Hello @Katie Tran,
I agree completely with your sentiment regarding the importance of investing safely. However, California may not be the most favorable state for investment due to various reasons such as rent control, anti-landlord legislation, high costs, and high taxes.
In this post, I will provide a straightforward process for selecting a city where:
- Rents outpace inflation: Inflation consistently erodes the purchasing power of a fixed amount of money. For instance, if the inflation rate is 5%, what you can buy today for $100 will cost $155 in 10 years. If rents fail to pace with the cost of living, your financial independence will be short-lived.
- Persistent: Your rental income will last a long time, you will not outlive your income.
What are the consequences of buying in a city where rental rates do not outpace inflation?
An example will illustrate the problem. Suppose you purchase a property with an initial cash flow of $1,000 per month. The rent growth rate is assumed to be 2%, which is a common growth rate, and the inflation rate is 5%. The table below lists inflation-adjusted purchasing power for the first ten years.
After ten years, $1,000 will only be able to buy 61% (100% - 39%) of what it can buy today. So, if you buy in any city where rents do not outpace inflation, no matter how many properties you own, you will soon be forced back to work.
What causes prices and rents to rise or fall?
Supply and Demand
In real estate, prices and rents are determined by the imbalance between the number of buyers and sellers.
- When there are more sellers than buyers, prices decline until there is a rough balance between the number of buyers and sellers.
- When the number of buyers exceeds the number of sellers, prices increase until there is a rough balance between the number of buyers and sellers.
Rents follow prices.
- Higher prices reduce the number of people who can purchase, increasing demand for rental properties and increasing rents.
- Lower prices enable more people to purchase, decreasing demand for rental properties and decreasing rents.
What determines demand?
Population Change
Prices and rents only rise significantly if there is sustained and significant population growth. This is our first city selection requirement:
✅ Significant and sustained population growth.
Jobs
The number one reason people move to a city is jobs. However, all private sector jobs are temporary. The average lifespan of a company is about 10 years, an S&P 500 company is only 18 years. Unless new companies move in and create replacement jobs, only low-paying service sector jobs will remain. As higher-paying jobs disappear, incomes in the area decline. Cities are funded by property taxes and sales taxes. When the area income falls, property taxes and sales taxes fall. Cities are then forced to cut back on services. As services are reduced, this leads to increased crime rates and lower-quality schools, which in turn causes more people to leave.
What are the requirements for a city to attract new employers?
✅ Low operating costs
✅ Low crime rate
✅ Low risk of a natural disaster
✅ Sufficient population to have economic stability, major highways, and a major airport. This usually requires a population >1M. Smaller cities tend to be dependent on a single company or market sector.
✅ No rent control of any kind. Rent control is a strong indicator of an intrusive government.
City Selection Process
Begin by evaluating cities with a metro population of more than one million. This is the easiest criterion to apply and will reduce the number of cities to be evaluated. After this, apply additional elimination criteria in the order from the easiest to the most time-intensive. This will save time and increase efficiency.
- Cities with a metro population >1M. Wikipedia
- Significant and sustained population growth. Wikipedia
- Low crime rate - Never invest in any city on Neighborhood Scout’s 100 most dangerous cities list.
- Low risk of a natural disaster - Homeowners insurance rates are a good indicator of the potential for a natural disaster to occur. The higher the rate, the higher the probability of a natural disaster. Insurance - ValuePenguin
- Low operating costs - The two most significant operating costs for an investor are property taxes and insurance.
- No rent control of any kind: Google search
The result is a short list of potential candidate cities. The next selection/elimination criteria is an experienced local investment team.
Experienced Local Investment Team
Why do you need a local investment team? Everything you learn from podcasts, books, seminars, and websites is general knowledge. But you will buy a specific property, in a specific location, subject to local rules and regulations. The only source for the local knowledge you need is an investment team.
Also, an experienced local investment team already has the skills, processes, expertise, and resources you need to identify, validate, renovate, and manage properties, saving you time, money, and risk.
Working with an investment team usually does not cost more. For instance, we have delivered over 480 properties and charged our clients a fee on only four or five of them, and only in exceptional circumstances. In all other cases, the fees were paid by the listing agent of the seller, not by our client.
By working with an investment team, you also receive a master class on real-world investment training at no cost to you.