    Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 7 votes
    20h

    Oh wow, they just read my question on Real Estate Rookie! Thanks Tony and Ashley, this was super helpful!

    For folks following along, I've been continuing to analyze properties for the last ~4 months and... it hasn't gotten better. My realtor and I put in a new offer yesterday, which probably won't be accepted, but it was a stretch to make even those numbers work. I'll ask my realtor about what the MTR and STR game looks like, and maybe start being less hesitant about out-of-town RE investing. As this would be my first property, I have been hanging onto the idea of "oh I can totally just show up and fix any real problems" as a security blanket.


    This week's offer

    Property: ~$575k duplex in-town

    - Rent: $2225/mo (existing very long-term tenants)

    - 25% down, 7.375% on a 30-year conventional

    - Insurance: $175/mo

    - Taxes: $307/mo (strong chance this goes UP in 2027 due to local ordinance changes)

    - Vacancy: 2% of rent (putting the number here due to extremely long-term tenants)

    - Maintenance: 5% of rent (recommended, per Tony & Ashley, thanks again!)

    - CapEx: 5% of rent

    - No HOA, sewer and water paid by landlord (estimating $125/mo)

    - house built in 1980, recently had $75k of work put into the exterior to the tune of a new roof in 2024, new siding + painting in 2026, and 'recently' new garage doors and decks.

    At list price, monthly cash flow is -$1628/mo, cash-on-cash -12.35%, DCR 0.45

    If I get the seller to take 10% off ($517,500k, my "reach" offer): cash flow goes to -$1330/mo, CoC -11.21%, DCR 0.50.

    If I want to get into 'disrespectful offer' territory and hail-mary a $450k offer, THEN I get: cash flow to -$980/mo, CoC -9.5%, DCR 0.58.

    What pencils is $261k or below. Getting the seller to take more than half off would then get us to:
    cash flow to -$1/mo, CoC -0.02%, DCR 1.0!

    to be fair, the seller is also a realtor and admits the interior of the property could use some work. They are of the opinion with an interior refresh, we could bump rent to $3400/mo - no mention of how much it would take to do that refresh (I haven't walked the property yet), and I would almost assuredly lose the tenant that's been there since 2009 and probably the tenant that's been there since 2020.

    With $3400/mo gross rental income, that means with everything else the same:
    asking ($575k): cash flow -$594/mo, CoC -4.5%. DCR 0.80

    reach ($517.5k): cash flow -$296/mo, CoC -2.49%, DCR 0.89

    penciling at $460k: +$2/mo, CoC 0.02%, DCR 1.0

    • Jaron WallingPro Member
      Rental Property Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      19h

      "What pencils is $261k or below." - No offense but why are you even considering this property? If the property recently had $75k worth of work completed there's almost zero chance they would take that offer. There's mostly no value add here either. Sounds like a nice duplex but the numbers are terrible for an investor.

  • Lee W.Pro Member
    OP
    Member since 2026 · 5 posts · 7 votes
    19h

    It is my job to make offers with numbers that work. It is their job to figure out why their answer is going to be 'no'. I'm not in the business of doing their job for them, basically. I made an offer with optimistic numbers, per my realtor's advice. If they accept, the plan is to walk the property to get an idea of my costs to improve the interior so I can bring the rents in-line with the rest of the market, and start asking for concessions. If it works, great. If it doesn't, then.... we're right back where we started.

    What is absolutely beguiling to me is.... who the heck is buying all the other properties I've been looking at, offered on, etc?!?!?! More than half of the properties I was looking at or offered on with my math have sold. The others are either still on the market (with modest price-decreases, now that we're firmly into 'fall') or have gone off-market. Seeing all these other properties sell is what is giving me significant FOMO and concern that my math is wrong.

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