Houston exurbs as attractive cash flow play?
Hi,
I am considering investing in my first rental buy-and-hold property here in Houston. I live in the Houston suburbs so naturally started looking here first. With the market recovery, it seems most of the properties in my area aren't likely to cash flow, but I believe I may have found a few houses even further away from Houston (in the "exurbs", should not be considered "suburbs" given distance from downtown) which may meet my requirements. Below is the investment thesis, and the high-level numbers. I would greatly appreciate some feedback and thoughts from the BiggerPockets community to see if this truly is an attractive investment or just a mirage.
Investment thesis
- Several manufacturing facilities moving into area, projected to create thousands of new jobs over next 2-3 years
- Little apartment supply close to these facilities currently, plans for 1-2 complexes to be constructed to meet expected demand but likely not enough, with SFH's needed to fill the gap
- Very low home prices compared to most of Houston given distance from downtown (30+ miles out)
- School ratings are mediocre currently but expected to improve as several new MPC's expected to build out adjacent to these houses, with much higher price points
- Potential to generate decent rental income currently, and potential for significant rental rate increases and house price appreciation as 1) Jobs continue to be created, 2) Schools slowly improve, and 3) Retail development picks up
- From personal standpoint, low price point attractive for my 1st investment property as it reduces upfront risk and allows me to enter with less financial resources
High-level numbers
- ~$140K purchase price for 3 bed 2 bath house (less than 5 years old)
- Total monthly payment of ~$1,000 per month for 30-year conventional with 20% down (including tax, HOA, home insurance) should be ~$1,000 per month
- Expected rent is $1,300 to $1,400 per month (based on comps of similar homes around area)
- With expected 80% vacancy rate (being conservative) + repair costs + time and effort spent doing property management (will do it myself), expecting to break even from cash flow basis in Year 1, with anticipated increase in rent allowing me to generate positive cash flow starting from Year 2
- Assuming 3% housing price appreciation per year, and an exit in 10 years, expecting 12%-14% IRR