📈 NAR Predicts Double-Digit Growth in Home Sales for 2026- What’s Your Take?

Question

The National Association of Realtors is forecasting a major rebound in 2026, with double-digit growth in home sales and home prices projected to rise another 4%.
They’re also predicting the economy will add 1.3 million new jobs, keeping demand strong despite the ongoing housing supply shortage.

After three years of the lowest sales volume since 1995, this would be a huge shift. Affordability issues sidelined a lot of buyers but NAR seems confident that pent-up demand, job growth, and tight inventory will push the market forward.

My thoughts:
A 4% price increase feels realistic given the supply constraints, but the real question is: will inventory finally loosen up, or will more buyers just fuel more competition? For investors, this could mean rising rents, tighter cash flow deals, but stronger long-term appreciation.

Curious to hear from this community:
👉 Do you think NAR’s outlook is too optimistic?
👉 How are you positioning your portfolio if prices keep climbing but supply stays tight?
👉 Are you planning to buy, hold, or sit tight heading into 2026?

Michael K Gallagher · Answer

would be interested in the raw data, I have a feeling even if its double digit yoy growth for home sales, then its still likely under what we had in 2019 meaning its still going to be a tight market.

Sheguina Dravk · Answer

@Jaron Walling Thank you for sharing! I am in agreement with you. NAR is optimistic about the real estate market meanwhile housing is still unaffordable. Not sure is Fannie Mae's no minimum credit score will help get Buyers into houses. They still need to afford the payment.

Jaron Walling · Answer

@Sheguina Dravk I think it's a bit optimistic to think buyers will continue saddling higher prices at a 6% interest rate in 2026. Most people can't afford to move. I see more activity in the $500k+ neighborhoods than we do with starter homes. The money is stuck at the top. Wages for all income levels need to catch up to prices. If you're in the middle class or lower it's cheaper to do nothing.

We have a listing that's $189k, fully remodeled, with a park across the street. Where are the buyers? This is cheap real estate compared to other neighborhoods. Most of our buyers are capped before they even began looking. I think that dynamic needs to change or this market is going to drag on into 2026, and you won't see that 4% growth YOY.