Contractor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 887 posts · 323 votes
Hello BP!
Here's a quick question for you:
If a city you were planning on investing in showed a decline in population growth since 2010 would you still invest in it?
Thank you BP!
Jorge
Try to understand what drives the local economy. Some areas are very dependent on a couple large companies leading to swings in prospects. Some areas are very dependent upon recreation and have large swings with the overall economy.
Since 2010 many companies have had slow but positive growth. Did people move away because they thought local industries would never recover or because they could find better work right away if they moved. A population decline for the last 6 years is something that should be understood before investing.
I guess my first question would be: How much of a decline in population? Is this a dip that's going to rebound? Is this because jobs are leaving like crazy?
It could be a slump the city is in, but that may mean that the rentals are now "on sale".
So, to answer your question, no it wouldn't prevent me from investing, I'd just want to know more info before I made that decision.
Try to understand what drives the local economy. Some areas are very dependent on a couple large companies leading to swings in prospects. Some areas are very dependent upon recreation and have large swings with the overall economy.
Since 2010 many companies have had slow but positive growth. Did people move away because they thought local industries would never recover or because they could find better work right away if they moved. A population decline for the last 6 years is something that should be understood before investing.
Hi @Account Closed ... which city are you looking at?
Some areas like Silicon Valley have published reports available (Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies) which I suspect sell info to local companies. Local newspapers can sometimes be a good source but rarely a quick source of info.
I often look for the city's "comprehensive financial report" (put out by the city itself) which lists major employers. If you look back through old ones you can sometimes see changes.
@Account Closed ... incorporated cities put together an annual financial statement. In Silicon Valley doing a web search for "city name comprehensive financial report" will almost always find it for the "city name" you are interested in. Blue Island used "comprehensive plan".
I suspect you will be able to find a report for almost any city you are interested in by searching for something similar to "city name comprehensive financial report" or "city name comprehensive plan". The reports typically list the 10 largest employers. By looking at previous years, you can see some of the ways the city is changing.
No, I would not invest in a market with declining population. Now here is a quick question for you: You currently live in a market showing an increase in population growth since 2010 and highly limited housing supply; why won't you invest in it?
@David Faulkner don't have the type of cash to invest in this area.
You don't have 3.5% to put down locally, but you have 25% to put down out of state? I've heard there is now FHA 0% down for 104% of appraised value ... not saying I would necessarily make a blanket suggestion for this product, but will say that where there is a will there's a way, and you retain control over your investment locally while you don't out of state, which dramatically jacks up your risk out of state, especially for a newbie without scale or experience.
Hello BP!
Here's a quick question for you:
If a city you were planning on investing in showed a decline in population growth since 2010 would you still invest in it?
Thank you BP!
Jorge
Depends on if the returns still make sense for your strategy. Sometimes the answer could be yes!