I want to buy my first rental property but I'm wondering if I should wait until the crash that is supposedly coming. I'm worried that if I buy now, my property will end up being worth half of what I paid after a few years.

What crash are speaking of? The one they've been predicting for the past 20 years?

Even if a crash does come, which I doubt, there will be other reasons to delay investing. Interest rates went up. Now you're waiting for them to fall. Then they do, but prices are starting to climb again. So you wait til prices go down. Before you know it, 10 years have passed and you still haven't jumped in. There will never be a time when every light is green.

I've been reading posts about the coming crash on this site for years. Still not here. Still waiting...

Smart, don't buy any rentals. Leave us dumb people to deal with the government.

Find a good deal and buy it. They're less common nowadays but still exist. If you wait for a "crash" it could be six months or eight years. I don't see one in the near future based on the things that drive real estate.

I have probably answered this question a hundred times over the last few years. Most of the time the question is posed by a first time poster, who five years later has still only posted one thread. These questions seem to come from people are casually interested and will never do a deal. Maybe you are different @Giselle Black? I typically respond with "Waiting for a crash is a fools game. Nobody can predict the top or the bottom of the market, so you are just left waiting and never buy. If you don't have the courage to buy in a hot market, you won't buy in a down market, when people are loosing their jobs and money supply disappears." Just like @Nick Barlow mentioned people who won't invest in good times will not invest in bad times. Even in the hardest hit markets during the housing crisis, only a few markets saw prices drop 50% (Florida and Arizona were two of them). On average nationwide prices fell around 30%, but that varied by market and even within a market there were micro-markets that performed better. My market saw prices fall around 15%, but we also had less run-up prior to the crash than other markets. It is all relative. Every market has since recovered, so people who held real estate lost nothing. Understand that a crash means nobody is buying, which likely includes YOU. Partly because they are scared, but also because they can't. Back in 2010 when I was shopping deals, the banks were very tight with lending. There was a 4 mortgage limit put in place (since changed to 10) and they had additional cash reserve requirements put in place. Half the people getting loans now would not have qualified. I recommend using 'dollar-cost averaging' for all your investing. This concept is common when investing in the stock market. The strategy acknowledges that you can't time the market, so just keep buying through the ups and downs. This strategy works because the most important factor in any investing is time. With the power of time in real estate you get cash flow, appreciation and debt pay down.

People have been predicting a crash for a decade. Also, a plateau is not a "crash" and a 5-7% pullback (if we have one) is not a "crash".

@Giselle Black A. Your a first time investor, thus there are many reasons not to invest. B. Or you never invest because you can’t find a great deal in this market. Key for you is to just start. Don’t worry about a great deal. This will be a great education you can’t get reading posts or watching podcasts. Pick an easy deal. No major renovations. Little paint, new carpet, some landscaping Will the value go down? The market your in, look at values before and after 2008. If your in a real large city see if your in a protected area. College section, governmental, hospital area, etc. Look at your investment and the market your in and determine how much it might drop relative to 2008. Can you take that? You can only get nailed if your doing a fix and flip. If holding for cash flow or appreciation for many years your fine.

There might be a crash in the next year and there might not be. You might wait a while and instead of waiting, you could get your feet wet and have a few properties under your belt. Then you will be better prepared for a crash. Just remember to make sure the property that you buy has good cash flow and you will be fine.

Should I wait for 'the crash' before I buy my first property?Should I wait for 'the crash' before I buy my first property?

Back

Resources & Media

Resource Hub Bookstore Blog Guides Pro-Exclusives PRO Podcasts Pro Partnerships Property Management Toolkit

Events & Training

BPCON2025 Webinars Upcoming Events Free Courses

Strategies

How to Manage Your Rental Property How to Operate a Short-Term Rental How to Passively Invest in Real Estate How to House Hack How Does the BRRRR Method Work How to Flip a House How to Invest in Commercial Real Estate How to Invest in Real Estate How to Invest in Multifamily Real Estate How to Build Wealth

The BiggerPockets Conference

This is your chance to learn from the best, network with the best, and become one of the best in the game.

Discover BPCON2025

The Podcast Investors Trust

No fluff. Just deals, strategies, and lessons from the front lines of today's market.

Listen Now

Back

Pick Markets

Market Finder - NEW PRO Picking a Market Workshop PRO Picking a Market Worksheet Top 100 Cash Flow Markets Market Insights - Sunbelt Region

Market finder

Pinpoint the best real estate market for your specific goals with expert recommendations and real-time data on appreciation, affordability, rent-to-price ratio, and more.

Pick Markets

Pro membership

Get unlimited access to tools and resources that make it easier to find, analyze, and manage deals with confidence!

Upgrade to Pro

Back

Find Deals

BiggerDeals NEW Off-Market Deal finding PRO Real Estate Syndications Investor-Friendly Agents Find Foreclosures Community Listings (FSBO) Business Directory

NEW! Find Cash-Flowing Deals Fast

Search nationwide listings with built-in cash flow analysis.

Find Deals

Invelo - off market deals

Scale your portfolio with off-market deals.

Explore Now

Back

Calculators

Rental Property Calculator PRO Rehab Estimator PRO Rent Estimator PRO BRRRR PRO Fix & Flip PRO Short-Term Rental PRO Sell vs. Keep PRO Landlord Insurance Calculator by Steadily All Calculators

Rental property calculator

Is it a good deal? Run your numbers like a pro with this simple yet powerful calculator.

Run the Numbers

Rent estimator

Understand how much rental income you can expect based on recent reports and data for your specific property.

Run Report

Back

Manage Properties

Managing Properties 101 Find a Property Manager RentRedi Property Management Software PRO Baselane Automated Bookkeeping & Banking PRO Property Management Tools Ask a Management Question Finding Tenants Screening Tenants PRO Leases + Landlord Forms PRO Property Insurance Property Maintenance / Rehab PRO

Property management software

Manage tenants, tasks, and your entire portfolio with one simple tool.

Activate Now

Property manager finder

Find reliable property management partnerships that last.

Find a Property Manager

Back

Plans & Pricing

Pro Membership Business Membership

Try PRO for 7 days completly free

Avoid mistakes and make informed decisions with Pro.

Start Free Trial

Grow your business

Promote your business on BiggerPockets and make quality connections with the right investors.

Sign Up Now

Back

For You

Newest Unanswered My Discussions Followed Discussions Followed Categories Followed Locations Followed People

General Real Estate

General Real Estate Investing Starting Out Deal Analysis Buying & Selling Business & Marketing Landlording Property Management Reviews & Feedback

Real Estate Strategies

House Hacking BRRRR Short-Term Rentals Mid-Term Rentals Multi-Family Fix & Flip Other Strategies

Finance & Financing

Lending Creative Finance Personal Finance Taxes & Legal Issues

News & Announcements

Official Site Announcements Market Trends & Data Real Estate News & Current Events Pro Exclusive Area PRO

Events & Networking

Events & Meetups Classifieds

Back

All Books

Best Sellers Browse All New Books & Pre-Orders Bundle & Save Books for Beginners

Unlock hidden potential in every property and maximize returns

This is your creative breakthrough guide to escaping investment paralysis and unlocking hidden profit in any market.

Pre-order now

Build a Cash-Flowing Glamping Business with High Equity Upside

Whether you're starting from scratch or expanding existing hospitality operations, learn the practical frameworks needed to capitalize on the growing demand for upscale outdoor experiences.

Learn More

Should I wait for 'the crash' before I buy my first property?

Most Popular Reply