"Hot" markets explained + why you should Buy Now!

"Hot" markets explained + why you should Buy Now!

Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes

Now is the time to BUY!

Here is what is occurring in virtually all "hot" real estate markets nationally:

"Hot" = strong population and job growth markets and therefore increasing price trend line 

This applies to San Jose, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Charlotte, Raleigh, Atlanta, Ft. Lauderdale and many other markets on the list below...  

This specifically is a chart of market price, as it moves through real estate market cycles in a "hot" market that has an increasing price trend line.  Once prices surpass the point in the center, your ability to cash-flow disappears (though there are a few exceptions). Again, although there are a few exceptions.... Generally... for SFRS with 4 bedroom / 2 baths, once price moves beyond $120/125K, generating cash-flow becomes difficult if not impossible.   With 3 bedroom / 2 baths, once price moves beyond $100/110K, generating cash-flow becomes difficult or impossible. In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom. Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.  In this chart, that is the point in the center.   Exceptions: Though unusual, it is possible for these situations to occur: Markets where rents are rising at the same rate as market prices.  Dallas MSA might apply, but although rents are rising quickly, I think prices are rising at a quicker rate. Fixers Acquired at Deep Discount.  Properties that you can acquire at a severe discount to market price because there is a significant problem with the problem and you're able to fix it for less than the discount you were able to negotiate on the purchase price. Other exceptions? Thoughts?

Hot Markets

Here is a list of states ranked by population growth percentage (column 3). For purposes of this post, I would define a "hot" market as markets that are in the top 20 in this chart.

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Investor · Dallas TX, United States · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
9y

This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y

    This is one of the worst possible times to buy real estate.

  • Investor · Dallas TX, United States · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    This is one of the worst possible times to buy real estate.

     I disagree. It depends on (1) where you're buying, (2) how much your paying, (3) what value you're adding, and (4) what your investment strategy is.  I'm buy and hold and I'm looking nationally.  There are always deals to be had, you just need to know where and how to look.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    This is one of the worst possible times to buy real estate.

     I disagree. It depends on (1) where you're buying, (2) how much your paying, (3) what value you're adding, and (4) what your investment strategy is.  I'm buy and hold and I'm looking nationally.  There are always deals to be had, you just need to know where and how to look.

     Okay but that's not what you're saying. You're basically saying, in a roundabout way, that real estate always goes up.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y

    Looking for cash-flow?

    If so, here are market's Ranked by Price-to-Rent ratios:

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    This is one of the worst possible times to buy real estate.

     I disagree. It depends on (1) where you're buying, (2) how much your paying, (3) what value you're adding, and (4) what your investment strategy is.  I'm buy and hold and I'm looking nationally.  There are always deals to be had, you just need to know where and how to look.

     Okay but that's not what you're saying. You're basically saying, in a roundabout way, that real estate always goes up.

    No, I'm not. Read what I wrote man!

    Prices are going up over the long-term in "hot" markets as I defined above.  If you have questions, please ask. Don't assume.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Josh Caldwell:

    This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

    The problem with markets like yours is that thanks to ridiculous prices in CA, every wannabe real estate mogul in CA is going out of state and driving prices through the roof by buying marginal deals, thinking they're going to build a real estate empire from 1000+ miles away. It's completely unsustainable and it's all going to come crashing down. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    This is one of the worst possible times to buy real estate.

     I disagree. It depends on (1) where you're buying, (2) how much your paying, (3) what value you're adding, and (4) what your investment strategy is.  I'm buy and hold and I'm looking nationally.  There are always deals to be had, you just need to know where and how to look.

     Okay but that's not what you're saying. You're basically saying, in a roundabout way, that real estate always goes up.

    No, I'm not. Read what I wrote man!

    Prices are going up over the long-term in "hot" markets as I defined above.  If you have questions, please ask. Don't assume.

    You know what circular reasoning is, right?

    Of course prices are going up in "hot" markets. That's why they're "hot". If prices were not going up, they wouldn't be "hot" markets anymore.

    Real estate does not and should not appreciate over the long long term. There is a wealth of data available on this.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

  • Real Estate Broker · Naples, FL · Member since 2013 · 9k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    9y

    There is only one reason to buy now: if you get a true deal. Paying market value hoping for appreciation is gambling.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @John Thedford:

    There is only one reason to buy now: if you get a true deal. Paying market value hoping for appreciation is gambling.

     Yes, I agree. That has always been the case. I would never pay market value.  That's also a good way to mitigate risk.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    I am not saying that this is absolute rule. And I am not saying that this will continue forever.  All I am saying is that this is what I'm noticing in "hot" markets as defined above.

    Considering the variables, population growth, job growth, institutional buyers, international buyers, etc. in these "hot" markets, I do not think that this trend will disappear anytime soon.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    Chris,

    If you think properties are overvalue, don't buy!  But I'm still acquiring properties for below market value that are cash-flowing.  Even if there is a drop in pricing, I'm still generating returns of over 10% from cash-flow and that works for me.  I just don't see a big drop in pricing coming to these "hot" markets.  There is strong demand and most of these market are significantly supply constrained.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    I am not saying that this is absolute rule. And I am not saying that this will continue forever.  All I am saying is that this is what I'm noticing in "hot" markets as defined above.

    Considering the variables, population growth, job growth, institutional buyers, international buyers, etc. in these "hot" markets, I do not think that this trend will disappear anytime soon.

    Population growth has been going on for, well, forever, yet somehow the Case Shiller index is flat since 1890.

    Job growth is cyclical like anything else.

    Institutional buyers in the SFH space is an untested business model, likely bound to fail at some point, returns are crappy, entire thing is only sustainable given insanely low interest rates.

    International buyers storing their wealth in magical air boxes are the greatest of greater fools I've ever seen in my lifetime by far.

    This is all the same type of stuff the experts were talking about in 2006.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    Chris,

    If you think properties are overvalue, don't buy!  But I'm still acquiring properties for below market value that are cash-flowing.  Even if there is a drop in pricing, I'm still generating returns of over 10% from cash-flow and that works for me.  I just don't see a big drop in pricing coming to these "hot" markets.  There is strong demand and most of these market are significantly supply constrained.

     So am I, but I'm not posting on BP saying "this is the time to buy" because while it may be A time to buy it sure as hell isn't THE time to buy.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Josh Caldwell:

    This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

    Josh,

    I don't think you're right about that.  With your comment, you are assuming that investors are not educated and haven't done their research. I would not assume that. 

    These markets are "hot" because they have strong population/job growth and are forecasted to continue experiencing both for the next 30 years.  Check the U.S. Census data and Bureau of Labor Statistics.  It's all there.  I suggest that you do your research. I have.

    I invest for BOTH... cash flow + appreciation.   Cash-flow may provide you income, but price appreciation can generate significant wealth.  Also, diversifying your return is an additional way to mitigate risk.

    And FYI: Pittsburgh is not ranked highly on either population or job growth, which are variables that have the greatest impact on demand and price appreciation... so, in Pittsburgh, strong price appreciation is unlikely.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y

    For various reasons, I just don't see pricing going down significantly in larger markets in TX, NC, AZ, CA and other high-population/job growth states.  There will be cycles, but I don't see pricing dropping below the level of the last bottom.  The variables driving the growth aren't changing...

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    Chris,

    If you think properties are overvalue, don't buy!  But I'm still acquiring properties for below market value that are cash-flowing.  Even if there is a drop in pricing, I'm still generating returns of over 10% from cash-flow and that works for me.  I just don't see a big drop in pricing coming to these "hot" markets.  There is strong demand and most of these market are significantly supply constrained.

     So am I, but I'm not posting on BP saying "this is the time to buy" because while it may be A time to buy it sure as hell isn't THE time to buy.

    Okay :-)  I'm in agreement with @John Thedford above, my belief is that the time to buy is always NOW, so long as you can locate deals and achieve your target return.

  • Investor · Dallas TX, United States · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Josh Caldwell:

    This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

    Josh,

    I don't think you're right about that.  With your comment, you are assuming that investors are not educated and haven't done their research. I would not assume that. 

    These markets are "hot" because they have strong population/job growth and are forecasted to continue experiencing both for the next 30 years.  Check the U.S. Census data and Bureau of Labor Statistics.  It's all there.  I suggest that you do your research. I have.

    I invest for BOTH... cash flow + appreciation.   Cash-flow may provide you income, but price appreciation can generate significant wealth.  Also, diversifying your return is an additional way to mitigate risk.

    And FYI: Pittsburgh is not ranked highly on either population or job growth, which are variables that have the greatest impact on demand and price appreciation... so, in Pittsburgh, strong price appreciation is unlikely.

    @Jon S   buying into a hot market is suicide, you are thinking of the real estate market like a stock market chart.  That is an irrational approach     The smart money in CA is buying in other states. CA is a gamble and gamblers lose in the long run.  

    In my market I can find 10% cap rates on the MLS, I can find 20% if I am willing to do a little work. Please tell me what CA market can do that?

    FYI, price appreciation is what fools look for.  Cash flow is king.  When markets correct and they will, it is the appreciation investor who goes bankrupt.  I have known too many people who have had the joyous experience of owing 800k on a 500k house or worse  They foolishly though like you think.  I have a friend who lost $300,000,000 in the last correction.  He learned his lesson quite well.

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    Chris,

    If you think properties are overvalue, don't buy!  But I'm still acquiring properties for below market value that are cash-flowing.  Even if there is a drop in pricing, I'm still generating returns of over 10% from cash-flow and that works for me.  I just don't see a big drop in pricing coming to these "hot" markets.  There is strong demand and most of these market are significantly supply constrained.

     So am I, but I'm not posting on BP saying "this is the time to buy" because while it may be A time to buy it sure as hell isn't THE time to buy.

    Okay :-)  My belief is that the time to buy is always NOW, so long as you can locate deals and achieve your target return.

     Well I never disagreed with that, I just don't like your napkin.

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Josh Caldwell:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Josh Caldwell:

    This is a fantastic time to buy real estate, but not in the hot markets.  Hot market get hot because people speculate into them and drive the prices beyond sustainable cash flow levels.  IF you invest with this model you will get you *** handed to you eventually.  Those of us who learned this lesson in 2008, invest for cash flow not appreciation. My market of Pittsburgh is a great cash flow market. Our rent to price ratio is much better than anything you will find in CA.  Find a market that looks like mine does and invest for the long term.  

    Josh,

    I don't think you're right about that.  With your comment, you are assuming that investors are not educated and haven't done their research. I would not assume that. 

    These markets are "hot" because they have strong population/job growth and are forecasted to continue experiencing both for the next 30 years.  Check the U.S. Census data and Bureau of Labor Statistics.  It's all there.  I suggest that you do your research. I have.

    I invest for BOTH... cash flow + appreciation.   Cash-flow may provide you income, but price appreciation can generate significant wealth.  Also, diversifying your return is an additional way to mitigate risk.

    And FYI: Pittsburgh is not ranked highly on either population or job growth, which are variables that have the greatest impact on demand and price appreciation... so, in Pittsburgh, strong price appreciation is unlikely.

    @Jon S   buying into a hot market is suicide, you are thinking of the real estate market like a stock market chart.  That is an irrational approach     The smart money in CA is buying in other states. CA is a gamble and gamblers lose in the long run.  

    In my market I can find 10% cap rates on the MLS, I can find 20% if I am willing to do a little work. Please tell me what CA market can do that?

    FYI, price appreciation is what fools look for.  Cash flow is king.  When markets correct and they will, it is the appreciation investor who goes bankrupt.  I have known too many people who have had the joyous experience of owing 800k on a 500k house or worse  They foolishly though like you think.  I have a friend who lost $300,000,000 in the last correction.  He learned his lesson quite well.

    Thanks. While, I don't agree, I'm focused primarily on markets outside of CA.  I think the "smart money" is acquiring deals wherever they have an edge and can execute their investment strategy, whether that's in CA or any other state.  Trust me, I know plenty of people buying locally (in the Bay) that are doing quite well and executing their investment strategies.  But, like I said, they're focused on deals with problems they can fix.

    I've got friends who've made millions in the last correction, but personally the percentage of friends that I know who made millions is much higher... so hopefully my contacts are mostly the "smart money' ;-)

  • Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    > In "hot" markets, although market cycles are continuously occurring and prices rise a fall... there is an increasing trend line and therefore the next bottom will have market prices that are higher than the last bottom.

    This is nonsense.

    I like your napkin drawing, but is it based on any actual data? Because according to the Case-Shiller index, real estate has not appreciated historically at much more than the rate of inflation.

    > Market prices rise at a faster rate than market rents, so... your ability to generate cash-flow eventually disappears.

    So what you're saying is, home prices will outpace rents, forever. Real estate will become more and more expensive until no one can afford to buy a house. It will be cheaper to rent, from a landlord, but it will also be impossible for landlords to buy rentals at any price that will allow them to turn a profit.

    Right.

    No, I am not saying that. Please read what I wrote.  Yes, it is based on over 15 years of experience investing in 5+ markets nationally.  And guess what, prices are sufficiently high in some markets making cash flow very difficult.  My point is that cash-flow gets increasingly difficult as prices increase at a faster rate than rental rates.  This is happening in many markets nationally right now.

    Right, and many of those markets are vastly overvalued and are as likely to correct as anything else that is vastly overvalued.

    Your long term diagonal trend line is overoptimistic and unsupported by historical precedent.

    Real estate does not appreciate over the long long term, nor would logic dictate that it should.

    I'll grant that certain areas do improve and therefore show an increase in intrinsic value but 1. this should be supported by incomes and 2. predicting this type of change is extremely difficult.

    Chris,

    If you think properties are overvalue, don't buy!  But I'm still acquiring properties for below market value that are cash-flowing.  Even if there is a drop in pricing, I'm still generating returns of over 10% from cash-flow and that works for me.  I just don't see a big drop in pricing coming to these "hot" markets.  There is strong demand and most of these market are significantly supply constrained.

     So am I, but I'm not posting on BP saying "this is the time to buy" because while it may be A time to buy it sure as hell isn't THE time to buy.

    Okay :-)  My belief is that the time to buy is always NOW, so long as you can locate deals and achieve your target return.

     Well I never disagreed with that, I just don't like your napkin.

    That's cool man. We can agree to disagree. I'm fine with that.

    This is just what I'm seeing in many markets nationally that I'm invested in. 

  • Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2017 · 47 posts · 80 votes
    9y

    we're only 2/3 of the way back to 2006! buy buy buy!

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