I’m currently under contract on my first LTR, and as I get closer to closing, I’m starting to get cold feet and would really appreciate some perspective from more experienced investors.

The property:

• Brand-new 2026 construction
• 4 bed / 2 bath SFH
• 1,828 sq. ft.
• Builder is offering a great interest rate + $20K toward closing costs
• I’ve already put down $10K in earnest money
• Planning to hold for approximately 5–7 years

I’m in the home stretch and basically just waiting to close. However, I’ve seriously started questioning whether I should move forward. Walking away would mean losing my $10K earnest money, so obviously I don’t take that lightly.

Here are the things making me nervous:

1. Future appreciation / new construction competition

Part of my investment thesis is that this area will continue to grow due to major tech, aerospace, and other employers expanding in the region.

However, I visited the property today (it’s about two hours from where I live), and what really stood out to me was the amount of vacant land owned by large builders with plans for additional new construction.

That concerns me because when I eventually sell in 5–10 years, I could potentially be competing against builders offering rate buydowns, closing-cost incentives, upgrades, etc. that individual sellers simply can’t compete with.

I’m wondering how much continued new construction could suppress appreciation or resale values in an area like this.

2. Tenant placement / vacancy

Another concern is how long it could realistically take to find a qualified tenant.

I’m expecting to close around mid-September, which puts me into what is generally considered a slower leasing season.

The numbers work reasonably well once the property is occupied, but I’m starting to run through worst-case scenarios in my head: What if it takes 3 months? 4 months? 6 months to find a tenant?

For those investing in similar markets, how much vacancy do you typically underwrite when purchasing a new LTR?

3. Limited immediate tax benefit

My MAGI is over $150K, so based on my understanding of the passive activity loss rules, I likely won’t be able to use rental losses to offset my W-2 income right now. Those suspended passive losses can potentially be used in future years, which is still valuable, but it removes one of the immediate benefits I initially associated with owning rental real estate.

That brings me back to appreciation. If I’m potentially dealing with negative/limited cash flow in the beginning, can’t immediately utilize the tax losses, and appreciation ends up being weaker than expected, I’m questioning whether the overall return justifies the risk.

4. And finally… maybe this is just first-investment anxiety?

This is probably the biggest thing I’m struggling to separate.

I’m naturally a worrier. I analyze everything, run worst-case scenarios, and question my decisions—especially when there’s a significant amount of money involved.

So I’m trying to figure out:

Are these legitimate red flags that should make me reconsider the deal, or is this the normal “what the heck am I doing?” feeling that comes with buying your first investment property?

For those who have been investing for a while: Did you experience this before your first rental? Were there deals you almost walked away from because of similar concerns?

I’d especially love to hear how you evaluate a deal when the biggest uncertainty is future appreciation + tenant demand + a large pipeline of new construction.

Any feedback, experiences, or things you think I should be analyzing before I make the final decision would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you!